Lineup Discussions

[moonslav59]

Still lower than other top hitters on the team.

 

Not over the last 4-5 weeks, and if Betts hits like he normally does in the late season, it's not likely he will get on base less going forward.

 

Before today's 2 for 4 games by Betts, here's the numbers over the last 28 days:

 

.389 BETTS

.372 Pedey

.341 JBJ

.310 Bogey

 

July

.415 Betts

.382 HanRam

.381 Pedey

.359 Bogey

.347 Papi

 

2nd Half

.378 Pedey

.372 Betts

.345 JBJ

.328 Holt

.323 Bogey

.313 Hill

.309 Leon

.304 Shaw

.284 Ram

.278 Papi

 

Is it really a good idea to put the slumping Bogey ahead of Betts right now?

 

 

Edited August 7, 2016 by moonslav59

[devildavid]

Not over the last 4-5 weeks, and if Betts hits like he normally does in the late season, it's not likely he will get on base less going forward.

 

Before today's 2 for 4 games by Betts, here's the numbers over the last 28 days:

 

.389 BETTS

.372 Pedey

.341 JBJ

.310 Bogey

 

July

.415 Betts

.382 HanRam

.381 Pedey

.359 Bogey

.347 Papi

 

Is it really a good idea to put the slumping Bogey ahead of Betts right now?

 

 

 

Yes. And it was a good idea at the beginning of the season. Season long averages are what matters in evaluating hitters. 2015 indicated that Mookie was a cleanup type hitter. That season, 14 of his 18 HRs were solo shots. The evidence is there. There is great potential to provide him with the opportunity to use his power to drive in more runs by batting him after other top OBP hitters on the team.

[moonslav59]

I'm not against the idea of batting Betts 3rd, but not because of his OBP disparity.

 

I actually wanted Papi up 3rd, but that's another story, and now he's not really that hot either.

 

At the start of the year, I suggested:

 

1) Betts (I thought his OBP would improve.)

2) Bogey (I suspected his power increasing.)

3) Papi (I like putting the best all around hitter up 3rd. I can see the argument for Betts here.)

4) Pedroia (Flip Pedey & Papi vs LHPs)

5) JBJ

6) Han Ram (Flip HanRam and JBJ vs LHPs)

7) Shaw

8) Young/Swi

9) Vaz/Swi

 

I was okay with...

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) Papi

5) HanRam

6) JBJ

7) Shaw

8) Young/Swi

9) Vaz/Swi

 

 

 

[devildavid]

I'm not against the idea of batting Betts 3rd, but not because of his OBP disparity.

 

I actually wanted Papi up 3rd, but that's another story, and now he's not really that hot either.

 

At the start of the year, I suggested:

 

1) Betts (I thought his OBP would improve.)

2) Bogey (I suspected his power increasing.)

3) Papi (I like putting the best all around hitter up 3rd. I can see the argument for Betts here.)

4) Pedroia (Flip Pedey & Papi vs LHPs)

5) JBJ

6) Han Ram (Flip HanRam and JBJ vs LHPs)

7) Shaw

8) Young/Swi

9) Vaz/Swi

 

I was okay with...

1) Bogey

2) Pedey

3) Betts

4) Papi

5) HanRam

6) JBJ

7) Shaw

8) Young/Swi

9) Vaz/Swi

 

 

 

 

Many here argue not to touch the batting order because it is working. It appears you agree that Betts might work out better in the number 3 slot. Most everyone else gets all up in arms about that. I just think you should make minor adjustments as you get a better picture of the stengths and weaknesses of each hitter. I never would try to adjust for hot and cold streaks because by the time you make a move the streak is over. You have to try a lineup in the long term to see how it works out. The top 4 spots should be your best hitters, but you should consider both OBP and SLG when creating the top part of the order.

[Bellhorn04]

The offense has been struggling lately. In 8 of the last 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less. So it may be time to make a change.

 

But I see no reason to think that having Mookie in the leadoff spot has impaired our run-scoring. He leads the team in runs scored with 85 and he's second in RBI with 73. He's scoring runs and driving them in, the best of both worlds. And I don't really like the idea of reducing his plate appearances.

 

There's no hard cold empirical evidence that we would have scored more runs if we swapped Betts and Pedroia or Betts and Bogey - none that I'm aware of, anyway.

[Kimmi]

Many here argue not to touch the batting order because it is working. It appears you agree that Betts might work out better in the number 3 slot. Most everyone else gets all up in arms about that. I just think you should make minor adjustments as you get a better picture of the stengths and weaknesses of each hitter. I never would try to adjust for hot and cold streaks because by the time you make a move the streak is over. You have to try a lineup in the long term to see how it works out. The top 4 spots should be your best hitters, but you should consider both OBP and SLG when creating the top part of the order.

 

I don't disagree with most of what you're saying regarding line up construction. The line up that we currently have is not 'optimal'. That said, the bottom line is that line up changes really do not make much of a difference. You can do more damage than good by taking players out of their comfort zones, hence the 'if it ain't broke' mantra.

 

Now, it's quite possible that Mookie will thrive hitting 3rd. It's also possible that he won't. It's also possible that Pedroia, or whoever else is moved to the leadoff spot, will struggle.

 

Farrell has a better feel for this than any of us do, and it seems like he is considering the change. We may get a chance to see how it works out.

[Kimmi]

The offense has been struggling lately. In 8 of the last 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less. So it may be time to make a change.

 

But I see no reason to think that having Mookie in the leadoff spot has impaired our run-scoring. He leads the team in runs scored with 85 and he's second in RBI with 73. He's scoring runs and driving them in, the best of both worlds. And I don't really like the idea of reducing his plate appearances.

 

There's no hard cold empirical evidence that we would have scored more runs if we swapped Betts and Pedroia or Betts and Bogey - none that I'm aware of, anyway.

 

I can agree with the idea that it might be time for a change due to the fact that our offense has struggled, to shake things up so to speak. I have no problem with moving a struggling hitter down in the order to take some pressure off, for instance.

 

But outside of that, making nickel and dime changes to the line up just because someone presents better in another slot is unnecessary.

[devildavid]

The offense has been struggling lately. In 8 of the last 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less. So it may be time to make a change.

 

But I see no reason to think that having Mookie in the leadoff spot has impaired our run-scoring. He leads the team in runs scored with 85 and he's second in RBI with 73. He's scoring runs and driving them in, the best of both worlds. And I don't really like the idea of reducing his plate appearances.

 

There's no hard cold empirical evidence that we would have scored more runs if we swapped Betts and Pedroia or Betts and Bogey - none that I'm aware of, anyway.

 

How about the number of solo HRs Betts has hit. With better hitters in front of him that would likely change to more multiple RBI HRs. It would certainly increase the odds of it happening.

[Bellhorn04]

How about the number of solo HRs Betts has hit. With better hitters in front of him that would likely change to more multiple RBI HRs. It would certainly increase the odds of it happening.

 

Yes, this is possible.

 

Now 6 of his solo HRs have led off games, and I think those have to be put in a separate category. A leadoff homer is a nice little weapon, especially when you consider the stats on what % of games are won by the team that scores first. You may also have to look at the circumstances that contribute to leadoff homers-the pitcher is not really into his rhythm yet etc.

[User Name]

^Logic!

[Wade Boggs]

I have been reading that Farrell might take Mookie out of the lead off spot and hit him third , and move Pedy up there. I think that would be a huge mistake. I don't have all the stats at my fingertips like you all do. I would leave Mookie right where he is. It's just not about speed, it's the little things like the pitchers trying to hold him on. Just going from first to third on a single, scoring from first on a double. I would leave the top 5 of the line- up alone. I understand Pedy's bangs into a lot of DP's but I still would not do it.

[moonslav59]

The offense has been struggling lately. In 8 of the last 13 games they've scored 3 runs or less. So it may be time to make a change.

 

This happens just about every west coast trip we make. Maybe we are reading too much into this "slump".

[moonslav59]

Many here argue not to touch the batting order because it is working. It appears you agree that Betts might work out better in the number 3 slot. Most everyone else gets all up in arms about that. I just think you should make minor adjustments as you get a better picture of the stengths and weaknesses of each hitter. I never would try to adjust for hot and cold streaks because by the time you make a move the streak is over. You have to try a lineup in the long term to see how it works out. The top 4 spots should be your best hitters, but you should consider both OBP and SLG when creating the top part of the order.

 

If you go by long term or seasonal numbers, and you want your best overall hitter (OBP abd SLG) to bat third, it wouldn't be Betts. It would be Ortiz. Based on this year, last year or a 3 or 5 year average, it would always be Papi.

 

2016:

OBP SLG Player

395 617 Ortiz

350 546 Betts

370 524 JBJ

374 468 Bogey

370 444 Pedey

351 445 Ramirez

327 467 Shaw

 

2015-2016 Combined

OBP SLG

374 579 Ortiz

357 514 JBJ

345 508 Betts

363 442 Pedey

363 441 Bogey

327 474 Shaw

321 436 Ram

342 381 Holt

 

One could even argue JBJ should bat 3rd (or 4th with Papi 3rd).

 

If you want to put extra emphasis on OBP for your 1 & 2 hitters, then yes, Betts does not belong 1 or 2 based on OBP in 2016 or 2015-2016 combined, but since we will never bat Papi 1st or 2nd, and since JBJ's SLG is too high to bat 1 or 2 as well, we basically have 3 guys well suited to bat 3rd but not 1 or 2.

 

Bogey and Pedey both have nice OBPs, so I can see the argument for batting them 1-2. I'd be okay with this, as I have said before, but then we have our best 3 overall hitters batting 3-4-5 and losing valuable PAs, especially the guy batting 5th (JBJ).

 

To me, the biggest issue with out line-up all year was keeping JBJ down in the line-up and keeping HanRam batting 5tf for so long. The guy is last in XBHs out of our top 8 hitters.

 

62 Ortiz

59 Betts

49 JBJ

43 Shaw

39 Bogey

37 Pedey

35 Ramirez

 

If you include 2015, HanRam looks even worse, especially vs RHPs.

 

My own theories on line-up construction often goes against some traditional norms. I'm not so big on the lefty-righty-lefty theory. I'm not afraid to jumble the line-ups based on splits, but I do respect players' wishes to remain somewhat constant in their slot.

 

2015-2016 Splits

vs RHPs

OBP SLG

403 643 Ortiz

350 539 JBJ

347 510 Betts

364 453 Pedey

341 463 Shaw

348 434 Bogey

323 404 Swihart

333 388 Holt

312 408 Ramirez

255 284 Vazquez

 

vs LHPs

404 638 Young

411 464 Bogey

345 512 Ramirez

337 504 Betts

373 456 JBJ

293 503 Shaw

361 406 Pedey

300 428 Ortiz

371 356 Holt

 

Going just by the over all numbers and splits, in theory only, Papi should be dropped down vs LHPs (or even rested vs tough ones), JBJ drops his power vs LHPs but not his OBP, and Bogey should be dropped vs RHPs. HanRam should also be dropped vs righties.

 

Maybe something like this based only on almost only numbers (NOT my choice)....

 

Vs RHPs:

1) Bogey (despite his .348 OBP)

2) Pedey

3) Ortiz

4) JBJ

5) Betts

6) Shaw

7) Leon/Swihart

8) Holt

9) Ramirez

 

vs LHPs

1) Bogey

2) JBJ

3) Betts

4) Ramirez

5) Young

6) Pedey

7) Ortiz

8) Shaw

9) Leon/Vaz

 

Now, obviously Papi is not going to bat 7th, but placing him 3rd vs RHPs and 5th vs LHPs is not a bad idea.

 

JBJ's numbers are odd. He looks to be a great 3-4 hitter vs RHPs and a great 1-2 hitter vs LHPs. I'm not sure if that is his true MO.

 

I might go with something like this...

....vs RHPs....vs LHPs

1) Bogey

2) Pedey JBJ

3) Betts

4) Ortiz Ram

5) JBJ Ortiz

6) Shaw Pedey

7) Ram Young

8) Leon Shaw

9) Beni Leon

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

You do not want your best overall hitter batting 3rd. You want your 3 best hitters batting 1st, 2nd, and 4th OBP being more important for #1 and #2, and slugging being more important for #4.

[Jasonbay44]

I have been reading that Farrell might take Mookie out of the lead off spot and hit him third , and move Pedy up there. I think that would be a huge mistake. I don't have all the stats at my fingertips like you all do. I would leave Mookie right where he is. It's just not about speed, it's the little things like the pitchers trying to hold him on. Just going from first to third on a single, scoring from first on a double. I would leave the top 5 of the line- up alone. I understand Pedy's bangs into a lot of DP's but I still would not do it.

I agree. Mookie creates a lot of runs with his speed having him get the most AB's on the team is not a bad thing at all.

[moonslav59]

You do not want your best overall hitter batting 3rd. You want your 3 best hitters batting 1st, 2nd, and 4th OBP being more important for #1 and #2, and slugging being more important for #4.

 

I know the numbers show the 5th batter is most important, but I still like my best overall (BBP + SLG) up 3rd. He can drive in runs or get on base for the 4/5 hitters.

[Kimmi]

I know the numbers show the 5th batter is most important, but I still like my best overall (BBP + SLG) up 3rd. He can drive in runs or get on base for the 4/5 hitters.

 

I know that you've been adamant about putting the best hitter 3rd. I respectively disagree though.

[moonslav59]

I know that you've been adamant about putting the best hitter 3rd. I respectively disagree though.

 

I have no issues with those that disagree with my philosophy of the best up third. Someone once showed how the 5th hitter is most important, while someone else showed that statistically, juggling the line-up hardly matters.

 

In general, (there are exceptions to every guideline) I like the best OPS guy up 3rd, but he must have a decent SLG. The 4th hitter should have a good SLG (maybe better than 3, but certaonly not a better OBP and SLG). The highest OBP guys after the 3rd slot hitter is placed should, of course, go 1-2.

 

If I followed this philosophy to the letter, Papi would go 3rd and Betts 4th with Bogey/Pedey going 1-2, but then there's JBJ who could be viewed as close to our best over-all hitter as of the last 365 days, if you value OBP more than SLG. He's left out of the top 5. Hitting him 5th would make that other guy happy, I guess.

 

Last 365 days

OBP SLG

395 617 Ortiz

350 546 Betts

370 524 JBJ

374 468 Bogey

370 444 Pedey

351 445 Ramirez

327 467 Shaw

326 387 Holt

 

If you go Pedey, Bogey, Betts, Papi, JBJ, you'll really get the lefty-righty alternating crowd all upset.

 

I'd be fine with that line-up though. I might flip Papi?Betts vs RHPs.

[Dalas21000]

Would Someone agree with me that Travis Shaw should be starting at 1B?.....There are plenty of other flaws that need to be fixed but can we at least start here??? Btw why is Pedroia batting 4th and Bradley 2nd????wow

[Jasonbay44]

And do what with Hanley exactly?

[sk7326]

I have no issues with those that disagree with my philosophy of the best up third. Someone once showed how the 5th hitter is most important, while someone else showed that statistically, juggling the line-up hardly matters.

 

In general, (there are exceptions to every guideline) I like the best OPS guy up 3rd, but he must have a decent SLG. The 4th hitter should have a good SLG (maybe better than 3, but certaonly not a better OBP and SLG). The highest OBP guys after the 3rd slot hitter is placed should, of course, go 1-2.

 

If I followed this philosophy to the letter, Papi would go 3rd and Betts 4th with Bogey/Pedey going 1-2, but then there's JBJ who could be viewed as close to our best over-all hitter as of the last 365 days, if you value OBP more than SLG. He's left out of the top 5. Hitting him 5th would make that other guy happy, I guess.

 

Last 365 days

OBP SLG

395 617 Ortiz

350 546 Betts

370 524 JBJ

374 468 Bogey

370 444 Pedey

351 445 Ramirez

327 467 Shaw

326 387 Holt

 

If you go Pedey, Bogey, Betts, Papi, JBJ, you'll really get the lefty-righty alternating crowd all upset.

 

I'd be fine with that line-up though. I might flip Papi?Betts vs RHPs.

 

The data favors the best hitter batting 2nd

[moonslav59]

HanRam is better than Holt- that's why.

[moonslav59]

Next year, we may see Moncada at 3B, Shaw at 1B and HanRam at DH, but Holt is a worse hitter than HanRam and a worse fielding 3Bman than Shaw (debatable).

[moonslav59]

So, put Papi up second?

 

Interesting to see JBJ up second tonight.

 

If Beni or Moncada can develop into an OBP machine, our roster construction of the future would be a lot easier.

[Dalas21000]

HanRam can either play LF or alternate with the Rookie or sit the bench as far as I'm concerned....Hill should be playing 3rd....Leon should be catching as much as possible....Either way, we still need a new manager as well....With Buccholz in the pen...I probably would have pinchhit for Price earlier in the game(the inning he grounded out, just before LA got all their runs)

[Dalas21000]

Farrell is still too passive

[Wade Boggs]

Agree Moon. Well said.

[mvp 78]

As my daughter would say: nopey, don't like it.

[devildavid]

I agree. Mookie creates a lot of runs with his speed having him get the most AB's on the team is not a bad thing at all.

 

Is there a stat that shows how speed creates runs? Of course you have to get on base first.

[moonslav59]

Is there a stat that shows how speed creates runs? Of course you have to get on base first.

 

fangraphs has a baserunning number as part of their WAR calculation. It's on their "value page".

 

6.5 Betts

5.4 Bogey

5.4 JBJ

1.8 Holt

1.3 Hernandez

1.1 Swihart

0.3 Young

0.2 Castillo, Rutledge & Hill

0.1 Marrero & Martinez

o.o Everyone not listed here

-0.1 Hanigan

-0.3 LaMarre

-0.5 Shaw

-0.9 Vaz & Ram

-4.7 Pedey (People want him leading off.)

-6.4 Ortiz (Says his feet feel fine now.)