Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[mvp 78]

Don't bother. iortiz doesn't actually understand WAR, nor does he understand the numbers discrepancy between hitters and pitchers. You are talking to a wall here.

 

Fact!

[a700hitter]

Dick squared times 2.

[Northern Star]

Dick squared times 2.

 

Is this a calculus thing? Thunder? A little help here?

[iortiz]

Such a dick. Check that -- 2 dicks.

 

I think MVP is trolling.... For nth time, should we call it fact? LOL!

[Spudboy]

Palmer was a headcase that they have said that only Weaver could motivate. In those years, Weaver always tapped Cuellar and McNally before going to Palmer. It was an unbelievable staff, although Gibson and Carlton were a pretty good tandem. So were Marichal and Gaylord Perry ,and McClain and Lolich and Seaver, Koosman, Gentry and Ryan weren't bad either.

 

Can't take anything away from those guys. But Baltimore had 4 20 game winners.

 

Have we seen that since?

 

I still think Gibson and Blue are the two best non-Sox pitchers I have seen.

[Spudboy]

Horseface Lackey came up big for the Cards today.

 

7 2/3, 10K, ?H, 1ER.

 

He sure would look good at the front of the Sox rotation about now.

 

He was a Number 1 with the Angels. Their Ace.

 

He may not be considered anything more than a #2 now. But he would be our best pitcher.

 

It was really f***ing dumb to trade him. They blew up the entire staff when they did not have to ( regardless what the friend of a guy who Fred knows from another board says ). He only "hinted" at retiring as a ploy in the hope the Sox would sign a new deal with him.

[sk7326]

I really used to enjoy listening to Palmer up until 2 or 3 years ago. Like you said, he knows pitching and you can learn a lot from him. Recently though, he has become a little snooty, for lack of a better word. And his sidekick, Thorne, has always been insufferable. It's miserable for me to have to listen to the O's broadcasts.

 

Palmer can be annoying - I live in DC so I get to hear a lot - although compared to FP on the Nationals broadcast it is no comparison. Palmer gets a bit snooty - those many years on ABC can puff up a head.

[Spudboy]

[a700hitter]

Horseface Lackey came up big for the Cards today.

 

7 2/3, 10K, ?H, 1ER.

 

He sure would look good at the front of the Sox rotation about now.

 

He was a Number 1 with the Angels. Their Ace.

 

He may not be considered anything more than a #2 now. But he would be our best pitcher.

 

It was really f***ing dumb to trade him. They blew up the entire staff when they did not have to ( regardless what the friend of a guy who Fred knows from another board says ). He only "hinted" at retiring as a ploy in the hope the Sox would sign a new deal with him.

 

At least he is a proven winner. We don't have one of those.

[iortiz]

Horseface Lackey came up big for the Cards today.

 

7 2/3, 10K, ?H, 1ER.

 

He sure would look good at the front of the Sox rotation about now.

 

He was a Number 1 with the Angels. Their Ace.

 

He may not be considered anything more than a #2 now. But he would be our best pitcher.

 

It was really f***ing dumb to trade him. They blew up the entire staff when they did not have to ( regardless what the friend of a guy who Fred knows from another board says ). He only "hinted" at retiring as a ploy in the hope the Sox would sign a new deal with him.

 

After his TJ and 2013 performance, I said, at least we are going to get a couple of good years from Lacke after all those bad years here. Then he was traded and I said Whata f***? It's funny, I miss Lackey these days. haha.

[SoxHop]

Horseface Lackey came up big for the Cards today.

 

7 2/3, 10K, ?H, 1ER.

 

He sure would look good at the front of the Sox rotation about now.

 

He was a Number 1 with the Angels. Their Ace.

 

He may not be considered anything more than a #2 now. But he would be our best pitcher.

 

It was really f***ing dumb to trade him. They blew up the entire staff when they did not have to ( regardless what the friend of a guy who Fred knows from another board says ). He only "hinted" at retiring as a ploy in the hope the Sox would sign a new deal with him.

 

Lackey forced that trade. As much as I really dislike Lackeys character....... he was just what the Sox need right now. No way they traded away a year of paying pocket change for Lackeys production unless they had to. He really disliked Boston I think....... fair enough....... he was an ass.....

 

I think the FO got what they could for him. Hell, if Craig returned to form and was is in the lineup we would be doing much better than we are.

[SoxHop]

At least he is a proven winner. We don't have one of those.

 

This is me flip flopping on the Lester trade.

 

I think there is a high value placed on anyone that can prove they can perform in Boston. We've seen too many players with outstanding resumes show up and not cut it in Boston. There is a factor which needs to be accounted for showing that you can succeed in Boston. Beltre comes to mind, Renteria comes to mind on the opposite spectrum.

 

If you show up in Boston, and perform well...... the Sox should lock you down.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay. Below market? Seriously?

 

Yes, 4 years is below market for Porcello. FanGraphs predicted he would get a 6 year deal as a free agent. This is one of the crucial points of this whole debate.

[Bellhorn04]

Horseface Lackey came up big for the Cards today.

 

7 2/3, 10K, ?H, 1ER.

 

He sure would look good at the front of the Sox rotation about now.

 

He was a Number 1 with the Angels. Their Ace.

 

He may not be considered anything more than a #2 now. But he would be our best pitcher.

 

It was really f***ing dumb to trade him. They blew up the entire staff when they did not have to ( regardless what the friend of a guy who Fred knows from another board says ). He only "hinted" at retiring as a ploy in the hope the Sox would sign a new deal with him.

 

The Lackey trade looks pretty bad at this point. Don't be surprised if something 'leaks' out of the Sox FO about Lackey causing problems last year.

[a700hitter]

I didn't see Masterson's last start, but if his velocity was still arouind 87-88, he needs to be sent to the pen ASAP. Maybe he can rebuild his velocity working out of the pen. His velocity was down last year. It remained down in Spring Training and unless he ticked up on Wednesday, he is still a good 4 MPH below where he needs to be effective. At 87-88, he will be the same 5 + ERA poitcher that he was last year.

[cp176]

I didn't see Masterson's last start, but if his velocity was still arouind 87-88, he needs to be sent to the pen ASAP. Maybe he can rebuild his velocity working out of the pen. His velocity was down last year. It remained down in Spring Training and unless he ticked up on Wednesday, he is still a good 4 MPH below where he needs to be effective. At 87-88, he will be the same 5 + ERA poitcher that he was last year.

 

 

The team continues to make some very interesting moves. The whole off- season pitching process looked to many like a sign and hope deal. An awful lot of faith was placed on a number of pitchers whose track records said that they could have gone either way. Porcello has done what should have been expected of him - the others not so much. Nieves has served as the fall guy here. I hope things work out for the Sox, he was given chicken s*** and expected to make chicken salad of it. I'm not sure how much of a difference any pitching coach could possibly make anyway. Not his fault. They are all big boys - ownership - GM- Manager - Players. Being accountable starts at the top not with the pitching coach. Only one pitching move! They took the easy way out.

[User Name]

Nieves took the fall because it seems like pitchers tuned him out. That is a death sentence in this industry.

[Spudboy]

The team continues to make some very interesting moves. The whole off- season pitching process looked to many like a sign and hope deal. An awful lot of faith was placed on a number of pitchers whose track records said that they could have gone either way. Porcello has done what should have been expected of him - the others not so much. Nieves has served as the fall guy here. I hope things work out for the Sox, he was given chicken s*** and expected to make chicken salad of it. I'm not sure how much of a difference any pitching coach could possibly make anyway. Not his fault. They are all big boys - ownership - GM- Manager - Players. Being accountable starts at the top not with the pitching coach. Only one pitching move! They took the easy way out.

 

Well said.

 

There will be other recriminations should the Sox continue to falter.

[Spudboy]

Nieves took the fall because it seems like pitchers tuned him out. That is a death sentence in this industry.

 

If that is true then a move had to be made I guess.

 

I think that the Sox have several concurrent problems and that this move alone will not enable the Sox to make big progress.

[User Name]

The real annoying thing (for me at least) is that they have guys who should be ready to contribute right about now down at the farm, but the Sox are just super conservative with their pitching prospects. Some of these guys (namely Johnsonn) would be starting in other organnizations. Move Kelly to the BP where he belongs, bring up Johnsonn and put Buch on notice.

[Spudboy]

The real annoying thing (for me at least) is that they have guys who should be ready to contribute right about now down at the farm, but the Sox are just super conservative with their pitching prospects. Some of these guys (namely Johnsonn) would be starting in other organnizations. Move Kelly to the BP where he belongs, bring up Johnsonn and put Buch on notice.

 

Yup. I see it the same way.

[mvp 78]

Johnson wouldn't be starting for other clubs. Jacko clearly told us how his stock plummeted after the last two starts. Duh.

[mvp 78]

Also, if you bring a kid up to early and he dails, the Sox are at fault for rushing him.

 

If you wait too long, the Sox are wasting bullets down in AAA.

[Spudboy]

Also, if you bring a kid up to early and he dails, the Sox are at fault for rushing him.

 

If you wait too long, the Sox are wasting bullets down in AAA.

 

When we should really be more interested in the quality of pitchers they draft and how they develop them.

[cp176]

The real annoying thing (for me at least) is that they have guys who should be ready to contribute right about now down at the farm, but the Sox are just super conservative with their pitching prospects. Some of these guys (namely Johnsonn) would be starting in other organnizations. Move Kelly to the BP where he belongs, bring up Johnsonn and put Buch on notice.

 

 

With the respect to this one, I absolutely agree. I think there are pitchers who are and have been throwing better than Johnson but I think moving somebody to the bullpen if they can't get the starting job done is a smart move. Johnson might not be my first pick but I am all for giving him a chance. I'm still not sold on Nieves being tuned out by anybody. I think that is a cop out big time but somebody had to fall on the sword. It something you either believe or not. We all deserve to see if Rodriguez, Wright, Owens, or Johnson can pitch at this level.

[Kimmi]

I already shared you the chart several times.

 

Well going by your chart, am I correct to assume that you classify pitchers the following way:

 

5+ WAR = Ace

4-5 WAR = #1

3-4 WAR = #2

2-3 WAR = #3

 

If that's the case, then last year there were 18 number 1 pitchers in MLB and 15 number 2 pitchers. That would mean that about half of the teams don't have either a number 1 or a number 2 guy in their rotations, but there are a whole lot of 3-5 pitchers.

 

And that doesn't even make sense. If a pitcher is in the top 20% of all pitchers, he is a #1, next 20%, he's a number 2.

[Kimmi]

Also, if you bring a kid up to early and he dails, the Sox are at fault for rushing him.

 

If you wait too long, the Sox are wasting bullets down in AAA.

 

This is the absolute truth.

[Kimmi]

Here's the thing about this rotation. They have looked bad, but their peripherals show that they have not been nearly as bad as their ERAs indicate, especially Clay. They will get better. It's almost impossible to sustain an underperformance of your xFIP by more than one run.

 

Compare each starter's ERA to his xFIP:

 

Clay ERA 6.03, xFIP 3.10

Kelly ERA 5.72 xFIP 3.27

Porcello ERA 4.38 xFIP 3.72

Miley ERA 7.15 xFIP 5.15

Masterson 5.18 xFIP 4.89

 

We should see significant improvement from Clay, Kelly, and Miley, and modest improvement from Porcello. They still won't be a great staff, but they will be better than what we've seen. They should be middle of the pack. The fact that they're all underperforming their peripherals is an enigma.

[Northern Star]

This is the absolute truth.

 

That's not limited to Boston.

[cp176]

Here's the thing about this rotation. They have looked bad, but their peripherals show that they have not been nearly as bad as their ERAs indicate, especially Clay. They will get better. It's almost impossible to sustain an underperformance of your xFIP by more than one run.

 

Compare each starter's ERA to his xFIP:

 

Clay ERA 6.03, xFIP 3.10

Kelly ERA 5.72 xFIP 3.27

Porcello ERA 4.38 xFIP 3.72

Miley ERA 7.15 xFIP 5.15

Masterson 5.18 xFIP 4.89

 

We should see significant improvement from Clay, Kelly, and Miley, and modest improvement from Porcello. They still won't be a great staff, but they will be better than what we've seen. They should be middle of the pack. The fact that they're all underperforming their peripherals is an enigma.

 

 

almost and should are good words - you are positive for sure. i hope that you are right. It is also possible that one or more of these guys are teetering on being done regardless of what the statistics say. Certainly strange but possible.