Red Sox Acquire Drew Pomeranz

[Jack Flap]

Acquiring SP'ers is almost always easier and cheaper during the winter. There are more choices (FA & trades), and some can be acquired without losing a top prospect like Espinoza. In fact, Pomeranz could have been acquired last winter without losing Espi.

 

Over the winter we probably could have had Pomeranz for very little. San Diego got him for Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski, and in 6 months turned that into a top 15-20 prospect in the game. If I was a Padres fan, I'd be thrilled with that.

[Bellhorn04]

There were guys like Pomerarnz around, oh wait, Pomeranz himself was around last winter.

 

In a thin market, Pomeranz's value escalated enormously because of what appears to be a breakout season. This is not new or surprising.

[moonslav59]

In a thin market, Pomeranz's value escalated enormously because of what appears to be a breakout season. This is not new or surprising.

 

Yes, it does happen, but doesn't that concern you a little bit?

 

That a 17 starts sample size of a pitcher who has been in MLB for 6 years while playing for a losing team in a division of huge ball parks has his stock rise so quickly and highly?

 

Pomeranz has had a couple injuries and spent significant time in the minors over the past 3 years-- a much larger sample size.

 

I realize there is a long history of pitchers "breaking out" and that he has developed a third pitch. I can see a lot of value in Pomeranz. I'm much more confident in him as our 4th starter than all our 4-8th starters combined. The 2.4 years of control is very useful, especially when you consider the low financial cost going forward and so many big holes to fill this winter (Papi, Uehara & Taz).

 

I'm just pointing out that there is also a long history of mediocre pitchers having a 17 game stretch of greatness, or even a 250 IP stretch spread over 2-3 years, who end up fizzling out. I also realize Espi was a gamble/risk with more team control and much higher upside, but so far away from the bigs, that his value was hard to quantify.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, it does happen, but doesn't that concern you a little bit?

 

That a 17 starts sample size of a pitcher who has been in MLB for 6 years while playing for a losing team in a division of huge ball parks has his stock rise so quickly and highly?

 

Pomeranz has had a couple injuries and spent significant time in the minors over the past 3 years-- a much larger sample size.

 

I realize there is a long history of pitchers "breaking out" and that he has developed a third pitch. I can see a lot of value in Pomeranz. I'm much more confident in him as our 4th starter than all our 4-8th starters combined. The 2.4 years of control is very useful, especially when you consider the low financial cost going forward and so many big holes to fill this winter (Papi, Uehara & Taz).

 

I'm just pointing out that there is also a long history of mediocre pitchers having a 17 game stretch of greatness, or even a 250 IP stretch spread over 2-3 years, who end up fizzling out. I also realize Espi was a gamble/risk with more team control and much higher upside, but so far away from the bigs, that his value was hard to quantify.

 

I don't think anyone would disagree with any of this.

[moonslav59]

But haven't you also said:

 

1) You liked the deal for Kelly.

2) You liked the exercise of Buch's option.

 

1) I never have claimed to be an expert or better than Sox management. I point out when I'm wrong, and I try not to gloat when I'm right.

2) I liked getting Kelly, but pointed out that I would have preferred a "longer view" like the Miller for ERod deal.

3) I wanted the Buch option taken in order to trade him, so I think your #2 statement is a bit misleading.

4) I also said I thought we should have moved Kelly and/or Buch to the pen over the winter- possibly as a closer or a closer in waiting/training.

[Dojji]

Yes, it does happen, but doesn't that concern you a little bit?

 

Not particularly, but then I don't expect DD to be Madame Cleo.

 

If the team had acquired Pomeranz in the offseason, it would have been at the expense of Steven Wright's spot in the rotation or, alternatively is signed as a swingman so just bear that in mind. With attitudes as they were on the first of April, Pomeranz replaces Wright or goes into the bullpen. Until we knew that Kelly and Buchholz were not about to live up to last year's illusion of progress, their spots in the rotation were pretty secure, and Wright was considered the last man in the rotation.

 

The fact of the matter is that the Padres are being rewarded for taking a risk that a big competitive market may not have taken, and proved that Pomeranz was worth paying a premium for, so a premium was paid. If he was on this team, it's nowhere near certain the same risk would have even been taken.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone would disagree with any of this.

 

Look, I get the position of those who like or love this trade. We almost certainly got better right away, and the 2.4 years should be a very big plus.

 

I just tend to take a longer look. I've been a Sox fan since 1970. I've lived the heartache. I used to proclaim that I's take 20 last place finishes for just one ring season. That's an "immediate gratification" position to hold, and I'm not trying to say the Pomeranz trade is just that. I'm super happy we didn't overpay for a 2 month rental.

 

I have been very excited by our farm system and the long term outlook of my team, however, if anyone who knows me well, knows that I am not against trading youth or prospects. I probably have suggested more trades or floated trade ideas as much or more than anyone else I know- most of which involving top prospects or packages involving one or several top prospects. I've suggest trading various combinations of Swihart, Devers, Margot, Guerra and Kopech more than I bitched about the Pablo/HanRam and CC signings combined, but always for more of a sure bet SP'er with 3+ years of team control.

 

I'm not distraught over this trade. I know you have to give to get, but I had very high hopes for Espi, and I didn't mind waiting to see it happen.

[bosoxmal]

We could have had Rich Hill, too! For NO prospects. Well, he might still do us some good. He pitches against Toronto this afternoon.

[Dojji]

Yeah not signing Hill had conseuqences, and if you want to know who's responsible for us eating a faceful of those consequences, you can thank the Bastard Batallion, especially Messrs. Buchholz, Kelly and Rodriguez.

[Jack Flap]

Reading between the lines of DD's statements the other night, the asking price for Hill and other rental types on the market was extreme, so he moved on. I'm not sure I'd bet on another pitching acquisition at this point, unless Eduardo craps the bed again between now and the deadline. Clearly they're hoping he can nail down the #5 job going forward.

[Dojji]

I'll be honest, I'd rather move an 18 year old A ball guy to help us for the next 2-3 years, then trade lesser talent for half a year's rental. Pomeranz, if he's any good at all, will be helping us compete during a period of time when we have a lot of young highly competitive talent both coming up the pike, and already here. He lines up with our existing windows. if you needed to get a guy anyway, lining up our interests with both the immediate and the intermediate term, with a guy who's got some talent

[Kimmi]

I'm a little late getting to this party. I can't believe there are almost 500 posts on this topic in 3 days. There's really not much to say that hasn't already been said. Good arguments on both sides.

 

We paid a steep price, but on the whole, I like this deal. There are some valid concerns, but our team is better than it was before the trade. Pomeranz, at the very least, should be able to stabilize the bottom part of the rotation.

 

Additionally, the trade should be an emotional boost to the team. The FO has sent a clear message to the players that they are all in. I will hand it to Dombrowski - he doesn't mess around.

 

I will echo the concerns about what Dombrowski might do to our farm system. At this point, it is still in good shape. However, Dombrowski cannot continue to overpay and trade away our prospects with a 'win now' mentality.

[Kimmi]

I'll be honest, I'd rather move an 18 year old A ball guy to help us for the next 2-3 years, then trade lesser talent for half a year's rental. Pomeranz, if he's any good at all, will be helping us compete during a period of time when we have a lot of young highly competitive talent both coming up the pike, and already here. He lines up with our existing windows. if you needed to get a guy anyway, lining up our interests with both the immediate and the intermediate term, with a guy who's got some talent

 

There is something very comforting about knowing that 4/5 of our rotation is set for the next 2 years. If ERod can step it up, make it 5/5.

[Kimmi]

@ MVP - I don't think you're allowed to trash Fangraphs, then quote a couple of articles from them when they support your view.

 

I'm pretty sure you broke a law.

 

However, if you're ready to join the Fangraphs bandwagon, I welcome you with open arms.

[FredLynn]

Yes, it does happen, but doesn't that concern you a little bit?

 

That a 17 starts sample size of a pitcher who has been in MLB for 6 years while playing for a losing team in a division of huge ball parks has his stock rise so quickly and highly?

 

Pomeranz has had a couple injuries and spent significant time in the minors over the past 3 years-- a much larger sample size.

 

I realize there is a long history of pitchers "breaking out" and that he has developed a third pitch. I can see a lot of value in Pomeranz. I'm much more confident in him as our 4th starter than all our 4-8th starters combined. The 2.4 years of control is very useful, especially when you consider the low financial cost going forward and so many big holes to fill this winter (Papi, Uehara & Taz).

 

I'm just pointing out that there is also a long history of mediocre pitchers having a 17 game stretch of greatness, or even a 250 IP stretch spread over 2-3 years, who end up fizzling out. I also realize Espi was a gamble/risk with more team control and much higher upside, but so far away from the bigs, that his value was hard to quantify.

 

I am having a hard time understanding your insistence that he has been very good for only half a season. The fact of the matter is, he has been above average to excellent for two and a half years running: ERA +: 159/108/161. Even if you think he is only an average pitcher, something these statistics show otherwise, its an upgrade over who our #4-5 SPs are now. And this team was sorely in need of an upgrade in that department. What Espinoza becomes or doesn't become is unknown. He is an 18 year old who isn't even pitching well in A ball right now.

[Nick]

Ultimate goal for any organization is to have an opportunity to compete in the World Series.

 

Timing is everything. On offensive side, we have a young core group of Betts, Bogaertz and Bradley to build a team around. Pedey is in the mix also. Shaw can be but he has to hit like he did in April/May and not June. Hanley is with us for 3 more years. We have several young candidates to fill out the roster nicely for several years....Moncada, Benintendi, Swihart, Devers, Vazquez.

 

Ortiz loss will be immense but it can be lessened. Going forward, Sox offense looks to be a capable World Series challanger.

 

At some point, if not today, E Rod will be a major league pitcher, or at least that's what the FO believes.

 

Even with opt out clause, Price will be with the Sox for awhile. Porcello has three more years after this season. Pomeranz is not going to fade (it would be a shocker to many, including DD) and he's with us for 2 more years. There's no reason,if he performs as expected, to think that Sox won't extend him. Steven Wright just needs to stay healthy.

 

This is not a bad starting point. Surpluses will become abundantly clear and they can be packaged to acquire better players, upgrading any pitchers or position players. We don't need to make any rash player movements right now (unless due to injuries).

 

The goal is to collect enough talent to overcome daily grind, slumps and injuries.

 

I think we have the right guy (DD) to get the job done.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Nick

[Kimmi]

Ultimate goal for any organization is to have an opportunity to compete in the World Series.

 

Timing is everything. On offensive side, we have a young core group of Betts, Bogaertz and Bradley to build a team around. Pedey is in the mix also. Shaw can be but he has to hit like he did in April/May and not June. Hanley is with us for 3 more years. We have several young candidates to fill out the roster nicely for several years....Moncada, Benintendi, Swihart, Devers, Vazquez.

 

Ortiz loss will be immense but it can be lessened. Going forward, Sox offense looks to be a capable World Series challanger.

 

At some point, if not today, E Rod will be a major league pitcher, or at least that's what the FO believes.

 

Even with opt out clause, Price will be with the Sox for awhile. Porcello has three more years after this season. Pomeranz is not going to fade (it would be a shocker to many, including DD) and he's with us for 2 more years. There's no reason,if he performs as expected, to think that Sox won't extend him. Steven Wright just needs to stay healthy.

 

This is not a bad starting point. Surpluses will become abundantly clear and they can be packaged to acquire better players, upgrading any pitchers or position players. We don't need to make any rash player movements right now (unless due to injuries).

 

The goal is to collect enough talent to overcome daily grind, slumps and injuries.

 

I think we have the right guy (DD) to get the job done.

 

IMO, a successful GM can balance the short term goals with the long term goals. If I'm understanding your 'timing is everything' statement, it sounds like you think the Sox have to strike now before the opportunity is lost?

 

I don't think a team should ever mortgage its future or its farm with a win now at any cost philosophy. Selling the farm (which hasn't happened yet) to win a championship now guarantees nothing for this year (or the next). And then you're left with a bleak future.

 

As I said, I like the trade overall. If the Sox win a WS as a result of it, then the trade will have been worth it, no matter how good Espinoza becomes.

[Nick]

No....I'm saying you begin to gather pieces for lengthy chase for multiple divisional championships....I think we're doing it.

 

We are pretty well set for time being...I think Pomeranz move was necessary and a good one. You always have to give up something of value.

 

Many pieces are in place, don't you think? We don't need to raid the farm system and empty it.

[Jack Flap]

I haven't seen this posted before - apologies if it has - but here's Brian Bannister's thoughts on Pomeranz:

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/john-tomase/2016/07/16/concerned-about-drew-pomeranzs-red-flags-brian

 

(I know, it's Tomase, but pretty good stuff here actually.)

 

Of course, he's a team employee, and what else is he supposed to say -- "Ehhh, yeah, not really sold on this guy myself"? -- but this does add to my (growing) hope that Pomeranz's 2016 performance is the real thing and not just a flash in the pan.

[Kimmi]

No....I'm saying you begin to gather pieces for lengthy chase for multiple divisional championships....I think we're doing it.

 

We are pretty well set for time being...I think Pomeranz move was necessary and a good one. You always have to give up something of value.

 

Many pieces are in place, don't you think? We don't need to raid the farm system and empty it.

 

Agreed. Dombrowski has done a good job with his midseason acquisitions. The team should be set for the foreseeable future.

 

As long as Dombrowski does not continue to empty the farm, I'm good.

[Kimmi]

Just a random comment:

 

ERA- is a better stat to use than ERA+.

[Nick]

I haven't seen this posted before - apologies if it has - but here's Brian Bannister's thoughts on Pomeranz:

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/john-tomase/2016/07/16/concerned-about-drew-pomeranzs-red-flags-brian

 

(I know, it's Tomase, but pretty good stuff here actually.)

 

Of course, he's a team employee, and what else is he supposed to say -- "Ehhh, yeah, not really sold on this guy myself"? -- but this does add to my (growing) hope that Pomeranz's 2016 performance is the real thing and not just a flash in the pan.

 

I wish they'd drill in and come up with different set of numbers for different pitches....vs fastball, vs cutter/slider, etc...anyone know if there's one somewhere (averages for batted balls in play)?

[moonslav59]

Not particularly, but then I don't expect DD to be Madame Cleo.

 

If the team had acquired Pomeranz in the offseason, it would have been at the expense of Steven Wright's spot in the rotation or, alternatively is signed as a swingman so just bear that in mind. With attitudes as they were on the first of April, Pomeranz replaces Wright or goes into the bullpen. Until we knew that Kelly and Buchholz were not about to live up to last year's illusion of progress, their spots in the rotation were pretty secure, and Wright was considered the last man in the rotation.

 

The fact of the matter is that the Padres are being rewarded for taking a risk that a big competitive market may not have taken, and proved that Pomeranz was worth paying a premium for, so a premium was paid. If he was on this team, it's nowhere near certain the same risk would have even been taken.

 

Getting Pomeranz would not mean we'd have had to have dumped Wright. There was plenty of room for both. Even O'Sullivan got a shot!

[moonslav59]

Yeah not signing Hill had conseuqences, and if you want to know who's responsible for us eating a faceful of those consequences, you can thank the Bastard Batallion, especially Messrs. Buchholz, Kelly and Rodriguez.

 

DD made that call, not Buch, Kelly and ERod.

[Nick]

I haven't seen this posted before - apologies if it has - but here's Brian Bannister's thoughts on Pomeranz:

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/john-tomase/2016/07/16/concerned-about-drew-pomeranzs-red-flags-brian

 

(I know, it's Tomase, but pretty good stuff here actually.)

 

Of course, he's a team employee, and what else is he supposed to say -- "Ehhh, yeah, not really sold on this guy myself"? -- but this does add to my (growing) hope that Pomeranz's 2016 performance is the real thing and not just a flash in the pan.

 

The assistant Red Sox pitching coach has been watching Pomeranz since the start of the season, and he believes the All-Star left-hander is the real deal.

 

"He went from being a two-pitch pitcher, which limits your viability as a starter," Bannister said before the Red Sox beat the Yankees on Friday night. "He added a third pitch, which got him over the hump and it's a quality third pitch."

 

What about E Rod?

[moonslav59]

I am having a hard time understanding your insistence that he has been very good for only half a season. The fact of the matter is, he has been above average to excellent for two and a half years running: ERA +: 159/108/161. Even if you think he is only an average pitcher, something these statistics show otherwise, its an upgrade over who our #4-5 SPs are now. And this team was sorely in need of an upgrade in that department. What Espinoza becomes or doesn't become is unknown. He is an 18 year old who isn't even pitching well in A ball right now.

 

If he was doing as well as you say, why was he in the minors so much over the prior 3 years?

 

Buch has given us plenty of great half seasons over the last 6-7 years, but nobody is praising him, and he put up equal numbers in 17 starts last year.

 

I like Pomeranz, and I think he'll do well. I'm just pointing out that he has had many issues recently, and the sample size is small.

 

Plus, I disagree on Espi. Within the context of where he is and who he's facing, he's doing well- so well that his stock has risen this year.

[moonslav59]

Just a random comment:

 

ERA- is a better stat to use than ERA+.

 

Agreed.

[FredLynn]

If he was doing as well as you say, why was he in the minors so much over the prior 3 years?

 

Buch has given us plenty of great half seasons over the last 6-7 years, but nobody is praising him, and he put up equal numbers in 17 starts last year.

 

I like Pomeranz, and I think he'll do well. I'm just pointing out that he has had many issues recently, and the sample size is small.

 

Plus, I disagree on Espi. Within the context of where he is and who he's facing, he's doing well- so well that his stock has risen this year.

 

Who knows why he was in the minors? Maybe its because he had options...maybe it was for rehab starts after his injuries. It obviously wasn't because of his performance. His numbers for the past 2 1/2 years are very good. As for Espinosa, I would have loved to keep him. I personally offered SD the combination of Buchholz, Craig, Castillo, Owens, and O'Sullivan, but they wouldn't listen. They weren't willing to hand over an all star for a bag of golf balls. Espinosa may or may not become a legit ML pitcher; he has promise, which is why the Padres wanted him. Whatever your opinion of this trade is, you have to give DD credit for not sitting on his hands. He actually went out and did something to hopefully improve the team. I am going to assume he got the best deal he could, though I will never know. Doing nothing was not an option if this team was to stand a good chance to make the playoffs. Not with our SPing.

Here is what Bannister said about his turnaround as a SP:

 

""He went from being a two-pitch pitcher, which limits your viability as a starter," Bannister said before the Red Sox beat the Yankees on Friday night. "He added a third pitch, which got him over the hump and it's a quality third pitch."

 

That pitch is a cutter, and Bannister believes it's not only the key to Pomeranz's emergence, but the key to sustaining it, especially when paired with a "top-20" curveball, as well as an effective fastball.

 

"He's always had the ability to spin the ball, it's always been one of the better curveballs in the league from a lefty, he's a big body, he knows how to pitch," Bannister said. "He needed something that could balance out his fastball, especially when you get behind in the count, because you can't always just throw a curveball and he wasn't a changeup guy. Just having that ability to mix in that cutter like he has and have it be a power pitch, it's really just taken him to another level.""

[d-money]

The assistant Red Sox pitching coach has been watching Pomeranz since the start of the season, and he believes the All-Star left-hander is the real deal.

 

"He went from being a two-pitch pitcher, which limits your viability as a starter," Bannister said before the Red Sox beat the

 

Yankees on Friday night. "He added a third pitch, which got him over the hump and it's a quality third pitch."

 

What about E Rod?

 

Everyone knows rodriguez needs to add a third pitch.

[moonslav59]

Who knows why he was in the minors? Maybe its because he had options...maybe it was for rehab starts after his injuries. It obviously wasn't because of his performance. His numbers for the past 2 1/2 years are very good. As for Espinosa, I would have loved to keep him. I personally offered SD the combination of Buchholz, Craig, Castillo, Owens, and O'Sullivan, but they wouldn't listen. They weren't willing to hand over an all star for a bag of golf balls. Espinosa may or may not become a legit ML pitcher; he has promise, which is why the Padres wanted him. Whatever your opinion of this trade is, you have to give DD credit for not sitting on his hands. He actually went out and did something to hopefully improve the team. I am going to assume he got the best deal he could, though I will never know. Doing nothing was not an option if this team was to stand a good chance to make the playoffs. Not with our SPing.

Here is what Bannister said about his turnaround as a SP:

 

""He went from being a two-pitch pitcher, which limits your viability as a starter," Bannister said before the Red Sox beat the Yankees on Friday night. "He added a third pitch, which got him over the hump and it's a quality third pitch."

 

That pitch is a cutter, and Bannister believes it's not only the key to Pomeranz's emergence, but the key to sustaining it, especially when paired with a "top-20" curveball, as well as an effective fastball.

 

"He's always had the ability to spin the ball, it's always been one of the better curveballs in the league from a lefty, he's a big body, he knows how to pitch," Bannister said. "He needed something that could balance out his fastball, especially when you get behind in the count, because you can't always just throw a curveball and he wasn't a changeup guy. Just having that ability to mix in that cutter like he has and have it be a power pitch, it's really just taken him to another level.""

 

I'm hoping for the best. I don't dislike Pomeranz. Just because I listed my concerns, especially regarding his sample size, does not mean I think he will fail. I actually think he'll do fine. He should be our number 3 or 4 for the next 2.4 years at a low financial cost. That will aloow us to spend in other high need areas over the next 2 winters.

 

I realize any acquisition is a gamble or risk, and I realize Espi was also a gamble and risk. I'm not terribly upset by the deal, but I don't like it. To me, it's actually more about Espi than Pomeranz, but I know my posts have been more about Pomeranz concerns.