2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[Spudboy]

Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater.

That did not happen within the past 5 or so years so it does not count to a Gen-xer or Millennial.

[mvp 78]

That I may agree with.

 

Don Baylor wasn't a meaningful trade? No wS in 86 without him.

[Dojji]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exception_that_proves_the_rule#Loose_rhetorical_sense

[a700hitter]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exception_that_proves_the_rule#Loose_rhetorical_sense

^ Huh?

[Spudboy]

^ Huh?

 

He's just being clever.

[a700hitter]

7:34pm: The Padres are widely expected to move right-hander Andrew Cashner before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, and according to a pair of reports from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports and MLB.com (Twitter link) and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Cashner may have already made his final start with San Diego. Cashner is slated to pitch for the Friars tomorrow night, but both reporters indicate that there’s a possibility that the righty could be moved before that outing takes place. Morosi cites rival executives that believe San Diego GM A.J. Preller may want to move Cashner before he takes the hill.

His stock has fallen over the past two seasons.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Many poster suggest trades with players nobody wants.

 

Many posters assume that when another poster suggests trading one of our good players, it means they undervalue that player.

 

I think I value Holt, Swihart and Devers as much as the average Sox fan, but I want something very special in return, so we have to give to get. Here's my thinking in a nutshell:

 

Holt is not as valuable to the Sox after Papi retires and we no longer have one of our roster spots filled by a DH only player.

IMO, Holt is not a plus fielder at 3B, SS, 1B and maybe even OF.

 

I really like Hernandez, and we also have Rutledge, Marrero, and others as our subs going forward.

 

We will need some roster space on the 25 man roster for Moncada & Beni and maybe even Travis. We may also want to keep Leon and Vazquez as our catchers and Swihart as our #3 C and platoon LF'er/corner IF'er. That will mean we need an extra roster space. Havings a third catcher gives us a lot of flexibility that Holt ca not give us as we can PH for our catchers. (Of course if we trade Holt and Swihart that won't be the case.)

 

Whether or not Holt is a plus defender at any position is certainly debatable, but I don't think that he's a liability anywhere, either. I'm not implying that you're underestimating his value, but you include him in every trade proposal, even for trades before the deadline this year. I just don't get it.

 

Sometimes you have to get past statistical data to assess the true value of a player and Brock Holt is a prime example. David Price wasn't given 217 million to simply win 25 games every year. He was expected to be the staff leader & help mentor young pitchers, as he's done in the past.

 

I just don't think many players can do what Holt does (Zobrist & ?), definitely not the guys that you mentioned as replacements. The toll that it takes on him mentally & physically by the end of the season is crazy. I read where Zobrist was saying it during the break. As fans, we don't realize the value of a guy like that because he doesn't get the credit the "stars" do.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox are 28-11 in Holt's starts this year.

[Hugh2]

Keep your eyes on Joe Kelly. I always thought he had more potential as a reliever since the day we traded for him. More time is needed to trust him but the early results in Pawtucket are promising.

 

He by no means would be the first failed starter to become a relief pitcher. Actually some of the best closers in history were just failed starters.

[Slasher9]

THERE IS NOTHING TO FEAR BUT FEAR ITSELF - Melania Trump

[Kimmi]

He's just being clever.

 

I thought he did a good job of it.

[a700hitter]

THERE IS NOTHING TO FEAR BUT FEAR ITSELF - Melania Trump

What difference does it make!

[moonslav59]

Many poster suggest trades with players nobody wants.

 

Many posters assume that when another poster suggests trading one of our good players, it means they undervalue that player.

 

I think I value Holt, Swihart and Devers as much as the average Sox fan, but I want something very special in return, so we have to give to get. Here's my thinking in a nutshell:

 

Holt is not as valuable to the Sox after Papi retires and we no longer have one of our roster spots filled by a DH only player.

IMO, Holt is not a plus fielder at 3B, SS, 1B and maybe even OF.

 

I really like Hernandez, and we also have Rutledge, Marrero, and others as our subs going forward.

 

We will need some roster space on the 25 man roster for Moncada & Beni and maybe even Travis. We may also want to keep Leon and Vazquez as our catchers and Swihart as our #3 C and platoon LF'er/corner IF'er. That will mean we need an extra roster space. Havings a third catcher gives us a lot of flexibility that Holt ca not give us as we can PH for our catchers. (Of course if we trade Holt and Swihart that won't be the case.)

 

Whether or not Holt is a plus defender at any position is certainly debatable, but I don't think that he's a liability anywhere, either. I'm not implying that you're underestimating his value, but you include him in every trade proposal, even for trades before the deadline this year. I just don't get it.

 

I'm fine with you disagreeing. Keeping Holt on the roster has many benefits. I get your point, but I'm puzzled why you don't at least understand (get it) my point. I laid it out very clearly above. To get great talent, you have to trade value in return. I also feel Holt, Swihart and Devers have more value to other teams than ours. I feel several teams would make Holt a FT player. That's a huge value disparity over us using him as a super sub. I think other teams would use Swihart as a FT catcher. We won't. That's a value disparity. I also think, to many teams, Devers would be right on track to be their 3Bman or 1Bman of the future; with us, he's blocked by another prospect: Moncada.

 

Again, feel free to disagree, but saying "I don't get it" puzzles me.

 

Sometimes you have to get past statistical data to assess the true value of a player and Brock Holt is a prime example. David Price wasn't given 217 million to simply win 25 games every year. He was expected to be the staff leader & help mentor young pitchers, as he's done in the past.

 

I'm not saying Holt does not have great value to us, but after Papi retires, I think that value may decrease a little, and his value elsewhere is higher. To me, that's the type of player I look to offer in trade. I'm also very high on Hernandez, Travis, Moncada & Benintendi. I probably value Rutledge & Marrero more than others. Then, there is the Pablo, Shaw, HanRam log jam at 3B/1B coming up next season.

 

Someone has to go. Probably two have to go. Yes, Holt may be better than many listed above, but some of them do not have high trade value, and to me some have huge upside potential. That jack-of-all-trades quality that Holt possesses may be eclipsed by having stronger subs that do not play 7 positions, but collectively do better than Holt.

 

I just don't think many players can do what Holt does (Zobrist & ?), definitely not the guys that you mentioned as replacements. The toll that it takes on him mentally & physically by the end of the season is crazy. I read where Zobrist was saying it during the break. As fans, we don't realize the value of a guy like that because he doesn't get the credit the "stars" do.

 

I think I understand the value of Zobrist and the like well enough. I just think the upgrade we get from the quality SP'er we trade for vs who he replaces should be much better than the possible downgrade we get from going from Holt/Hernandez to Hernandez & Moncada/Benintendi/Travis (Pablo?).

 

Just for argument's sake is the differential between Quintana and ERod/Kelly more or less than the differential between Holt & Moncada/Benintendi/Travis/Pablo/Rutledge/Marrero?

 

(Note" I'm not saying Swihart, Devers and Holkt will get us Quintana this winter, but even someone significantly worse than Quintana would have more vale than Holt to a team in great need of pitching. Remember, Uehara and Tazawa are FAs this winter.)

[Spudboy]

Quick. Let's rationalize the deceitful actions of unintelligent people.

[moonslav59]

Sox are 28-11 in Holt's starts this year.

 

That's a great point to bring up when trying to convince a team to give us a great pitcher for him, Swihart and Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

No more political posts please

[Bellhorn04]

That's a great point to bring up when trying to convince a team to give us a great pitcher for him, Swihart and Devers.

 

You want a great pitcher, the other team wants one of the B's.

[illinoisredsox]

No more political posts please

 

Agreed. Deleted the one I added because it does not belong in this forum and I have no wish take the thread off course.

 

Now back to trade talk.

[Slasher9]

You want a great pitcher, the other team wants one of the B's.

 

Brock starts with a B.

[moonslav59]

You want a great pitcher, the other team wants one of the B's.

 

Probably so, but if Holt is as great as what some say he is, and the market for a top young catchers like Swihart is as high as many feel it is, and a top prospect like Devers is added to the package, why wouldn't some team give us a pretty darn good pitcher?

 

If not, we keep all this greatness and watch Holt and other help lead us to another ring (alert: blatant sarcasm).

 

(Note: I'm also prepared to add Travis, Basabe, Dubon, Ockimey or sub Hernandez for Holt if it makes a difference. I might even consider adding Kopech for the right guy. Adding Owens or Johnson goes without saying, if it makes a difference.)

[a700hitter]

No more political posts please

I left mine, because I think it is funny.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Probably so, but if Holt is as great as what some say he is, and the market for a top young catchers like Swihart is as high as many feel it is, and a top prospect like Devers is added to the package, why wouldn't some team give us a pretty darn good pitcher?

 

If not, we keep all this greatness and watch Holt and other help lead us to another ring (alert: blatant sarcasm).

 

(Note: I'm also prepared to add Travis, Basabe, Dubon, Ockimey or sub Hernandez for Holt if it makes a difference. I might even consider adding Kopech for the right guy. Adding Owens or Johnson goes without saying, if it makes a difference.)

 

Are you saying that Holt would have more value as an everyday player to another team than he would as a super sub to the Red Sox.? If so, then that's where you lose me.

 

As an everyday player, Holt would probably be below average. As a super sub, his value is 10 fold. There are simply very few guys who can do what he does. He gives a team a ton of flexibility. Either way, Holt isn't going to be traded during this season. The Sox know how valuable he is, even if the casual fan doesn't.

[Bellhorn04]

Holt is one of the reasons I like WAR. With the Red Sox Holt has a total bWAR of 5.0 in 305 games or about 2 full seasons. A 2.5 WAR player making minimum wage is a huge value.

[Dojji]

Are you saying that Holt would have more value as an everyday player to another team than he would as a super sub to the Red Sox.? If so, then that's where you lose me.

 

As an everyday player, Holt would probably be below average. As a super sub, his value is 10 fold. There are simply very few guys who can do what he does. He gives a team a ton of flexibility. Either way, Holt isn't going to be traded during this season. The Sox know how valuable he is, even if the casual fan doesn't.

 

How about an everyday player in one of the prime positions he plays? Especially 2B. Holt would be quite an acceptable everyday second baseman -- not a superstar, but a solid contributing player. It's the fact that he's blocked there by Pedroia that's allowed him to shine as a supersub.

[moonslav59]

Are you saying that Holt would have more value as an everyday player to another team than he would as a super sub to the Red Sox.? If so, then that's where you lose me.

 

As an everyday player, Holt would probably be below average. As a super sub, his value is 10 fold. There are simply very few guys who can do what he does. He gives a team a ton of flexibility. Either way, Holt isn't going to be traded during this season. The Sox know how valuable he is, even if the casual fan doesn't.

 

A GM trading for Holt would probably do so with the idea of finding or filling an open FT slot for him. If you look around MLB today, you'll see that even a diminished FT Holt is better than what they have right now. Personally, I agree that Holt should not be a FT player, but I think several GMs would think he's better than their current options day in and day out. They don't have Shaw at 3B, Bogey at SS, Pedey at 2B plus a killer OF. On top of the lesser starters they have, they don't have Swihart, Moncada, Benintendi, Travis, Hernandez, Rutledge and others beating down the door to fill in any available slot. Damn right I see Holt as a FT'er having greater value to some other team that is woefully weak at several positions he can play.

 

 

If they don't find a FT position for Holt, they'd probably still play him much more than we would.

 

We have some fantastic options to take Holt's place. I'm not even sure it would be a downgrade. Even if it ends up being a downgrade, the differential should not outweigh the gain we get with our pitching staff upgrade.

[moonslav59]

Holt is one of the reasons I like WAR. With the Red Sox Holt has a total bWAR of 5.0 in 305 games or about 2 full seasons. A 2.5 WAR player making minimum wage is a huge value.

 

Again, my argument is not about Holt's value. I value him highly, and that is why I view his value as being part of a package to bring us high value in return.

[moonslav59]

How about an everyday player in one of the prime positions he plays? Especially 2B. Holt would be quite an acceptable everyday second baseman -- not a superstar, but a solid contributing player. It's the fact that he's blocked there by Pedroia that's allowed him to shine as a supersub.

 

I agree 100%. I think Holt's best defensive position is 2B. I also think he's a decent and maybe even a plus LF'er. I see him as neaar or below average in CF or RF despite small sample size metrics perhaps saying otherwise. I do not want to see Holt at SS or 1B unless it's an emergency 1-2 game bridge to a call-up or acquisition. I agree with notin's point that Holt was a major factor we signed Pablo. He should not play 3B for an extended time.

 

All this being said, I still think Holt has great value. It is a big plus to a manager's flexibility having a guy that won't kill you by playing any of 7 positions. It's an enormous value to a team with a DH only player like Ortiz.

 

Even if Papi really retires, here are the choices for our 13 non-pitchers next year:

 

C Vaz

C Leon

LF/C Swihart

1B/DH Ramirez

DH/3B Pablo

3B/1B Shaw

3B/2B/DH Moncada

2B Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

LF/DH Young

LF Benintendi

CF JBJ

RF Betts

 

That's 13 right there with a weakness at back-up SS only. All other positions are 2-3 deep. That leaves Holt, Hernandez & Rutledge to fill that back-up SS slot as well as provide possible deeper support elsewhere. Clearly back-up SS, particularly on defense would be the major bench need.

 

I like Hernandez on defense better at SS. He may even hit as well as Holt. To add Holt or Hernandez, we'll probably have to dump Pablo somehow, so ultimately, we may need more help at 3B too. Again, I like Hernandez and Rutledge better on defense at 3B than Holt, and both may hit as well as Holt. We may need added help in the OF, but with 4 guys that can play CF (JBJ, Betts, Beni & Young) we only need help in LF. That can come from Swihart who effectively becomes our 5th OF'er- or in other words, we'll be 2 deep at all 3 OF positions with Swihart on the 25 man roster. (Trading Swihart as I have suggested does increase the need for Holt over Hernadez, but I still like Hernandez at SS and 3B over Holt, so it's still a wash at worst.

 

There may also be a desire to find a 25 man roster spot for Travis.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

How about an everyday player in one of the prime positions he plays? Especially 2B. Holt would be quite an acceptable everyday second baseman -- not a superstar, but a solid contributing player. It's the fact that he's blocked there by Pedroia that's allowed him to shine as a supersub.

 

I'm not saying that Holt wouldn't be a fine second baseman somewhere. What I'm saying is that what Holt is able to do as a supersub has a lot more value.

 

There was an ex-player/baseball analyst on the radio about a month ago saying that every team wants a Brock Holt, or tries to create their own, but it's not easy. Very few guys can do what he does.

 

Trust me, I'm not Holt's brother & never thought I'd have to defend the guy. I was just curious to find out why another guy put him in a 100 different trade proposals as if the Red Sox actually considered moving him.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I agree 100%. I think Holt's best defensive position is 2B. I also think he's a decent and maybe even a plus LF'er. I see him as neaar or below average in CF or RF despite small sample size metrics perhaps saying otherwise. I do not want to see Holt at SS or 1B unless it's an emergency 1-2 game bridge to a call-up or acquisition. I agree with notin's point that Holt was a major factor we signed Pablo. He should not play 3B for an extended time.

 

All this being said, I still think Holt has great value. It is a big plus to a manager's flexibility having a guy that won't kill you by playing any of 7 positions. It's an enormous value to a team with a DH only player like Ortiz.

 

Even if Papi really retires, here are the choices for our 13 non-pitchers next year:

 

C Vaz

C Leon

LF/C Swihart

1B/DH Ramirez

DH/3B Pablo

3B/1B Shaw

3B/2B/DH Moncada

2B Pedroia

SS Bogaerts

LF/DH Young

LF Benintendi

CF JBJ

RF Betts

 

That's 13 right there with a weakness at back-up SS only. All other positions are 2-3 deep. That leaves Holt, Hernandez & Rutledge to fill that back-up SS slot as well as provide possible deeper support elsewhere. Clearly back-up SS, particularly on defense would be the major bench need.

 

I like Hernandez on defense better at SS. He may even hit as well as Holt. To add Holt or Hernandez, we'll probably have to dump Pablo somehow, so ultimately, we may need more help at 3B too. Again, I like Hernandez and Rutledge better on defense at 3B than Holt, and both may hit as well as Holt. We may need added help in the OF, but with 4 guys that can play CF (JBJ, Betts, Beni & Young) we only need help in LF. That can come from Swihart who effectively becomes our 5th OF'er- or in other words, we'll be 2 deep at all 3 OF positions with Swihart on the 25 man roster. (Trading Swihart as I have suggested does increase the need for Holt over Hernadez, but I still like Hernandez at SS and 3B over Holt, so it's still a wash at worst.

 

There may also be a desire to find a 25 man roster spot for Travis.

 

 

I still think you are missing my point, so I won't continue to try to explain. A lot can happen between now and next season and I agree they'll have some interesting decisions to make, but they won't need to create a spot for Sam Travis. He's a highly touted prospect who is missing most of this season. He'll either win the full time job at 1st in Boston or play full time in Pawtucket.

[Emp9]

I'm not saying that Holt wouldn't be a fine second baseman somewhere. What I'm saying is that what Holt is able to do as a supersub has a lot more value.

 

There was an ex-player/baseball analyst on the radio about a month ago saying that every team wants a Brock Holt, or tries to create their own, but it's not easy. Very few guys can do what he does.

 

Trust me, I'm not Holt's brother & never thought I'd have to defend the guy. I was just curious to find out why another guy put him in a 100 different trade proposals as if the Red Sox actually considered moving him.

 

I always thought Holt wld be much more valuable to an NL team than an AL team considering his versatility. I value Holt a lot and wld hate to see him go, but I thought he was gone this past winter to be a part of a bigger package for a SP. I'm still suprised that didn't happen. Having Holt is a luxury I thought we cld trade to upgrade bigger needs and we wld've bedn selling high on him over the winter w/ him coming off his All-Star selection. In my mind, he's still a luxury in the face of bigger needs (Starting Pitching).