A Realistic View at 2016

[oldtimer]

I think I missed this specific mandate being given Bell. If in fact it was given - great. I sure haven't enjoyed our last place finishes much either. The trades that have been made to date just look like pretty good moves to me. Have I missed something here?

 

Many of DD's acquisitions have been pretty good moves. Ziegler , Kimbrel and Abad in the bullpen and Pomeranz and Price as starting pitching have done well, but all have required adjustment periods. Young was a good move. Not sure if he had anything to do with Leon but if so, that has been a plus overall.

 

Hill and Holaday have missed the boat.

 

All of DD's moves so far have cost us one very good pitching prospect and a boat load of money for Price. All-in all a pretty good scorecard for DD.

[Bellhorn04]

Many of DD's acquisitions have been pretty good moves. Ziegler , Kimbrel and Abad in the bullpen and Pomeranz and Price as starting pitching have done well, but all have required adjustment periods. Young was a good move. Not sure if he had anything to do with Leon but if so, that has been a plus overall.

 

Hill and Holaday have missed the boat.

 

All of DD's moves so far have cost us one very good pitching prospect and a boat load of money for Price. All-in all a pretty good scorecard for DD.

 

Margot was a pretty highly rated prospect.

 

I'm not really knocking DD. Just saying he was obviously given a win now mandate by JH.

[S5Dewey]

Pretty obvious.

 

I just hope it doesn't get out of hand, and if does, we better win!

 

This is, as they say, "the thing". No matter what a team does there's no guarantee that they're going to win. Right now, as Sox fans, we're all saying that this is a flawed team but if The Sox make the playoffs "anything can happen". Well, every team is saying that - because it's true. Anything can happen and any team can win it all.

 

Ten team teams make the playoffs right now but only one of them is going to win the WS. Baseball being a game of inches, sometimes a game is decided by an inch or two on a ball fair or foul, a bad (or a good) bounce, or one AB. It's good to have a "Win" mentality but going all-out to win in one year is a mistake just because of the oddities of the game. Just look at the 2013 Tigers. Look at that roster and tell me why that team shouldn't have won the 2013 World Series. But they didn't because "anything can happen". Thanks, Iggy.

 

I like what DD has done and what he hasn't done. Had he been going "all-out" we'd be without JBJ and/or some other player(s) in return for a short term rental. Instead he's acquired a group of players who can make a run at it this year and for the next few years and at the same time kept several key prospects just in case things don't work out with our core group.

 

Trying to keep things in perspective, after what's happened in the past two seasons I'm very happy that the Sox are where they are this year and I like where they are in 2017. Sure, I'd like to win it all this year (and every year!) but at the end of the 2015 season the Sox were flat on their backs, and as the old saying goes, "you've got to crawl before you can walk".

[moonslav59]

I think I missed this specific mandate being given Bell. If in fact it was given - great. I sure haven't enjoyed our last place finishes much either. The trades that have been made to date just look like pretty good moves to me. Have I missed something here?

 

Kimbrel has certainly made our pen much better, but had we not made the trade, we would have signed or traded for someone less expensive and not lost several prospects at the same time. Sure, the deal made us better right now, but have these?

 

Miley for Smith (injured) and Elias (12.91 ERA)

 

Wilkerson & Rijo for Aaron Hill (.512 OPS)

 

Basabe & Almonte for Ziegler (1.263 WHIP, 43% Sv rate and 33% inherited runners scored- both worse than league averages)

 

Espinoza for Pomeranz (has done well for us)

 

Pat Light for Abad (5.00 ERA)

 

The Pomeranz and Ziegler trades have made us better now, despite their troubles in a couple games, but I wouldn't say DD's trades have "looked pretty good".

 

All trades and signings have to be taken into the context of what else was available and at what cost. Clearly, adding Price and Kimbrel have made us better in 2016. Carson Smith was likely to as well, and you can't blame DD for his injury, but you can't also say the trade has worked for us thus far either.

 

I haven't given up on this year. Price and Kimbrel are both key elements of us having any chance at winning in Papi's final year. I get the win now philosophy. When you're rich, you can afford to take chances with the future knowing your fall back is always there- buy your way out of each mess created. I'm not sure one can argue that has worked out too well for us since the Crawford signing and Beckett extension. Relying on a strategy that has failed us miserably of late, is scary to me.

 

Edited August 31, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Margot was a pretty highly rated prospect.

 

I'm not really knocking DD. Just saying he was obviously given a win now mandate by JH.

 

Guerra was rated highly as well, and he was still rated 85th in one mid season ranking list despite his poor season .

[moonslav59]

This is, as they say, "the thing". No matter what a team does there's no guarantee that they're going to win. Right now, as Sox fans, we're all saying that this is a flawed team but if The Sox make the playoffs "anything can happen". Well, every team is saying that - because it's true. Anything can happen and any team can win it all.

 

Ten team teams make the playoffs right now but only one of them is going to win the WS. Baseball being a game of inches, sometimes a game is decided by an inch or two on a ball fair or foul, a bad (or a good) bounce, or one AB. It's good to have a "Win" mentality but going all-out to win in one year is a mistake just because of the oddities of the game. Just look at the 2013 Tigers. Look at that roster and tell me why that team shouldn't have won the 2013 World Series. But they didn't because "anything can happen". Thanks, Iggy.

 

I like what DD has done and what he hasn't done. Had he been going "all-out" we'd be without JBJ and/or some other player(s) in return for a short term rental. Instead he's acquired a group of players who can make a run at it this year and for the next few years and at the same time kept several key prospects just in case things don't work out with our core group.

 

Trying to keep things in perspective, after what's happened in the past two seasons I'm very happy that the Sox are where they are this year and I like where they are in 2017. Sure, I'd like to win it all this year (and every year!) but at the end of the 2015 season the Sox were flat on their backs, and as the old saying goes, "you've got to crawl before you can walk".

 

I think DD has tried to walk the fine line, so far. He's made some big deals that I disagree with, but that made sense for the "win now" philosophy. He's kept all of our very best young talent, except for the highly speculative, very young Espinoza. My point about "getting out of hand" was geared more towards what DD will do this winter. Our extended future is on the fence right now.

Edited August 31, 2016 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

This is, as they say, "the thing". No matter what a team does there's no guarantee that they're going to win. Right now, as Sox fans, we're all saying that this is a flawed team but if The Sox make the playoffs "anything can happen". Well, every team is saying that - because it's true. Anything can happen and any team can win it all.

 

Ten team teams make the playoffs right now but only one of them is going to win the WS. Baseball being a game of inches, sometimes a game is decided by an inch or two on a ball fair or foul, a bad (or a good) bounce, or one AB. It's good to have a "Win" mentality but going all-out to win in one year is a mistake just because of the oddities of the game. Just look at the 2013 Tigers. Look at that roster and tell me why that team shouldn't have won the 2013 World Series. But they didn't because "anything can happen". Thanks, Iggy.

 

I like what DD has done and what he hasn't done. Had he been going "all-out" we'd be without JBJ and/or some other player(s) in return for a short term rental. Instead he's acquired a group of players who can make a run at it this year and for the next few years and at the same time kept several key prospects just in case things don't work out with our core group.

 

Trying to keep things in perspective, after what's happened in the past two seasons I'm very happy that the Sox are where they are this year and I like where they are in 2017. Sure, I'd like to win it all this year (and every year!) but at the end of the 2015 season the Sox were flat on their backs, and as the old saying goes, "you've got to crawl before you can walk".

 

Ah, metaphor time. and the baseball season is a marathon. Do we have too many middle distance runners? But have no fear, the cream will rise to the top. What does that say about the rest? Old Yogi imparted the wisdom, "It ain't over til it's over". Cmon guys, stay the course.

[sk7326]

He'd have been signed to about as long as Price was, so to me, if our budget was truly "limitless", we'd have signed both Lester and Scherzer and then Price the next year.

 

Budgets are budgets - money allocated on the Red Sox (as opposed to media properties, or Six Flags Fenway or whatever). And like any business, the Sox operate with a budget in mind - the number that corresponds to the amount of money the owners want to spend on the team. Now in their business evaluation, Lester was just not worth the money, and Scherzer was not either (now these evals were made before Dombrowski took the wheel). Now if they wanted those pitchers, they could have looked to raise the budget. The revenue streams that a team with a low debt ballpark and a TV channel that is available anywhere someone has cable - are vast and can support a budget increase. If the Red Sox make decisions not to sign someone - or not to pay luxury tax - it is a choice. It is not because it would put the ownership to the felt or anything even close.

[sk7326]

the front office pressuring the GM to acquire guys to win now is idiotic, they need to be patient, or else we'll end up with more s***** deals like castillo/pablo.

 

I think they can do both without much difficulty.

 

The Price signing was solid - you pay a bit more to win an auction (it is why almost all UFA deals are losers), and the contract is written in a way that the commitment is much less than the headline number (especially if Price pitches well). And Price has had a tricky transition year which while uneven has not done anything to reasonably lower optimism that he will perform well in 2017 or 2018 (at least).

 

The Kimbrel trade was not one I liked, but one I got. The prospects were blocked to a degree, and Kimbrel was best in class with some team control. Now personally, I don't think the marginal difference between Kimbrel and somebody average was all that much (a commentary on the job, not the pitchers) - but they got a good pitcher back.

 

The Pomeranz trade is one I thought was expensive, but again - low level (on the farm) pitching is so volatile compared to crackerjack position players that if you can help get young quality controlled talent to the major league level, you have to listen. San Diego had to love the deal because you just don't get Espinoza's sort of ceiling every day, and that is fine when you are as far from being good as they are. There is a chance this ends up like the Beckett deal where Espinoza ends up an elite guy by 2020, and people on forums this will whine about how we can't develop quality pitching and let good guys go - although the major league value Pomeranz could deliver might end up being quite good. I've mellowed on this deal some for sure.

[S5Dewey]

Kimbrel has certainly made our pen much better, but had we not made the trade, we would have signed or traded for someone less expensive and not lost several prospects at the same time. Sure, the deal made us better right now, but have these?

 

Miley for Smith (injured) and Elias (12.91 ERA)

 

Wilkerson & Rijo for Aaron Hill (.512 OPS)

 

Basabe & Almonte for Ziegler (1.263 WHIP, 43% Sv rate and 33% inherited runners scored- both worse than league averages)

 

Espinoza for Pomeranz (has done well for us)

 

Pat Light for Abad (5.00 ERA)

 

The Pomeranz and Ziegler trades have made us better now, despite their troubles in a couple games, but I wouldn't say DD's trades have "looked pretty good".

 

All trades and signings have to be taken into the context of what else was available and at what cost. Clearly, adding Price and Kimbrel have made us better in 2016. Carson Smith was likely to as well, and you can't blame DD for his injury, but you can't also say the trade has worked for us thus far either.

 

I haven't given up on this year. Price and Kimbrel are both key elements of us having any chance at winning in Papi's final year. I get the win now philosophy. When you're rich, you can afford to take chances with the future knowing your fall back is always there- buy your way out of each mess created. I'm not sure one can argue that has worked out too well for us since the Crawford signing and Beckett extension. Relying on a strategy that has failed us miserably of late, is scary to me.

 

 

Treading lightly because I know better than to disagree with Moon, But....

 

Ok, Elias has a 12.91 ERA but Wade Miley with his 7.12 ERA hasn't exactly been making the Mariners forget about Felix, either. Neither of those guys are valuable. The value may come from Carson Smith so we can't really say this has been a BAD trade.

 

Wilkerson & Rio for Aaron Hill Wilkerson is 27 years old and has an ERA of 6.xx in Colorado Springs. Not exactly the kind of guy you lose sleep over losing. OK, Hill hasn't been much but he's at least given us options at 3B occasionally, which we need.

 

Basabe & Almonte for Ziegler Basabe and Almonte are both prospects and while one of them will work out neither of them are going to be All-Stars. We were struggling to find BP help at the time of the trade and while Zeigler has had his ups and downs he's also been inserted into and pitched his way out of some tough situations. I'm not sure his Inherited Runners Scored is a good representation of what his efforts have been. I also think his upside is strong because "all" he needs to do is learn to find the plate more.

 

Espinoza for Pomeranz This is the one we may get our asses kicked on. Or not. Pom has done better than I expected, and Espinoza is years away. Given the fact that we needed SP at the time of the trade I'm not shedding tears over this one ... yet. IMO the jury is still out.

 

Pat Light for Abad I'm far from being a fan of Abad. IIRC it was Dojii who immediately referred to him as "ADreadful" and that appears to be spot-on. Pat Light is carrying around an 8.44 ERA. But at the end of the day this is two guys who aren't helping their team being traded for one another.

 

I'm not ready to say that all of DD's trades have helped the team, but other than the Miley/Smith trade I don't see any that have hurt the team. "Not having hurt the team" is a low bar but it IS a bar, and it's one that many GM's don't clear. One of my criticisms of Ben is that he was hoarding prospects while the team was finishing last. At least DD is making an effort. In my mind that's better than standing pat and watching the team circling the drain.

[S5Dewey]

Ah, metaphor time. and the baseball season is a marathon. Do we have too many middle distance runners? But have no fear, the cream will rise to the top. What does that say about the rest? Old Yogi imparted the wisdom, "It ain't over til it's over". Cmon guys, stay the course.

 

So are you disputing my point or my phraseology?

[sk7326]

So are you disputing my point or my phraseology?

 

The org had a distinct surplus of Luis A Basabes.

[Bellhorn04]

The Pomeranz trade is one I thought was expensive, but again - low level (on the farm) pitching is so volatile compared to crackerjack position players that if you can help get young quality controlled talent to the major league level, you have to listen.

 

I just want to say I love the word crackerjack.

[moonslav59]

I'm not ready to say that all of DD's trades have helped the team, but other than the Miley/Smith trade I don't see any that have hurt the team. "Not having hurt the team" is a low bar but it IS a bar, and it's one that many GM's don't clear. One of my criticisms of Ben is that he was hoarding prospects while the team was finishing last. At least DD is making an effort. In my mind that's better than standing pat and watching the team circling the drain.

 

Of course none have "hurt the team" so far, because we traded prospects in every deal except for Miley- who by the way, would have done better than O'Sullivan/Owens, but I get your point. We would not have kept Miley as our 6/7th starter and Smith got hurt, but I was responding to the statement that so far, DD's trades have been "pretty good". The Smith trade was the only deal not made for "the now" by giving up some "future", so in some ways, that deal should not even be linked to the others.

 

I totally understand why we made each and every trade. Most did or were meant to strengthen our team now, and in some cases like the Pomeranz deal, for the next couple years as well, at the expense of trading away possible future assets that may or may not amount to a hill or beans or some astronomical super stud. I think with the Pomeranz trade, we have come close to the point where the balance would shift too much towards the now and too far from the future. I had hoped that trading away all the quality prospects we have recently would have netted us an ace, instead of a RP'er and a low 2-3- high 4 slot starter like Pomeranz. That's my own personal preference.

 

Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Smith are all here for 2 more years, so the deals were made for a little extended "here and now". I like that about the deals. Pomeranz does not cost much, so if we were able to fix our rotation for the next 2 years by acquiring him, then our precious remaining resources can be spent elsewhere. That could be very good as well, assuming we spend wisely.

 

I think we can afford to trade Swihart and Devers and maybe some mid-level pitchers like Johnson or Owens, but anything more, and we've gone too far towards the "now" (in my opinion).

[cp176]

The whole idea of the phrasing labeling any of the moves this year as urgent or win now in my opinion is ridiculous. They were all moves made to help us win of course but displayed no sense of urgency at all - once again in my opinion. I get the fact that some people hate to see young players moved for whatever reason but Margot would be the only one who might help anyone soon. It is an arguement I am done with because in all honesty it has nothing to do with the players that we moved - it has everything to do with people being dissatisfied with the return. I am not. When he makes a move that is really urgent in nature or appears to be a win now move, I bet that we will all recognize it.

[moonslav59]

The whole idea of the phrasing labeling any of the moves this year as urgent or win now in my opinion is ridiculous. They were all moves made to help us win of course but displayed no sense of urgency at all - once again in my opinion. I get the fact that some people hate to see young players moved for whatever reason but Margot would be the only one who might help anyone soon. It is an arguement I am done with because in all honesty it has nothing to do with the players that we moved - it has everything to do with people being dissatisfied with the return. I am not. When he makes a move that is really urgent in nature or appears to be a win now move, I bet that we will all recognize it.

 

To me, it's not all about trading away top prospects. I have suggested many trades with more prospects than the ones we have already dealt. It is about what we got back.

 

I like Kimbrel and Pomeranz, but to me an ace was a higher priority.

 

I like Kimbrel, but his high contractual cost should have minimized what we had to give up.

 

I like Pomeranz and his low cost, but I was super high on Espi- my own personal favorite.

 

In general, I don't think trading 4 prospects for a RP'er is a winning strategy, even though Kimbrel was a top 3 closer. The high contract cost was the tipping point, in my opinion, to making it a bad trade.

 

I do think the trades were made in large part to not wanting to finish last again, and so it was about "win now", but thankfully, the "now" is 2 more years longs as Kimbrel and Pomeranz will be here through 2018.

 

I'm not sure how the trades can have "nothing to do with the players we moved". Of course, what we gave up matters and likely will matter more 3-7 years from now.

[cp176]

Treading lightly because I know better than to disagree with Moon, But....

 

Ok, Elias has a 12.91 ERA but Wade Miley with his 7.12 ERA hasn't exactly been making the Mariners forget about Felix, either. Neither of those guys are valuable. The value may come from Carson Smith so we can't really say this has been a BAD trade.

 

Wilkerson & Rio for Aaron Hill Wilkerson is 27 years old and has an ERA of 6.xx in Colorado Springs. Not exactly the kind of guy you lose sleep over losing. OK, Hill hasn't been much but he's at least given us options at 3B occasionally, which we need.

 

Basabe & Almonte for Ziegler Basabe and Almonte are both prospects and while one of them will work out neither of them are going to be All-Stars. We were struggling to find BP help at the time of the trade and while Zeigler has had his ups and downs he's also been inserted into and pitched his way out of some tough situations. I'm not sure his Inherited Runners Scored is a good representation of what his efforts have been. I also think his upside is strong because "all" he needs to do is learn to find the plate more.

 

Espinoza for Pomeranz This is the one we may get our asses kicked on. Or not. Pom has done better than I expected, and Espinoza is years away. Given the fact that we needed SP at the time of the trade I'm not shedding tears over this one ... yet. IMO the jury is still out.

 

Pat Light for Abad I'm far from being a fan of Abad. IIRC it was Dojii who immediately referred to him as "ADreadful" and that appears to be spot-on. Pat Light is carrying around an 8.44 ERA. But at the end of the day this is two guys who aren't helping their team being traded for one another.

 

I'm not ready to say that all of DD's trades have helped the team, but other than the Miley/Smith trade I don't see any that have hurt the team. "Not having hurt the team" is a low bar but it IS a bar, and it's one that many GM's don't clear. One of my criticisms of Ben is that he was hoarding prospects while the team was finishing last. At least DD is making an effort. In my mind that's better than standing pat and watching the team circling the drain.

 

I agree with all of this. I would just say that if and I realize that it is a big if - The Smith for Miley deal could have worked out beautifully for us and still might. None of those trades looked urgent. They all looked to be good solid moves designed to help us now but over the course of the next few years as well. Losing Espinoza may eventually look bad for us but I don't see how anyone could truly predict what he will become. It is going to be a while. If Pomeranz continues to pitch as he has I will be very satisfied.

[mvp 78]

The org had a distinct surplus of Luis A Basabes.

 

You can never have too many Luis A Basabes. I prefer redundancy in Luis A Basabes.

[mvp 78]

The fact that the Basabes switched numbers this preseason just to mess with people makes me a little warm on the inside, but sad that they will never be able to do it again.

[sk7326]

You can never have too many Luis A Basabes. I prefer redundancy in Luis A Basabes.

 

i definitely am concerned that we lost our league lead in this category

[moonslav59]

i definitely am concerned that we lost our league lead in this category

 

Wlel, we're still tied for first!

[cp176]

To me, it's not all about trading away top prospects. I have suggested many trades with more prospects than the ones we have already dealt. It is about what we got back.

 

I like Kimbrel and Pomeranz, but to me an ace was a higher priority.

 

I like Kimbrel, but his high contractual cost should have minimized what we had to give up.

 

I like Pomeranz and his low cost, but I was super high on Espi- my own personal favorite.

 

In general, I don't think trading 4 prospects for a RP'er is a winning strategy, even though Kimbrel was a top 3 closer. The high contract cost was the tipping point, in my opinion, to making it a bad trade.

 

I do think the trades were made in large part to not wanting to finish last again, and so it was about "win now", but thankfully, the "now" is 2 more years longs as Kimbrel and Pomeranz will be here through 2018.

 

I'm not sure how the trades can have "nothing to do with the players we moved". Of course, what we gave up matters and likely will matter more 3-7 years from now.

 

Winning now or finishing last - really? No in between for you? For me, the moves looked like an honest attempt to put the best team that they could on the field. Quite honestly it is something that should be done every year. Margot looks like he might - and I emphasize might - be a legit prospect. As for the rest, you say great potential, I might say not so much. As far as Espinoza goes, who in the hell really knows. I'll reiterate - you did not like the the guts of the trades. I did. Once again - your opinion and mine. You like yours - I like mine.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm not a Dombrowski fan by any means, but I have to admit his moves have stabilized the rotation and not prevented the emergence of a pretty darn good lineup. He let Farrell bench Sandoval. He failed to fix the bullpen, but it wasn't for lack of trying. As for selling the farm--trading away prospects--I honestly am not worried. Espinoza might turn out to be an ace, but to me that is very much a long shot and I'll settle for Pomeranz now if he can keep it up. We kept Betts, JBJ, Benintendi, Moncada, Leon, Vazquez, and some others, which is plenty in my eyes. I remember our great angst at losing the greatest SS ever named Iglesias and now think he was no loss at all, especially when he is so injury-prone and something of a prima donna (something we signs of before he was traded). We lost HanRam to Miami after the 2005 season, but got Josh Beckett, who was key to the 2007 WS win. We lost Rizzo, now a star with the Cubs, but we got AGon, who was and still is very, very good.

 

I do think giving Price the 3d or 4th largest annual salary in the history of MLB is absurd, but it seems to fit the Sox budget. Isn't he getting more per year than ARod ever did and close to what Stanton is getting?

[Nick]

DD has done a great job. He identified the problems and he made sure to get the guys he wanted to solve the problems. Did he overpay? Probably but we have the hindsight to be critical of his trades.

 

After finishing dead last the last two years, and despite many frustrating moments, we are in the playoff chase. We are actually in it if the season ended today. They are still fun to watch.

 

At some point, players have to perform.

 

Price struggled early and often but seems to be coming around. Porcello has been our ace this year. Wright is beginning to unravel. His post All Star game performance has been shaky. E Rod finally came around but now has to re-establish himself after tweaking his itty bitte thigh muscle. Pomeranz also seems to be getting stronger. He's throwing close to 90 pitches this late in the season, a feat many of you questioned. He now gets to the sixth inning comfortably.

 

Koji got hurt, Smith got hurt amd Tazawa has chronic excuse of being over used, Abad definitely has a name that fits him. Barnes looks like a big pussy on the mound. Buchholtz looks bewildered, definitely has internal struggles, not knowing what skit and what character he is playing in In Living Colors. Whatever the radar gun shows when Kelly throws, the exit speed of the ball off the bat is always twice as fast, Ziegler needs to learn to play another position so that he can stay in the game while lefty bats, then move back to pitch to right handers. Ross Jr definitely has better glove in the pen than throwing arm on the mound, and Kimbrel, well Moon will always pissed off at him because we emptied our farm system to acquire him.

 

I can see why Detroit bullpen sucked. DD must have pissed off bullpen god at some point.

 

Stat of the Day.........Tazawa allowed his 13th of his last 15 inherited runners to score. Was he feeling little tired today after a night game?

Edited September 1, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

DD has done a great job. He identified the problems and he made sure to get the guys he wanted to solve the problems. Did he overpay? Probably but we have the hindsight to be critical of his trades.

 

I was critical before a game was played.

 

I get that the trades made us much better now. I'm glad we have a chance to win in Papi's final year. I'm glad the players we got are here for 2 more years. I'm glad we still have our best young players.

 

I'm worried DD may go too far this next winter. I'm worried we have already traded away too much without getting close enough for a ring. While I'm glad we are competitive, and I think we still have a good chance at winning the AL pennant, I'm worried about our direction and long term future.

 

DD deserves more time before we judge him definitively, but I can't say I think he done a good job let alone a great one.

 

[Eddy Ballgame]

To me, it's not all about trading away top prospects. I have suggested many trades with more prospects than the ones we have already dealt. It is about what we got back.

 

I like Kimbrel and Pomeranz, but to me an ace was a higher priority.

 

I like Kimbrel, but his high contractual cost should have minimized what we had to give up.

 

I like Pomeranz and his low cost, but I was super high on Espi- my own personal favorite.

 

In general, I don't think trading 4 prospects for a RP'er is a winning strategy, even though Kimbrel was a top 3 closer. The high contract cost was the tipping point, in my opinion, to making it a bad trade.

 

I do think the trades were made in large part to not wanting to finish last again, and so it was about "win now", but thankfully, the "now" is 2 more years longs as Kimbrel and Pomeranz will be here through 2018.

 

I'm not sure how the trades can have "nothing to do with the players we moved". Of course, what we gave up matters and likely will matter more 3-7 years from now.

 

Looking at what relievers are making right now, and what the projections are for reliever salaries will be moving forward, Craig Kimbrel's salary may prove to be an absolute bargain. Let's see what Chapman signs for this off season. I'm pretty sure Kimbrel will no longer be considered a guy who has a "high contract." I'm sure that Dombrowski and company were well aware of this when they made the trade.

[moonslav59]

Ben left us a nice nucleus of talent- much of it young and much of it still potential. I was pretty certain he was going to deal some of the talent away last winter, and I was never for keeping it all either. I've already beaten the dead horse on why I disliked most of the trades and signings, but they all had good reasons to be made. I'm not out to bash DD. I'm just saying I'm worried he may go too far on trading away our future going forward.

 

There is really not much roster construction left to do. Most of our positions are locked up for 2, 3 or more years. The luxury tax should go up this winter, and we lose some salary. We'll have about $30M to spend to stay near the luxury limit but may go over, if necessary. Our only sure high priority this winter is the bull pen. Sure, I'd love to get an ace, but Pomeranz has filled out our rotation at a pretty low cost. We still have some question marks with the rotation, but Kopech looks like he may fill that need a couple years from now. Kelly, Johnson and Owens are not promising 6th starters anymore, so 1 injury (or off year) could unravel the rotation.

 

Overall, I'm still happy where we are. Here's a look at team control at each position:

 

C: Leon & Vazquez 3 years/ Swihart 4+ years

1B: HanRam 2-3 yrs

2B: Pedroia 5 yrs

SS: Bogey 3 yrs

3B: Moncada 5+ yrs

3B/1B: Shaw 4+ yrs

3B/DH: Pablo 3 yrs

LF: Beni 4+ yrs

CF: JBJ 4 yrs

RF: Betts 4 yrs

OF/DH: Young 1 yr

Utility: Holt 3 yrs

 

SP: Price 2 or 6 yrs

SP: Porcello 3 yrs

SP: Pomeranz 2 yrs

SP: Wright 4 yrs

SP: ERod 4+ yrs

SP: Kelly 2 yrs

RP: Kimbrell 2 yrs

RP: Smith 4 yrs

RP: Ross 2 yrs

RP: Abad 1 yr

RP: Barnes 4+ yrs

RP: Hembree 4+ yrs

RP: Elias 4 yrs

RP: Workman 3 yrs

 

Last year under contract:

Ortiz

Uehara

Ziegler

Tazawa

Hill

 

1 more option year:

Buchholz

Hanigan

 

 

[Navafan29]

According to mlb.com's postseason probabilities in the standings, the Red Sox have an 84% chance to make the playoffs, but the Orioles only have a 41% chance! Seems like a massive gap for two teams only a couple games apart. It's probably due to remaining schedule and projected performance.

[sk7326]

According to mlb.com's postseason probabilities in the standings, the Red Sox have an 84% chance to make the playoffs, but the Orioles only have a 41% chance! Seems like a massive gap for two teams only a couple games apart. It's probably due to remaining schedule and projected performance.

 

Yes - our run differential will reflect positively in simulation exercises

[Hugh2]

Ben left us a nice nucleus of talent- much of it young and much of it still potential. I was pretty certain he was going to deal some of the talent away last winter, and I was never for keeping it all either. I've already beaten the dead horse on why I disliked most of the trades and signings, but they all had good reasons to be made. I'm not out to bash DD. I'm just saying I'm worried he may go too far on trading away our future going forward.

 

There is really not much roster construction left to do. Most of our positions are locked up for 2, 3 or more years. The luxury tax should go up this winter, and we lose some salary. We'll have about $30M to spend to stay near the luxury limit but may go over, if necessary. Our only sure high priority this winter is the bull pen. Sure, I'd love to get an ace, but Pomeranz has filled out our rotation at a pretty low cost. We still have some question marks with the rotation, but Kopech looks like he may fill that need a couple years from now. Kelly, Johnson and Owens are not promising 6th starters anymore, so 1 injury (or off year) could unravel the rotation.

 

Overall, I'm still happy where we are. Here's a look at team control at each position:

 

C: Leon & Vazquez 3 years/ Swihart 4+ years

1B: HanRam 2-3 yrs

2B: Pedroia 5 yrs

SS: Bogey 3 yrs

3B: Moncada 5+ yrs

3B/1B: Shaw 4+ yrs

3B/DH: Pablo 3 yrs

LF: Beni 4+ yrs

CF: JBJ 4 yrs

RF: Betts 4 yrs

OF/DH: Young 1 yr

Utility: Holt 3 yrs

 

SP: Price 2 or 6 yrs

SP: Porcello 3 yrs

SP: Pomeranz 2 yrs

SP: Wright 4 yrs

SP: ERod 4+ yrs

SP: Kelly 2 yrs

RP: Kimbrell 2 yrs

RP: Smith 4 yrs

RP: Ross 2 yrs

RP: Abad 1 yr

RP: Barnes 4+ yrs

RP: Hembree 4+ yrs

RP: Elias 4 yrs

RP: Workman 3 yrs

 

Last year under contract:

Ortiz

Uehara

Ziegler

Tazawa

Hill

 

1 more option year:

Buchholz

Hanigan

 

 

 

With a few Caveats such as Pablo Sandoval, there's an ever shrinking body of evidence against Ben C. being a horrible GM.