Postseason Happenings 2016

[a700hitter]

this ain't soccer or football - home field for the most part means squat. Now this is a little weird since baseball has the most severe home field advantage (the last at-bat as well as parks of different shapes) but that does not make it less true. What is home field advantage? The ability to have a Game 5 or Game 7 at your house. So what has happened in the annals of deciding games this century:

 

2015: Road team won both wild card games, KC and Toronto won LDS home Game 5, Mets won LDS road Game 5 ... (home teams 2-3 overall)

2014: Royals won home wild card, Giants won road wild card, Giants won WS Game 67 on road ... (home 1-2 in season ... 3-5 overall)

2013: Rays won road wild card, Pirates won home wild card, Cardinals won home LDS Game 5 ... (home 2-1 ... 5-6 overall)

2012: Orioles, Cardinals won road wild card, Yankees won home LDS, Tigers won road LDS, Cardinals, Giants won road LDS, Giants won home LCS ... (home 2-5 ... 7-11 overall)

2011: Tigers won LDS home, Cards won LDS road, Brewers won LDS home, Cards won WS home (home 3-1 ... 10-12 overall)

2010: Rangers won LDS road (home 0-1, 10-13 overall)

2008: Rays won LCS home (home 1-0, 11-13 overall)

2007: Red Sox won LCS home (home 1-0, 12-13 overall)

2006: Cards won LCS road (home 0-1, 12-14 overall)

2005: Angels won LDS home (home 1-0, 13-14 overall)

2004: Astros won LDS road, Red Sox won LCS road, Cards won LCS home (home 1-2, 14-16 overall)

2003: Red Sox won LDS road, Cubs won LDS road, Marlins won LCS road, Yankees won LCS home (home 1-3, 15-19 overall)

2002: Twins won LDS road, Giants won LDS road, Angels won WS home (home 1-2, 16-21 overall)

2001: Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks won LDS home, Diamondbacks won WS home (home 4-0, 20-21 overall)

2000: Yankees won LDS road (home 0-1, 20-22 overall)

 

So home teams are 20-22 in deciding games ... not much of an advantage. Now this does not mean teams with home field are not more likely to win than those without (I did not test that) ... of course they are, but that is because they have better records (at least the division champs do) and thus are likely better teams in the first place.

 

Getting the team ready - healthy or whatever - trumps home field by a lot.

HFA is meaningless.

[sk7326]

it's baseball - almost no series is better than 55-45 odds in either direction ...

[SoxHop]

Xander officially got moved to the 6 spot.....

 

that's a tough call by Farrell......... he was good during the Yankee series.....

 

pitchers have started working him inside now.......

[a700hitter]

it's baseball - almost no series is better than 55-45 odds in either direction ...

That's a fairly big difference.

[Kimmi]

But a HFA, close or not.

 

Yes, there is a such thing as HFA, but it is not as important in baseball as it is in other sports. Home teams win about 54% of playoff series, but most of that advantage is due to selection bias. The home field teams win slightly more because they are the better teams, which is why they had HFA to begin with.

 

It is more important to make sure the players are healthy and well rested.

[Kimmi]

this ain't soccer or football - home field for the most part means squat. Now this is a little weird since baseball has the most severe home field advantage (the last at-bat as well as parks of different shapes) but that does not make it less true. What is home field advantage? The ability to have a Game 5 or Game 7 at your house. So what has happened in the annals of deciding games this century:

 

2015: Road team won both wild card games, KC and Toronto won LDS home Game 5, Mets won LDS road Game 5 ... (home teams 2-3 overall)

2014: Royals won home wild card, Giants won road wild card, Giants won WS Game 67 on road ... (home 1-2 in season ... 3-5 overall)

2013: Rays won road wild card, Pirates won home wild card, Cardinals won home LDS Game 5 ... (home 2-1 ... 5-6 overall)

2012: Orioles, Cardinals won road wild card, Yankees won home LDS, Tigers won road LDS, Cardinals, Giants won road LDS, Giants won home LCS ... (home 2-5 ... 7-11 overall)

2011: Tigers won LDS home, Cards won LDS road, Brewers won LDS home, Cards won WS home (home 3-1 ... 10-12 overall)

2010: Rangers won LDS road (home 0-1, 10-13 overall)

2008: Rays won LCS home (home 1-0, 11-13 overall)

2007: Red Sox won LCS home (home 1-0, 12-13 overall)

2006: Cards won LCS road (home 0-1, 12-14 overall)

2005: Angels won LDS home (home 1-0, 13-14 overall)

2004: Astros won LDS road, Red Sox won LCS road, Cards won LCS home (home 1-2, 14-16 overall)

2003: Red Sox won LDS road, Cubs won LDS road, Marlins won LCS road, Yankees won LCS home (home 1-3, 15-19 overall)

2002: Twins won LDS road, Giants won LDS road, Angels won WS home (home 1-2, 16-21 overall)

2001: Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks won LDS home, Diamondbacks won WS home (home 4-0, 20-21 overall)

2000: Yankees won LDS road (home 0-1, 20-22 overall)

 

So home teams are 20-22 in deciding games ... not much of an advantage. Now this does not mean teams with home field are not more likely to win than those without (I did not test that) ... of course they are, but that is because they have better records (at least the division champs do) and thus are likely better teams in the first place.

 

Getting the team ready - healthy or whatever - trumps home field by a lot.

 

Still my hero.

[a700hitter]

Yes, there is a such thing as HFA, but it is not as important in baseball as it is in other sports. Home teams win about 54% of playoff series, but most of that advantage is due to selection bias. The home field teams win slightly more because they are the better teams, which is why they had HFA to begin with.

 

It is more important to make sure the players are healthy and well rested.

The numbers favor the home team.

[Kimmi]

The numbers favor the home team.

 

No, the numbers favor the better regular season team.

[a700hitter]

No, the numbers favor the better regular season team.

And the numbers favor the home teams.

[sk7326]

The numbers favor the home team.

 

most of time that team is also the better one

[Kimmi]

And the numbers favor the home teams.

 

The only factor that has a strong correlation with post season success is regular season success.

[a700hitter]

The only factor that has a strong correlation with post season success is regular season success.

And if you don't get HFA it is because you don't have the better record, i.e. regular season success. You are arguing in a circle. HFA is important. You get HFA by having the better record. If you don't get HFA, it is because you don't have the better record, and the odds are against you. You can't divorce the two. Edited October 1, 2016 by a700hitter

[a700hitter]

most of time that team is also the better one

All of the time it is the better team. You need the better record to get HFA.

[User Name]

In-season additions, health, strength of schedule all matter in weighing in what the "best team" is.

[Bellhorn04]

In-season additions, health, strength of schedule all matter in weighing in what the "best team" is.

 

Nailed.

[a700hitter]

In-season additions, health, strength of schedule all matter in weighing in what the "best team" is.

But the metrics they are using is win-loss record, nothing else.

[Kimmi]

And if you don't get HFA it is because you don't have the better record, i.e. regular season success. You are arguing in a circle. HFA is important. You get HFA by having the better record. If you don't get HFA, it is because you don't have the better record, and the odds are against you. You can't divorce the two.

 

I believe you are the one arguing in a circle. You are trying to make HFA in and of itself more important than it is. It's just not.

[a700hitter]

I believe you are the one arguing in a circle. You are trying to make HFA in and of itself more important than it is. It's just not.

The stats are that the team with the HFA has done significantly better. Just the facts er the the stats maam.

[SinceYaz]

Shheeeeees ..... your thread got lost .... The end of Happy Smiley-Beni almost before it got started!

 

 

 

I take a couple days off to rebuild my laptop and HSB disappeared!

[Bellhorn04]

The stats are that the team with the HFA has done significantly better. Just the facts er the the stats maam.

 

Those stats would need to be stratified based on how big the difference between the 2 teams in W-L record.

 

What I'm really interested in is how much does HFA impact the outcome when the regular season difference between the 2 teams is small.

[Examiner]

This team is cooked for the simple reason that the bullpen is a disaster. I see no signs of hope for that changing.

 

Well, we saw some signs of it for a while, but are reverting now. This team peaked a little too soon, which was what I was afraid of. Never from opening day have I once believed in this team, they don't have what it takes, the magic is simply not there. In fact, teams that have huge winning streaks like that end up going flat more often than going on to win. It's just one more sign that they cannot be consistent. Win 11 in a row, then lose 4 out of the next 5, and it will be 5/6 if they lose today. They win 13-1 in the first game of a series, then score 3 runs combined in the last two, losing 4-2 and 2-1. The "high powered offense" is outscoring opponents at a 16-7 clip, but they are 1-2. That in a nutshell is the 2016 Red Sox. Time to watch football guys, they're done.

Edited October 2, 2016 by Examiner

[S5Dewey]

Well, we saw some signs of it for a while, but are reverting now. This team peaked a little too soon, which was what I was afraid of. Never from opening day have I once believed in this team, they don't have what it takes, the magic is simply not there. In fact, teams that have huge winning streaks like that end up going flat more often than going on to win. It's just one more sign that they cannot be consistent. Win 11 in a row, then lose 4 out of the next 5, and it will be 5/6 if they lose today. They win 13-1 in the first game of a series, then score 3 runs combined in the last two, losing 4-2 and 2-1. The "high powered offense" is outscoring opponents at a 16-7 clip, but they are 1-2. That in a nutshell is the 2016 Red Sox. Time to watch football guys, they're done.

 

Three points, and I'm not disagreeing with what your're saying, except for your last sentence.

 

1. Is it possible that you're viewpoint is colored by your never from opening day believing in this team?

 

2. This team has played well enough to win in these last two series, except for the closer. That needs to be changed, but it's not grounds to condemn the team to being done.

 

3. Baseball can be a game of streaks. Both winning streaks and losing streaks. I was thinking the same thing you were during the winning streak- that sometimes teams go flat after a streak like that. OTOH, they'd have some games to be flat in and then start playing well again. While the team isn't playing their best baseball at the moment they are playing well enough to beat the Yankees and Toronto other than, well, see my Point #1.

 

They're not done. It's now either up to John Farrell to make (or be prepared to make) the necessary bullpen change or for the offense to go back to scoring enough runs to keep our closer out of the games. Either of those can happen.

[Spudboy]

Three points, and I'm not disagreeing with what your're saying, except for your last sentence.

 

1. Is it possible that you're viewpoint is colored by your never from opening day believing in this team?

 

2. This team has played well enough to win in these last two series, except for the closer. That needs to be changed, but it's not grounds to condemn the team to being done.

 

3. Baseball can be a game of streaks. Both winning streaks and losing streaks. I was thinking the same thing you were during the winning streak- that sometimes teams go flat after a streak like that. OTOH, they'd have some games to be flat in and then start playing well again. While the team isn't playing their best baseball at the moment they are playing well enough to beat the Yankees and Toronto other than, well, see my Point #1.

 

They're not done. It's now either up to John Farrell to make (or be prepared to make) the necessary bullpen change or for the offense to go back to scoring enough runs to keep our closer out of the games. Either of those can happen.

 

Yup.

 

And as we all should know the playoffs are a crap shoot.

[S5Dewey]

Yup.

 

And as we all should know the playoffs are a crap shoot.

 

Interesting point!

 

Just a couple of weeks ago we were all optimistically saying that if the Sox could just get into the playoffs, even as a WC team, "anything can happen!".

 

Now that we've won the division and the right to call the Sox one of the best teams in the AL we're negatively saying that in the playoffs "anything can happen :(".

 

Perspective is a wonderful thing.

[Kimmi]

Those stats would need to be stratified based on how big the difference between the 2 teams in W-L record.

 

What I'm really interested in is how much does HFA impact the outcome when the regular season difference between the 2 teams is small.

 

I was going to post something about this in my response to a700, but I figured it would be falling on deaf ears. In short, with Cleveland and the Red Sox having virtually the same record, HFA will mean almost nothing.

[Kimmi]

Well, we saw some signs of it for a while, but are reverting now. This team peaked a little too soon, which was what I was afraid of. Never from opening day have I once believed in this team, they don't have what it takes, the magic is simply not there. In fact, teams that have huge winning streaks like that end up going flat more often than going on to win. It's just one more sign that they cannot be consistent. Win 11 in a row, then lose 4 out of the next 5, and it will be 5/6 if they lose today. They win 13-1 in the first game of a series, then score 3 runs combined in the last two, losing 4-2 and 2-1. The "high powered offense" is outscoring opponents at a 16-7 clip, but they are 1-2. That in a nutshell is the 2016 Red Sox. Time to watch football guys, they're done.

 

1. The 2013 Red Sox lost 3 of their last 5 games.

 

2. How a team finishes the season has no correlation to their postseason success. In other words, there is little truth to the notion of 'momentum' or lack thereof carrying into the playoffs.

 

3. I've said it a hundred times and I'll say it again. Winning by scores like 13-1 and losing by one or two runs is a sign of a good team.

[Kimmi]

Interesting point!

 

Just a couple of weeks ago we were all optimistically saying that if the Sox could just get into the playoffs, even as a WC team, "anything can happen!".

 

Now that we've won the division and the right to call the Sox one of the best teams in the AL we're negatively saying that in the playoffs "anything can happen :(".

 

Perspective is a wonderful thing.

 

Ha. I'm driving the playoff party bus with Slasher, Gronk, Papi, and Pedroia navigating. We're not stopping until Papi is wearing one more Championship ring.

 

All aboard!

[Kimmi]

It looks like the ALDS rotations are somewhat set.

 

Brian MacPherson Retweeted Jordan Bastian

 

Game 1: Bauer-Porcello

Game 2: Kluber-Price

Game 3: Tomlin-Rodriguez, probably

Game 4: Bauer-Buchholz, probably

Game 5: Kluber-Porcello

[S5Dewey]

1. The 2013 Red Sox lost 3 of their last 5 games.

 

2. How a team finishes the season has no correlation to their postseason success. In other words, there is little truth to the notion of 'momentum' or lack thereof carrying into the playoffs.

 

3. I've said it a hundred times and I'll say it again. Winning by scores like 13-1 and losing by one or two runs is a sign of a good team.

 

It's the sign of a potentially good team. It's also the sign of a team that can never actually put it all together.

 

That team that played up to its potential went on an 11 game winning streak.

That team that can never actually put it all together has now lost 2 of the last 3.

 

Let's see which one shows up later this week.

 

#Koji 4 Kloser

[Kimmi]

It's the sign of a potentially good team. It's also the sign of a team that can never actually put it all together.

 

That team that played up to its potential went on an 11 game winning streak.

That team that can never actually put it all together has now lost 2 of the last 3.

 

Let's see which one shows up later this week.

 

#Koji 4 Kloser

 

I respectfully disagree. It's the sign of a good team. Every team is going to lose some tough games. Every team is going to have streaks. The run differential tells you pretty much what you need to know about the talent of the team.