A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

Yeah, but no one is saying "Holt for Sale". Holt would be a nice throw in to sweeten a trade. or....Does anyone think Holt could net us a better RP than Abad? If so, maybe they should explore such an idea.

 

How about Holt, Owens and Abad for an even better RP'er?

[Emp9]

How about Holt, Owens and Abad for an even better RP'er?

 

I'd like to see what just Holt and Abad would net us. I'd still like to hold onto Owens. He's still pretty young and things could still "click" for him. I'd use Owens as a throw in for a SP though.

[Dojji]

How about Holt, Owens and Abad for an even better RP'er?

 

I doubt a slightly fuller bag of trash would net us much. Holt alone is the only reason anyone touches that deal right now. So just stick with him.

[Emp9]

Agreed, and trading for a starting pitcher will also help the pen in more than 2 ways:

 

1) Less inning needed by the pen

2) Adding a SP'er will force one of our other SP'ers (Pom, Buch, Wright?) to the pen.

3) An added starter in the pen allows for multiple innings pitched within games- taking stress off our late inning RP'ers.

 

Sure, everything's relative... or can be. I'm also thinking we may have to trade some of our SP to get better SP if that makes sense. For obvious reasons Price is here to stay, Porcello isn't going anywhere either. To me Buch & Pom are expendable. I love Wright and ERod if healthy, but they may be expendable in my book as well.

[Emp9]

I doubt a slightly fuller bag of trash would net us much. Holt alone is the only reason anyone touches that deal right now. So just stick with him.

 

LOL. if I could just add that it's not uncommon for RP's have up and down seasons.

[moonslav59]

Sure, everything's relative... or can be. I'm also thinking we may have to trade some of our SP to get better SP if that makes sense. For obvious reasons Price is here to stay, Porcello isn't going anywhere either. To me Buch & Pom are expendable. I love Wright and ERod if healthy, but they may be expendable in my book as well.

 

Agreed. I think I read somewhere that the CWS might take JBJ and ERod for an ace. I'm not sure I'd do that as I feel ERod may become the next Quintana.

[Spudboy]

It seems strange that he has such high value to us and nobody else.

 

He'd get way more PAs for other teams than with us.

 

We'll have Hernandez and possibly Swihart to fill his shoes on the 25 man roster- both of whom are better options at just about every position Holt plays.

I'm not expecting much in return for him, but as part of a larger package, he may save us from having to part with Moncada, Devers or Kopech. For example, maybe a team will take Swihart, Owens and Holt instead of one of our big 3. It would be worth it to me, if that were the case.

 

So Hernandez ( who I like a lot ) and Swihart ( who I really like a lot ) have the ability to play better at positions that Holt has been playing?

 

Really?

 

Holt plays all three OF positions decently if not well. Neither of the other two does even that and only Swihart has any OF experience in MLB.

 

Holt plays all four IF positions. Hernandez plays two and Swihart none.

 

Swihart does play catcher, though.

[moonslav59]

So Hernandez ( who I like a lot ) and Swihart ( who I really like a lot ) have the ability to play better at positions that Holt has been playing?

 

Really?

 

Holt plays all three OF positions decently if not well. Neither of the other two does even that and only Swihart has any OF experience in MLB.

 

Holt plays all four IF positions. Hernandez plays two and Swihart none.

 

Swihart does play catcher, though.

 

 

I meant the two combined, and since Papi and Hill are gone, we can have both on the 25 man roster.

 

Personally, I was surprised they never gave Hernadez a longer look at 3B this year. Maybe his injury was still lingering.

 

It doesn't matter that Holt plays CF or RF, since if one of those guys got hurt, Holt would play LF and Beni, Betts or JBJ would move to a new position. In fact, of the 57 OF games he started last year, 55 were in LF. (64 of 68 OF games played were in LF)

 

He played zero innings in CF this year. Now, talking LF, yes, I'll take Swihart ahead of Holt, but remember, Young is between both of them, so Holt is at best the second back-up to all OF positions. I'd put him 3rd back-up, but I won't argue with him being behind Young and ahead of Swihart.

 

At SS, Hernandez, Marrero, Martinez and Rutledge played more combined games at SS (8) than Holt's 7 (4 started). I'll take Hernandez over Holt at SS every day of the week. If Bogey got hurt, I'd even take Marrero over Holt for an extended period.

 

At 2B, is where I think Holt is best fitted, but with Pedey there, it would take an injury for Holt to play everyday, and even then, I may want Moncada or Hernandez over Holt. It's very close. The main point is, how much of a negative differential is there between Holt and Hernandez/Moncada at 2B long term or short term?

 

At 1B, Holt should never play an inning at 1B next year- same as this year. Although I would not place Hernandez ahead of Holt here, I'm okay with giving Swihart some reps at 1B or 3B this winter/spring.

 

That leaves 3B. Holt became our starting 3Bman to end the season after Pablo falter and got hurt and Shaw fell off a cliff. However, Holt's 11 starts at 3B (mostly at the end of the season) should not be viewed as him being the number 1 or 2 guy at 3B next season, even if we don't make any 3B additions in this off season. Again, my own personal (and debatable) choice would be Hernandez ahead of Holt, but I'd also put Rutledge ahead of Holt as well. Rutledge actually played as many games at 3B as Holt, and would have played more had he not gotten hurt. Sox management chose to keep playing a .577 OPS guy (Hill) over Holt for weeks and weeks. They even gave Moncada a chance before handing the job to Holt. We also may have Pablo back in the mix next spring. Travis Shaw can't be written off either. I just don't see Holt as the number 1, 2 or even 3 at 3B next year, unless we trade or cut some of these guys.

 

At summary, Holt is at best our #2 2Bman with Moncada and Hernandez right on his heels, our 3rd best 3Bman and our 2nd or 3rd best OF back-up option. I could see if this guy was clearly our best back-up at 2-3 positions, but I'm not seeing that.

 

Assuming we don't add anybody to the mix, the loss of Papi and Hill could allow us to have 2 catchers plus Swihart, Young, Hernandez and Shaw as our bench next year. Are we really significantly better with Holt over Rutledge, if he's not even going to be our second choice at any position?

 

I'm not saying It's clear that Hernandez is better than Holt, but to me, Holt has significant trade value that is worth much more than his upgrade over a Hernandez/Shaw/Rutledge/Marrero/Moncada/Travis combination.

 

Having a 3rd catcher that can play LF and maybe a corner IF spot by next year would allow us to PH for our catcher earlier and more often than with just two catchers. Swihart projects to hit better than Holt next year, and I have Hernandez pretty close offensively with Holt. Shaw vs Holt on offense is hard to call. Holt is probably better than Rutledge on offense, but I like Rutledge;'s defense at 3B better than Holt's, so the loss there should not be great.

 

 

[Wade Boggs]

Agreed. I think I read somewhere that the CWS might take JBJ and ERod for an ace. I'm not sure I'd do that as I feel ERod may become the next Quintana.

 

I'm not sure of that. He was never used in the playoffs. When they could have thrown him in there, Game 1 or 3, instead of DP in long relief. He might be. If you got a chance of getting Sale or Q.... Done deal

I like JBJ but if I can get the White Sox to give me Sale or Q..............He's going. I'll figure out the rest as we go along.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure of that. He was never used in the playoffs. When they could have thrown him in there, Game 1 or 3, instead of DP in long relief. He might be. If you got a chance of getting Sale or Q.... Done deal

I like JBJ but if I can get the White Sox to give me Sale or Q..............He's going. I'll figure out the rest as we go along.

 

I realize ERod has just teased us with his nasty stuff. He's yet to put together a long stretch of excellence. There's always some excuse: injury, tipping his pitches, overcompensating...

 

ERod does have the ability to be a Quintana starting next year, but I agree Quintana is a known commodity, and the 4th year of team control at a low cost is the clincher.

 

I'd try to avoid including ERod or Moncada with Swihart for Quintana, but I doubt Swihart, Devers and Owens gets the deal done.

[Wade Boggs]

How about Holt, Owens and Abad for an even better RP'er?

 

What kind of RP. I would think of someone in the mold of a 6th inning piece RP. Owens is a throw in, Abad has no value, Holt maybe a 7th inning RP.. Moon, the Red Sox are not high on Hernandez as you are.

[Wade Boggs]

I realize ERod has just teased us with his nasty stuff. He's yet to put together a long stretch of excellence. There's always some excuse: injury, tipping his pitches, overcompensating...

 

ERod does have the ability to be a Quintana starting next year, but I agree Quintana is a known commodity, and the 4th year of team control at a low cost is the clincher.

 

I'd try to avoid including ERod or Moncada with Swihart for Quintana, but I doubt Swihart, Devers and Owens gets the deal done.

 

If you can get them to trade Quintana for Swihart, Devers and Owens. I couldn't even say it with a straight face lol I'm in.

[moonslav59]

What kind of RP. I would think of someone in the mold of a 6th inning piece RP. Owens is a throw in, Abad has no value, Holt maybe a 7th inning RP.

 

I think Owens still has trade value. There are many teams with pretty weak pitching prospects out there. Owens would probably get a long look in ST'ing by several teams. Abad would be the guy that takes the place of the RP'er we get back. Holt is clearly the central piece to my suggested offer. The biggest problem to my suggested offer is the 3 for 1 aspect. All three would need to be on the 40 man roster. A more reasonable deal might be Holt, Owens and Noe Ramirez or Scott.

 

Moon, the Red Sox are not high on Hernandez as you are.

 

I realize that, but the real question is how much difference do they think there is between Holt and Hernandez/Rutledge/Moncada at 3B, Hernandez/Marrero at SS, Hernanez/Moncada at 2B and Young/Swihart in LF.

 

If it's not much, and if we can get something good for Holt, then I think we'll consider it.

 

Two "ifs" usually means no deal.

[moonslav59]

If you can get them to trade Quintana for Swihart, Devers and Owens. I couldn't even say it with a straight face lol I'm in.

 

It would probably not even work, if you added basabe.

[Nick]

I realize ERod has just teased us with his nasty stuff. He's yet to put together a long stretch of excellence. There's always some excuse: injury, tipping his pitches, overcompensating...

 

ERod does have the ability to be a Quintana starting next year, but I agree Quintana is a known commodity, and the 4th year of team control at a low cost is the clincher.

 

I'd try to avoid including ERod or Moncada with Swihart for Quintana, but I doubt Swihart, Devers and Owens gets the deal done.

 

Maybe more the reason we should stand pat until next summer's trade deadline....obviously there's risk that some of our players will lose value but it can also go the other direction.

[moonslav59]

Maybe more the reason we should stand pat until next summer's trade deadline....obviously there's risk that some of our players will lose value but it can also go the other direction.

 

I tend to think that at the deadline, more teams are desperate and the demands get too high.

 

I'm okay with the 6 starters we have. I wish we had a better ace, but we do have some fine starters.

 

I wouldn't be shocked, if we just add two RP'ers and a decent but not spectacular LH'd bat, and then we'll wait until the deadline to plug holes.

 

I also wouldn't be shocked, if we pulled off a blockbuster and signed someone like EE.

[S5Dewey]

I have a tough time going into a season thinking that we'll plug gaps in July. IMO the trade deadline is the time for teams who know they have a shot at it to beef up their team.

A team that waits until the deadline may find themselves out of the running by then, where if they'd filled their known gaps before the season started they could be in the thick of it - and then improve the team MORE at the deadline.

[moonslav59]

Our two biggest areas of concern, in my opinion are 3B and the bullpen.

 

 

3B: We have everybody; we have nobody.

 

Our two best prospects are likely best suited for 3B: Moncada and Devers, but neither appear ready to win the FT job on opening day.

 

We are paying Pablo $19M for 3 more years, perhaps as a platoon DH Not as a 3Bman.

 

The guy who played over 850 innings out of 1440 at 3B this year, Travis Shaw, fell off a cliff this year and is clearly not worthy of our trust as our FT 3Bman next year.

 

Then, there's Holt, and Hernandez, and Rutledge, and Marrero, and 21 year olds Dalbec and Chavis. There's even been talk of moving Bogey to 3B again by some on this site. One even suggested moving HanRam to 3B.

 

Everybody and nobody.

 

Bullpen: our pen finished the season strongly, but let's not forget how much it stank up the place for most of the year. Also, much of the reason the pen did well near the end was due to us acquiring Zeigler plus the return of Uehara and Tazawa to prior form. All three of those guys are FAs-to-be. We may bring some back- we may not. Right now, we can't really count on any of them to be back.

 

The bright side: One has to think Kimbrel will be better next year. Kelly showed signs of finding his niche as a RP'er. Ross has shown consistency over several years now. Carson Smith should return next year. Robby Scott showed signs of maybe being a nice surprise. Barnes and Hembree showed promising moments this year and are still young enough to keep improving. Abad, Noe Ramirez, Workman and Martin add institutional depth, but they really shouldn't be counted on to contribute too much. Then, there's the 6th starter that could be a big plus to the pen, even if just as an innings eater. Will it be Buch, Pom or Wright?

 

The dark side: Kimbrel may not improve. Carson Smith may not be the answer to losing Zeigler. Can Buch and Kelly really replace Uehara and Tazawa? The rest could be viewed as highly skeptical and not very promising.

 

Even if we signed Jansen or Chapman, we still might not have a plus bullpen.

 

 

The issue is that it's hard to build a pen. Most RP'ers cannot be depended on from one year to the next. The ones that are are too expensive for 60 innings of work. Even the dependable ones like Kimbrel can turn to question marks quickly. The other issue is how to repair 3B without giving up on the kids and/or Pablo & Company?

 

There doesn't seem to be an easy solution to fixing either weak link.

 

[moonslav59]

I have a tough time going into a season thinking that we'll plug gaps in July. IMO the trade deadline is the time for teams who know they have a shot at it to beef up their team.

A team that waits until the deadline may find themselves out of the running by then, where if they'd filled their known gaps before the season started they could be in the thick of it - and then improve the team MORE at the deadline.

 

I didn't mean start the year with gaps. Take this year: we used Wright to plug the hole left by ERod's injury, but we still ended up having to go to O'Sullivan, Owens & Elias for 10 starts after Kelly & Buch crapped the bed. We traded for Pom to fill the gap. We traded for Hill to fill the 3B gap. It didn't work, but the thought was there. The biggest acquisition was Zeigler, and in a way, he filled the Carson Smith gap we couldn't fill in early April, although in actuality, he filled Koji's role while he struggled and was on the DL.

 

I don't want to go into 2017 with known gaps, but with 37 guys vying for the 3B job, maybe we have to let it shake itself out, before we fill a gap there.

[moonslav59]

Fall League:

 

Moncada 6 for 14 with a 2B, HR and 5 runs scored.

 

Dubon 4 for 14 with an HR.

 

Kopech: 3 IP, 0 H, 5 Ks

 

TBall (RP): 3.1 IP, 3K, 3 BB

 

Venezuela:

 

W. Cuevas 1-0 2.25 in 3 starts

 

V. Acosta 8 for 16 with two 2B and an HR

 

[oldtimer]

Agreed. I think I read somewhere that the CWS might take JBJ and ERod for an ace. I'm not sure I'd do that as I feel ERod may become the next Quintana.

 

I agree that E-Rod is too big a price to pay as he may well morph into our #2 or #3 starter next year. Buch would be okay or Pom more reluctantly. We do have to give something to get something, but if Sale doesn't stay sound for several years and E-Rod does, it would turn into a bad trade.

[oldtimer]

Our two biggest areas of concern, in my opinion are 3B and the bullpen.

 

 

3B: We have everybody; we have nobody.

 

Our two best prospects are likely best suited for 3B: Moncada and Devers, but neither appear ready to win the FT job on opening day.

 

We are paying Pablo $19M for 3 more years, perhaps as a platoon DH Not as a 3Bman.

 

The guy who played over 850 innings out of 1440 at 3B this year, Travis Shaw, fell off a cliff this year and is clearly not worthy of our trust as our FT 3Bman next year.

 

Then, there's Holt, and Hernandez, and Rutledge, and Marrero, and 21 year olds Dalbec and Chavis. There's even been talk of moving Bogey to 3B again by some on this site. One even suggested moving HanRam to 3B.

 

Everybody and nobody.

 

Bullpen: our pen finished the season strongly, but let's not forget how much it stank up the place for most of the year. Also, much of the reason the pen did well near the end was due to us acquiring Zeigler plus the return of Uehara and Tazawa to prior form. All three of those guys are FAs-to-be. We may bring some back- we may not. Right now, we can't really count on any of them to be back.

 

The bright side: One has to think Kimbrel will be better next year. Kelly showed signs of finding his niche as a RP'er. Ross has shown consistency over several years now. Carson Smith should return next year. Robby Scott showed signs of maybe being a nice surprise. Barnes and Hembree showed promising moments this year and are still young enough to keep improving. Abad, Noe Ramirez, Workman and Martin add institutional depth, but they really shouldn't be counted on to contribute too much. Then, there's the 6th starter that could be a big plus to the pen, even if just as an innings eater. Will it be Buch, Pom or Wright?

 

The dark side: Kimbrel may not improve. Carson Smith may not be the answer to losing Zeigler. Can Buch and Kelly really replace Uehara and Tazawa? The rest could be viewed as highly skeptical and not very promising.

 

Even if we signed Jansen or Chapman, we still might not have a plus bullpen.

 

 

The issue is that it's hard to build a pen. Most RP'ers cannot be depended on from one year to the next. The ones that are are too expensive for 60 innings of work. Even the dependable ones like Kimbrel can turn to question marks quickly. The other issue is how to repair 3B without giving up on the kids and/or Pablo & Company?

 

There doesn't seem to be an easy solution to fixing either weak link.

 

 

Yes, 3rd base is the main question. I have read elsewhere that we might try to resign Ziegler. Sounds reasonable.

[moonslav59]

I agree that E-Rod is too big a price to pay as he may well morph into our #2 or #3 starter next year. Buch would be okay or Pom more reluctantly. We do have to give something to get something, but if Sale doesn't stay sound for several years and E-Rod does, it would turn into a bad trade.

 

I doubt the CWS want Buch. If they trade Q or Sale, they'd want players with 4+ years of team control not 1 or 2.

[Nick]

Yes, 3rd base is the main question. I have read elsewhere that we might try to resign Ziegler. Sounds reasonable.

 

Ziegler may be tough to sign. His family lives in Arizona. I doubt it helps that Sox GM is now in Arizona. Don't you agree?

[moonslav59]

Ziegler may be tough to sign. His family lives in Arizona. I doubt it helps that Sox GM is now in Arizona. Don't you agree?

 

I'm not sure it makes much difference. We'd have to seriously outbid AZ to get him to play so far away from home, or so it is said.

[moonslav59]

Depending on who we might add to the roster this winter, we are looking at lowering our average age by a large amount.

 

FAs or Retirees:

41 Uehara

40 Ortiz

36 Ziegler

35 Hanigan

34 Hill

31 Tazawa

 

The top five players happen to be the only Sox players over 33

Here's the rest (age as of today):

 

32 Pedroia, Young, Ramirez

31 Wright, Buchholz

30 Price. Abad

29 Sandoval

28 Kimbrel, Kelly, Holt, Holaday

27 Porcello, Pomeranz, Ross, Leon, Rutledge, Hembree, Elias, Workman, Holaday

26 Bradley, Smith, Barnes, Shaw, Scott, N Ramireez

25 Vazquez, Johnson, Marrero

24 Swihart, Jerez

23 Betts, Bogaerts, Rodriguez, Hernandez, Owens

22 Benintendi

21 Moncada

 

Non 40 man roster:

25 MArtin

24 Ysla

23 Travis

22 Dubon, T Ball, Shawaryn, V Diaz, T Lakins, J Cosart

21 Dalbec, Chatham, Ockimey, Chavis, Longhi, S Anderson

20 Kopech, Basabe,

19 Devers

18 Groome, Raudes

 

 

[bosoxmal]

Watching Miller, Lester and one or two other pitchers this post-season makes me wonder who makes the pitching decisions.

[a700hitter]

Watching Miller, Lester and one or two other pitchers this post-season makes me wonder who makes the pitching decisions.

Thanks Ben!

[moonslav59]

Watching Miller, Lester and one or two other pitchers this post-season makes me wonder who makes the pitching decisions.

 

We could have outbid for Miller. I think Lester was a lost cause, although he's making much less than Price.

[SoxnCycles]

Oh Jesus, the dead horse lives again....