Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Youk Of The Nation]

Dammit. I 100% agree with the MFY fan again. This site is bizarro world for me sometimes.

 

It happens a lot. For a Yankees fan, he's remarkably not stupid. Annoying, condescending, arrogant, opinionated, ugly, unlikable, probably a furry, short, unfunny, a terrible lay according to his wife...but not stupid.

 

Listen to me, gushing over the guy. Love you, man.

[southpaw777]

LOL. UN, you are right. DD came in, shot the wad, got the big ticket purchases and told the world "we're back". Thus far, mid May, you are. Yet, you have one fatal flaw which can be acquired because of the depth of minor league talent. You have the stuff in the minors not just to get a good pitcher, but to acquire an elite one. You also don't have a AAA guy right now who could be brought up mid season and dominate a la ERod and Severino last yr. If you don't acquire a starter this yr, it would be damning. This is apparently Papi's last yr. The offense is killing it. Even without Smith (who gets TJS IMO) your pen should be lights out. But that rotation will not win you a world series. Have Price right himself, get a top notch #2 (or even someone to supplant Price as the 1) and roll into the playoffs as the favorites in the AL

 

Agree...Why go get Price, Kimbrel, and Smith if youre just going to prepare for 2017. We have a lot of prospects and a couple guys on the 25 man that could be available in a trade for a TOTR arm. Just depends on whos still in the race come the end of July.

I still think Swihart will be used in a trade for that pitcher.

[Emp9]

Basically SouthPaw, we just need to keep pace. Ny & TB don't worry me as much as Bal & Tor on that front. Are your rather tranquil posts concerning injuries to ERod & Smith genuine? Because I thought these two were goingto be a big part of any success we had this year. We've been keeping pace without them yes, but will that last?

[southpaw777]

Basically SouthPaw, we just need to keep pace. Ny & TB don't worry me as much as Bal & Tor on that front. Are your rather tranquil posts concerning injuries to ERod & Smith genuine? Because I thought these two were goingto be a big part of any success we had this year. We've been keeping pace without them yes, but will that last?

 

Hey Emp!

I do have some concern with the starting rotation. With Erod i was just saying its not a shoulder or anything to do with his arm so im not as concerned. We need him back for sure. I think the BP is very strong, even without Smith. It sucks hes not there, but I really do think we can be just fine with what we have there right now.

My concern is the rotation, but after seeing what DD has attempted to do so far I think he will make the necesary moves needed.

I guess knowing that the payroll can and will be exceeded and the fact that we have plenty of trade chips, Im not really too concerned at this point. Both of Baltimore and Toronto have rotation and bullpen concerns so i dont see either one dominating. Not concerned about NY or TB one bit this year.

Personally, I never really get worried this early anyway. I pretty much try and stay balanced, level headed and realistic about things...

Edited May 19, 2016 by southpaw777

[FredLynn]

Basically SouthPaw, we just need to keep pace. Ny & TB don't worry me as much as Bal & Tor on that front. Are your rather tranquil posts concerning injuries to ERod & Smith genuine? Because I thought these two were goingto be a big part of any success we had this year. We've been keeping pace without them yes, but will that last?

 

Actually, we need to have a comfortable lead by the time Sept rolls around. Have you looked at that schedule? Its a brutal Sept schedule and it will be very difficult to make up ground that month.

In regards to Rodriguez and Smith: I do not have any faith in the Red Sox medical staff to correctly diagnose and treat the players. I am pretty sure they missed something when they guessed what injuries were actually suffered. Hopefully both players will get sent out to a competent medical doctor outside the system for another opinion-before its too late.

[Emp9]

Well, the trade dealine (non-waiver) is August 1st. Teams generally wait to see if they're buyers or sellers. Late June, early July, mid July... we should get a better picture of whats out there. I hope the Sox don't wait until 3:59p Monday Aug 1st to address their needs. But even if they did, it's still a whole month before Sept comes around.

[mvp 78]

We definitely needed that extra pitcher once ERod went down. It was clear within the first week or so that he wouldn't be ready for the season opener. Considering all of the other question marks in the rotation, that was the time to make a deal. They definitely lucked into Wright's performance.

 

If they had not picked up Buchholz's option, they could have grabbed a more reliable starter for similar or less money (i.e. JA Happ, Doug Fister, Colby Lewis) and the rotation would be looking much better.

[Slasher9]

maybe we should have taken a flyer on Lincecum....?

[mvp 78]

maybe we should have taken a flyer on Lincecum....?

 

I'd rather have Buchholz in the rotation.

[Dojji]

We definitely needed that extra pitcher once ERod went down. It was clear within the first week or so that he wouldn't be ready for the season opener. Considering all of the other question marks in the rotation, that was the time to make a deal. They definitely lucked into Wright's performance.

 

If they had not picked up Buchholz' option, they could have grabbed a more reliable starter for similar or less money (i.e. JA Happ, Doug Fister, Colby Lewis) and the rotation would be looking much better.

 

you guys know that in the offseason I wanted Wei-Yin Chen. I would have happily dropped Buchholz on someone and used the money to bring in Chen as well as Price, even if it meant paying more on the payroll tax. Chen is the #2-3 starter (more of a 3 really but he does fit the description) that we needed in the offseason and the FO clearly wasn't even thinking of going in that direction. Why? because in theory if everyone was healthy and effective we didn't have a spot for him.

 

This is what sucks about Buchholz though -- you can't commit to a professional to take over his innings because he's physically present on the roster, but you K-N-O-W that you're going to need to pick up some of those innings and there's a possibility he's going to be completely ineffective. He's like a walking immunization shot against any possibility of upgrading a key mid-rotation spot in the offseason. Because we had Buchholz there was no way the FO was going to commit to Chen, even though our rotation problems would be minor ones if the team had decided to go for that solution.

[Spudboy]

you guys know that in the offseason I wanted Wei-Yin Chen. I would have happily dropped Buchholz on someone and used the money to bring in Chen as well as Price, even if it meant paying more on the payroll tax. Chen is the #2-3 starter (more of a 3 really but he does fit the description) that we needed in the offseason and the FO clearly wasn't even thinking of going in that direction. Why? because in theory if everyone was healthy and effective we didn't have a spot for him.

 

This is what sucks about Buchholz though -- you can't commit to a professional to take over his innings because he's physically present on the roster, but you K-N-O-W that you're going to need to pick up some of those innings and there's a possibility he's going to be completely ineffective. He's like a walking immunization shot against any possibility of upgrading a key mid-rotation spot in the offseason. Because we had Buchholz there was no way the FO was going to commit to Chen, even though our rotation problems would be minor ones if the team had decided to go for that solution.

 

I'm not sure about Chen but you make a strong point about Buttholtz.

 

I see his presence on the 25 as sort of the "Anti-Roster Crunch". He f***s the entire squad up.

[Dojji]

Chen's a solid #3. That's what they look like. A guy you put behind your ace and your big inning burning #2 to eat additional large numbers of innings innings at an approximately average performance level and not make a lot of self-inflicted mistakes The problem is he'd come off a hot year and marketed himself as a poor man's #2 when he's really an exactly average mid rotation starter.

 

Chen would have slotted in perfectly behind Porcello and ahead of Wright and Kelly and have given us a very nice rotation indeed. Not a world beater but solid. Unfortunately we were too committed to Buchholz and Kelly to countenance the move, which is a pity as it turns out.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

you guys know that in the offseason I wanted Wei-Yin Chen. I would have happily dropped Buchholz on someone and used the money to bring in Chen as well as Price, even if it meant paying more on the payroll tax. Chen is the #2-3 starter (more of a 3 really but he does fit the description) that we needed in the offseason and the FO clearly wasn't even thinking of going in that direction. Why? because in theory if everyone was healthy and effective we didn't have a spot for him.

 

This is what sucks about Buchholz though -- you can't commit to a professional to take over his innings because he's physically present on the roster, but you K-N-O-W that you're going to need to pick up some of those innings and there's a possibility he's going to be completely ineffective. He's like a walking immunization shot against any possibility of upgrading a key mid-rotation spot in the offseason. Because we had Buchholz there was no way the FO was going to commit to Chen, even though our rotation problems would be minor ones if the team had decided to go for that solution.

 

Chen had a QO attached to him though.

[Dojji]

if you're willing now to trade prospect talent for starting pitching, why the hell does a QO matter in the offseason in order to better avoid the need to do so? I'd rather lose a draft pick to address a serious potential hole in the rotation than lose actual tangible prospects to fill the same hole later. Worrying about QO's is the textbook definition of the adage about being "penny wise, but pound foolish."

 

It's not like any of us who were paying attention weren't deeply concerned about the quality and depth of the rotation and that we might be forced into a trade with even slightly below average luck. If all of us can see that coming, then signing a guy with a QO is an exercise in paying 1 to avoid losing 2-3 later -- a reasonable investment in the future.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Dojji

[Slasher9]

if you're willing now to trade prospect talent for starting pitching, why the hell does a QO matter in the offseason in order to better avoid the need to do so? I'd rather lose a draft pick to address a serious potential hole in the rotation than lose actual tangible prospects.

 

It's not like any of us who were paying attention weren't deeply concerned about the quality and depth of the rotation and that we might be forced into a trade with even slightly below average luck. If all of us can see that coming, then signing a guy with a QO is an exercise in paying 1 to avoid losing 2-3 later -- a reasonable investment in the future.

we already have four #3 starters. why give up a QO for one in the offseason? a TOTR SP? thats a different story.......

[Dojji]

We do not have 4 #3 starters. Porcello and wright are #3 starters. No one else in this rotation other than Price comes up to that level. And you could still EASILY make the argument that Wright will settle into a 4-5 role once hitters get used to him.

 

I could wish we had 4 #3 starters, with this offense that might be all we need. Right now we have maybe a 1, a 3, a wildcard, a guy on the DL who showed some promise, and half a bazillion bottom of the rotation types that might stretch up to the middle of a rotation in a great year but cannot be counted on in any way.

 

Wei-Yin Chen would have represented a fantastic upgrade to the biggest area we're hurting right now -- durable rotation depth. I'll tell you this -- the guy we trade for is going to be very much like Wei-yin Chen. Because this team bent over backwards for Price and is not in a position to get a TOTR guy right now. Too much dead money for one thing.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Dojji

[Jasonbay44]

I don't consider our pitchers #3s. I consider Wright and Porcello 3s, and Price should be a #1, but the other guys are "probably shouldn't be in MLB" type pitchers. (Kelly, Buchholz, Owens, Nacho, etc)

[Slasher9]

We do not have 4 #3 starters. Porcello and wright are #3 starters. No one else in this rotation other than Price comes up to that level. And you could still EASILY make the argument that Wright will settle into a 4-5 role once hitters get used to him.

 

I could wish we had 4 #3 starters, with this offense that might be all we need. Right now we have maybe a 1, a 3, a wildcard, a guy on the DL who showed some promise, and half a bazillion bottom of the rotation types that might stretch up to the middle of a rotation in a great year but cannot be counted on in any way.

 

Wei-Yin Chen would have represented a fantastic upgrade to the biggest area we're hurting right now -- durable rotation depth. I'll tell you this -- the guy we trade for is going to be very much like Wei-yin Chen. Because this team bent over backwards for Price and is not in a position to get a TOTR guy right now. Too much dead money for one thing.

 

fair enough. the point is....in the offseason i'm not giving QO to a #3 SP. you "should" be able to pickup a #3 without QO. but it is possible i am misreading the market?

[Dojji]

The market for starting pitching is perennially inflated. There's never enough starting pitchers to go round. And we *knew* our rotation had a potential to become a sucking chest wound. No expense was spared to bring a top of the line guy in but we didn't do anything to address the bread and butter of the rotation. I would rather have gone after 2 #3's than Price, truth be told. it would have meant more overall.

 

As it is we got lucky the middle of our rotation was as strong as it is. NEITHER of Price or Porcello were guaranteed to be off to the start they've been off to, in fact Wright is still a bit of an unknown quantity and Porcello's on pace for a career year. And these are our "#3" starters. And that luck could still regress to the mean. EASILY.

 

We are on a precipice with this rotation. There is a HUGE potential for disaster here. Average luck has us holding at about this level of performance, which is already unacceptable. below average luck -- losing even one additional SP -- could see us throwing away the entire season due to a lack of foresight and an unwillingness to step out of the dogmatic track of what you "never do" and engage in actual risk management.

 

And this is Papi's last year. We have everything else we need to be a major frontrunner. This could be/could have been a very special season, the kind you load up and throw everything you have at. Even in that situation Slasher, are you sure you *never* make a QO to a durable bread-and-butter middle of the rotation starter? Even when you're *ABSOLUTELY DESPERATE* for one? Even when it was plainly obvious in the offseason that not making that move could force you to trade multiple top 10 organizational prospects in order to make the same acquisition later?

Edited May 19, 2016 by Dojji

[southpaw777]

Id rather trade some of our prospect surplus and get another TOTR starter. Why even mess with anything else? Makes zero sense to me. Anything other than a bonified 1-1A I could care less. Im just tired of these 4-5 era guys and one good one. Id like a couple low to sub 3 guys if at all possible and would be more than willing to pay for it. Our offense looks to be pretty good for a long time, so lets go get a Young, controlled starter.

[mvp 78]

And this is Papi's last year. We have everything else we need to be a major frontrunner. This could be/could have been a very special season, the kind you load up and throw everything you have at.

 

You don't mortgage the future just because it's a retiring player's last season.

[Dojji]

you do when you have a chance to do something special this year, and the guy who's carried you through all 3 of your recent World Series wins is retiring in the offseason. you mortgage the future, in other words, when the window is closing.

 

We're about to lose a part of the team that has played a huge role in every deep playoff run we've been on since he got here. I'd say that makes this a pretty damn good year to mortgage the future on. I think some fans are overestimating just how much business will go on as usual in a post-Ortiz world.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

you do when you have a chance to do something special this year, and the guy who's carried you through all 3 of your recent World Series wins is retiring in the offseason. I'd say that makes this a pretty damn good year to stake the future on.

 

You mortgage the future if you set yourself up for a good 4-5 year run. Doing it for a 1 year shot doesn't make sense to me. Plus, we have 3 recent championship banners. I don't see the urgency here.

[Dojji]

We have a fighting chance to hang a 4th one, if we'd upgraded the rotation aggressively in the offseason. If our rotation was Price-Porcello-Chen-Wright-E-Rod/Kelly, that's a proper rotation for a playoff team and with that level of depth we could have weathered a few injuries and not rushed pitching prospects into the rotation out of desperation just because one guy got hurt. that's a rotation you go to war against anyone with. Missing that piece right out of the middle of that rotation is going to have consequences for our ability to contend this year.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Id rather trade some of our prospect surplus and get another TOTR starter. Why even mess with anything else? Makes zero sense to me. Anything other than a bonified 1-1A I could care less. Im just tired of these 4-5 era guys and one good one. Id like a couple low to sub 3 guys if at all possible and would be more than willing to pay for it. Our offense looks to be pretty good for a long time, so lets go get a Young, controlled starter.

 

The problem is, "Who actually might be available?" I can't see any top starters being on the market right now. Maybe Sonny Gray? He struggling right now, so I don't think the A's would consider moving him. Teheran? Do you want to send top prospects to Atlanta for this guy? I'm guessing they hang onto him until the deadline.

 

If you would've told me in February that this team would be 25-16 at this point, yet Kelly & Rodriguez will have made only 3 starts combined and Price & Buchholz both had e.r.a s north of 5 and a half, I would have laughed. I don't think this rotation is the disaster that some make it out to be. I definitely don't think it's time to panic.

[southpaw777]

Why all the fascination with a #3-4 pitcher? You need two solid TOTR guys for a deep playoff run. Porcello has had one year with an era below 4 and hes our closest to Price, who is proven and a CY Award winner.

I doubt Chen was the piece that would have put us over the top this year.

[southpaw777]

The problem is, "Who actually might be available?" I can't see any top starters being on the market right now. Maybe Sonny Gray? He struggling right now, so I don't think the A's would consider moving him. Teheran? Do you want to send top prospects to Atlanta for this guy? I'm guessing they hang onto him until the deadline.

 

If you would've told me in February that this team would be 25-16 at this point, yet Kelly & Rodriguez will have made only 3 starts combined and Price & Buchholz both had e.r.a s north of 5 and a half, I would have laughed. I don't think this rotation is the disaster that some make it out to be. I definitely don't think it's time to panic.

 

Absolutely, it all depends on whos in it, or who thinks theyre in it at the deadline. We may have to wait until the offseason for the big pitching move and may have to go the route like in 2013 with Peavy this year. Still two months+ to go, and a whole lot can hapoen between now and then...for now we can get by with what we have and a powerful offense.

[Eddy Ballgame]

We have a fighting chance to hang a 4th one, if we'd upgraded the rotation aggressively in the offseason. If our rotation was Price-Porcello-Chen-Wright-E-Rod/Kelly, that's a proper rotation for a playoff team and with that level of depth we could have weathered a few injuries and not rushed pitching prospects into the rotation out of desperation just because one guy got hurt. that's a rotation you go to war against anyone with. Missing that piece right out of the middle of that rotation is going to have consequences for our ability to contend this year.

 

Chen? Wei Yin Chen? Would anyone in the world be surprised if Buchholz ends up having a better year than this guy? I doubt the Red Sox would ever want to give a guy like Chen 5 & 80, just because it's Ortiz's last year.

[User Name]

Chen? Wei Yin Chen? Would anyone in the world be surprised if Buchholz ends up having a better year than this guy? I doubt the Red Sox would ever want to give a guy like Chen 5 & 80, just because it's Ortiz's last year.

 

Everyone.

 

 

Over the last three years, Chen has averaged 171 IP of 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP ball, while Buchholz averages 131 IP of 3.74, 1.23 WHIP ball. Those 30 extra IP yearly coupled with much higher consistency (Buchholz had one superlative year, a s***** one, and one above average one, while Chen has one slightly below average and two slightly above average ones) definitely tips the scales in Chen's direction. I agree that Chen would not have been the savior Dojji paints him as (it's his MO when he covets a player), but let's call a spade a spade. Chen is a more dependable, consistent pitcher than Buchholz.

[Bellhorn04]

Chen would have cost us the #12 pick in the draft.