A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

TB leaders:

89 Ortiz

80 JBJ

79 Bogey

76 Shaw

76 Betts

75 Pedey

69 HanRam

40 Holt

 

7 guys on pace for 280+ TBs

 

[a700hitter]

You might be getting a little caught up in the numbers-- on pace almost never means anything and certainly not this early in the season.

[southpaw777]

Andrew Benintendi has been promoted to AA... Its a very real possibility of him being in Boston this september or if there is an injury, he could be here sooner...all depending on how he handles Eastern League pitching. Personally, i think he will keep doing what hes been doing. Cant wait to see this kid in the OF in Boston.

[Critter]

Just so ironic that JBJ has this hit streak and they're comparing his to Dom's and Nomar's and Wade's...and he's hitting for power...two years ago this guy was a bum and some wanted to give him away. Just a cautionary tale about patience and young players. I think sometimes all we fans are a little quick to pull the trigger on a guy.

 

Watched Mets and Wash. for a while last night. Think I heard Mets were down a catcher, former starter out for rest of year? Think they said he'd lost his starting job, but they may need someone. Think we could do anything there? When I hear "catcher down" I immediately think maybe a trade is possible. Mets usually have pitching--don't know about their minor league teams.

[Kimmi]

The evolution of JBJ as a hitter, per Fangraphs. In 2014, he was just a complete mess. In 2015, JBJ tightened up his swing and learned how to hit a fastball, but was getting beat by offspeed pitches. This year so far, he has a better approach at the plate and is hitting the offspeed stuff as well.

 

 

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/jackie-bradley-jr.png

[moonslav59]

You might be getting a little caught up in the numbers-- on pace almost never means anything and certainly not this early in the season.

 

I didn't mean to imply that I expect any of these guys to reach 4 x their current numbers; I only meant to show the pace and balance of so many players on our team.

 

During ST'ing I tried to argue that we had less holes in our line-up than nearly anyone else plus a great bench in case anyone faltered. Well, Sandy and Castillo are not even part of this and 8 guys are on pace for 80+ RBIs!

 

Wow! What a start!

 

I seriously doubt we continue like this, but I'm sticking with my top 3 offense projection.

[moonslav59]

Just so ironic that JBJ has this hit streak and they're comparing his to Dom's and Nomar's and Wade's...and he's hitting for power...two years ago this guy was a bum and some wanted to give him away. Just a cautionary tale about patience and young players. I think sometimes all we fans are a little quick to pull the trigger on a guy.

 

Watched Mets and Wash. for a while last night. Think I heard Mets were down a catcher, former starter out for rest of year? Think they said he'd lost his starting job, but they may need someone. Think we could do anything there? When I hear "catcher down" I immediately think maybe a trade is possible. Mets usually have pitching--don't know about their minor league teams.

 

While some posters were calling JBJ a bum, many GMs kept asking for JBJ when trade talks took place.

[cp176]

Just so ironic that JBJ has this hit streak and they're comparing his to Dom's and Nomar's and Wade's...and he's hitting for power...two years ago this guy was a bum and some wanted to give him away. Just a cautionary tale about patience and young players. I think sometimes all we fans are a little quick to pull the trigger on a guy.

 

Watched Mets and Wash. for a while last night. Think I heard Mets were down a catcher, former starter out for rest of year? Think they said he'd lost his starting job, but they may need someone. Think we could do anything there? When I hear "catcher down" I immediately think maybe a trade is possible. Mets usually have pitching--don't know about their minor league teams.

 

While some posters were calling JBJ a bum, many GMs kept asking for JBJ when trade talks took place.

 

It's what we are particularly here in northern N.E. Quick to react fans - particularly on a forum board. I think that JBJ was a little unusual because he had performed so well in the minors. There was always that little question mark. It didn't add up that he wouldn't be able to hit ml pitching at all. While most of us expected more from him, I don't think that many were willing to just give him away. It is just a good story right now.

[Emp9]

It's what we are particularly here in northern N.E. Quick to react fans - particularly on a forum board. I think that JBJ was a little unusual because he had performed so well in the minors. There was always that little question mark. It didn't add up that he wouldn't be able to hit ml pitching at all. While most of us expected more from him, I don't think that many were willing to just give him away. It is just a good story right now.

 

The flashes of brilliance at the plate, coupled w/ an open spot in our Major League OF... but all in all JBJ was rushed. One can look at him being rushed two different ways. Was it a bad thing that he got exposed? Or was it a good thing to see where his weaknesses at the plate were? If he was never brought up until now, would he have just delayed the adjustments he'd eventually have had to make (shortened swing, better pitch recognition, etc)? These are just questions. I really don't know for sure. I think the Red Sox were in their right, at the time (after his epic monster Spring Training way back when), to see what they had. By all rights, when looking at his MiLB #'s, then witnessing his MLB struggles... In retrospect He was like the anti-Shaw. Baseball can be downright baffling sometimes.

[Dojji]

You never know what you're going to get from a prospect until you throw them in the fire. That said, JBJ was in no real danger of being useless to the team. He deserved the chance he got to see if he could be a big league regular, but his floor was as a good 4th OF, I saw a comp between him and So Taguchi who was a very good backup OF some good Cardinal teams -- so throwing him into the big leagues wasn't that big of a gamble.

[User Name]

JBJ came up because Victorino got injured IIRC.

[southpaw777]

Just so ironic that JBJ has this hit streak and they're comparing his to Dom's and Nomar's and Wade's...and he's hitting for power...two years ago this guy was a bum and some wanted to give him away. Just a cautionary tale about patience and young players. I think sometimes all we fans are a little quick to pull the trigger on a guy.

 

Watched Mets and Wash. for a while last night. Think I heard Mets were down a catcher, former starter out for rest of year? Think they said he'd lost his starting job, but they may need someone. Think we could do anything there? When I hear "catcher down" I immediately think maybe a trade is possible. Mets usually have pitching--don't know about their minor league teams.

 

Now, for a guy like Syndergaard (not saying hes available) I would give up names like Espinoza, benintendi, swihart and Devers to start the conversation...

[Maxbialystock]

The flashes of brilliance at the plate, coupled w/ an open spot in our Major League OF... but all in all JBJ was rushed. One can look at him being rushed two different ways. Was it a bad thing that he got exposed? Or was it a good thing to see where his weaknesses at the plate were? If he was never brought up until now, would he have just delayed the adjustments he'd eventually have had to make (shortened swing, better pitch recognition, etc)? These are just questions. I really don't know for sure. I think the Red Sox were in their right, at the time (after his epic monster Spring Training way back when), to see what they had. By all rights, when looking at his MiLB #'s, then witnessing his MLB struggles... In retrospect He was like the anti-Shaw. Baseball can be downright baffling sometimes.

 

20-20 hindsight on the "rushed to the Majors" notion. He in fact followed the exact same timeline that Pedroia followed in 2007. Both played 30+ games in Boston in their 23d year and came up as starters in their 24th year. I think you make a solid point that just maybe the exposure in 2014 helped JBJ in the long run. In 2014 I was completely in favor of JBJ as the starting centerfielder because Ellsbury would have been way over-priced. By the end of 2014 I was happy to see Betts in CF and JBJ back at AAA. Last year I was still happy with Betts in CF, but I also thought it made sense to give giving JBJ another shot, which finally took in August. No way, no how did I expect him to have an OPS over .800, let alone over 1.000 which he now threatens to do. His OPS right now--granted, still very early in the season--is better than Ellsbury's in his career year of 2011. Now ain't that a hoot?

 

All in all, a lot of surprises this year, especially among the hitters.

[Spudboy]

JBJ came up because Victorino got injured IIRC.

 

I'm old and have a failing memory of such things but I seem to remember JBJ being promoted out of necessity.

[Spudboy]

Now, for a guy like Syndergaard (not saying hes available) I would give up names like Espinoza, benintendi, swihart and Devers to start the conversation...

 

All four?

 

I love me some Thor but that may be a tad steep.

[southpaw777]

All four?

 

I love me some Thor but that may be a tad steep.

 

My bad. I didnt mean all four, but I can see how you would think that.

I meant i would start with top names like that and not try to make it a quantity over quality thing or try and give them our garbage.

I would give them at least two of those names and maybe three if they demanded it...

[Spudboy]

My bad. I didnt mean all four, but I can see how you would think that.

I meant i would start with top names like that and not try to make it a quantity over quality thing or try and give them our garbage.

I would give them at least two of those names and maybe three if they demanded it...

 

Oh. I see now.

[Hugh2]

Young cost controlled ace starters on teams that are in "win now" mode don't get traded. The only way this is plausible is if the Mets think they can trade off pitching for hitting in which case they are 100% going to demand back MLB talent. In other words, a guy like Bogaerts is going to have to headline the trade.

 

Now a prospect package might be feasible on a last place team but not for a team that was just in the world series last year and has aspirations to compete going forward.

 

I think something like Bogaerts/Devers/Owens/Buchholz gets it done.

[Hugh2]

Of course this is assuming that the Mets want the trade off of hitting for pitching. They might not want that, and they might want to move prospects for hitting to keep their pitching core in tact.

[Emp9]

Hugh is right. A lot would need to happen for the Mets to want to trade one of their SPers for anything. But it is more likely they'd want to upgrade their offense if they're in contention and prospects don't help in that very likely scenario. However, a few Key things to keep an eye on w/ zero added speculation: 1) Harvey Arb Eligible 2017-2018, FA 2019. 2) Wheeler's recovery from TJS due to come back mid-season. 3) Financially the Mets are still a Mest.

[moonslav59]

Young cost controlled ace starters on teams that are in "win now" mode don't get traded. The only way this is plausible is if the Mets think they can trade off pitching for hitting in which case they are 100% going to demand back MLB talent. In other words, a guy like Bogaerts is going to have to headline the trade.

 

Now a prospect package might be feasible on a last place team but not for a team that was just in the world series last year and has aspirations to compete going forward.

 

I think something like Bogaerts/Devers/Owens/Buchholz gets it done.

 

The situation has changed in MLB. With so much parity, and some teams going from last to first and first to last nearly every year, hardly any teams can be considered in total "rebuild mode". Maybe a team like the Braves might be considered a team looking 3 years away, but even they were a 90 win team in 2012 and 2013. Plus, they were trading prospects away in some deals last winter.

 

No doubt, it's hard to pry a quality young pitcher from any team these days with just a group of prospects, but teams today are also valuing young talent more and more as richer teams are facing tougher and tougher rules on drafting, international signings and more.

 

I'm done complaining about the Kimbrel trade, but I am totally convinced that a package like the one listed below could have gotten us a very fine pitcher under team control for 3 or more years at a reasonable financial cost.

 

(Not all oif these guys, but depending on who we are asking for 6 or 7.)

 

Holt

Swihart

Devers

Guerra

Margot

Asuage

Logan

and one or two from Owens, Johnson and Kopech

 

The other alternative was to try for a deal where we take on salary from a team looking to dump a player(s). An example might have been Jamie Shields with M Upton or Kemp, or maybe trading for Verlander (not off to a good start so far). Even these types of deals are hard to find.

 

The best options seem to be for someone like Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez.

 

Names like Quintana, Carrasco, Salazar and Kluber were floated around last winter, but it's hard to know much those rumors were real.

 

We may have tried very hard to find a deal for an ace, but I doubt we offered Swihart and Devers plus more.

 

I was very much against trying to get Cole Hamels, because he was getting paid near FA money, and Philly wanted too much, but never the less, he was traded away, so it can and does happen.

[Hugh2]

Has there ever been a 6 or 7 player swap for one guy? I dont' think we can make up for quality with QTY. If you want a high quality player you have to give up quality. Trades are supposed to hurt for both teams, the other side has to think they are winning the trade.

[moonslav59]

Has there ever been a 6 or 7 player swap for one guy? I dont' think we can make up for quality with QTY. If you want a high quality player you have to give up quality. Trades are supposed to hurt for both teams, the other side has to think they are winning the trade.

 

I think trading 6 of the best guys on my list would hurt like hell.

It's hard to build up the farm these days with all the new restrictions on richer teams.

I think there must be some 6 for one trades in ML history, especially when most of the players do not need to take space on the 40 man roster, but we could have made it a 6 for 2 deal with maybe the 2nd guy being a salary dump type guy.

[sk7326]

Has there ever been a 6 or 7 player swap for one guy? I dont' think we can make up for quality with QTY. If you want a high quality player you have to give up quality. Trades are supposed to hurt for both teams, the other side has to think they are winning the trade.

 

Mets want to win it all - they are not dealing Thor (or Harvey) without improving the major league club. Betts or Bogaerts are where discussions start.

[moonslav59]

Mets want to win it all - they are not dealing Thor (or Harvey) without improving the major league club. Betts or Bogaerts are where discussions start.

 

I never mentioned the Mets as a candidate for a 6 prospect for an ace deal.

[devildavid]

 

The best options seem to be for someone like Sonny Gray or Jose Fernandez.

 

Names like Quintana, Carrasco, Salazar and Kluber were floated around last winter, but it's hard to know much those rumors were real.

 

We may have tried very hard to find a deal for an ace, but I doubt we offered Swihart and Devers plus more.

 

I was very much against trying to get Cole Hamels, because he was getting paid near FA money, and Philly wanted too much, but never the less, he was traded away, so it can and does happen.

 

It may be a good time to buy low on Sonny Gray.

[sk7326]

I never mentioned the Mets as a candidate for a 6 prospect for an ace deal.

 

That applies for any ace with significant contract control ... other team will want young. controllable, high probability studs. I think the Beckett deal is a solid outline - 2 high level prospects and having to take a (perceived) bad contract. Now, the money in the game is such that the Red Sox probably would not have to take back perceived entrails.

[robert vonhalle]

It may be a good time to buy low on Sonny Gray.

 

wonder what it would cost to get gray?

[Jasonbay44]

I doubt A's move Gray right now when he is pitching at his worst, they would be selling low.

[sk7326]

wonder what it would cost to get gray?

 

betts or bradley and stuff