2014 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

Here's a question. What makes a good closer? Is it something you can learn or is it a trait that a person just has? If a player closes in the minors, and thrives on the pressure there, will they be a good MLB closer, assuming they have the talent and health?

[iortiz]

Here's a question. What makes a good closer? Is it something you can learn or is it a trait that a person just has? If a player closes in the minors, and thrives on the pressure there, will they be a good MLB closer, assuming they have the talent and health?

 

Well IMO only a handful can close with consistency and durability because you do not only need good stuff but temper and balls as well. A lot of pressure is out there when the last inning comes around specially against tough line ups and close games. IMO closers are the master pieces in rosters, since they guarantee a win if you are winning after 8 innings, and could make the difference when you want to win it all... look at Koji and Pap, but that's me .

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

In 2012, Koji had a 1.75 ERA, and a .065 WHIP. You make it seem like his 2013 is vastly different from that year.

Vastly different because it was 36 innings in 2012. Doing it over a ful season is quite different. Seriously, what is your point? That it was just a ru of the mill season for Koji? It wasn't. Again, yes he was capable of having the season. He did it. It wasn't the result of Angels in the OF. It was a once in a career year for him and probably a pipe dream for closers for the next 10 or 20 years. I think you denigrate the magnificence of his 2013 by trying to prove that he always pitches at that level. He never has had that kind of seasonbefore and at age 40, I doubt that he will have another like it.

[Palodios]

I think you denigrate the magnificence of his 2013 by trying to prove that he always pitches at that level. He never has had that kind of seasonbefore and at age 40, I doubt that he will have another like it.

 

You misunderstand. I am not lowering down his prime season. I am making the argument that his career comes close to matching the excellence of an all time great year.

[Spudboy]

Yawn

[a700hitter]

You misunderstand. I am not lowering down his prime season. I am making the argument that his career comes close to matching the excellence of an all time great year.

First of all, his career numbers don't come close to 2013. And what is your purpose in trying to make this failing point? Edited January 27, 2015 by a700hitter

[seabeachfred]

We do know. Papelbon has not put up numbers anywhere like Koji's 2013 recently.

 

Ben inquires on lots of players, but doesn't always make the move. They probably only had the money for one of Pap/Peavy, and I believe they made the right move. Otherwise we may have seen more of Doubront as a starter, and no one wanted that.

 

There ought not to be any argument on that score Pal. Koji was heads and shoulders above Pap in 2013, and I really have some doubts that if we had Papebon in his place we would have won either the AL Pennant or the World Series. As for that trade in 2013, I would rather have had Peavy-Koji on the team rather than Dooby-Paps because Jake was a much more effective pitcher and a lot more experienced that the under achieving Felix.

[seabeachfred]

Yawn

 

I'm reading some good exchanges by our friends on this topic and I've given a blurb or two of my own. However, the way I see is apples vs oranges. To wit, Papelbon was a killer for us and helped us win the 2007 World Series; Koji Iwahara was the prince of tides for us in 2013 and helped us win another title. I feel from my vantage point that it is silly to compare them since they both won titles for us. Jonathan was great for us in his time, Koji great for us in his. Personally, I'd like to salute both of them since they helped win us title---and to me that's the bottom line.

[Kimmi]

And no specific poster was signaled. He's just trying to stir the pot. Good response though.

 

 

Thank you.

 

I'm not sure why a few of the posters don't seem to like you. LOL

[Kimmi]

If the stats were never wrong as a predictor of future performance, GMs would never make bad moves. Stats are interesting and fun and there is a place for them when debating relative past performances, but they and any other method are very imperfect at projecting future performance.

 

 

I don't believe anyone has said that the stats were never wrong as a predictor of future performance. Some stats are better predictive stats while others are better descriptive stats. There are also diagnostic stats. FOs have analytic teams that have stats that the public is not privy to, well beyond what we have access to at Fangraphs, etc.

 

Stats are not foolproof when it comes to predicting future performance. but I would venture to say that they are no worse in their predictive value than scouting is. And as we all agree, a cominbation of both is the best approach.

[Kimmi]

and that is how a hitter performs with RISP. If this item was kept as a yearly file by teams I believe that there might be more success rung up my teams. I have always believed that there are players who seem to rally when the chips are down and those who seem to simply melt away. Teams have to score to win....someone needs to drive in those runs and that's one reason I will never be one to dismisses RBI's. Some players seem to be able to drive them in, and some do not.

 

 

Are you saying that some players are "clutch"?

[Kimmi]

Monbouquette -

 

I am still quite puzzled as to how this whole sabermetrics issue is still being debated, discussed, and beaten to death. No one on the forum has discounted the value of using all aspects of evaluation. Is it really that much of a big deal to some of you how much value is placed on each particular method of evaluation. Is this being done simply for the sake of arguing? Is there another topic here if you dig a little deeper or what? Seriously - It just makes me wonder if there are people posting here that never really played the game. You can still be an avid fan - that's ok. I think we all get to believe what we want to believe.

 

Because it's fun? Isn't that what a baseball forum is for? To debate and discuss topics such as these?

 

I'm not arguing just for the sake of arguing. I truly enjoy having these kinds of discussions.

[a700hitter]

I don't believe anyone has said that the stats were never wrong as a predictor of future performance. Some stats are better predictive stats while others are better descriptive stats. There are also diagnostic stats. FOs have analytic teams that have stats that the public is not privy to, well beyond what we have access to at Fangraphs, etc.

 

Stats are not foolproof when it comes to predicting future performance. but I would venture to say that they are no worse in their predictive value than scouting is. And as we all agree, a cominbation of both is the best approach.

Is there a stat on the accuracy of your "venturing"?

[Kimmi]

Thing is that at the time you already had 6 Y of sample size when the Phyllis made the offer... the offer was based on a decent sample size, and it told them (Phyllis) 2 things: Durability and consistency. In the end... Papelbon has performed as expected for the Phillies thus far. He has earned his pay check.

 

 

Papelbon has not earned his paycheck thus far for the Phillies. Closers, and relievers in general, are just not worth that much.

[cp176]

Because it's fun? Isn't that what a baseball forum is for? To debate and discuss topics such as these?

 

I'm not arguing just for the sake of arguing. I truly enjoy having these kinds of discussions.

 

good - it's all good

[cp176]

Thank you.

 

I'm not sure why a few of the posters don't seem to like you. LOL

 

 

Oh man - that's it i'll let it go.

[a700hitter]

Papelbon has not earned his paycheck thus far for the Phillies. Closers, and relievers in general, are just not worth that much.

He has performed pretty close to his career norms with the Phillies. I would think that is what they were hoping for when they signed him. It would have been unreasonable for the Phillies to expect more from an aging pitcher. Whether the Phillies overpaid for those career norms is a different issue. If that is the case, Papelbon really couldn't have done anything beyond his career norms to earn the paycheck.

[mvp 78]

@RedSox: #RedSox today acquired LHP Robbie Ross Jr. from the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP Anthony Ranaudo.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier: Ross is 13-8, 3.98 ERA in 150 big league gms (12 starts). Similar platoon splits in big leagues (.271/.343/.368 vs RHH, .282/344/426 vs LHH)

[a700hitter]

I got excited for a minute thinking it was Tyson Ross. Another highly touted prospect falls by the wayside.

[Palodios]

I don't understand this one. Sure, the Red Sox are low on lefthanders, but Ranaudo looked like someone who could fill in spot starts and give solid #4/5 value. You don't trade that for a middle reliever with less team control.

[Spudboy]

I'm reading some good exchanges by our friends on this topic and I've given a blurb or two of my own. However, the way I see is apples vs oranges. To wit, Papelbon was a killer for us and helped us win the 2007 World Series; Koji Iwahara was the prince of tides for us in 2013 and helped us win another title. I feel from my vantage point that it is silly to compare them since they both won titles for us. Jonathan was great for us in his time, Koji great for us in his. Personally, I'd like to salute both of them since they helped win us title---and to me that's the bottom line.

 

I said Yawn because for several pages people were debating what I see as a moot point and getting nowhere with it.

 

Like stats and clutch, this topic has been beat to death on Talksox.

 

So yawn.

[Bellhorn04]

I said Yawn because for several pages people were debating what I see as a moot point and getting nowhere with it.

 

Like stats and clutch, this topic has been beat to death on Talksox.

 

So yawn.

 

Yep. It's definitely reached the point of Papelyawn now.

[User Name]

Papelyawn. LOL!

[Spudboy]

Thank you.

 

I'm not sure why a few of the posters don't seem to like you. LOL

 

I'm not sure either. I am very good friends with him and he is one of the brightest people I know. And I have four PhD, a Pew Fellow, two Phi Beta Kappa, and two geniuses in my family.

 

Maybe he is a villain because he he has a low threshold for stupidity and ignorance?

 

Sometimes he can be insulting to others. Sometimes he is justified in doing so. Other times, maybe not.

 

Most people like him. That I do know. He is great with kids. My Daughter loves him.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Spudboy

[User Name]

I'm a malcontent is what i am!

[Spudboy]

I'm a malcontent is what i am!

 

And a troll!

[a700hitter]

I'm not sure either. I am very good friends with him and he is one of the brightest people I know. And I have four PhD, a Pew Fellow, two Phi Beta Kappa, and two geniuses in my family.

 

Maybe he is a villain because he he has a low threshold for stupidity and ignorance?

 

Sometimes he can be insulting to others. Sometimes he is justified in doing so. Other times, maybe not.

 

Most people like him. That I do know. He is great with kids. My Daughter loves him.

Rachel Madow is no genius. I don't care is she is your relative.

[Bellhorn04]

We need a new separate thread for people to jibber-jabber about other posters. All you need is a 'cover title' that gets the ball rolling.

 

Like 'Are you an optimistic fan or a pessimistic fan?' Then sit back and watch all hell break loose.

[User Name]

How would that help break the chain of misery?