A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

2016 Splits

 

vs RHP (90+ PAs)

1.124 Ortiz

.950 JBJ (.791 in 2015)

.918 Betts (.851 career)

.854 Bogey (.735 in 2015)

.844 Shaw (.801 career)

.840 Pedey

.775 Holt

.734 Young (.585 in 2015)

[.727 Swihart career]

[.590 Vazquez career]

 

vs LHP (35+ PAs)

1.233 Leon

1.069 Ramirez

1.042 Young (.972 in 2015)

.876 Bogey (.892 in 2015)

.797 JBJ (.918 in 2015)

.791 Ortiz

.771 Vazquez (.643 career)

.770 Betts (.821 career)

.703 Pedroia

.685 Brentz

.618 Shaw(.794 career)

.721 Ramirez

[.673 Swihart career]

 

AWAY (55+ PAs)

1.091 Young

.853 Ortiz

.826 Betts

.818 JBJ

.801 Bogey

.799 Pedey

.778 Ramirez

.741 Holt

.662 Shaw

.626 Vazquez

 

HOME

1.179 Ortiz

.971 JBJ

.941 Betts

.937 Leon

.903 Bogey

.889 Shaw

.826 Ramirez

.826 Pedroia

.710 Holt

.681 Young

.552 Vazquez

 

Edited August 4, 2016 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Sox outside looking in for the playoffs for the first time in a long time this season. The west coast is always a killer for them and they still have one more swing to go.

[Redrojo]

According to Espn Stats my Red Sox are 3-30 when they score 3 runs or less.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Espn Stats my Red Sox are 3-30 when they score 3 runs or less.

 

That's pretty bad, but stats like this don't mean much unless you show the same number for every other team.

[Slasher9]

Sox outside looking in for the playoffs for the first time in a long time this season. The west coast is always a killer for them and they still have one more swing to go.

 

try not to sound so giddy about it.....

[mvp 78]

try not to sound so giddy about it.....

 

Get used to it.

[oldtimer]

Don't know where to put this one but it is one old fan's perspective on how things are working out.

 

in 1978. Myself and my older brothers followed his lead with me becoming old enough to be a fan in the late 1940’s. I have been blessed to see some individually great players and some excellent teams along the way. To me, there are things which are probably obvious to others but worth mentioning in my view.

 

1. ML baseball is a very competitive game. To do well and reach the playoffs, a team needs to win around 25 or more games than they lose. Teams with the financial resources to afford costly FA’s and maintain a solid farm system have the advantage although they still need a smart front office and good day to day management. The 2016 version of the Red Sox has a good mix of speed, defensive and offensive talent and reasonable pitching and has a shot at making the playoffs. The front office this year has done their share of providing incremental improvements and filling voids created through injuries. DD has been bold but hasn’t thrown away the store with his moves.

2. This is an imperfect world and we shouldn’t expect perfection from players or managers. Good hitters make outs more often than not and fielders make errors. Players can be playing with injuries, have outside issues or the opposition may have found weaknesses. Those players need to overcome their problems and make adjustment or otherwise face being replaced by their betters. Good coaching can help these players but it still up to them to find answers. In modern times, fans seem to be in love with stats, and they are meaningful, but these are humans playing out there and they need to have positive feelings to give their best.

The manager on the other hand has to do what he can to keep the club house positive and to make lineup cards, and moves to win games while making certain he doesn’t wear out his players. It is a tough job and fans realize poor choices can ruin any chances of making the playoffs. If a manager causes a team to lose 5 or 6 games during the year due to his actions or inactions, it is very difficult to make that up in the competitive baseball environment. Is Farrell better or worse at managing than anyone else we might have? For that we have to let the season play out and see if the team plays to its expected capabilities.

3. Baseball is a young man’s game and only a few of the very best last well into their 30’s. We need to accept that youngsters will arise from the minors to take on meaningful roles. Our coaches are the best evaluators of these kids and they should be listened to. Benintendi was brought up because they think he is a better alternative to what was available. Let’s hope they were right. Maybe he can give us a game or two we wouldn’t have won with the alternative players.

[cp176]

Don't know where to put this one but it is one old fan's perspective on how things are working out.

 

in 1978. Myself and my older brothers followed his lead with me becoming old enough to be a fan in the late 1940’s. I have been blessed to see some individually great players and some excellent teams along the way. To me, there are things which are probably obvious to others but worth mentioning in my view.

 

1. ML baseball is a very competitive game. To do well and reach the playoffs, a team needs to win around 25 or more games than they lose. Teams with the financial resources to afford costly FA’s and maintain a solid farm system have the advantage although they still need a smart front office and good day to day management. The 2016 version of the Red Sox has a good mix of speed, defensive and offensive talent and reasonable pitching and has a shot at making the playoffs. The front office this year has done their share of providing incremental improvements and filling voids created through injuries. DD has been bold but hasn’t thrown away the store with his moves.

2. This is an imperfect world and we shouldn’t expect perfection from players or managers. Good hitters make outs more often than not and fielders make errors. Players can be playing with injuries, have outside issues or the opposition may have found weaknesses. Those players need to overcome their problems and make adjustment or otherwise face being replaced by their betters. Good coaching can help these players but it still up to them to find answers. In modern times, fans seem to be in love with stats, and they are meaningful, but these are humans playing out there and they need to have positive feelings to give their best.

The manager on the other hand has to do what he can to keep the club house positive and to make lineup cards, and moves to win games while making certain he doesn’t wear out his players. It is a tough job and fans realize poor choices can ruin any chances of making the playoffs. If a manager causes a team to lose 5 or 6 games during the year due to his actions or inactions, it is very difficult to make that up in the competitive baseball environment. Is Farrell better or worse at managing than anyone else we might have? For that we have to let the season play out and see if the team plays to its expected capabilities.

3. Baseball is a young man’s game and only a few of the very best last well into their 30’s. We need to accept that youngsters will arise from the minors to take on meaningful roles. Our coaches are the best evaluators of these kids and they should be listened to. Benintendi was brought up because they think he is a better alternative to what was available. Let’s hope they were right. Maybe he can give us a game or two we wouldn’t have won with the alternative players.

 

Liked reading your post and agree with what you have to say. Our current schedule is just about as bad as it gets. I really like this current team but I will say that it just seems to me that there is still a missing piece or two here. Overall we are young but regardless of age, there just seems to be something that they need that they do not have. I think Benintendi very well might give us a lift but alone I would be surprised pleasantly if his contributions would be enough to get us over the top. Statistically maybe it looks as though the pieces are all right there, but they still have to be ahead at the end of the game in order to win it. 85/86 win team this season i see. Getting better and hopefully will continue to do so in the future.

[Nick]

This season, Red Sox left fielders as a unit are 15th in the league with a .739 OPS, and haven’t been very good with the leather. Brock Holt has been trying to fill in for Chris Young’s .288 TAv, but neither his .259 mark or Bryce Brentz’s .257 TAv have come close to replicating that. It’s been a long, gradual slope downhill for that position.

 

That’s where Benintendi comes in. The Red Sox probably didn’t want to bring him up this early, but with no clear options available to them and Chris Young still a ways off, it was worth a shot. He immediately gives the Red Sox an outfielder who can actually play the position. Holt’s value comes in playing multiple positions acceptably, not a single one well, and Brentz, well……let’s just say fielding isn’t his strong suit. Benintendi has much better chops than both of them in the field.

 

Speaking of Holt, Benintendi’s call-up might have shown that the Red Sox have finally learned their lesson with Brock Holt in the second half. See, he’s usually pretty good for three months, give or take a couple weeks. Once the second half starts, he’s not so great:

 

I endorse this article by Baseball Prospects; What's troubling is John Farrell fully endorsing Holt as the starting LF in April. Maybe he just didn't mention that it's only good until the All Star break.

Edited August 4, 2016 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I endorse this article by Baseball Prospects; What's troubling is John Farrell fully endorsing Holt as the starting LF in April. Maybe he just didn't mention that it's only good until the All Star break.

 

Holt was a better choice for starting LF in April than Castillo. I don't think Holt's name was engraved in stone though.

[illinoisredsox]

That's pretty bad, but stats like this don't mean much unless you show the same number for every other team.

 

Here's a link to that data: http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/situational.cgi?from=2016&to=2016&0=2&1=4&rsgtlt=lt&rs=3&ragtlt=gt&ra=5&2=6&trgtlt=gt&tr=10&3=8&mvgtlt=gt&mv=10&4=10&owlsgtlt=gt&owls=.500&sortby=WP&teams=team&years=each&submit=

 

The Giants have the best record at 17-30, Texas is next at 13-26. Most clubs are in the 15-25% win rate in games where they score 3 runs or less.

 

Red Sox are 29th out of 30 teams (only the Twins are worse). It is interesting that the Sox have had only 33 such games this year. Everyone else is well over 40 and some are above 50.

[moonslav59]

They did stick with Holt through his struggles and then gave him the job again after returning from the injury... to long if you ask me, but other in-house choices were very limited. I agree on Holt>Brentz, so Beni was really the only non-trade option. I'm glad we didn't overpay for Beltran, but there must have been some sort of DMac, de Aza, Podsednik type cheaper option out there.

 

Holt hasn't really blown Young away vs RHPs like he was supposed to- not so much our of him doing poorly (.775 is not bad), but more out of Young doing better than expected vs RHPs (.735).

 

I've caught some flack for including Holt in several of my trade suggestions for this coming winter due to my belief that some GM might value him more as a starter than we do as a super sub, and because I do not really think he is more than just a short-term or very short-term solution at any position, except maybe 2B. Don't get me wrong, especially on a team with a FT DH that limits depth felxibility, a guy like Holt has tremendous value that is often unseen, as a manager's choices are increased even when a player like Holt is not even being used. He lengthens the bench. Not many players can play 7 positions well enough to not be an embarrassment.

 

When it comes to next year's roster construction, I see a squeeze or bottleneck of 25 man roster spots. I am not trying to devalue Holt and the flexibility he brings. I'm not trying to predict what Sox management will do or tell them what to do. I'm not pretending to know more than they do, but I see it this way:

 

Hernandez is a better fielder at SS and 3B and maybe 2B. Shaw can play 1B and probably Swihart will be given some reps there over the winter. With Benintendi on the rsoter, and Young returning next year, and Swihart probably being viewed as the 4th or 5th OF'er, Holt would be the 6th OF'er. While a 6th OF'er on the roster is valuable, it's not as valuable as a 4th or 5th OF'er.

 

I'm not for handing Holt away. I'd be happy to have him on the 25 man roster and Hernandez or Swihart in AAA as added depth, but I realize we will need to give up value to get value in return. Holt's 3 years of low-cost team control has a lot of value. I think including him as part of a larger package may be essential in landing the best return possible in trade.

 

With just about $30M to spend this winter and staying near the luxury limit, we'll have a number of slots to fill, if we want to get more competitive:

SP1 or SP2

DH

RP2 or RP3

RP4 of RP5

To fill these 4 slots to the best of our abilities, we almost certainly will need to make a trade to lessen the financial implication that filling them by free agency only would surely create. The fact that there is no top quality SP1 or SP2 on the FA market this winter pretty much means we have two choices there: stay as is or improve via trade.

 

I'm already fearful we have gone too far trading away our fine prospects, so I look at areas on our roster that we appear to be deep and strong. I think the step down in roster flexibility trading away Holt would be more than offset by the gain in the position we trade for, and that the step "down" to his replacements may not be an actual minus anyway (Hernandez>Holt in IF, Shaw/Swihart > Holt at 1B & Beni/Young/Swihart> Holt in the OF), except for the flexibility part.

 

If trading Holt as part of the package helps reduce the prospect portion of the trade I believe will be made, then we have to stay open to the diea or maybe even try to force the idea on the other GM.

[moonslav59]

Here's a link to that data: http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/situational.cgi?from=2016&to=2016&0=2&1=4&rsgtlt=lt&rs=3&ragtlt=gt&ra=5&2=6&trgtlt=gt&tr=10&3=8&mvgtlt=gt&mv=10&4=10&owlsgtlt=gt&owls=.500&sortby=WP&teams=team&years=each&submit=

 

The Giants have the best record at 17-30, Texas is next at 13-26. Most clubs are in the 15-25% win rate in games where they score 3 runs or less.

 

Red Sox are 29th out of 30 teams (only the Twins are worse). It is interesting that the Sox have had only 33 such games this year. Everyone else is well over 40 and some are above 50.

 

Another way of looking at this data is that only one team has lost less games than us when scoring 3 runs or less (TEX 26, BOS 30).

 

Every team loses all its games when scoring zero runs. Winning with just one run scored is very difficult for every team as well. I'd like to see the data on W-L records when scoring 2-3 runs, 3-4 runs and 2-4 runs.

[moonslav59]

Liked reading your post and agree with what you have to say. Our current schedule is just about as bad as it gets. I really like this current team but I will say that it just seems to me that there is still a missing piece or two here. Overall we are young but regardless of age, there just seems to be something that they need that they do not have. I think Benintendi very well might give us a lift but alone I would be surprised pleasantly if his contributions would be enough to get us over the top. Statistically maybe it looks as though the pieces are all right there, but they still have to be ahead at the end of the game in order to win it. 85/86 win team this season i see. Getting better and hopefully will continue to do so in the future.

 

The good start perhaps got our expectations higher than they should have been, but I still think, when healthy, we match up pretty well with any other AL team, especially when you look at a playoff situation where only 3-4 starters are needed and 2-3 top RP'ers gain value, we look pretty good. If we can get into the playoffs we may even have a better chance than any other AL team.

 

Here's a look at some numbers:

 

AL starting pitchers

WAR

3) Price

8) Wright

11) Porcello

Pomeranz still ranks #16 in NL WAR, even after being traded weeks ago.

(Toronto has #6 Sanchez-soon to be moved to the pen to "save his arm", 9- Estrada & 12- Stroman and 15-JA Happ. The Guardians and CWS have 2 in the top 15. The Rangers none. The Tigers 1. The O's 1 at #14.)

 

ERA-

Pomeranz ranks 5th in the NL at 63.

6) Wright 72

10) Porcello 78

22) Price 97

TOR has #2 (in pen now), 5, 8 & 29

CLE has #9, 12 (on DL .now), 14 and 25

 

As you can see, we appear to be as good, if not better than just about every other AL team in this area.

 

If Uehara can return and be somewhat close to "form", our top 3-4 RP'ers match up pretty well with other AL teams.

 

Maybe these are big ifs, but I still think we have a good shot this year.

 

Too bad we couldn't have made that one more big acquisition last winter for Papi's last season.

 

[Kimmi]

Bill Chuck

‏@BillyBall

 

The @RedSox are 58-48 - the same as in 1967 Miracle Season, in 1990 Div Champ season, and in the "Break the Curse" Season of 2004

[bowman]

Lots of baseball left to play. I still feel good about this team, but I hope some of the games we let slip don't come back to bite us in the end.

[Slasher9]

Lots of baseball left to play. I still feel good about this team, but I hope some of the games we let slip don't come back to bite us in the end.

 

Unfortunately they usually do. :(

[Slasher9]

Bill Chuck

‏@BillyBall

 

The @RedSox are 58-48 - the same as in 1967 Miracle Season, in 1990 Div Champ season, and in the "Break the Curse" Season of 2004

Thank you. I needed this. I love you Kimmi....

[cp176]

Bill Chuck

‏@BillyBall

 

The @RedSox are 58-48 - the same as in 1967 Miracle Season, in 1990 Div Champ season, and in the "Break the Curse" Season of 2004

 

Very good one here. I see the difference here being that we had Yaz on our team in 1967. I have seen no one befoe or since have a season like he had. In the field as well as at the plate.

[cp176]

The good start perhaps got our expectations higher than they should have been, but I still think, when healthy, we match up pretty well with any other AL team, especially when you look at a playoff situation where only 3-4 starters are needed and 2-3 top RP'ers gain value, we look pretty good. If we can get into the playoffs we may even have a better chance than any other AL team.

 

Here's a look at some numbers:

 

AL starting pitchers

WAR

3) Price

8) Wright

11) Porcello

Pomeranz still ranks #16 in NL WAR, even after being traded weeks ago.

(Toronto has #6 Sanchez-soon to be moved to the pen to "save his arm", 9- Estrada & 12- Stroman and 15-JA Happ. The Guardians and CWS have 2 in the top 15. The Rangers none. The Tigers 1. The O's 1 at #14.)

 

ERA-

Pomeranz ranks 5th in the NL at 63.

6) Wright 72

10) Porcello 78

22) Price 97

TOR has #2 (in pen now), 5, 8 & 29

CLE has #9, 12 (on DL .now), 14 and 25

 

As you can see, we appear to be as good, if not better than just about every other AL team in this area.

 

If Uehara can return and be somewhat close to "form", our top 3-4 RP'ers match up pretty well with other AL teams.

 

Maybe these are big ifs, but I still think we have a good shot this year.

 

Too bad we couldn't have made that one more big acquisition last winter for Papi's last season.

 

 

 

I think that we do match of well with most of the teams we face. Obviously the schedule sucks. I also think that no matter what the stats may indicate, there is something missing here.

[oldtimer]

They did stick with Holt through his struggles and then gave him the job again after returning from the injury... to long if you ask me, but other in-house choices were very limited. I agree on Holt>Brentz, so Beni was really the only non-trade option. I'm glad we didn't overpay for Beltran, but there must have been some sort of DMac, de Aza, Podsednik type cheaper option out there.

 

Holt hasn't really blown Young away vs RHPs like he was supposed to- not so much our of him doing poorly (.775 is not bad), but more out of Young doing better than expected vs RHPs (.735).

 

I've caught some flack for including Holt in several of my trade suggestions for this coming winter due to my belief that some GM might value him more as a starter than we do as a super sub, and because I do not really think he is more than just a short-term or very short-term solution at any position, except maybe 2B. Don't get me wrong, especially on a team with a FT DH that limits depth felxibility, a guy like Holt has tremendous value that is often unseen, as a manager's choices are increased even when a player like Holt is not even being used. He lengthens the bench. Not many players can play 7 positions well enough to not be an embarrassment.

 

When it comes to next year's roster construction, I see a squeeze or bottleneck of 25 man roster spots. I am not trying to devalue Holt and the flexibility he brings. I'm not trying to predict what Sox management will do or tell them what to do. I'm not pretending to know more than they do, but I see it this way:

 

Hernandez is a better fielder at SS and 3B and maybe 2B. Shaw can play 1B and probably Swihart will be given some reps there over the winter. With Benintendi on the rsoter, and Young returning next year, and Swihart probably being viewed as the 4th or 5th OF'er, Holt would be the 6th OF'er. While a 6th OF'er on the roster is valuable, it's not as valuable as a 4th or 5th OF'er.

 

I'm not for handing Holt away. I'd be happy to have him on the 25 man roster and Hernandez or Swihart in AAA as added depth, but I realize we will need to give up value to get value in return. Holt's 3 years of low-cost team control has a lot of value. I think including him as part of a larger package may be essential in landing the best return possible in trade.

 

With just about $30M to spend this winter and staying near the luxury limit, we'll have a number of slots to fill, if we want to get more competitive:

SP1 or SP2

DH

RP2 or RP3

RP4 of RP5

To fill these 4 slots to the best of our abilities, we almost certainly will need to make a trade to lessen the financial implication that filling them by free agency only would surely create. The fact that there is no top quality SP1 or SP2 on the FA market this winter pretty much means we have two choices there: stay as is or improve via trade.

 

I'm already fearful we have gone too far trading away our fine prospects, so I look at areas on our roster that we appear to be deep and strong. I think the step down in roster flexibility trading away Holt would be more than offset by the gain in the position we trade for, and that the step "down" to his replacements may not be an actual minus anyway (Hernandez>Holt in IF, Shaw/Swihart > Holt at 1B & Beni/Young/Swihart> Holt in the OF), except for the flexibility part.

 

If trading Holt as part of the package helps reduce the prospect portion of the trade I believe will be made, then we have to stay open to the diea or maybe even try to force the idea on the other GM.

 

I do think Holt has value in the trade market and maybe more than the value we ascribe to him in a super utility role. I can see us adding Hannigan and Rameriz into the trade market and perhaps Buchholz of our starters, realizing we wouldn't get his full contract covered. If Hanley does go we may save $10 Mil a year and with Ortiz coming off the books we will have some cash to spend. It sounds like we then would have to acquire a DH with Hanley gone and probably look for another RP or two as we are likely to have at least one retirement.

 

I assume you are thinking of Benintendi in LF, Moncada at 3rd base and Shaw at first with Leon as the primary catcher and Swihart, Young on the roster. Is it impossible in your view that we won't get at least one RP and even a possible SP from the minors for next year?

[moonslav59]

Very good one here. I see the difference here being that we had Yaz on our team in 1967. I have seen no one befoe or since have a season like he had. In the field as well as at the plate.

 

The 67 team did not have a Papi, a balanced offense, or three top pitchers.

[moonslav59]

I think that we do match of well with most of the teams we face. Obviously the schedule sucks. I also think that no matter what the stats may indicate, there is something missing here.

 

True. But so do all the other AL teams.

[mvp 78]

Bill Chuck

‏@BillyBall

 

The @RedSox are 58-48 - the same as in 1967 Miracle Season, in 1990 Div Champ season, and in the "Break the Curse" Season of 2004

If we only had either of those rotations.

[moonslav59]

I do think Holt has value in the trade market and maybe more than the value we ascribe to him in a super utility role. I can see us adding Hannigan and Rameriz into the trade market and perhaps Buchholz of our starters, realizing we wouldn't get his full contract covered. If Hanley does go we may save $10 Mil a year and with Ortiz coming off the books we will have some cash to spend. It sounds like we then would have to acquire a DH with Hanley gone and probably look for another RP or two as we are likely to have at least one retirement.

 

I assume you are thinking of Benintendi in LF, Moncada at 3rd base and Shaw at first with Leon as the primary catcher and Swihart, Young on the roster. Is it impossible in your view that we won't get at least one RP and even a possible SP from the minors for next year?

 

I actually see vas and Leon as our primary catchers with swi in the mix at C, LF, 1B and maybe DH. Be I in lf. Moncada/Shaw at 3B and ha ram at 1B and DH. Young can also DH.

[Eddy Ballgame]

 

I actually see vas and Leon as our primary catchers with swi in the mix at C, LF, 1B and maybe DH. Be I in lf. Moncada/Shaw at 3B and ha ram at 1B and DH. Young can also DH.

 

This is almost a lost season for Swihart. I think they put him in left out of necessity and they still plan to develop him as a catcher. My guess is he will be in Pawtucket to start the season. He needs to play every day. He's not going to be some kind of super sub at this stage of his development.

 

Same with Moncada. If he doesn't win the starting job at 3rd, he'll also probably end up in Pawtucket. He will also play every day somewhere. I understand that you think he can get enough at bats doing some DHing, but I just can't see any situation where a team takes a young 5 tool player and uses him at DH. It's unheard of. The only way he is going to get better defensively is to play every day in the field. I'm certain he will.

[bowman]

Don't count out "show me some love" Castillo. 4 for 4 today for Paw Sox. OOPS sore subject there. Johnson another good outing today.

[cp176]

The 67 team did not have a Papi, a balanced offense, or three top pitchers.

 

Yaz - the end

[moonslav59]

Yaz - the end

 

Yaz did everything a player can do to almost single-handedly lead his team into the playoff.

 

Papi has done the same in the post season.

[moonslav59]

This is almost a lost season for Swihart. I think they put him in left out of necessity and they still plan to develop him as a catcher. My guess is he will be in Pawtucket to start the season. He needs to play every day. He's not going to be some kind of super sub at this stage of his development.

 

Same with Moncada. If he doesn't win the starting job at 3rd, he'll also probably end up in Pawtucket. He will also play every day somewhere. I understand that you think he can get enough at bats doing some DHing, but I just can't see any situation where a team takes a young 5 tool player and uses him at DH. It's unheard of. The only way he is going to get better defensively is to play every day in the field. I'm certain he will.

 

I don't disagree, but if Moncada's bat is ML ready, and we haven't signed Encarnacion, I'd be fine with Moncada DH'ing FT until he masters a position.