2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread

[Bellhorn04]

I thought giving Iggy for Peavy was too high.

 

I think Hill may cost us Devers or Travis & TBall.

 

I want to win now, but not by that much.

 

Peavy was 1.3 years of control though, so that commands a bit more.

 

Also, Iggy has been proven to be no more than a mediocre player (an accumulated bWAR of 2.9 with Detroit.)

Edited July 13, 2016 by Bellhorn04

[Hugh2]

I tend to agree with you in general but calling Travis redundant in the system? Who isn't? I would not trade either Devers or Travis for Hill. Maybe we wouldn't get him. Oh well. We have just a small sample of Travis so far. I like what I saw. He can hit.

 

Perhaps redundant is a bit excessive, but between Shaw and Hanley it's really not an area of need. I'd trade him in a package for a good pitcher any day.

[jacksonianmarch]

Trey Ball is not really much of a prospect anymore. His fastball never developed and is going the way of Henry Owens

[moonslav59]

MLBTR on Groome....

 

 

TODAY: A deal is “getting closer” and “should get done,” a source tells Speier (via Twitter). That being said, a final number has yet to be arrived at between the two sides.

[moonslav59]

Peavy was 1.3 years of control though, so that commands a bit more.

 

Also, Iggy has been proven to be no more than a mediocre player (an accumulated bWAR of 2.9 with Detroit.)

 

I was addressing the point of getting a 4/5 slot pitcher instead of a 1/2 or even solid 3 slot pitcher on Peavy. Yes, the 1.3 years made a big difference.

 

On Iggy's post trade performance, I'll leave that to a longer term evaluation, but clearly Iggy has not done as well as I projected him to do.

 

I never claimed I was always right. I've been wrong quite a bit over the past few years. When I am, I am not afraid to admit to it.

[moonslav59]

I doubt he costs a lot with his injury history, age, and innings.

Devers or Shaw would be a no. Im thinking closer to the last couple trades we made. Rich Hill scares me.

 

Would you give Kopech?

 

Lakins & Dubon?

 

Chavis & T Ball?

 

Basabe & Light?

 

Don't be surprised by what the A's get for Hill.

[Nick]

Yes, that's why I'm saying we should strive for a non-rental.

 

I would trade for Hill in a heartbeat and extend him. It's clear he's a better option than Bucholtz at $13M.

 

Payroll

 

Replace Clay B's $13M with Hill

Repace Ortiz' $15N with Encarnacion.

Replace Koji's $9M

Replace Tazawa's $3M/FA status.

We're under the cap due to removing Castillo off the 40 man roster, savings of approximately $10M

Luxury tax threshhold will increase on December 1...

 

Get Hill without giving up top prospects. Our top 5 remains with Gomes added. Carson Smith returns at mid season. Plug in Benintend, Moncada, Hanley and Encarnacion along with killer B's and Pedey.

 

That looks to be a pretty potent team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nick, YOU DONT REMOVE CASTILLO FROM YOUR BUDGET. How many times do we have to say it

[Bellhorn04]

Nick, YOU DONT REMOVE CASTILLO FROM YOUR BUDGET. How many times do we have to say it

 

Looks like he was only talking about the luxury tax cap though.

[Bellhorn04]

I was addressing the point of getting a 4/5 slot pitcher instead of a 1/2 or even solid 3 slot pitcher on Peavy. Yes, the 1.3 years made a big difference.

 

You pinpointed exactly what they were looking for in Peavy - a solid #3. And that's exactly what he was in 2013.

[jacksonianmarch]

It stays for the lux tax hit as well. It will stay until the contract is over

[Bellhorn04]

It stays for the lux tax hit as well. It will stay until the contract is over

 

I believe the player has to be on the 40-man roster to count toward tax. This was talked about a lot when Allen Craig was taken off the 40-man roster.

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/1/13/10759208/red-sox-allen-craig-offseason-trade-rumors

Edited July 14, 2016 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Yes, Castillo's contract does not count towards the luxury tax budget, but I believe we were over the tax this year by more than Castillo's $11M hit.

 

It's not as simple as replacing this guys salary with another. We have some arbs going up.

[southpaw777]

Would you give Kopech?

 

Lakins & Dubon?

 

Chavis & T Ball?

 

Basabe & Light?

 

Don't be surprised by what the A's get for Hill.

 

The last two options are ok with me. Not Lakins and Doubon...thats too much IMO, but might take that. I wont be surprised if someone overpays, I just hope its not the Sox.

Not really sure I would even want Hill...like I said, he scares me.

[moonslav59]

The last two options are ok with me. Not Lakins and Doubon...thats too much IMO, but might take that. I wont be surprised if someone overpays, I just hope its not the Sox.

Not really sure I would even want Hill...like I said, he scares me.

 

I'd like to have Hill, but I share your concern. I'd hate to lose even Chavis or Basabe then watch Hill stay on the DL.

 

I know the A's would never agree, but my biggest offer would be Owens and Johnson for Hill.

[Jack Flap]

I'd like to have Hill, but I share your concern. I'd hate to lose even Chavis or Basabe then watch Hill stay on the DL.

 

I know the A's would never agree, but my biggest offer would be Owens and Johnson for Hill.

 

I don't think that's a bad offer for the A's necessarily: two guys who were top 100 prospects in the recent past and are currently fraught with problems but could still realistically be back-end starters at some point.

 

Maybe one of the two plus someone like Dubon? Seems like a lot to give for an old rental guy with a lot of health questions, but Hill's resurgence seems to be for real and we will have to compete with a lot of others for his services.

 

Out of all the names above, I think I'd hate to give Basabe most of all, followed by Chavis. They can have Trey any time they want, though.

[Bellhorn04]

FWIW, one of SI's Jay Jaffe's 'bold predictions for second half' is: 'Red Sox will shore up rotation with Pomeranz and win the AL East going away'.

[moonslav59]

I don't think that's a bad offer for the A's necessarily: two guys who were top 100 prospects in the recent past and are currently fraught with problems but could still realistically be back-end starters at some point.

 

Maybe one of the two plus someone like Dubon? Seems like a lot to give for an old rental guy with a lot of health questions, but Hill's resurgence seems to be for real and we will have to compete with a lot of others for his services.

 

Out of all the names above, I think I'd hate to give Basabe most of all, followed by Chavis. They can have Trey any time they want, though.

 

I like Basabe first and Dubon next. Bogey will be FA eligible sooner than we want.

 

Marrero has lost his luster.

 

I'm big on Hernandez, but I'd like to keep SS depth.

[moonslav59]

FWIW, one of SI's Jay Jaffe's 'bold predictions for second half' is: 'Red Sox will shore up rotation with Pomeranz and win the AL East going away'.

 

I'm afraid the return cost will outweigh the benefits on Pomeranz.

 

I'm also concerned about his small sample size of success translating to a longer term success in the AL East.

[a700hitter]

I'm afraid the return cost will outweigh the benefits on Pomeranz.

 

I'm also concerned about his small sample size of success translating to a longer term success in the AL East.

It will not be cheap, but you have to give value to get value.

[Hugh2]

Every once in a while it seems like a team gets two little for an asset or they grossly overpay. So the example is always there to support crazy trade proposals (semi crazy at least). But more often than not, as in almost always a trade has to hurt a little for both sides. Both teams need to feel like they won the trade for it to work.

[cp176]

Perhaps redundant is a bit excessive, but between Shaw and Hanley it's really not an area of need. I'd trade him in a package for a good pitcher any day.

 

For what it is worth, i would trade anyone not named Moncada in our system for that on young starting pitcher. (He just isn't out there right now) I would not give much for Hill I'm afraid.

The arguement about the redundancy of position players i guess i just don't get. The organization has an obligation to play their best players. It is their job to put them on the field.

[moonslav59]

It will not be cheap, but you have to give value to get value.

 

I'm not against giving to get. I'm willing to trade Swihart, Devers, Kopech and others for the right guy.

 

What worries me about Pomeranz is that his sample size of greatness is only the 17 GS'd in 2016. He was pretty good in the minors, but not great. He's played parts of several ML seasons and never wow'd anyone to the extent that he won and kept a rotation slot on teams that have not been all that good for the 6 years he's been in the bigs. He's pitched in pitcher parks the last 3 seasons.

 

Am I the only guy that is concerned about that?

 

I feel like we are looking at Teheran and Pomeranz, because they are available, and we're trying to project greatness onto one of them due to our great need for a quality starter.

 

I'm not saying Pomeranz isn't the real deal. I'm no expert on Padre prospects or players. I think he was rated as high as 30th at one point. If Sox scouts think he has #2 quality, I think the 2.3 years of control make him a worthy target. I realize we will have to overpay for anyone we get at the deadline, and I'm fine with that. I guess I just don't know enough about Pomeranz to be all on board with choosing him as the object of the overpay.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not against giving to get. I'm willing to trade Swihart, Devers, Kopech and others for the right guy.

 

What worries me about Pomeranz is that his sample size of greatness is only the 17 GS'd in 2016. He was pretty good in the minors, but not great. He's played parts of several ML seasons and never wow'd anyone to the extent that he won and kept a rotation slot on teams that have not been all that good for the 6 years he's been in the bigs. He's pitched in pitcher parks the last 3 seasons.

 

Am I the only guy that is concerned about that?

 

I feel like we are looking at Teheran and Pomeranz, because they are available, and we're trying to project greatness onto one of them due to our great need for a quality starter.

 

I'm not saying Pomeranz isn't the real deal. I'm no expert on Padre prospects or players. I think he was rated as high as 30th at one point. If Sox scouts think he has #2 quality, I think the 2.3 years of control make him a worthy target. I realize we will have to overpay for anyone we get at the deadline, and I'm fine with that. I guess I just don't know enough about Pomeranz to be all on board with choosing him as the object of the overpay.

 

 

What pitchers are available that there are no concerns about?

[moonslav59]

For what it is worth, i would trade anyone not named Moncada in our system for that on young starting pitcher. (He just isn't out there right now) I would not give much for Hill I'm afraid.

The arguement about the redundancy of position players i guess i just don't get. The organization has an obligation to play their best players. It is their job to put them on the field.

 

With Papi's pending retirement and a luxury tax budget squeeze likely next year, I think we may really benefit from having both Moncada and Benintendi stick around. Having low cost contributors allow us to overpay in other areas.

 

I understand the argument on redundancy. Even with Papi's retirement, we should have all these players fighting for 3 slots: 3B, 1B and DH:

 

Ramirez

Shaw

Sandoval

Moncada

Hernandez

Travis

Holt

Rutledge

Marrero

 

We could also see a slew of players fighting for the LF slot next year:

Young

Benintendi

Swihart

Holt

Moncada

Castillo

 

The thought is, we don't need that many players for limited open slots, so trading one hurts less than trading from another area of less quality depth.

[a700hitter]

I'm not against giving to get. I'm willing to trade Swihart, Devers, Kopech and others for the right guy.

 

What worries me about Pomeranz is that his sample size of greatness is only the 17 GS'd in 2016. He was pretty good in the minors, but not great. He's played parts of several ML seasons and never wow'd anyone to the extent that he won and kept a rotation slot on teams that have not been all that good for the 6 years he's been in the bigs. He's pitched in pitcher parks the last 3 seasons.

 

Am I the only guy that is concerned about that?

 

I feel like we are looking at Teheran and Pomeranz, because they are available, and we're trying to project greatness onto one of them due to our great need for a quality starter.

 

I'm not saying Pomeranz isn't the real deal. I'm no expert on Padre prospects or players. I think he was rated as high as 30th at one point. If Sox scouts think he has #2 quality, I think the 2.3 years of control make him a worthy target. I realize we will have to overpay for anyone we get at the deadline, and I'm fine with that. I guess I just don't know enough about Pomeranz to be all on board with choosing him as the object of the overpay.

 

if our scouts think that his recent results are a fluke, we will probably not pursue him. It is determinations like this that make quality scouting so important. Stat sheets will not help us in this case.

[Jack Flap]

I like Basabe first and Dubon next. Bogey will be FA eligible sooner than we want.

 

Marrero has lost his luster.

 

I'm big on Hernandez, but I'd like to keep SS depth.

 

Maybe I'm just not extremely high on Dubon. A decent hitting, good glove, no power middle INF is good to have, but I'd trade that guy sooner than someone with more upside.

[mvp 78]

I understand the argument on redundancy. Even with Papi's retirement, we should have all these players fighting for 3 slots: 3B, 1B and DH:

 

Ramirez

Shaw

Sandoval

Moncada

Hernandez

Travis

Holt

Rutledge

Marrero

 

Ramirez doesn't have any power left. He's no longer a 5th hitter. The Sox should move him in the offseason.

Shaw can't hit lefties.

Sandoval isn't physically fit enough to play MLB.

Moncada still hasn't played 1 inning of 3b.

Hernandez is not an MLB starter.

Travis will lose this whole season to injury and wasn't tearing it up beforehand.

Holt can't be relied on to be a starter.

Rutledge is a AAAA player who is an ok backup at best.

Marrero is all glove and no bat which isn't a very good fit for 3b at the moment.

[Jack Flap]

if our scouts think that his recent results are a fluke, we will probably not pursue him. It is determinations like this that make quality scouting so important. Stat sheets will not help us in this case.

 

I agree. Pomeranz is interesting for a lot of reasons, and the Red Sox will really have to do their homework here.

[moonslav59]

What pitchers are available that there are no concerns about?

 

Good point. I'd have minor concerns about anyone, but with Pomeranz, my lack of knowledge about his skillset and his limited sample size of success makes my concern level very high.

 

I can't name anyone known to be available that I want right now.

 

Last winter I focused a lot of attention on trade suggestions targeting Quintana, Salazar and Carrasco, but there's no evidence any of them were seriously "on the block". Guys like Kluber, Sale and Gray would have cost more than what I wanted to give, but I was willing to overpay for someone like them.

 

Now, Quintana and Carrasco's stock has risen, so I doubt that even if they were put on the block, we could get one without giving up Betts, Bogey, JBJ or Moncada (or 2).

 

I realizE my dream may be futile, but I do not want to give up our whole farm or a major fraction of it to get someone I have significant concerns about.