Sox Acquire Porcello, Miley, and Masterson

[Palodios]

As someone who has had his differences with almost every tenured poster on this board, I would say that it is almost never worth it. Because I'm still here, and they'll continue to still be here, so why not spend more time enjoying the time we spend with fellow Red Sox fans?

[Spudboy]

My point: Fred, UN, you and others all belittle each other. At the end of the day, just stop pointing fingers and act like grownups. Calling someone a whiner is as much of a personal shot as is calling someone a ballwasher. It all kind of sucks.

 

Sometimes you are quick to be defensive. If someone quotes you and asks a question, it's not a reason to be uppity. Just relax and maybe we can all get along better. Fred goes out of his way to rip on Un. He does this way more than UN does. For the good of the board, it just needs to stop.

 

Being childish might make for an amusing day of posting, but it just drives more people away. We're all Sox fans. We have different opinions. Having different opinions doesn't mean one person is right and one person is wrong. The world doesn't work that way.

 

I'm not trying to attack you, I just think this place would be better if we weren't all at each other's throats all the time.

 

In the end, this post won't make a difference and I'm just pissing in the wind.

 

^ This!

[Spudboy]

What MVP and Pals say makes sense.

 

Throughout the history of this board there has been childish behavior. When it was mostly teenagers some of this could be excused as just plain immaturity. But now almost everyone here is an adult. We should all act like adults and accept what others say even if we believe them to be wrong or that they have their head stuck up their asses.

 

I have dumb and unfounded ideas and opinions. I don't mind hearing from others how I may be wrong. That is part of learning and being an adult.

 

Okay. That is all that I will say on this subject. And I hope that MVP does not take another long hiatus as his insight and whit will be missed.

[iortiz]

As someone who has had his differences with almost every tenured poster on this board, I would say that it is almost never worth it. Because I'm still here, and they'll continue to still be here, so why not spend more time enjoying the time we spend with fellow Red Sox fans?

 

I have noticed that some Red Sox fans get angry when somebody points out a player or the FO, regardless they are executing horrible like the Lester thing and other situations and a lot of personal attacks start because of that. I still do not understand this.

 

Seriously, I have seen more brilliant ideas in this board than what I've seen from our FO in the recent years aside the 2013 WS.

 

Hopefully they finally assemble a good pitching staff this year.

Edited December 16, 2014 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

Be like Elsa and let it go...

[Palodios]

I have noticed that some Red Sox fans get angry when somebody points out a player or the FO, regardless they are executing horrible like the Lester thing

 

Honestly, when you guys badmouth this organization, it makes you seem extremely ungrateful. It frustrates many of us, but we let it go.

 

This organization has done a great job. They've won championships. They've made boatloads of money for themselves. They've weathered the storm of a Yankee dynasty. You can say what you will about the teams from 30 years ago, but I firmly believe Ben has done everything he can to make the team competitive, whereas Loopy Larry has done everything he can to put fans in the seats (even if it isn't always about baseball).

 

I'm pissed about Lester. Most of us are. But saying they screwed up is extremely short sighted, especially with these big contracts. We don't have the medical records. We can't see into the future. We don't have professional scouting reports on players and an idea of how their abilities will age.

[seabeachfred]

The question is, who will pay for Scherzer and Shields?

 

Are the Yankees willing to spend near A-Rod money for either guy? The current report I've read is that they will be smart and wait for the big wave of pitchers next year -- they certainly seem like they want to go into rebuild mode for a season-ish.

 

The Dodgers have already signed two pitchers this offseason. The Cubs and White Sox already put their money down. The Angels are already loaded with bad contracts, so are the Phillies.

 

The only teams that make sense here are the Giants, Red Sox, Yankeea, Washington and maybe a dark horse like Toronto/NYM.

 

Unless there is a sea change in the front office's thinking you can kiss Scherzer good bye as far as the Red Sox are concerned. The money he is asking for is prohibitive from what the Red Sox have done lately and they are never going to outbid the Yankees for someone the Yankees want, and I don't consider for a moment that the Yankees aren't lurking out there waiting to snap and offer the guy a humongous contract. That's their history. As far as Shields is concerned, he and his agent are no dummies. They see the market and know that his value has only gone up since the money was handed out to Lester. If the Red Sox think they can get him in a bargain rate, they have been sniffing something bad for them even though I would love to have James on the team---along with Hamels. I just know two things. We won't get both of them, and two, if don't get one of them we will not have the pitching to advance far in the post season next year. At least that's the way I see it.

[seabeachfred]

Actually Fred, from what I've read they're already over the tax threshold for 2015. The Panda/Hanley signings tacked on $41 million.

 

Thanks for the update Bellhorn. My impression was that we were still under it by about $15 million or so. I wonder if we could get the actual count somewhere. Maybe someone out there can crosscheck and see where we actually are in the LT category.

[seabeachfred]

My point: Fred, UN, you and others all belittle each other. At the end of the day, just stop pointing fingers and act like grownups. Calling someone a whiner is as much of a personal shot as is calling someone a ballwasher. It all kind of sucks.

 

Sometimes you are quick to be defensive. If someone quotes you and asks a question, it's not a reason to be uppity. Just relax and maybe we can all get along better. Fred goes out of his way to rip on Un. He does this way more than UN does. For the good of the board, it just needs to stop.

 

Being childish might make for an amusing day of posting, but it just drives more people away. We're all Sox fans. We have different opinions. Having different opinions doesn't mean one person is right and one person is wrong. The world doesn't work that way.

 

I'm not trying to attack you, I just think this place would be better if we weren't all at each other's throats all the time.

 

In the end, this post won't make a difference and I'm just pissing in the wind.

 

No mvp----this time you are absolutely correct and I have resorted to making some cracks about User of late---mostly at how I believe he always seems to support whatever the FO does. I did, however, suggest to my friend iortiz that he put him on ignore because for whatever reason User irritates him as he did me. On the harmony part, though, you're not pissing in the wind and make good points. Let's play it your way and see if it works. I really would like nothing else but to talk Red Sox baseball and end the pissing contests too. Thanks for the tough love.

[iortiz]

Honestly, when you guys badmouth this organization, it makes you seem extremely ungrateful. It frustrates many of us, but we let it go.

 

This organization has done a great job. They've won championships. They've made boatloads of money for themselves. They've weathered the storm of a Yankee dynasty. You can say what you will about the teams from 30 years ago, but I firmly believe Ben has done everything he can to make the team competitive, whereas Loopy Larry has done everything he can to put fans in the seats (even if it isn't always about baseball).

 

I'm pissed about Lester. Most of us are. But saying they screwed up is extremely short sighted, especially with these big contracts. We don't have the medical records. We can't see into the future. We don't have professional scouting reports on players and an idea of how their abilities will age.

mmmm I do not think that this is about to be grateful or ungrateful, this is about to point out when they s*** the bed or when they do the right things based on how I or anybody here sees the game, that's all. I do not care if they win 3 more WS (which would be great) but if I see something wrong, I will point it out, on the other hand, if they do something right I will point it out as well.

 

As for the current offseason, IMO They haven't improved the pitching staff at all, just the opposite. Sure, there's still time, and all we are doing is exploring the possibilities and their probable implications, that's all.

Edited December 16, 2014 by iortiz

[Spudboy]

Hey Fred. What level of school did you teach History in?

[iortiz]

Thanks for the update Bellhorn. My impression was that we were still under it by about $15 million or so. I wonder if we could get the actual count somewhere. Maybe someone out there can crosscheck and see where we actually are in the LT category.

 

As it is, at BBR estimate 177 M. If we go after Shields or Scherzer we will be over the LT.

[Bellhorn04]

As it is, at BBR estimate 177 M. If we go after Shields or Scherzer we will be over the LT.

 

But the 177 M isn't the figure used for luxury tax purposes. One of the posters on BDC has been tracking the luxury tax number and says that figure projects to be about 197 M. I'll put up the numbers when I get a chance.

[Spudboy]

mmmm I do not think that this is about to be grateful or ungrateful, this is about to point out when they s*** the bed or when they do the right things based on how I or anybody here sees the game, that's all. I do not care if they win 3 more WS (which would be great) but if I see something wrong, I will point it out, on the other hand, if they do something right I will point it out as well.

As for the current offseason, IMO They haven't improved the pitching staff at all, just the opposite. Sure, there's still time, and all we are doing is exploring the possibilities and their probable implications, that's all.

 

I have to respectfully disagree with you here. What staff are you comparing the current staff to? If it is the rotation that started the 2014 season then you may be on point. There is no Lester or Lackey to give you 30+ starts apiece and many quality starts. Peavey was predictable in that he would not dominate and only give you a solid 4 or maybe 5 decent innings to stay in the game. Dooby was a lunkhead and did not pitch to his potential. Buch did not sniff his 1st half 2013 level. Although he did have a couple of good games very late in the year.

 

If you are comparing the current rotation with the crap that the Sox threw out there after the deadline I'd say that you are wrong. Let's say Buch remains the same is nothing but a mediocre #5 at best. Kelly is young and has good stuff. He also appears to have a strong competitive spirit. He's no worse than a decent #4 if he can stay healthy and throw anywhere near 180-200 innings.

 

Now the Sox have added three quality arms to the mix.

 

Masterson can provide league average numbers if healthy and could be as much as a good #3. Porcello is full of upside and loves to compete. He too, is a good #3. I don't know much about Smiley but he seems to be a legitimate mid-rotation starter as well.

 

Overall I believe the FO has done a pretty good job of retooling an inept rotation with what should be quality and experienced arms.

 

And how can we ignore that the FO has not gone "dumpster diving" ( love that phrase a700! ). After all, they could have snatched up the glorious Brad Penny or the like.

 

I wish there were more cost effective top tier arms available to go after but we will have to wait until the 2015 off season I'm afraid.

 

I like that the FO has not used too many valuable chips to land some decent arms. And those arms are not on big contracts, either.

 

A big splash pitching acquisition would be nice and probably enhance the chances that the Sox do go to the playoffs in 2015. Maybe it just is not in the cards for 2015.

[Palodios]

I do not care if they win 3 more WS (which would be great) but if I see something wrong, I will point it out, on the other hand, if they do something right I will point it out as well.

 

When a team is successful, there are usually good reasons why. You may not agree with the moves when they are made, but these guys know what they're doing. They have all sorts of experts involved -- mathematicians, scouts with great eyes, medical teams, PR masters. We also don't even notice these things until years later -- look at Brock Holt for example.

 

You may not agree with this team's pitching acquisitions, but there are several reasons why they picked up these guys. These guys are between the ages of 26-28, right about the time pitchers hit their prime. Miley and Porcello haven't been on the DL in their entire careers and have been 200 IP guys every single year. Masterson was a 200 IP guy until this year. All three are groundball pitchers, and that is important for two reasons. Fenway eats up flyball pitchers. These guys also had terrible defenses behind them, and stand to improve with a solid defense. I would not be surprised to see a #2 and #3 emerge out of this group, with very little money and very few trade chips used here.

[Spudboy]

When a team is successful, there are usually good reasons why. You may not agree with the moves when they are made, but these guys know what they're doing. They have all sorts of experts involved -- mathematicians, scouts with great eyes, medical teams, PR masters. We also don't even notice these things until years later -- look at Brock Holt for example.

 

You may not agree with this team's pitching acquisitions, but there are several reasons why they picked up these guys. These guys are between the ages of 26-28, right about the time pitchers hit their prime. Miley and Porcello haven't been on the DL in their entire careers and have been 200 IP guys every single year. Masterson was a 200 IP guy until this year. All three are groundball pitchers, and that is important for two reasons. Fenway eats up flyball pitchers. These guys also had terrible defenses behind them, and stand to improve with a solid defense. I would not be surprised to see a #2 and #3 emerge out of this group, with very little money and very few trade chips used here.

 

Very good point among several good points. Those young arms will be good for several years if they remain healthy. And they are cheap. At least for now.

[Bellhorn04]

Here is the current 2015 projected payroll for luxury tax purposes. Some of the salary figures are different from what you find on B-R or Cot's, because these are the AAV-Average Annual Values. Also note the extra costs added on at the end.

 

$22M H. Ramirez

$19M Sandoval

$16M Napoli

$16M Ortiz

$13.75M Pedroia

$13M Victorino

$10.25M Castillo

$9.5M Masterson

$9M Uehara

$7.5M Buchholz

$6.2M Craig

$4.75M Mujica

The 12 total: ~$148M

4 Arbs with MLBTR projected 2015 salary:

$12.2M Rick Porcello

$4.3 Wade Miley

$2.0M Tazawa

$1.9M Nava

I'll assume about $20M combined.

Total: ~$168M for these 16 players, not counting pre-arb players.

The 24 Non Arb Players Currently on the 40 Man Roster:

Bogaerts, Kelly, Betts, Holt, Vazquez, Bradley, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes, Cecchini, Escobar, Wright, Hembree, Middlebrooks Brentz, Britton, Butler, Coyle, Swihart, E Rodriguez, Layne, T Shaw, Weeks, Gustave

If we do not sign any more free agents, these 24 players should cost about $15M.

Total in salaries: ~$183M

Add: $10.1M for Player Benefits & $3.9M Dodger payment.

TOTAL: ~$197M

[iortiz]

I have to respectfully disagree with you here. What staff are you comparing the current staff to? If it is the rotation that started the 2014 season then you may be on point. There is no Lester or Lackey to give you 30+ starts apiece and many quality starts. Peavey was predictable in that he would not dominate and only give you a solid 4 or maybe 5 decent innings to stay in the game. Dooby was a lunkhead and did not pitch to his potential. Buch did not sniff his 1st half 2013 level. Although he did have a couple of good games very late in the year.

 

If you are comparing the current rotation with the crap that the Sox threw out there after the deadline I'd say that you are wrong. Let's say Buch remains the same is nothing but a mediocre #5 at best. Kelly is young and has good stuff. He also appears to have a strong competitive spirit. He's no worse than a decent #4 if he can stay healthy and throw anywhere near 180-200 innings.

 

Now the Sox have added three quality arms to the mix.

 

Masterson can provide league average numbers if healthy and could be as much as a good #3. Porcello is full of upside and loves to compete. He too, is a good #3. I don't know much about Smiley but he seems to be a legitimate mid-rotation starter as well.

 

Overall I believe the FO has done a pretty good job of retooling an inept rotation with what should be quality and experienced arms.

 

And how can we ignore that the FO has not gone "dumpster diving" ( love that phrase a700! ). After all, they could have snatched up the glorious Brad Penny or the like.

 

I wish there were more cost effective top tier arms available to go after but we will have to wait until the 2015 off season I'm afraid.

 

I like that the FO has not used too many valuable chips to land some decent arms. And those arms are not on big contracts, either.

 

A big splash pitching acquisition would be nice and probably enhance the chances that the Sox do go to the playoffs in 2015. Maybe it just is not in the cards for 2015.

 

Yeah, I was comparing the 2014 starting rotation with the current one. Let's put it this way, If you give Lackey and Lester for this combo, I'll do it in a heartbeat. As I said, Offseason hasn't finished, but as it is we have two big black holes in the rotation right now and a sea of ?s and ifs.

 

I think I said it before as well, if they are thinking to use the current staff to round the team around 2 No1 SPs, I'll put all my money on the Red Sox, and I'll be the first one to celebrate the performance of our FO this offseason.

 

I need to see the finished product to make my last call about the team though.

[iortiz]

But the 177 M isn't the figure used for luxury tax purposes. One of the posters on BDC has been tracking the luxury tax number and says that figure projects to be about 197 M. I'll put up the numbers when I get a chance.

 

Oh my bad! Well if that is the case, an extra 25-30 won't hurt us more LOL

Edited December 16, 2014 by iortiz

[sk7326]

One of the interesting ideas is looking at some of the projections that are actually out there ... if you look at Steamer (not all of the other projections are available on Fangraphs yet) and put the rotations as is side by side from the rotation which started the 2014 season (we will leave #5 starter out for now) ... to give an idea of the projection range, Kershaw is high at 4.8 WAR (so the data as you'd expect from forecasts is pretty smooth).

 

(http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&players=0)

 

Last Year

 

Lester: 3.6

Lackey: 2.5

Peavy: 1.0

Buchholz: 2.1

TOTAL: 9.2

 

Right This Second:

Porcello: 3.1

Miley: 2.0

Buchholz: 2.1

Masterson: 2.0

TOTAL: 9.2

 

Obviously projections are what they are - so I'm not going to go hog wild here. But there is some decent evidence that the Red Sox have at least held steady rotation wise, but more by improving the middle-back of the rotation than the front. Now where you miss a restaurant quality #1 is in October ... but the bet that this is good enough for now (so we can fish for a stud when the deadline hits) is a reasonable one.

[cp176]

All good stuff. I still liked what I saw from Kelly last year. Another fairly young guy. I think he will battle for one of those spots in the starting rotation.

[iortiz]

When a team is successful, there are usually good reasons why. You may not agree with the moves when they are made, but these guys know what they're doing. They have all sorts of experts involved -- mathematicians, scouts with great eyes, medical teams, PR masters. We also don't even notice these things until years later -- look at Brock Holt for example.

 

You may not agree with this team's pitching acquisitions, but there are several reasons why they picked up these guys. These guys are between the ages of 26-28, right about the time pitchers hit their prime. Miley and Porcello haven't been on the DL in their entire careers and have been 200 IP guys every single year. Masterson was a 200 IP guy until this year. All three are groundball pitchers, and that is important for two reasons. Fenway eats up flyball pitchers. These guys also had terrible defenses behind them, and stand to improve with a solid defense. I would not be surprised to see a #2 and #3 emerge out of this group, with very little money and very few trade chips used here.

 

As a fan, even with successful/big/historic teams you can emit an opinion when somthing don't like you regardless the sport, like the Lester thing; this is pretty much my point. Also, I do not think that this is rocket science, IMO a decent MBA person with some kind of knowladge of the game could run this, sorry but I do not see a big deal here. As I said, I've seen here better ideas than some showed and executed by our FO in the recent years.

 

Again, IF they go like this, this team will likely suck, no matter how many experts they have... IMO.

[seabeachfred]

Hey Fred. What level of school did you teach History in?

 

High School----35 years.

[mvp 78]

No mvp----this time you are absolutely correct and I have resorted to making some cracks about User of late---mostly at how I believe he always seems to support whatever the FO does. I did, however, suggest to my friend iortiz that he put him on ignore because for whatever reason User irritates him as he did me. On the harmony part, though, you're not pissing in the wind and make good points. Let's play it your way and see if it works. I really would like nothing else but to talk Red Sox baseball and end the pissing contests too. Thanks for the tough love.

Great. I'll hold you to this.

[Palodios]

IMO a decent MBA person with some kind of knowladge of the game could run this, sorry but I do not see a big deal here. As I said, I've seen here better ideas than some showed and executed by our FO in the recent years.

 

Just to be clear, you do realize that John Henry is a self-made billionaire, right?

[iortiz]

Just to be clear, you do realize that John Henry is a self-made billionaire, right?

 

yeah, why?

[User Name]

When a team is successful, there are usually good reasons why. You may not agree with the moves when they are made, but these guys know what they're doing. They have all sorts of experts involved -- mathematicians, scouts with great eyes, medical teams, PR masters. We also don't even notice these things until years later -- look at Brock Holt for example.

 

You may not agree with this team's pitching acquisitions, but there are several reasons why they picked up these guys. These guys are between the ages of 26-28, right about the time pitchers hit their prime. Miley and Porcello haven't been on the DL in their entire careers and have been 200 IP guys every single year. Masterson was a 200 IP guy until this year. All three are groundball pitchers, and that is important for two reasons. Fenway eats up flyball pitchers. These guys also had terrible defenses behind them, and stand to improve with a solid defense. I would not be surprised to see a #2 and #3 emerge out of this group, with very little money and very few trade chips used here.

 

I read somewhere that the strike zone has actually lowered by a couple of inches over the last few years, and the Red Sox are targeting pitchers who work in that area of the strike zone, so there is a method to their madness.

[Palodios]

yeah, why?

 

You are saying that all it takes is knowledge of the game, and business acumen to succeed as a MLB owner/manager. John Henry is a billionaire, far more successful than 99% of most people with MBA's. He hired people around him that he believes will help this team win games and make money. If a self-made billionaire has only had mixed success, why do you believe arm-chair GMs with MBAs are going to be any more successful?

[User Name]

Pal, if you were a girl, i would date you.

[Palodios]

Pal, if you were a girl, i would date you.

 

Your new title is exceptional, by the way.