Craig Kimbrel to Boston

[a700hitter]

Its not about the prospects, its the value given up. Add Swihart to that mix, and maybe they could have found an ace with that haul. Maybe there was a three team trade out there.

 

I get that this team needed relief help, but there were more reasonable options out there. Papelbon, O'day, Clippard... none of those guys would have cost remotely this much.

Clippard. Is there a vomit emoticon? Papelbon? He is expensive. His fastball velocity is way down, and the Nats aren't going to give him away for free, especially since Storen blows up under pressure.

[a700hitter]

It's an example of a principle. The bigger the example the more obvious the point.

 

Is it really so hard to love a result but hate what had to be done to get there that we have to mock Kimmi for saying it out loud?

I didn't mock her, but i did mock you for a ridiculous analogy. I just asked her a question. You stepped in with an ******* analogy. Go about your business and post about baseball. kimmi does fine defending herself.

[sk7326]

Do you think Koji is built for closer anymore?

 

Not much less than Kimbrel. Uehara was the better pitcher last season, even when you account for bulk. It's a lot easier to regulate a dude's workload as a Mr 9th inning. Uehara has experience with coming into tougher spots than Kimbrel, but clearly he has to be managed like a faberge egg now. That also happens to be how Kimbrel has been managed his whole career.

 

Now I see a lot of "Dombrowski did what he had to do" and excitement the Red Sox traded for a reliever they had heard of. Some fairly classic Mel Hall-era Yankees thinking there. This was a bizarre use of prospect heft, and a fairly risky pickup.

[sk7326]

Clippard. Is there a vomit emoticon? Papelbon? He is expensive. His fastball velocity is way down, and the Nats aren't going to give him away for free, especially since Storen blows up under pressure.

 

Papelbon is fully capable of being a "proven closer" - which is not a particularly taxing gig. O'Day is basically the best reliever in the league at his specific job - getting righties out. This move limits the Sox options in other deals (without being similar overpays) and is just a fairly myopic view of bullpen construction.

[a700hitter]

Papelbon is fully capable of being a "proven closer" - which is not a particularly taxing gig. O'Day is basically the best reliever in the league at his specific job - getting righties out. This move limits the Sox options in other deals (without being similar overpays) and is just a fairly myopic view of bullpen construction.

We don't know what else is on DD's shopping list and whether he will be able to execute his plan. This is just the start and people are whining as if these guys were going to play for us. They were never going to crack our lineup unless tragedy befalls the guys ahead of them.

 

Papelbon? Let's see where he ends up and what he costs in a trade before we bemoan not getting him. I am a big papelbon fan, but at this stage, Kimbrel is the much better bet.

[mvp 78]

It's a better move than Ben made the past year.

[sk7326]

We don't know what else is on DD's shopping list and whether he will be able to execute his plan. This is just the start and people are whining as if these guys were going to play for us. They were never going to crack our lineup unless tragedy befalls the guys ahead of them.

 

Papelbon? Let's see where he ends up and what he costs in a trade before we bemoan not getting him. I am a big papelbon fan, but at this stage, Kimbrel is the much better bet.

 

Oh I wouldn't want Papelbon either. You could probably get the job done necessary for an entire bullpen for that price. It's just classic glazed eyes at the 9th inning. Almost every team that has gotten to the finish line the last few years got this gig done for much cheaper - in terms of dollars and prospects. Padres get credit - turned a luxury item into four prospects, one who might do more for their team next season than Kimbrel does for Boston. (not likely, but not impossible)

[a700hitter]

Oh I wouldn't want Papelbon either. You could probably get the job done necessary for an entire bullpen for that price. It's just classic glazed eyes at the 9th inning. Almost every team that has gotten to the finish line the last few years got this gig done for much cheaper - in terms of dollars and prospects. Padres get credit - turned a luxury item into four prospects, one who might do more for their team next season than Kimbrel does for Boston. (not likely, but not impossible)

We have more money than most teams and more good prospects than most team. We also have had more last place finishes than all other teams in the last 4 years. Something had to give.

[a700hitter]

If we want to bitch and moan about squandering assets, do we really need to look any further than Panda, Hanley and Porcello --a $250 million shopping cart of crap?

[sk7326]

We have more money than most teams and more good prospects than most team. We also have had more last place finishes than all other teams in the last 4 years. Something had to give.

 

Of course. And making Bagwell for Andersen flavoured (obviously time will judge the results, but it's the valuation) moves never stop being bad ideas. It's not that they got a poor pitcher - they got a good pitcher coming off of his worst season (but still good). It is the price they paid, the opportunity cost and what is says about priorities and valuation. And Kimbrel helps settle the one inning where things were actually not too bad. You'd like a much more significant MARGINAL improvement when trading quality stuff.

[a700hitter]

Of course. And making Bagwell for Andersen flavoured (obviously time will judge the results, but it's the valuation) moves never stop being bad ideas. It's not that they got a poor pitcher - they got a good pitcher coming off of his worst season (but still good). It is the price they paid, the opportunity cost and what is says about priorities and valuation. And Kimbrel helps settle the one inning where things were actually not too bad. You'd like a much more significant MARGINAL improvement when trading quality stuff.

Bagwell... the go to analogy for bad trades. The FO there had bagwell blocked at 3B by Scott Cooper. Very poor judgment. Also, they traded him for 4 weeks of a 38 year old set up guy, not 3 years of a 29 year old All Star closer. I think you might be overstating your case just a tad. If you want to be unhappy about this, it is your choice, but this is not a back breaker for the Sox --not even close, not now or in 3 years. It will improve the team, whether the price is inflated or not. Were you this upset about flushing $250 million down the toilet for Panda, Hanley and Porcello? That was huge value for nothing in return.

[sk7326]

Bagwell... the go to analogy for bad trades. The FO there had bagwell blocked at 3B by Scott Cooper. Very poor judgment. Also, they traded him for 4 weeks of a 38 year old set up guy, not 3 years of a 29 year old All Star closer. I think you might be overstating your case just a tad. If you want to be unhappy about this, it is your choice, but this is not a back breaker for the Sox --not even close, not now or in 3 years. It will improve the team, whether the price is inflated or not. Were you this upset about flushing $250 million down the toilet for Panda, Hanley and Porcello? That was huge value for nothing in return.

 

It is modestly improving the one part of their bullpen which was actually pretty good.

 

Panda was an attempt to improve a position they got literally nothing out of. Year 1 was a failure - but the attempt actually made sense. Panda being an average regular would have been a significant (overpaid, but significant) improvement because their alternatives were piles of garbage. Ramirez (well, Ramirez and Panda together) was genuinely weird, and was stated at the time.

 

The Red Sox are getting more than they did when they dealt for Andersen - they are also paying more. And even if the prospect is blocked, it doesn't make the "near big league premium position prospect is worth a 9th inning reliver" calculation any more sensible.

[Kimmi]

A farm system's sole purpose is to provide players for the big club. Few prospects themselves make it to the big club. Many who do never turn out to be a Mookie Betts or a Xander Bogaerts but raather are more likely to be a Will Middlebrooks, Lars Anderson, Manny Delcarmen or a Michael Bowdoiin. So giving up prospects no matter how promising for an established All Star is a very good strategy.

 

I understand that part of the reason for building a farm is to have the pieces to trade. We can't possibly play all of the prospects, and Margot and Guerra were blocked anyway. I understand all that and I have no problem with Dombrowski trading these guys to fill a need.

 

What I have a problem with is the steep price. Just because the Sox have the pieces and just because those prospects likely don't have a place on the Sox doesn't mean that you give them away for nothing. Yes, I know Kimbrel is far from nothing. I just think Dombrowski could have gotten Kimbrel for less, or he could have gotten better value back for what he gave up. That's all.

[a700hitter]

It is modestly improving the one part of their bullpen which was actually pretty good.

 

Panda was an attempt to improve a position they got literally nothing out of. Year 1 was a failure - but the attempt actually made sense. Panda being an average regular would have been a significant (overpaid, but significant) improvement because their alternatives were piles of garbage. Ramirez (well, Ramirez and Panda together) was genuinely weird, and was stated at the time.

 

The Red Sox are getting more than they did when they dealt for Andersen - they are also paying more. And even if the prospect is blocked, it doesn't make the "near big league premium position prospect is worth a 9th inning reliver" calculation any more sensible.

You really seem less upset about the $250 million flushed down the toilet than this. You don't even mention Porcello. I guess that is because you thought the extension was a good deal and you are still holding out hope that it will be a good deal.

 

As for your statement that this deal "is modestly improving the one part of their bullpen which was actually pretty good", I think you have a huge blind spot. Our bullpen was the worst. Kimbrel is not replacing Koji. He is being added to a pen that will still have Koji. If you can't see Kimbrel's addition to the bullpen as a major improvement, I think you have some blind spot that I can't explain.

[a700hitter]

I understand that part of the reason for building a farm is to have the pieces to trade. We can't possibly play all of the prospects, and Margot and Guerra were blocked anyway. I understand all that and I have no problem with Dombrowski trading these guys to fill a need.

 

What I have a problem with is the steep price. Just because the Sox have the pieces and just because those prospects likely don't have a place on the Sox doesn't mean that you give them away for nothing. Yes, I know Kimbrel is far from nothing. I just think Dombrowski could have gotten Kimbrel for less, or he could have gotten better value back for what he gave up. That's all.

No one like to pay retail prices, but at least the Red Sox can afford it -- both in $ and prospects. Complain if you like, but this improves us in a crucial area where we sucked last year. This shouldn't be causing knots in your stomach.

[Kimmi]

Market bears worth. DD and Preller have been talking since the end of the season, there were negotiations going on and I'm sure that this was the most comfortable price that DD could get to.

 

That said, it is a big price, but you pay a premium on making early moves and keeping other teams from coming in and stealing a player away while you wait for the price to drop.

 

I look at it this way: maybe the Sox could have waited and tried to not include Guerra. So they wait, and they get outbid. Now they're left w the farm but a pen that is leaky. Give me the chance to win a WS for the next 3 years and you can have Guerra.

 

I understand the desire and the benefits of making early moves, but if this is the most comfortable price Dombrowski could get, perhaps showing some patience would have been the way to go here.

 

Again, I have no problem with trading prospects. Ben (and Theo) were probably a little too attached to them. I just don't want to watch Dombrowski become reckless with our farm system, just because he can. Not saying that he will do that, but he did not make very good use of his resources in that trade, IMO.

[a700hitter]

I understand the desire and the benefits of making early moves, but if this is the most comfortable price Dombrowski could get, perhaps showing some patience would have been the way to go here.

 

Again, I have no problem with trading prospects. Ben (and Theo) were probably a little too attached to them. I just don't want to watch Dombrowski become reckless with our farm system, just because he can. Not saying that he will do that, but he did not make very good use of his resources in that trade, IMO.

In your opinion, has the philosophy changed with this first deal?

[Kimmi]

And what is a top 5 relief arm in all of baseball worth?

 

Ask the Royals what Wade Davis is worth!

 

Ask the Mets what they would have been willing to pay for a closer who made his saves!

 

Do not underestimate what a top shelf bullpen can do for a team. The Royals just won the World Series with neither an offense nor a rotation that was in any way elite, simply because the bullpen didn't give up runs and allowed the team to keep fighting back in late innings.

 

Well according to Fangraphs, Kimbrel was worth 1.5 WAR or $12 mil. We will be paying that in salary alone next year, not to mention the 4 prospects given up.

 

I do not underestimate the importance of a strong bullpen, and I quoted Kimbrel's WAR somewhat tongue in cheek. I know having a strong BP is important. I just think that a very strong BP can be put together at a much cheaper cost.

 

I have always been against paying a lot for relievers. I just think there are better ways to use your resources, as good relievers can be found very cheaply. I was also not happy with Koji's $9mil a year.

 

As I've said, I'm glad that we have Kimbrel. I just wish it didn't cost us so much.

[a700hitter]

Well according to Fangraphs, Kimbrel was worth 1.5 WAR or $12 mil. We will be paying that in salary alone next year, not to mention the 4 prospects given up.

 

I do not underestimate the importance of a strong bullpen, and I quoted Kimbrel's WAR somewhat tongue in cheek. I know having a strong BP is important. I just think that a very strong BP can be put together at a much cheaper cost.

 

I have always been against paying a lot for relievers. I just think there are better ways to use your resources, as good relievers can be found very cheaply. I was also not happy with Koji's $9mil a year.

 

As I've said, I'm glad that we have Kimbrel. I just wish it didn't cost us so much.

Like I said in the other thread, no one like to pay retail. We bought a quality item. There is no denying that.

 

If you want to be unhappy about it, that is your right. I am optimistic about this move. Would it be fair to say that you are pessimistic about it?

[Dojji]

In other words would it be fair to say that the world is literally upside down?

[a700hitter]

In other words would it be fair to say that the world is literally upside down?

LOL!! Yes, it seems to be.

[Kimmi]

I agree with this post very much. I would even add a few other young names to your list. People can and will shout and holler about this being an overpay or maybe we should have gone in a different direction via the trade. Doesn't matter. We just got better. I'm happy. The only reason to keep Margot and Guerra for sure was to use them in a trade. Once again as most of us realize, they were not going to be playing in Boston. The Red Sox whole concept of building up the farm system has been great. We have a general manager who obviously intends to move some of those players who have some talent but are clearly blocked. We might not always appreciate the direct moves that he makes but personally I like to see some action taken. Hopefully there is more to come via either free agency or the trade. Trading these 4 does not look like any damage to our future was done.

 

I am happy that we got better.

 

We absolutely needed to trade some prospects to make our team better. I don't think anyone is arguing against trading prospects, especially those that are blocked. The dislike in the trade is the potential value given up versus the value we got back. I know that some of the prospects will never reach that potential, but that should not diminish their value when making a trade.

[Kimmi]

Also built some s***** MLB clubs if I remember. Actual MLB performance is more important than prospect projections.

 

Time will tell if DD let the right guys go. For now, the MLB bullpen is better than we've had in a few years.

 

Lightened load on Koji. Tax pushed to less pressurized situations. Top flight closer. That's a lights out 7-8-9.

 

I don't disagree with any of this. That doesn't change what I said.

[sk7326]

You really seem less upset about the $250 million flushed down the toilet than this. You don't even mention Porcello. I guess that is because you thought the extension was a good deal and you are still holding out hope that it will be a good deal.

 

As for your statement that this deal "is modestly improving the one part of their bullpen which was actually pretty good", I think you have a huge blind spot. Our bullpen was the worst. Kimbrel is not replacing Koji. He is being added to a pen that will still have Koji. If you can't see Kimbrel's addition to the bullpen as a major improvement, I think you have some blind spot that I can't explain.

 

No, he is replacing Koji - Kimbrel has no experience doing anything but three out - no baserunner 9th inning pitching. Koji goes to some sort of setup role, which is a bit more taxing for a dude his age. There are still four other relievers to land. And none of this exempts the exorbitant price paid to get Kimbrel. That cannot be separated from the acquisition. Apparently there was a "holy s***, we need a closer" movement afoot I did not read about being out of the Sports Hub/EEI range like I am. Who knew?

[Palodios]

I've said my piece on this deal. The Red Sox spent a large amount of value on a player who could potentially be the best at his position. There is plenty to be optimistic about with Kimbrel, but now let's see the ace.

[Kimmi]

On the other hand, what were the odds that one , let alone all four prospects, would end up being productive players for the Sox? This team needs quality bp arms. If Kimbrel is healthy than this was a justifiable deal.

 

I understand that, as do all GMs. I am not pained by the prospects being gone or by Kimbrel being here. I am pained by the lopsidedness of the deal.

 

No worries, I'll get over it, because it did make our team better.

 

And if we sign Price to a $200 mil contract, that will be painful as well, but I'll get over that as well.

[Kimmi]

People need to understand that our current roster produced a last place finish. Changes need to be made to get out of last place. Every team in our division that fnished ahead of us will be making moves to improve. It's not like DD is in the process of breaking up the 1978 Red Sox juggernaut --truly a sad period. He is trying not to finish last, and each of those guys was blocked in the Red Sox organization by very young players. We got an All Star bullpen pitcher helping to address the team's biggest need. And people are wringing their hands. LOL! I am with you CP, we just got better, and that makes me happy.

 

No one here is suggesting that the team stay status quo. No one here is suggesting that we don't give up any prospects. Everyone here understands that we have an abundance of prospects, some of whom are blocked, and that they are a valuable trade asset. Everyone here understands that we needed bullpen help and that Kimbrel will help the team.

 

The issue is with the value of what we gave up versus what we got back. Dombrowski did not make the best use of those assets.

[Kimmi]

It's an example of a principle. The bigger the example the more obvious the point.

 

Is it really so hard to love a result but hate what had to be done to get there that we have to mock Kimmi for saying it out loud?

 

It's really not a difficult concept to understand.

[a700hitter]

No, he is replacing Koji - Kimbrel has no experience doing anything but three out - no baserunner 9th inning pitching. Koji goes to some sort of setup role, which is a bit more taxing for a dude his age. There are still four other relievers to land. And none of this exempts the exorbitant price paid to get Kimbrel. That cannot be separated from the acquisition. Apparently there was a "holy s***, we need a closer" movement afoot I did not read about being out of the Sports Hub/EEI range like I am. Who knew?

Koji will be an 8th inning guy. With a carefully managed workload, I am think your argument that the 8th inning will overtax him is overstated.

[a700hitter]

No one here is suggesting that the team stay status quo. No one here is suggesting that we don't give up any prospects. Everyone here understands that we have an abundance of prospects, some of whom are blocked, and that they are a valuable trade asset. Everyone here understands that we needed bullpen help and that Kimbrel will help the team.

 

The issue is with the value of what we gave up versus what we got back. Dombrowski did not make the best use of those assets.

I get it. You don't like paying retail. No one does. If you want to pull your hair out over this trade, go ahead. I am optimistic about it.