Craig Kimbrel to Boston

[Kimmi]

Ok.

I'm positive that if Koji was in desperate need of being replaced at the closer role, then he's not going to fare a whole lot better in a more demanding 8th inning role. Which debunks the "we strengthened the pen, because Koji and Taz can move down an inning".

 

I'm also positive that, while Kimbral is a nice get, the Sox overpaid. I'd rather they overpay for a starter.

Kinmbrals numbers last year, while still good, were down, in a pitchers park.

Let's hope Fenway isn't even tougher on him. If so, all this "positivity" will be gone by May.

 

Kimbrel should still be a very good closer, even if his numbers are down slightly. He's a good get for the team. That said, for anyone to think that we didn't overpay for him is just crazy. I have not read a single analysis of this trade that came to the conclusion that we did not overpay.

[Kimmi]

Seems like a stretch to say that they had no value to the Sox as future major leaguers. I don't really buy the line of argument that because someone is currently blocked they don't have a role on the team. Margot might have been up to Boston next season. Is there no belief that Castillo or Bradley might regress to something worse than Margot? Or that other opportunities might present themselves? Similarily with Guerra--he's a few years away. No chance Bogaerts gets hurt? Or, even more obviously, no chance that anyone else values Guerra higher over the next 3 years? I just have a hard time believing that the Sox were the ones without options when it comes to some of these prospects.

 

All that said, I think it fits more neatly into the category of "you have to experience some pain to get good players" and that's all the justification we need. The relief market this year is weak and Kimbrel is arguably the best there is. That's all I need for justification. Sometimes you spend more than market value on a house or other items simply because you fall in love with it, and you stop worrying about the extra money spent because you love the house. In this case, if DD feels better knowing that the 9th inning is locked up 90% of the time over the next 3 years then I understand the reasoning.

 

I just have a hard time believing that because the Sox have a couple OFs and a solid SS that suddenly those prospects are devalued. The Sox may be willing to part with them for that reason, but that shouldn't have much impact on their value.

 

^^^This.

[Kimmi]

Here's another perspective on the value of the trade. Fangraphs did some projections on the 4 prospects that the Sox gave up. Yes, they are just projections which may or may not pan out, but this is the type of thing that GMs look at when they are trying to determine the value or worth of players.

 

One of the posts in the comments section summed it up nicely:

 

"In other words, if Kimbrel gives the Red Sox 14.6 WAR and pays them back all his salary above the major league minimum, it’s an even trade."

 

To give that statement some point of reference, Kimbrel has been worth 12.9 WAR over his 6 years in the majors, and Steamer projects him to be worth 1.2 WAR next season. In other words, chances are slim to none that Kimbrel comes close to that 14.6 WAR, not to mention the difference between his salary and the major league minimum.

[a700hitter]

For Sale, I think if you add Swihart and one other prospect (maybe Devers?), that would be enough. I don't know what Oakland is interested in, but something similar for Gray. Perhaps JBJ and another prospect might have been enough for Carrasco or Salazar.

 

To be fair, it's likely that Sale and Gray really are not available. However, I would have been happy with Carrasco or Salazar, one of whom I think would be available.

I would be onboard with any of those trades you proposed.

[User Name]

The old guard (Elktonnick, a700, Spud) and even the goddamn Yankee fan and "let's rebuild" Dojji defending the deal and the GM. The optimists (Palodios, Kimmi, Cycles) lambasting the GM for it. I.....I just can't. Is this real life? Nothing makes sense.

[User Name]

And I'll be totally honest, I'm not that high on either Carrasco or Salazar (I like Carrasco way better, but he lacks the numbers and overall consistency to back up what he's going to cost in a trade IMHO). Give me Price without draft pick loss please. They are going to spend big on a pitcher anways, whether an extension for a young ace, or an FA splash. Might as well do it for the guy who only costs money (literally this time) still has prime years left, and is a model of health and consistency.

[Kimmi]

I would be onboard with any of those trades you proposed.

 

If Sale wasn't available, Quintana might have been. He would be cheaper too.

[Kimmi]

The old guard (Elktonnick, a700, Spud) and even the goddamn Yankee fan and "let's rebuild" Dojji defending the deal and the GM. The optimists (Palodios, Kimmi, Cycles) lambasting the GM for it. I.....I just can't. Is this real life? Nothing makes sense.

 

This is what happens when you leave. The rest of us get all out of whack.

[Kimmi]

And I'll be totally honest, I'm not that high on either Carrasco or Salazar (I like Carrasco way better, but he lacks the numbers and overall consistency to back up what he's going to cost in a trade IMHO). Give me Price without draft pick loss please. They are going to spend big on a pitcher anways, whether an extension for a young ace, or an FA splash. Might as well do it for the guy who only costs money (literally this time) still has prime years left, and is a model of health and consistency.

 

I like Carrasco better than Salazar too, but Salazar would suffice and wouldn't cost as much. And I'm not trying to say that either one is as good as Price or Sale.

 

I am usually one who much prefers getting players that only cost money, but with the price tag Price will come with, and our abundance of prospects, this was one time I would have preferred getting a starter via trade. But that was before we gave up those prospects for Kimbrel. At this point, trading for a top starter would likely hurt our farm too much.

 

Many are assuming that Price would choose to come to Boston, which I'm not sure is a good assumption. If we outbid all the other teams by $20 or $30 mil, then he likely would. If his other offers are comparable, I think he goes somewhere else.

[jung]

Once you climb off that tier of pitchers like Sale, Grey, Harvey, deGrum et al, I think I would prefer DD spend JH's money and not his prospects. Granted there is not a great deal of depth to this year's FA pitchers. But DD should be able to get one of them I would think.

 

It would be interesting to know just what it would take for a Quintana. He's locked up till 2020 which makes him attractive in that regard. It probably adds a bit to his cost though.

[User Name]

What? This year's crop of pitchers is nothing is not deep.

[Spudboy]

The old guard (Elktonnick, a700, Spud) and even the goddamn Yankee fan and "let's rebuild" Dojji defending the deal and the GM. The optimists (Palodios, Kimmi, Cycles) lambasting the GM for it. I.....I just can't. Is this real life? Nothing makes sense.

 

I mentioned noticing this phenomena first!!!!!!

 

Although I did not spell it all out.

 

Making that trade would not have been my 1st or even any move. The pen and rotation both suck ass. I would have started by addressing the rotation first or maybe acquiring a relief pitcher of lesser notoriety. The moderate investment / known quantity and pitches well most of the time that is a non-closer.

 

 

That did not happen and while I understand that the Sox may have paid one upper level prospect too much, well, what is it that Doris Day used to say? f*** it. It's milk over the dam at this point. I can complain but why? It's just boring to hear people go on about it and to have to see the open questioning of whether I get it it. Those people give themselves far too much credit as if they only understood all of this.

 

Laughable.

[Bellhorn04]

The old guard (Elktonnick, a700, Spud) and even the goddamn Yankee fan and "let's rebuild" Dojji defending the deal and the GM. The optimists (Palodios, Kimmi, Cycles) lambasting the GM for it. I.....I just can't. Is this real life? Nothing makes sense.

 

It makes sense to me, because for the most part, the optimists are or were Ben loyalists and very skeptical of Dombro and his methods.

[User Name]

I expect more "Rational towards the team's future" than "Loyal to a particular executive". Maybe because I lived in Michigan for a while, and was exposed to DD's success with trades and building up the Tigers in every area except the BP for years. I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt, as I always do.

[User Name]

This is from Sports on Earth, and sums up my feelings on the Kimbrel trade pretty nicely:

 

On Friday morning, the Red Sox had a bad bullpen, a great farm system and the resources needed to acquire a front-line starter. On Friday night, the Red Sox had a better bullpen, a great farm system and the resources needed to acquire a front-line starter.

 

If Dombrowski stops here, if the Sox roll into 2016 with their 2015 roster plus Craig Kimbrel, this is a stupid and bad trade for Boston. But if he adds another bullpen arm and a starter or two, it will make a lot more sense. This was not the Angels trading away their last two interesting assets. It wasn't the Tigers of old shipping off their only prospects to buy life for an old, dying team. It was a team using a surplus to address a deficiency, and deciding to use surplus only rather than also accept, say, a Melvin Upton-esque contract to get the job done.

 

The Red Sox are young already, have more young talent on the way and can compete in a wide-open AL East for the next several years if they get better at pitching. Kimbrel can help them accomplish that goal. Guerra and Margot couldn't. -- Ben Carsley

[cp176]

This is from Sports on Earth, and sums up my feelings on the Kimbrel trade pretty nicely:

 

This makes sense to me. I expect and hope for more to come. I expect most of it to come via free agency but would not be surprised nor would I be upset particularly if it came via trade. The great debate seems to center around the value of what we gave up as opposed to what we got. Everything is relative to an individual point of view. I see the players traded to be replaceable by players that may even be better. That approach works for me.

[SoxnCycles]

I mentioned noticing this phenomena first!!!!!!

 

Although I did not spell it all out.

 

Making that trade would not have been my 1st or even any move. The pen and rotation both suck ass. I would have started by addressing the rotation first or maybe acquiring a relief pitcher of lesser notoriety. The moderate investment / known quantity and pitches well most of the time that is a non-closer.

 

 

That did not happen and while I understand that the Sox may have paid one upper level prospect too much, well, what is it that Doris Day used to say? f*** it. It's milk over the dam at this point. I can complain but why? It's just boring to hear people go on about it and to have to see the open questioning of whether I get it it. Those people give themselves far too much credit as if they only understood all of this.

 

Laughable.

 

Yeah, THAT'S never happened here before.

 

Tell us, how do you feel about Hanley?

We're dying to know....

[SoxnCycles]

I'm sure Kimbrel will help the bullpen.

I just don't think it will be as big a boost as the cost of prospects warranted, that's all.

 

If DD could've added a MLB ready player like Swihart or JBJ to get a starter, I'd be thrilled.

 

And considering how every other post since June has been "We need two starters", I'm surprised so many get their skirts blown up by this trade.

[Elktonnick]

by Matt Collins

baseballprospectus.com

November 16, 2015

 

The following is a series of facts about Craig Kimbrel’s amazing career. They are not meant to sway you one way or the other with respect to the merits of the trade. For once in your life enjoy a sports person doing great sports person things instead of worrying about the value in a transaction. Yes, I’m looking at you.

 

 

Craig Kimbrel has the second most saves of all time through a player’s age-27 season. He has the most saves of all time through a player’s sixth season. Yes, I know saves are a dumb stat. But they don’t let you keep getting save chances if you suck. So take that, nerds.

 

Craig Kimbrel is the only player in baseball history with at least 150 innings pitched, a FIP below 2.00 and an ERA+ above 200.

 

Craig Kimbrel is one of 11 players in the last 50 years to have pitched at least 50 innings in a season and finish with an ERA+ of at least 300 and a FIP of no more than 2.00. He’s the only one to have done it twice.

 

Craig Kimbrel’s K% was 36.4% in 2015. It was the lowest rate of his career. It was the 37th highest rate of any pitcher with at least 50 innings since the turn of the century.

 

Craig Kimbrel’s FIP was 2.68 in 2015. It was the 32nd best mark in baseball among all pitchers with at least 35 innings last season, tied with Clay Buchholz and better than breakout performers like Jeurys Familia, Roberto Osuna and A.J. Ramos.

 

Craig Kimbrel’s opponents have managed a 35 OPS+ through his career. That is six points lower than any other pitcher with at least 100 career innings has allowed in the last 55 years.

 

Craig Kimbrel threw 62.2 innings in 2012. Opponents managed an OPS+ of 1 against him that season, and struck out 50.2 percent of the time.

 

I don’t think you spent enough time thinking about that last one. Go back and read it again.

 

Craig Kimbrel’s opponents have an .067 ISO over the course of his career. That is the lowest mark for any pitcher with at least 300 career innings in the expansion era.

 

Craig Kimbrel’s career cFIP is 52. Exactly one pitcher bested that mark in 2015, and 14 pitchers not named Craig Kimbrel have bested it in a single season since his career started in 2010. (min 40 IP)

 

Craig Kimbrel had a 21 cFIP in 2012. That’s the best single-season mark since Pedro’s 19 cFIP in 1999. (min 40 IP)

 

Craig Kimbrel has had one calendar month in his career in which his fastball averaged under 95.0 mph. It was the first calendar month of his major-league career when he pitched four innings. He averaged 94.8 mph on his fastball in that month.

 

Craig Kimbrel averaged less than 98.0 mph on his fastball for just one calendar month in 2015. He averaged 97.9 mph on his fastball in that month.

 

Craig Kimbrel has pitched five full seasons in the majors. In those seasons, he has finished 2nd, 1st, 12th, 5th and 6th in swinging strike rate. (min 500 pitches)

 

Craig Kimbrel has two separate scoreless innings streaks of at least 28 innings.

 

Craig Kimbrel threw 37.2 consecutive innings without allowing a run in 2011. During that streak he struck out 49 percent of his opponents and didn’t allow any extra base hits.

 

Craig Kimbrel struck out a batter in 20 straight appearances two separate times in 2015. It was the second season in his career in which he accomplished that feat twice.

 

Craig Kimbrel has appeared in 355 games in his career. He’s allowed more than one earned run in 14 of them.

 

Craig Kimbrel allowed three earned runs on April 29 of last year. It was the first and only time in his career that he allowed more than two earned runs in an outing.

 

Craig Kimbrel looks like a marionette from the “Bye Bye Bye” video when he waits for the sign from the catcher.

 

 

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/16/fun-facts-about-craig-kimbrel-who-is-now-a-red-sox/

 

If Kimbrel continues to make 60 appearances per year with only 4 or less blown saves then the deal was worth it. Since none of the prospects are likely to be an impact player in the Major leagues before 2017 if at all.

[mvp 78]

Mariano HWY

[SoxnCycles]

Excerpts from Keith Law ESPN Insider:

 

"His contract is quite favorable, $24 million guaranteed for the next two years with an option at $13 million ($1 million buyout) for 2018, which will almost certainly be picked up if he's healthy. But even if that comes to pass, the Red Sox will be lucky to get even 6 WAR of value out of Kimbrel over those three seasons. You have to place a huge premium on the closer role -- high leverage, but not always the highest leverage situations -- to believe he's going to be worth close to what Boston gave up.

 

Boy, did they ever pay a steep price for him: two prospects among the top 50 in the game and two other prospects of significant value. Center fielder Manuel Margot is the best prospect heading back to San Diego, and he's exactly the player the Padres needed to get back in a trade this winter. The Padres didn't have a true center fielder in the system, and Margot is a plus defender there who should be able to handle the large territory in Petco Park. He's a disciplined hitter who rarely strikes out and has the swing to hit for at least average power when he fills out physically, although his home park won't help him in the home run column. He has outstanding instincts on both sides of the ball, and I imagine it killed the longtime Sox employees who've watched him develop the past few years to see him go.

 

Shortstop Javier Guerra isn't far behind Margot, less polished right now but with enormous upside; he's a plus defender at shortstop with plus raw power and a good chance to hit for average, too. Guerra has soft hands and very easy actions at short, a natural at the position who should be a legitimate asset in the majors with his glove. He has great bat speed that generates a lot of power, and his contact rate kept improving as the season went on -- 29 percent in the first half, 19 percent in the second -- after I saw him having some timing issues in mid-June at Lakewood. He could truly be a monster of a player; a good defensive shortstop who even hits .280 with 20-25 homers is a possible MVP, although Guerra has yet to reach high-A and is probably two years out from the majors.

 

The Padres didn't have any need for a $12 million-a-year closer, although they'll probably pick someone up to handle the ninth inning. But they had several holes to fill in their system and just addressed several of them, getting a lot of upside in the deal but with two of the four players close to major league value. Margot alone could be more valuable than Kimbrel by 2017, and Asuaje should be a positive asset by then, too.

 

For Boston, even if you think it's fair value because you believe the ninth inning is some super-woo time that only the few and the proud can handle, the Red Sox just traded two of their most valuable minor league assets for a 60-inning reliever … which means they can't trade them for something else they need, like a high-end starter. It's not a great start for the new regime's first offseason."

[Spudboy]

Everyone has an opinion.

[reYoukilis]

Im good with the trade. Kimbrel alone has the power to turn our horrible bullpen into an excellent one. It was getting better at the end of the year anyways but now you have a still effective Uehara as a set up man. Now we need a quality starter and another bat.

[Kimmi]

It makes sense to me, because for the most part, the optimists are or were Ben loyalists and very skeptical of Dombro and his methods.

 

I am not a Ben loyalist. A Theo loyalist, maybe, but not a Ben loyalist. What I'm actually a loyalist of is their overall philosophy when it comes to building baseball teams. They are spot on with that philosophy. It's not that they don't make any mistakes, but their overall approach to building a team is the way it should be done.

 

I am skeptical of Dombrowski's methods. However, I have not lambasted him. I have been critical of one move, but I also have stated that I understand his rationale behind that move. I fully agree with his other "big move" to date, which was to pick up Buchholz's option.

[Kimmi]

On Friday morning, the Red Sox had a bad bullpen, a great farm system and the resources needed to acquire a front-line starter. On Friday night, the Red Sox had a better bullpen, a great farm system and the resources needed to acquire a front-line starter.

 

Of course we still have the resources to acquire a front line starter. At what cost to the future of this team though?

[a700hitter]

Of course we still have the resources to acquire a front line starter. At what cost to the future of this team though?

At the cost of winning.

[Kimmi]

I can complain but why? It's just boring to hear people go on about it and to have to see the open questioning of whether I get it it. Those people give themselves far too much credit as if they only understood all of this.

 

Laughable.

 

I'm not complaining. I am offering my critical analysis of the trade. There is a difference. And if I have repeated my opinion too many times, it's only because I am responding to other's posts. That's why I come to Talksox.

 

I respectfully suggest that if you don't like my "complaining", or are bored by my posts, or find them so laughable, then don't read them.

[Kimmi]

At the cost of winning.

 

This is a win now at any cost philosophy, which is fine if that's the way you want to go.

 

I do not agree with that line of thinking.

 

It would feel great if we won another WS in the short term, but that's not guaranteed. In the long term, we could end up with a long drought of bad teams because we are handcuffed by bad contracts and have a barren farm system.

 

It would be far wiser to make moves with both the short and long term goals in mind.

[Elktonnick]

Of course we still have the resources to acquire a front line starter. At what cost to the future of this team though?

 

Like Dumbrowski says the Sox will probably acquire a front line starter via free agency not via the trade route. Although, they may get lesser lights through possible trades but nothing spectacular IMO.

[User Name]

I'm not complaining. I am offering my critical analysis of the trade. There is a difference. And if I have repeated my opinion too many times, it's only because I am responding to other's posts. That's why I come to Talksox.

 

I respectfully suggest that if you don't like my "complaining", or are bored by my posts, or find them so laughable, then don't read them.

 

Feisty.

 

Still, as I said before, I'm willing to hold off on immediate judgement because of DD's excellent track record with trades. And obviously, I too am of the line of thought that the price for Kimbrel looks outrageous at first glance.