Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[vjcsmoke]

Cost the Yankees almost $200 million for a guy who plays in a lesser league in Japan. Nobody would pay that much for him except the Yankees, who are that desperate to get back into the playoffs. It's an incredible gamble of my cable TV money (LOL). Yup. I get their YES network.

 

175m to be exact [155m contract + 20m posting fee]. And he doesn't have to be an ace to be an economic win for the Yankees. Why do you think they got guys like Ichiro, Kuroda, and in the past Matsui? The Yankees dominate the Japanese market now and Tanaka guarantees they will be relevant in Japan another 7 years even once Ichiro and Kuroda retire.

 

The marketing benefits alone more than pay for the investment. As long as Tanaka is at least a solid #2-3 pitcher. The Yankees made a no-brainer deal to shore up their starting pitching while also assuring themselves of dominant Japan market-share.

[Bellhorn04]

175m to be exact [155m contract + 20m posting fee]. And he doesn't have to be an ace to be an economic win for the Yankees. Why do you think they got guys like Ichiro, Kuroda, and in the past Matsui? The Yankees dominate the Japanese market now and Tanaka guarantees they will be relevant in Japan another 7 years even once Ichiro and Kuroda retire.

 

The marketing benefits alone more than pay for the investment. As long as Tanaka is at least a solid #2-3 pitcher. The Yankees made a no-brainer deal to shore up their starting pitching while also assuring themselves of dominant Japan market-share.

 

That's the same thing we heard about Dice-K. What are the final numbers on the Dice-K marketing benefits?

[sk7326]

That's the same thing we heard about Dice-K. What are the final numbers on the Dice-K marketing benefits?

 

I agree, the marketing benefits are silly. But the benefits on the field of a #2 level starter for the Yankees are very high - the value for a win starts to get much higher as you get through the 80s to 90s and higher in win total, and the Yankees bang for win is pretty high. If he is good - which is a gamble, but a gamble on a 25 year old - the money is not a problem. Is it possible for Dice-K to happen here? No doubt, although the scouting reports indicate a much cleaner approach than Matsuzaka had. I think it was a good move for New York, but not a game changer - they might have only been the 4th best team on paper last season in the division, and I'm not really sure the moves they made this offseason gets them in the Top 2. Yanks are too far away for any starter to be enough to close the entire gap.

[User Name]

That's the same thing we heard about Dice-K. What are the final numbers on the Dice-K marketing benefits?

 

None, because they don't have a direct impact on team economics.

[mvp 78]

Sox need to sign players from China and India. Corner the market! Wake up Ben!

[mvp 78]

s***, forgot that the Pirates already got to the India market by signing cricket players.

[SoxSport]

175m to be exact [155m contract + 20m posting fee]. And he doesn't have to be an ace to be an economic win for the Yankees. Why do you think they got guys like Ichiro, Kuroda, and in the past Matsui? The Yankees dominate the Japanese market now and Tanaka guarantees they will be relevant in Japan another 7 years even once Ichiro and Kuroda retire.

 

The marketing benefits alone more than pay for the investment. As long as Tanaka is at least a solid #2-3 pitcher. The Yankees made a no-brainer deal to shore up their starting pitching while also assuring themselves of dominant Japan market-share.

 

Only the Yankees would put up that kind of money for an untested pitcher. Nobody else was close in the bidding. They were desperate for this guy, and put up crazy numbers to get him. Money is no object for the biggest TV market--a big weakness in MLB.

[Bellhorn04]

Only the Yankees would put up that kind of money for an untested pitcher. Nobody else was close in the bidding. They were desperate for this guy, and put up crazy numbers to get him. Money is no object for the biggest TV market--a big weakness in MLB.

 

In what way is it a big weakness though? In the competitive fairness department, all the Yankees spending isn't equating to many championships lately. In the business department, MLB is obviously raking in more money than ever.

[User Name]

Can someone please tell SoxSport to STFU with the tv market ******** since it is clearly, absolutely and unequivocally incorrect?

[mvp 78]

Can someone please tell SoxSport to STFU with the tv market ******** since it is clearly, absolutely and unequivocally incorrect?

 

Plus, the biggest revenue teams haven't been dominating the WS lately. I read that the average payroll of WS entrants has been about 11th place. This is hardly the biggest issue in MLB.

[Palodios]

There have been a lot of the same teams going to the world series lately. The Giants, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies have all been there twice since 2006, and the Cardinals three times. It seems like it comes down to good team management, and pitching... but it seems like it is much easier to be successful in the middle of the pack salary-wise than the bottom.

[a700hitter]

There have been a lot of the same teams going to the world series lately. The Giants, Rangers, Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies have all been there twice since 2006, and the Cardinals three times. It seems like it comes down to good team management, and pitching... but it seems like it is much easier to be successful in the middle of the pack salary-wise than the bottom.

A nice fat payroll helps. It prevents long droughts of losing. It helps make up for mistakes and injuries. In 19 years, the Yankees have missed the playoffs twice. When is the last time that they had a sub .500 season. Clearly, their financial resources have helped them enormously. Does any other team have that kind of record over the last 20 years?

[sk7326]

Well a lot of teams go to the World Series because this is baseball. Football, where not one position can truly dominate (even QB) and physical talent wins the day - there you can legitimately say a team should beat another 10 out of 10 times. In baseball, pitching - and starting pitching - is a consistent equalizer in a short series competition. Because of having King Felix for instance, the Mariners at least one out of five days, usually have the better team on the field against a given opponent. (this is why a bad baseball team is the equivalent of a 5-11 NFL side, which would be bad but not league worst in NFL terms)

 

The Yankees have missed the playoffs twice since the strike (and would have made the playoffs in the strike year), so yeah their run has been amazing - their market and resources help there. And their management has largely been good, large payroll teams have floundered too. The Yankees 1994-2000 stretch was built on old fashioned home grown talent and opportunistic free agent signing (like a great buy-low on Paul O'Neill). But fortunately, it doesn't buy a whole lot to actually win a title. This is what Billy Beane noted about GM'ing - at the end of the day the playoffs are a crapshoot, in a way the GM's/ownership/purse strings work is done when September ends.

 

Is it a weakness of the system? Not really - everybody is getting rich, and every team has a chance to produce a winning product. The Yankees have the ability to produce a winner every year - but then so do the Rays. What Bud manages to leave is an economic system that is probably the best you can do to assure competitive balance in a world where a LOT of revenue is not centralized (unlike the NFL). The economic system plus the impacts of Moneyball have made the sport better. Now, the current CBA does threaten some of that with its changes in draft and international signing - that is worth watching.

Edited January 28, 2014 by sk7326

[reYoukilis]

I think the playoffs can be somewhat of a crapshoot but the Sox, I believe, know how to put the crapshoot in their favor more than the Yanks. How? With a gameplan first. They get a good gameplan, like having good plate discipline, and then get the players and coaches that fit the system. Add depth and a great bullpen to that and you have a system that gets more stressful to the other team the longer the game goes on, and us more confidence.

 

Basically if you work with a system you dont have to get the gods, you can get complimentary players and in the end pay less enabling you to get more depth giving you less holes.

[User Name]

That's not true at all. The Yankees used the "grind pitchers to dust" style of offense way before the Red Sox adopted it. The Yanks' problems in the last few postseasons have been age and pitching, and they still won a WS.

[mvp 78]

That's not true at all. The Yankees used the "grind pitchers to dust" style of offense way before the Red Sox adopted it. The Yanks' problems in the last few postseasons have been age and pitching, and they still won a WS.

 

Which is why Sox/Yanks games are 5 hours long. The Sox have tried to mirror the 90's Yankees since the new ownership took over. Build through the draft, spend money wisely and patience at the plate.

[sk7326]

I think the playoffs can be somewhat of a crapshoot but the Sox, I believe, know how to put the crapshoot in their favor more than the Yanks. How? With a gameplan first. They get a good gameplan, like having good plate discipline, and then get the players and coaches that fit the system. Add depth and a great bullpen to that and you have a system that gets more stressful to the other team the longer the game goes on, and us more confidence.

 

Basically if you work with a system you dont have to get the gods, you can get complimentary players and in the end pay less enabling you to get more depth giving you less holes.

 

To be fair, the Yankees have been "take and rake" the last 20 years - Boston only took leave of it in 2012 (along with everybody getting hurt). What has been interesting with the Yankees since George's death has been the relative penny pinching of his sons - They want the fruits of the labor, but not paying the price. Imagine George Costanza pointing out that the Yankees decided to sign a top shelf complementary set of players while letting their one true superstar walk.

 

What makes the baseball playoffs fascinating is that the skills to win in October are not enough (in themselves) to qualify for October. You can win a World Series with knockout starting pitching and below average offense - the Giants did it twice. It is very difficult to win 95 games with that formula though. Conversely with a deep lineup that can mash #4 starters forever while having decent pitching can win 95 games, but can be beaten in short series. You need both - and the Red Sox were able to do so last season. But the best team in the field has managed to "not win the world series" quite frequently - last year was a case where the best team in the draw won, but 2012, 2011, 2010 that wasn't the case let alone 2006 or 2008.

[reYoukilis]

last year was a case where the best team in the draw won

Maybe but I dont think anyone said that before the season started. I think the Blue Jays were supposed to be the team to beat.

[mvp 78]

Maybe but I dont think anyone said that before the season started. I think the Blue Jays were supposed to be the team to beat.

If you construct a roster solely of former Mets and Marlins, you're gonna have a bad time.

[sk7326]

Maybe but I dont think anyone said that before the season started. I think the Blue Jays were supposed to be the team to beat.

 

True - although any honest evaluation of the division showed 5 teams that were probably 10 games apart talentwise. You look at the rosters and not the hype and you could see Boston was not really that bad, and if only they could avoid the injury bug, they had a chance to be pretty good. Add some extreme right side of the expectation curve work from Lackey, Uehara and Victorino and suddenly, wow. If you seeded the 10 teams in the field when the playoffs started, the Red Sox were no worse than #2 ... and they beat the only legitimate choice for #1 on the way to the title. Sox were the first team since the 2009 Yanks that were the favorite entering the tournament to win the whole thing. Now I will acknowledge you could say the Tigers were the favorite - maybe ... but that's about it.

[reYoukilis]

That's not true at all. The Yankees used the "grind pitchers to dust" style of offense way before the Red Sox adopted it. The Yanks' problems in the last few postseasons have been age and pitching, and they still won a WS.

Thats true. Girardi is a believer in sabremetrics. However I dont know if the manager and FO are on the same page like the Sox's are. Also they havent built up their bullpen which goes hand in hand when all that plate discipline has worn out the starter.

 

Excuse me. The Yanks havent capitalized on that discipline with a good bullpen like we have. In a way good discipline makes up for a crappy bullpen because their starters will outlast the opposing teams.

Edited January 28, 2014 by reYoukilis

[reYoukilis]

True - although any honest evaluation of the division showed 5 teams that were probably 10 games apart talentwise. You look at the rosters and not the hype and you could see Boston was not really that bad, and if only they could avoid the injury bug, they had a chance to be pretty good. Add some extreme right side of the expectation curve work from Lackey, Uehara and Victorino and suddenly, wow. If you seeded the 10 teams in the field when the playoffs started, the Red Sox were no worse than #2 ... and they beat the only legitimate choice for #1 on the way to the title. Sox were the first team since the 2009 Yanks that were the favorite entering the tournament to win the whole thing. Now I will acknowledge you could say the Tigers were the favorite - maybe ... but that's about it.

I myself considered them #3 in the East and said so but at the time but I also saw that they could have been #1 but didnt say. I wish I did, with money. Ill also say Uehara was not as a surprise to me because I live in Texas and liked him very much with the Rangers.

 

Having said that, yes they were good all year long.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees bullpen looks a bit thin at the moment. But to borrow a page from Fred's book, I don't think the dirty conniving bastards are done yet. Who knows, maybe our old pal Papelbon is on their radar, among others.

[sk7326]

Thats true. Girardi is a believer in sabremetrics. However I dont know if the manager and FO are on the same page like the Sox's are. Also they havent built up their bullpen which goes hand in hand when all that plate discipline has worn out the starter.

 

Excuse me. The Yanks havent capitalized on that discipline with a good bullpen like we have. In a way good discipline makes up for a crappy bullpen because their starters will outlast the opposing teams.

 

Well it was even outside of the SABR movement ... the Yanks were doing this in 1994 during the Paul O'Neill-Jimmy Key days. Even more recently, David Robertson would have been the best pitcher in the Red Sox bullpen every season since 2009 outside of 2013 Koji. As MVP noted, the reason modern Sox-Yanks games take forever is that neither team swings at balls.

 

If anything, Girardi has too many anti-sabermetrics tendencies, running an offensive powerhouse (at least in prior years) at times like it's an NL team with overmanaging (too many bunts, willy nilly running).

 

Aged pitching and the injuries have caused the Yankees problems ... in 2009 they placed a massive bet on Sabbathia, which largely worked until father time has started to kick in. Now the rotation is just not restaurant timber without a guy delivering prime-Sabbathia level horsepower. Sabbathia was a true #1 when they signed him, and is not anymore - and with it went their chances to be a dominant short series team. Add the injuries and it has been a decline.

[Bellhorn04]

Sabathia might have a bounceback season, too.

[sk7326]

Sabathia might have a bounceback season, too.

 

He might - but as a 33 year old with a ton of miles on him (7 straight 200 inning seasons) and a sharp drop in strikeout rate ... lot of evidence he might have to reinvent himself as a more command/control guy. It is possible he could be an elite pitcher again, but the odds are not high. Yankees levered so much of their rotation success to him - and his drop in form is a huge issue within that framework.

[User Name]

The Yankees bullpen looks a bit thin at the moment. But to borrow a page from Fred's book, I don't think the dirty conniving bastards are done yet. Who knows, maybe our old pal Papelbon is on their radar, among others.

 

Please let the Yankees get Papelbon. Please please please pretty please.

[mvp 78]

Please let the Yankees get Papelbon. Please please please pretty please.

 

Now that would be drama! How many blown saves would he have at Yankee Stadium?!?

[sk7326]

Papelbon's agent deserves some kind of award ... to get that contract JUST at the time the industry started to realize how stupid an idea that sort of contract is generally.

[reYoukilis]

Papelbon's agent deserves some kind of award ... to get that contract JUST at the time the industry started to realize how stupid an idea that sort of contract is generally.

And didnt Papelbon talk stuff against the Red Sox and then change his tune after we won WS? I guess he wanted the Phils to get smart AFTER he was signed.