2014 Offseason Thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Spud, this kid sounds like a generational talent

[Spudboy]

Spud, this kid sounds like a generational talent

 

Well in that case most big market teams will be going balls to the walls for this kid. Even all the other teams have a crack at him.

 

I guess I have not read as much about him as I should.

 

Overall, I'm not a proponent of chasing every new beaner-de jour. The fact that he is from Cuba has me suspecting two things about him.

 

One, I bet no team has seen anywhere near enough of him playing the game to make an accurate assessment. The Sox, as an example, had not seen Castillo play much over the 2 years prior to his signing.

 

Two, he is probably very raw in skill development. He comes from a desperately poor country where facilities are few. At 19 he probably has not played much high level ball.

I bet he is over rated.

[crazydiamond]

If Yankees are really interested in signing him, I can't see him becoming anything other than an improvement to that horrific middle infield.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Yankees are really interested in signing him, I can't see him becoming anything other than an improvement to that horrific middle infield.

 

Not sure you can really call it horrific. If anything, it is going to be a massive defensive improvement over last year. No idea what kind of offense we'll get with Drew having a full preseason and Gregorius moving to a good park for lefties. It certainly has the potential to be an offensive black hole, but far from a sure thing

[Kimmi]

Wade Miley has signed a 3 year, $19.25 mil extension, thus avoiding arbitration.

[Spudboy]

Wade Miley has signed a 3 year, $19.25 mil extension, thus avoiding arbitration.

 

Seems reasonable. Especially if he does not suck.

 

And I do not believe that he will suck.

 

That job belongs to laptop.

[a700hitter]

Seems reasonable. Especially if he does not suck.

 

And I do not believe that he will suck.

 

That job belongs to laptop.

 

He doesn't throw hard and he doesn't have good secondary pitches. He will have to be very fine to be successful.

[mvp 78]

Who is laptop?

[User Name]

Who is laptop?

 

Clay Buchholz, who got caught stealing some laptops when he was in HS i believe.

[User Name]

He doesn't throw hard and he doesn't have good secondary pitches. He will have to be very fine to be successful.

 

Wade Miley sits 91-93, which is above-average velocity for lefty, and his best secondary pitch, which is a changeup, grades as plus from both a scouting and analytical perspective. Read a scouting report for once.

[mvp 78]

Clay Buchholz, who got caught stealing some laptops when he was in HS i believe.

 

That's dumb.

[jacksonianmarch]

Miley has gotten worse each seasons he has pitched in the majors. His HR rate has risen as has his walk rate in each season. The only good thing is he has seen his K rate jump. Going along with that is his WHIP, rising from 1.18 to 1.32 and last yr at 1.40. This guy walks a fair amount, gives up the longball regularly and gets hit around pretty good. I honestly don't see the draw aside from 200IP.

[a700hitter]

I like it-- laptop.

[a700hitter]

Miley has gotten worse each seasons he has pitched in the majors. His HR rate has risen as has his walk rate in each season. The only good thing is he has seen his K rate jump. Going along with that is his WHIP, rising from 1.18 to 1.32 and last yr at 1.40. This guy walks a fair amount, gives up the longball regularly and gets hit around pretty good. I honestly don't see the draw aside from 200IP.

Plus, he will not get an easy out each time around the lineup. We gave up a better pitcher than him in Arroyo after 2005.

[User Name]

Miley has gotten worse each seasons he has pitched in the majors. His HR rate has risen as has his walk rate in each season. The only good thing is he has seen his K rate jump. Going along with that is his WHIP, rising from 1.18 to 1.32 and last yr at 1.40. This guy walks a fair amount, gives up the longball regularly and gets hit around pretty good. I honestly don't see the draw aside from 200IP.

 

The longball is a legitimate problem. But a GB pitcher playing behind a s***** D in a park that accentuates his weaknesses is a recipe for disaster. I noticed you conveniently leave out his FIP and xFIP, which are much higher on his body of work. There's plenty of room for improvement moving to a better park (yes, Fenway is a better park than Chase in this particular case) with better D, and in a timeframe where offense in the AL just ain't what it used to be.

[iortiz]

I do not see in Miley anything better than a 4.0 ERA pitcher going forward. In fact I do not see any of this staff below 4.0 with at least 190 IP. Edited February 6, 2015 by iortiz

[sk7326]

I do not see in Miley anything better than a 4.0 ERA pitcher going forward. In fact I do not see any of this staff below 4.0 with at least 190 IP.

 

Miley is an excellent bet to deliver 200 average innings which is valuable in itself.

[cp176]

Miley must think that he got a great deal. The Red Sox think that they got a great deal. Something troubles me about that. I'm not sure I know what it is. 200 innings is important for sure. At what level? If it works out the way the Red Sox hope the deal works out it will turn out to be a very good deal. He is under contract and that is good I hope. Unlike Kelly, he isn't predicting a Cy Young year anytime soon either.

[iortiz]

Miley is an excellent bet to deliver 200 average innings which is valuable in itself.

 

Yup, but I meant the combination. 4.0- AND 200 IP. In other words, if he posts 200 IP I do not see him below 4.0. Probably Kelly posts something below 4.0 but I do not see him posting it at 190+ IP.

[a700hitter]

Miley is an excellent bet to deliver 200 average innings which is valuable in itself.

An argument that a bitter Mike Torrez made when cut by the Mets at a time when he had a 5+ ERA. "Where are they going to get someone to pitch 200 innings?" he asked.

[iortiz]

An argument that a bitter Mike Torrez made when cut by the Mets at a time when he had a 5+ ERA. "Where are they going to get someone to pitch 200 innings?" he asked.

 

Exactly.

 

I do not see Miley, Porcello, Kelly, Buch and Masterson giving us 1000 IP AND posting an average ERA below 4.

Edited February 6, 2015 by iortiz

[mvp 78]

Only 34 pitchers threw 200 innings last year. Of course they won't get to 1000 IP. That's about 1 per team.

 

Only 66 pitchers had an ERA under 4. Could the staff average 4.00? Maybe? I bet 3 guys are under 4.00 and 2 are over.

[iortiz]

Fair enough but still and as I said, I do not see anybody in our rotation posting an ERA below 4.0 AND 190 IP+.

[Bellhorn04]

Fair enough but still and as I said, I do not see anybody in our rotation posting an ERA below 4.0 AND 190 IP+.

 

That's because you don't like Porcello.

[iortiz]

That's because you don't like Porcello.

 

haha yup. While the ALE pitching is "mediocre" the ALE Lups will destroy him.

[iortiz]

Only 34 pitchers threw 200 innings last year. Of course they won't get to 1000 IP. That's about 1 per team.

 

Only 66 pitchers had an ERA under 4. Could the staff average 4.00? Maybe? I bet 3 guys are under 4.00 and 2 are over.

3 of the current staff under 4 AND at least 200 IP? If so... I propose u a bet, 100 Bucks, what do u say?

[Bellhorn04]

haha yup. While the ALE pitching is "mediocre" the ALE Lups will destroy him.

 

Let's have a reality check on the ALE - it ain't what it used to be.

 

Last year the other 4 teams in the ALE averaged 4.13 runs per game. League average was 4.18.

[jd98]

3 of the current staff under 4 AND at least 200 IP? If so... I propose u a bet, 100 Bucks, what do u say?

 

Nobody would be dumb enough to take that bet. No team in baseball last year had 3 such pitchers. Only 2 AL teams had 2 such pitchers. You should lower your IP requirement to 180 or the 'qualifying' standard of 162 if you want to have a remotely realistic betting option.

 

If there was an actual betting line on each of the Sox SP over/under 4.00 ERA, with -110 odds, I'd bet 1 unit on Porcello under and Miley over, and 3 units on Kelly and Masterson over, and not touch Buchholz.

[iortiz]

Let's have a reality check on the ALE - it ain't what it used to be.

 

Last year the other 4 teams in the ALE averaged 4.13 runs per game. League average was 4.18.

 

This year I see strong Lups in NY and TOR. In BAL while some players are not anymore, it is still pretty dangerous. TB is the weakest but still could make some damage vs this mediocre rotation.

[iortiz]

Nobody would be dumb enough to take that bet. No team in baseball last year had 3 such pitchers. Only 2 AL teams had 2 such pitchers. You should lower your IP requirement to 180 or the 'qualifying' standard of 162 if you want to have a remotely realistic betting option.

 

If there was an actual betting line on each of the Sox SP over/under 4.00 ERA, with -110 odds, I'd bet 1 unit on Porcello under and Miley over, and 3 units on Kelly and Masterson over, and not touch Buchholz.

Oks. I'm willing to bet at 170 IP. 3 of the current rotation with at least 170 IP and below 4.