2016 Red Sox Hot Stove Discussion Thread

[jad]

What better end to the season than re-hiring the manager that took two of the highest paid teams in the league to consecutive last place finishes? What 'til 2017!

[mvp 78]

What better end to the season than re-hiring the manager that took two of the highest paid teams in the league to consecutive last place finishes? What 'til 2017!

 

They have taken so many PR hits lately, that there was zero chance they'd dump a manager with cancer.

[VA Sox Fan]

They have taken so many PR hits lately, that there was zero chance they'd dump a manager with cancer.

 

I know and Luvello has been a little better actually

[a700hitter]

They have taken so many PR hits lately, that there was zero chance they'd dump a manager with cancer.

yep. When it was announced that he had cancer, I thought that it would be very difficult to fire him. I hope he makes a full recovery, but he is not part of the solution.

[Palodios]

He'll make an excellent scapegoat next year.

[mvp 78]

He'll make an excellent scapegoat next year.

 

That's pretty negative thinking. You already think they'll suck?

[reYoukilis]

What better end to the season than re-hiring the manager that took two of the highest paid teams in the league to consecutive last place finishes? What 'til 2017!

You unpatient people. You have to get worse before you get better when rebuilding. Next year will be the real measuring stick now that the different moves and prospects have finally started to show their potential, not counting Sandoval and Hanley who were chosen precisely because of the lack of patience.

[cp176]

Whether you happen to like it or not the Red Sox did the right thing by bringing Farrell back. I'm not sure that I think he is the best possible option to lead the way but I certainly don't know who is. I'm not sure that I understand the the firing of Arnie Beyeler but Hey it's their gig. The Red Sox start to hit and Chili Davis rises from the ashes. Team starts to win and Brian Butterfield (as he should) starts to get credit for being the teaching coach he is. We all get frustrated from time to time, but firing John Farrell after what has developed would have been akin to selling Babe Ruth. If it works out - great. If it doesn't - move on once again.

[mvp 78]

Patience has nothing to do with Farrell's managing ability or lack thereof.

[Bellhorn04]

A decent piece on the Sox by Joel Sherman of the NY Post. Interesting comment in here by a scout about E-Rod's potential.

 

http://nypost.com/2015/10/03/is-red-soxs-sudden-rise-for-real-3-questions-before-the-stamp/

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox are definitely intriguing for next season, that much is for sure. Without solid pitching, they will continue to mire, though

[a700hitter]

The sox are definitely intriguing for next season, that much is for sure. Without solid pitching, they will continue to mire, though

Pitching is the key and the best formula for sustained success is a solid rotation. Bullpens are very important, but too inconsistent from year to year. This season we rolled out the worst rotation on day one than I have seen since the days of Jerry Stephenson. Whether they underperformed or not, we were going nowhere with that crew. And we spent a lot of money on that garage.

[sk7326]

I noted that the issues the team had early seemed to point to a coaching change - obviously that is still the case. However, managing is the one thing which is the biggest black box - where people flat out don't know what makes a manager good or bad. Teams have won with bad managers, teams have lost with good ones - it's not simply as reductive as wins.

 

Farrell coming back is fine - there is a decent chance Lovullo will be gone ... he's clearly one of the most qualified managerial candidates out there (even before his acting stint with Boston), and could be on any number of shortlists. I'd also think Lovullo would not want the job in Boston anyway based on how the circumstance would have to play out. Tactically, Farrell is solid - he certainly has never had a greatest hits of howlers like Matt Williams did this past season, nor even what Ned Yost has done (and of course Kansas City is winning despite it). The guys clearly respect him.

 

In a lot of ways the biggest mistakes the org made were setting the club up in 2014 for the title defense - too much wishing on stars (in the outfield) that had a lot of risk associated with it. (that Victorino could stay healthy or that a Nava/Carp platoon could still work, JBJ). 2015 clearly did not go well, but a lot of it was hasty makeup work for 2014's non-moves.

 

Pitching's gotta be better - duh. How that manifests itself between rotation and bullpen, I honestly don't care. Just make it happen. The lineup is largely set - and looks to be quite good. Of course, if the Sox wanted to take their coffers out for a walk and look at a Jason Heyward (or a Justin Upton who fits the classic LF mold more cleanly), I would not have any real issue there.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pitching is the key and the best formula for sustained success is a solid rotation. Bullpens are very important, but too inconsistent from year to year. This season we rolled out the worst rotation on day one than I have seen since the days of Jerry Stephenson. Whether they underperformed or not, we were going nowhere with that crew. And we spent a lot of money on that garage.

 

Look at us man. We had quite possibly the most inconsistent hitting in the league. Gangbusters for 4 months, incredibly anemic for two. Our only stalwarts were 3-4/5 of our rotation, even with injury, and the back end of our pen. We took what really wasn't a good team and got into the playoffs even after coasting for the final 2 weeks. Pitching fixes all evils in the regular season. It is awfully rare to see a team slug its way to the post season with no pitching to speak of, but there are plenty of teams that have made the post season with anemic offenses and lights out pitching.

[sk7326]

Look at us man. We had quite possibly the most inconsistent hitting in the league. Gangbusters for 4 months, incredibly anemic for two. Our only stalwarts were 3-4/5 of our rotation, even with injury, and the back end of our pen. We took what really wasn't a good team and got into the playoffs even after coasting for the final 2 weeks. Pitching fixes all evils in the regular season. It is awfully rare to see a team slug its way to the post season with no pitching to speak of, but there are plenty of teams that have made the post season with anemic offenses and lights out pitching.

 

Pitching is key. But given the Yankees scored the 2nd most runs in the AL, and 8th in team ERA it is less convincing. (3rd in offensive WAR). Indeed this year 5 of the Top 7 offensive teams made the playoffs while two below median pitching staffs (Yankees and Rangers) got in.

 

Yankees pitching though was pretty good - and hurt by a pretty lousy defense.

 

Teams have won by slugging around "enough" pitching - happens all the time. Truly one dimensional teams are rare, whatever the shape.

Edited October 7, 2015 by sk7326

[Dojji]

Here's an idea about how to help the rotation without going after the big names. Did you guys know that Wei-Yin Chen of the Baltimore Orioles is confirmed to be a free agent this winter? Check out his numbers, this dude is a good starting pitcher and he pitched with very good numbers in a hitter's park down in Baltimore last year. Bring him in, let Buchholz walk, go with a rotation of Chen, Eddie, Porcello, Miley, and either Wright or Kelly, whichever one looks best this Spring. That's not a worldbeating rotation but it shouldn't be a liability either.

 

Since Chen isn't necessaril a so-called big name free agent, you might even be able to sign him for a contract that leaves you open to go for another big contract starter, either through free agency or trade. I wouldn't mind going for Chen and an inning burner with some quality like Yovanni Gallardo.

 

If you bring in Chen and Gallardo, then the rotation of Chen-Eddie-Porcello-Gallardo-Miley actually looks pretty good down the middle, a little light on top but very stong down the middle of the rotation with a lot of reasonable to good quality 180-200 inning guys who usually keep their ERA below 4, when you have a good offense that's something you can usually get away with.

Edited October 8, 2015 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Neither Chen nor Gallardo based on this past year's form, are any better than Miley. Better off giving Owens a regular gig than that.

[Dojji]

that's absolute BS I'm sorry. Chen is at least a solid #2 starter, he pitched at an ace level last year, and Gallardo is a #3 and always has been. Miley's durable, but he's a bottom of the rotation guy.

 

Both Chen and Gallardo actually pitched at a 4 WAR level last year. That's exactly what we need.

Edited October 8, 2015 by Dojji

[sk7326]

that's absolute BS I'm sorry. Chen is at least a solid #2 starter, he pitched at an ace level last year, and Gallardo is a #3 and always has been. Miley's durable, but he's a bottom of the rotation guy.

 

Both Chen and Gallardo actually pitched at a 4 WAR level last year. That's exactly what we need.

 

They are interesting cases - both places where fWAR and bWAR disagree violently ... neither Chen nor Gallardo were especially good in fielding independent dimensions. Gallardo's strikeout rate has been plummeting in particular. Chen's strikeout rate is more in Miley's area - okay but nothing special, with a much more pronounced flyball tendency. Of the two Gallardo is a more sensible choice just because he has been a very good starter before some real swing and miss in him.

[a700hitter]

Chen is much better than Miley, maybe not a #2, but better than Miley.

[cp176]

There is a big difference between people that pitch in the bigs and those that pitch really well. It is very important to have inning eaters for sure but the odds of winning titles become enhanced by having guys that just don't eat innings. Balance is important as is depth but if you can't have it all or you are slightly in rebuild mode I'm thinking that you might be a little numb if you don't start by having the best defensive team that you can have first. Pitching being part of your defense. There probably will always be exceptions to every rule but in terms of who makes the playoffs and who doesn't, most have at least one if not two guys who could be top of the rotation arms. Our team went in a different direction this year during their off-season. It did not work. Go get the arms!

[a700hitter]

Since Papelbon left the Red Sox before the 2012 season, their bullpen has ranked 25th with an average velocity of 92.3 mph.

And this is on Fenway's fast rigged gun.

[jacksonianmarch]

Building a pen is easier said than done. Most FA acquisitions in the relief corps are busts. You need to target the right guys in FA AND build the right farm for it. Like I said before, the Yankees had f***ing nothing after the starters and before Mariano after Mendoza, Stanton, and Nelson lost effectiveness. Cash decided to make it a priority in the draft and it is paying off. That being said, he had to forgo higher ceiling players. But look at the drafts since 2006.

 

2006- Now we had Chamberlain in this draft, but he wasn't earmarked as a reliever. We drafted Betances as a HSer and he ended up relieving. McCallister ended up being a solid reliever in Cleveland, but he was a HSer. Guys who were picked as pure relievers were David Robertson and Mark Melancon, 2 current closers

 

They didn't hit again until 2010 on pure relievers: Tommy Kahnle came out as a reliever and is now doing a good job in Colorado. Danny Burawa was a primary reliever and he made his MLB debut this yr and was claimed by Atlanta and will likely be a back end piece this yr. Chase Whitley was drafted as a pure reliever and ended up converting to the rotation, saw starts in NY last yr and this yr and is on the shelf with TJS. Preston Claiborne was a reliever drafted late who threw some good innings for us before moving on to Miami

 

2011 we grabbed Wetherell in the 8th round and he will be in the bigs next yr as a high velo relief arm. Mark Montgomery was a closer when drafted and if it wasn't for an arm injury, he'd have been in NY 2 yrs ago. Branden Pinder had a good year for us out of the pen, he was a reliever grabbed in the 16th round. Nick Goody was a closer at LSU when we drafted him. He made his big league debut this yr after needing TJS last season.

 

In 2012, we grabbed a reliever in Corey Black who was converted to starter and ended up being dealt for Soriano. Garrison was a reliever drafted who made it to AA this yr.

 

In 2013, we drafted Rumbelow in the 7th round and he made his big league debut this yr. We also grabbed Walby and a few other guys who are in the lower levels.

 

In 2014, we took Lindgren in the second round and he made his big league debut before bone chips in his elbow ended his yr.

 

In 2015, we took Chance Adams in the 5th round and he dominated his way up to High A after being drafted. He's a fast riser as well. There are other high velo relief arms taken but its too early to point them out

 

Basically NY is drafting guys with solid fastballs and maybe another pitch that look to have plus potential who are relievers in school and taking them higher than they normally would be taken. They then plop them into the pen in the minors and don't attempt to stretch them out. These guys come up and have filled important roles on this team. While most of the guys above aren't lights out relievers yet, they ate enough innings out of the pen to save the arms of the higher upside guys.

[jacksonianmarch]

What scares me most about your team is Dombrowski. Your team has some shiny parts but really no consistency on either end, especially since you're gonna have to figure out how to get cancer Pablo and cancer Hanley back in to the lineup or out to another club. He has a history of taking shiny parts and getting real production for them. With all the negative press Harvey is getting, my guess is he moves and I absolutely guarantee Dombrowski will be involved. Now dealing to the Mets will involve real MLB talent. They wont be a club willing to accept a minor league package, you'll have to move a big league piece for him. I have said all along that I think Betts will be a Met this offseason. I think Betts moves to NY, Harvey comes to Boston, Hanley moves to 1b, JBJ goes to CF, Rusney to LF and you go out and sign a guy like Upton or Heyward to man RF. And while Betts is truly a rising star, Harvey is a perennial CY candidate in his mid 20s.

[Spudboy]

I quote Chad Finn: "No way I trade Betts for a pitcher with a scar on his elbow."

 

 

Betts should go nowhere.

[cp176]

What scares me most about your team is Dombrowski. Your team has some shiny parts but really no consistency on either end, especially since you're gonna have to figure out how to get cancer Pablo and cancer Hanley back in to the lineup or out to another club. He has a history of taking shiny parts and getting real production for them. With all the negative press Harvey is getting, my guess is he moves and I absolutely guarantee Dombrowski will be involved. Now dealing to the Mets will involve real MLB talent. They wont be a club willing to accept a minor league package, you'll have to move a big league piece for him. I have said all along that I think Betts will be a Met this offseason. I think Betts moves to NY, Harvey comes to Boston, Hanley moves to 1b, JBJ goes to CF, Rusney to LF and you go out and sign a guy like Upton or Heyward to man RF. And while Betts is truly a rising star, Harvey is a perennial CY candidate in his mid 20s.

 

I don't see Betts moving to the Mets. Unless you have read or heard of the Red Sox targeting Harvey during the the off-season. My guess is that who ever they decide to go after, the team they deal with is going to be very excited about the possibility of acquiring a young catcher. If Harvey was the only potential number one out there, possibly but he isn't. Pretty sure they kick the tires of free agency before they decide to ship anybody for anybody.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kicking the tires in FA will cost a lot of coin and years. We will see if Henry goes back on his word

[vjcsmoke]

I was surprised we splurged all that money on Sandoval & Hanley Ramirez. One of them ok... both of them it didn't make sense financially. Dombrowski might have to pull another "Nick Punto" trade just to get out from all that salary.

 

And our starting rotation still looks to be a mess. We have a couple of guys who might be #2-5 starting pitchers but no clear cut #1. Buchholz we will likely pick up his option, but even if we do he has never been able to stay healthy a whole season.

 

Free agent pitchers: Cueto, Price, Greinke, Zimmerman, Samardzija. The top 3 of that group could easily be a #1 pitcher for an interested team, perhaps the Red Sox.

 

Harvey is going to be VERY expensive. Sonny Gray might turn out as good eventually and his price in terms of capital is probably more affordable.

 

IF Oakland accepts a package centered around JBJ, I think Dombrowski makes a move. Swihart, I would rather keep. Very hard to find good young catchers with offensive upside.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2015/10/7/9468237/the-2015-2016-buyers-guide-trade-edition

Edited October 10, 2015 by vjcsmoke

[d-money]

Any chance they bring back rich hill?

[Bellhorn04]

Any chance they bring back rich hill?

 

I'd say a chance, yes. Depends on other offers he gets.