Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[iortiz]

I absolutely do think that teams would want him. A healthy #3 starter is worth a lot more than you give it credit for. Look at the list of options from last year, and let me know where he stands in it.

 

 

 

 

Do you have any examples? This is exactly what the Red Sox did with Masterson. He has always been a big inning guy, he's been a high end #2 pitcher years previously, and he cost 10 million. He has pitched okay so far, but he is exactly the kind of pitcher you claim to be looking for.

 

Exactly, the thing is that we do not have a #1 nor #2. Listen, if the strategy had been sign/trade/keep/farm a bunch of Mastersons (as they did) AND sign a #1 and #2 this team would have been really nice even if that had meant not bringing Panda. Thing is that they put all their chips on the O, reason why I said at the beginning of the season that this team was very unbalanced to the point and reason why I started this thread.

[Bellhorn04]

... more to my favor, As I said, I think I could find a ~2.5 WAR/4.3 ERA player cheaper and without committing big bucks/Ys.

 

But you shouldn't be equating a 2.5 WAR with a 4.3 ERA. A 2.5 WAR indicates someone who has been pitching better than a 4.3 ERA would suggest. In Porcello's case some of that ERA with Detroit was attributable to bad defense.

[iortiz]

But you shouldn't be equating a 2.5 WAR with a 4.3 ERA. A 2.5 WAR indicates someone who has been pitching better than a 4.3 ERA would suggest. In Porcello's case some of that ERA with Detroit was attributable to bad defense.

 

/=or

[Bellhorn04]

/=or

 

You've been using WAR a lot here, which is really good. But ERA is not a reliable measure, and you're mixing and matching new school with old school. Like I said, Porcello's WAR says he has been pitching better than a 4.3 ERA.

[iortiz]

You've been using WAR a lot here, which is really good. But ERA is not a reliable measure, and you're mixing and matching new school with old school. Like I said, Porcello's WAR says he has been pitching better than a 4.3 ERA.

 

Yup but still a 2.5 WAR (new school) or 4.3 ERA (old school) track record pitcher is not making/will make 20 M.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2014 a guy named Eric Stults had an ERA of exactly 4.3 for San Diego in 176 innings (the 4.3 ERA is why I picked him).

 

His FanGraphs WAR was 0.1.

[User Name]

iortiz, stop using WAR. You don't understand how it works, hence the discrepancy.

[sk7326]

If you look at 2014 fWAR rankings, 2.5 WAR of Porcello put him at #40 among ALL Qualified pitchers. So, do you think you can fish in the pool every year for a Top 40 pitcher - I mean, do you think you can trawl for John Lackey (2.4 fWAR 2014, 2.5 fWAR in the championship season) every single year? I thought I was an optimist.

[iortiz]

In 2014 a guy named Eric Stults had an ERA of exactly 4.3 for San Diego in 176 innings (the 4.3 ERA is why I picked him).

 

His FanGraphs WAR was 0.1.

mmm... So? What's your point? I have never correlated WAR with ERA. What I said is that neither 2.5 WAR pitcher nor 4.3 ERA pitcher are making and won't make 20 M like the guy you are presenting.

[iortiz]

iortiz, stop using WAR. You don't understand how it works, hence the discrepancy.

 

How's that?

[iortiz]

If you look at 2014 fWAR rankings, 2.5 WAR of Porcello put him at #40 among ALL Qualified pitchers. So, do you think you can fish in the pool every year for a Top 40 pitcher - I mean, do you think you can trawl for John Lackey (2.4 fWAR 2014, 2.5 fWAR in the championship season) every single year? I thought I was an optimist.

Yup, I think I could (VIA FA/trade/farm/actual guys, etc) and cheaper. In a retrospective way go and figure which pitchers posted 2.5 WAR say in the last 5 years and look how much are making. As I said I think I would have pretty good chances to grab at least one who can provide me that WAR and cheaper.

[iortiz]

Hey Bell, I'm going to ask you something. If you were willing to bet in a game and you had to choose one pitching metric and only one, which one would you choose in order to have more possibilities to win in that single game at the end of 5 IP? Edited May 6, 2015 by iortiz

[Bellhorn04]

Hey Bell, I'm going to ask you something. If you were willing to bet in a game and you had to choose one pitching metric and only one, which one would you choose in order to have more possibilities to win in that single game before 5 IP?

 

I'm sorry but I really don't understand the question exactly. But WAR is the metric if I had to pick one.

Edited May 6, 2015 by Bellhorn04

[Spudboy]

Whip

[Bellhorn04]

mmm... So? What's your point? I have never correlated WAR with ERA. What I said is that neither 2.5 WAR pitcher nor 4.3 ERA pitcher are making and won't make 20 M like the guy you are presenting.

 

I've already agreed that Porcello is the first guy with his profile to make $20 million. In spite of that it's still a reasonable deal because of all the other arguments presented here, including the FanGraphs article projecting him for a 6 year $108 million free agent payday.

[iortiz]

I've already agreed that Porcello is the first guy with his profile to make $20 million. In spite of that it's still a reasonable deal because of all the other arguments presented here, including the FanGraphs article projecting him for a 6 year $108 million free agent payday.

 

Well, I disagree if he doesn't improve. I already presented my arguments as well.

 

I think we will agree in disagree.

[iortiz]

I'm sorry but I really don't understand the question exactly. But WAR is the metric if I had to pick one.

 

You would surprise which metric correlates better a W at the end of 5 IP. No 1. OPS (team faced) vs Pitcher, 2. SO/BB 3. ERA 4. SIERA, 5. XFIP 6. WAR.

Edited May 6, 2015 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

Use common sense. Paying players for what they've done instead of what they're going to do is bad business. As players age, their performance erodes instead of improving. Also, I don't think you understand what "bargain" means. 155 million is above market value in both years and AAV for a player of Lester's stature. I find it quite funny how you defend this signing yet complain loudly about the Porcello one, which is actually below market-rate in years. This is why I say you don't understand baseball economics. I don't mean it as an insult. You just don't.

 

Besides Porcello, there are currently 3 other pitchers who will be making $20 mil in 2016. The 3 are Matt Cain, CJ Wilson, and Jered Weaver, who were all paid based on their past performance. All were given contracts that will take them into their early to mid 30s.

 

Matt Cain - After having an ERA 2.79 and a WAR of 3.8 in 2012, he was given a $127.5/5 yr deal. In 2013, he had an ERA of 4.00 and a WAR of 1.7. In 2014, he had an ERA of 4.18 and a WAR of 0.0. He has yet to pitch in 2015.

 

CJ Wilson - After having an ERA of 2.94 and a WAR of 4.7 in 2011, he was given a $77.5/5 yr deal. Granted, not as much as Porcello's but that was also 4 years ago. In 2012, 13, and 14, he had ERAs of 3.83, 3.89, and 4.51 and WARS of 2.5, 3.5, and 0.9, respectively.

 

Jered Weaver - After having an ERA of 2.41 and a WAR of 5.9 in 2011, he was given a $85/5 yr deal. In the following 3 years, he had ERAs of 2.81, 3.27, and 3.59 with WARs of 3.3, 2.6, and 1.8. In a very small sample this year, his ERA is 6.29 and his WAR is -0.3.

 

Some of those numbers are not bad, but the decline in very obvious. Out of the 4 pitchers making roughly the same amount next year, who is likely to have the best season? My money is on Porcello.

[Northern Star]

I only found out recently why some of you are calling Bucholz Laptop. I thought it was because he folds easily.

[Kimmi]

Porcello wouldn't be even a concern to me. Also, if he keeps posting those numbers (his track record 4.3 ERA/2.5 WAR) I do not see teams in a rush to lock him out, do you?.

 

As I said, my strategy for #3-5 would be signing a bunch of low risk (cheap)/high reward pitchers rounding them with some prospects from the farm and/or arms via trades.

 

My real concern would be trying to sign a true No1 and a true No2 like Lester and Shields type, like last offseason.

 

 

I'm not sure how you are establishing your rankings for #1s and #2s. Porcello was tied for 38th in WAR. He was 35th in ERA. He was 24th in innings pitched. If there are 150 starting pitchers, then I would consider the top 30 to be #1s, the next 30 to be #2s, and so on. Porcello was a #2 pitcher last year.

 

Perhaps your standards are too high for what a #1 and #2 pitcher are. There just aren't as many of those pitchers in baseball as you think there are. By your standards, there aren't that many teams that have a #1 and a #2 pitcher on their staffs.

[Northern Star]

Besides Porcello, there are currently 3 other pitchers who will be making $20 mil in 2016. The 3 are Matt Cain, CJ Wilson, and Jered Weaver, who were all paid based on their past performance. All were given contracts that will take them into their early to mid 30s.

 

Matt Cain - After having an ERA 2.79 and a WAR of 3.8 in 2012, he was given a $127.5/5 yr deal. In 2013, he had an ERA of 4.00 and a WAR of 1.7. In 2014, he had an ERA of 4.18 and a WAR of 0.0. He has yet to pitch in 2015.

 

CJ Wilson - After having an ERA of 2.94 and a WAR of 4.7 in 2011, he was given a $77.5/5 yr deal. Granted, not as much as Porcello's but that was also 4 years ago. In 2012, 13, and 14, he had ERAs of 3.83, 3.89, and 4.51 and WARS of 2.5, 3.5, and 0.9, respectively.

 

Jered Weaver - After having an ERA of 2.41 and a WAR of 5.9 in 2011, he was given a $85/5 yr deal. In the following 3 years, he had ERAs of 2.81, 3.27, and 3.59 with WARs of 3.3, 2.6, and 1.8. In a very small sample this year, his ERA is 6.29 and his WAR is -0.3.

 

Some of those numbers are not bad, but the decline in very obvious. Out of the 4 pitchers making roughly the same amount next year, who is likely to have the best season? My money is on Porcello.

 

Once you get a long term deal, what are you playing for? You get paid regardless of performance, so there's not much incentive to play well. Especially if your deal is taking you to pretty much the end of your career. This is why I get so frustrated by 100% guaranteed contracts.

[Kimmi]

i only found out recently why some of you are calling bucholz laptop. I thought it was because he folds easily.

 

lol

[Kimmi]

Also, maybe the Sox are banking on Porcello having a lot of upside based on comps of the last 4 pitchers who had 20 plus starts in their age 20 season: Jose Fernandez, Kershaw, King Felix, and Greinke.

[User Name]

Once you get a long term deal, what are you playing for? You get paid regardless of performance, so there's not much incentive to play well. Especially if your deal is taking you to pretty much the end of your career. This is why I get so frustrated by 100% guaranteed contracts.

 

In Porcello's case, another huge payday, which is the point. Think about it slowly. Most of these guys are getting their last shot at a long-term, big-money deal. They are winding down physically and lack motivation. Porcello can be a FA at age 30, and then absolutely get a truly ridiculous long-term deal. If motivation's what you're looking for, then this is another aspect of the deal that makes sense for both sides.

[Palodios]

As players get older, they use the "I want to spend time with my kids" excuse and get lazy in the gym. Porcello isn't even married, as far as I can find -- he has a few years until he starts putting his family first.

[iortiz]

Well, As bell said everything has been said about Porcello. Time to let the numbers talk. Now... What about the rest of the rotation? Seems like Masterson is improving. Miley at this point is a total mystery to me IDK what can we get from him. Buch is a lost cause. I had high hopes on Kelly but I'm not sure anymore.

[Northern Star]

I don't think Bucholz and Masterson are salvageable. Miley: tbd.

[Northern Star]

In Porcello's case, another huge payday, which is the point. Think about it slowly. Most of these guys are getting their last shot at a long-term, big-money deal. They are winding down physically and lack motivation. Porcello can be a FA at age 30, and then absolutely get a truly ridiculous long-term deal. If motivation's what you're looking for, then this is another aspect of the deal that makes sense for both sides.

 

Wasn't talking about Porcello. I was talking about the pitchers that Kimmi mentioned.

[Spudboy]

Besides Porcello, there are currently 3 other pitchers who will be making $20 mil in 2016. The 3 are Matt Cain, CJ Wilson, and Jered Weaver, who were all paid based on their past performance. All were given contracts that will take them into their early to mid 30s.

 

Matt Cain - After having an ERA 2.79 and a WAR of 3.8 in 2012, he was given a $127.5/5 yr deal. In 2013, he had an ERA of 4.00 and a WAR of 1.7. In 2014, he had an ERA of 4.18 and a WAR of 0.0. He has yet to pitch in 2015.

 

CJ Wilson - After having an ERA of 2.94 and a WAR of 4.7 in 2011, he was given a $77.5/5 yr deal. Granted, not as much as Porcello's but that was also 4 years ago. In 2012, 13, and 14, he had ERAs of 3.83, 3.89, and 4.51 and WARS of 2.5, 3.5, and 0.9, respectively.

 

Jered Weaver - After having an ERA of 2.41 and a WAR of 5.9 in 2011, he was given a $85/5 yr deal. In the following 3 years, he had ERAs of 2.81, 3.27, and 3.59 with WARs of 3.3, 2.6, and 1.8. In a very small sample this year, his ERA is 6.29 and his WAR is -0.3.

 

Some of those numbers are not bad, but the decline in very obvious. Out of the 4 pitchers making roughly the same amount next year, who is likely to have the best season? My money is on Porcello.

 

I call ********. No way any of this is true!!!! Apologize to iOrtiz! He said that there were no #2 or #3 making $20. mil.!!!!!

[iortiz]

I don't think Bucholz and Masterson are salvageable. Miley: tbd.

 

Masterson is at 5+ ERA again.

 

We need to do something otherwise this could get out of the hands early.