Marahiro Tanaka And Sox Starting Rotation.

[sk7326]

From most of the scouting stuff I've read, Tanaka has a wipeout splitter and excellent command. The big risk is his workload at his age - and whether it portends something problematic. The other risk is whether his approach is too "Japanese". Darvish's approach was (even in WBC evidence) very American - pitch to contact, come right at hitters with your best stuff. Daisuke never made that adjustment. Having 6 pitches and nibbling works in Japan - here you are better off throwing your 3 best pitches with location and command and going after guys. Dice-K lacked either the confidence, or was just too stubborn. I lean to the latter since he flashed evidence of the tools, and still does.

 

That said, we know based on the current salaries and the way you expect them to inflate that a B/B+ starter who can provide a lot of bulk is going to be worth 20-25 million. So the dollars for Tanaka, especially given the Yankees balance sheet - is fair. There is a risk, but that describes all deals for pitchers, including ones in this offseason's lot (like Ubaldo Jimenez). The gamble on a 25 year old makes more sense. My guess, just based on reading and not having seen him, is his ceiling is more or less Jon Lester - not one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, but capable of touching that level from time to time, but able to churn out 200 really solid innings without any real drama.

 

Off Topic - Edes' speculation of Lester's extension being 5/120 or so seems totally reasonable based on all the comps ...

[Bellhorn04]

Off Topic - Edes' speculation of Lester's extension being 5/120 or so seems totally reasonable based on all the comps ...

 

Sounds about right. But man, the economics of baseball are rather mind-boggling - how long can the salaries continue to grow at a rate of inflation that is so disproportionate to the general economy?

[sk7326]

Sounds about right. But man, the economics of baseball are rather mind-boggling - how long can the salaries continue to grow at a rate of inflation that is so disproportionate to the general economy?

 

As long as the industry is drowning in cash ... new TV contracts, taxpayer funded gifts (like in Miami), better national TV money. The Rays get like $60M before a ticket is sold. You take this along with teams getting smarter collectively about locking up prime assets, it has been a major major buyer's market the last few years.

 

The high salaries are a good thing - it shows the industry across the board is doing very well. There is a fun media narrative that talks about the game going down the tubes, but that is nearly total bollocks.

[iortiz]

Sounds about right. But man, the economics of baseball are rather mind-boggling - how long can the salaries continue to grow at a rate of inflation that is so disproportionate to the general economy?

 

Until baseball is not a profitable business anymore. Baseball players' salaries are insane even for those who are in the bottom. The floor is 500 K, isn't it?… Hell, Tons of CEOs of great companies doesn't even make the half of that salary.

Edited January 23, 2014 by iortiz

[sk7326]

Until baseball is not a profitable business anymore. Baseball players' salaries are insane even for those who are in the bottom. The floor is 500 K, isn't?… Hell, Tons of CEOs of great companies doesn't even make the half of that salary.

 

Figure in the next CBA it should be closer to $750K. Be glad - everybody is getting rich and everybody is sharing. Everybody has enough money in their pockets to field a competitive team relative to their market realities. Tampa and Oakland are very much proof of this. Can't ask for a lot more than that. The salaries are totally sane from a supply-demand perspective and from an affordability/ROI one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, but the chasing of the mighty dollar is what has priced out the families who used to go to games. Now, you have to go to one game a year for the price of what it used to be to go to 10. Now, the family games are down on the farm. That being said, the owners aren't in the business of making people like them. Theyre in the business of making money and boy are they making it

[iortiz]

Figure in the next CBA it should be closer to $750K. Be glad - everybody is getting rich and everybody is sharing. Everybody has enough money in their pockets to field a competitive team relative to their market realities. Tampa and Oakland are very much proof of this. Can't ask for a lot more than that. The salaries are totally sane from a supply-demand perspective and from an affordability/ROI one.

 

This.

[mvp 78]

Until baseball is not a profitable business anymore. Baseball players' salaries are insane even for those who are in the bottom. The floor is 500 K, isn't it?… Hell, Tons of CEOs of great companies doesn't even make the half of that salary.

What CEO of a "great" company makes less than $250k?

[Spudboy]

Sounds about right. But man, the economics of baseball are rather mind-boggling - how long can the salaries continue to grow at a rate of inflation that is so disproportionate to the general economy?

 

 

 

Probably as long as so many people continue to spend $100.+ per month on cable tv packages, pay $45. to park at a ballgame, pay $140. for two average seats at the game, pay $30.+ for a cap, etc..

 

The distribution of wealth in our lovely economy is atrocious. Yet so many people spend so freely on unnecessary things.

 

Go figure.

[mvp 78]

Probably as long as so many people continue to spend $100.+ per month on cable tv packages, pay $45. to park at a ballgame, pay $140. for two average seats at the game, pay $30.+ for a cap, etc..

 

The distribution of wealth in our lovely economy is atrocious. Yet so many people spend so freely on unnecessary things.

 

Go figure.

Eventually the bottom will fall out. More and more people will switch to streaming tv and cable companies will start to provide pay per channel options. This won't happen in the next year, but it's something MLB will have to deal with. These monstrous tv contracts are probably going to go the way of the dodo.

[iortiz]

What CEO of a "great" company makes less than $250k?

 

Bimbo, FEMSA, CEMEX, SAP, HENKEL, etc...

[sk7326]

Yeah, but the chasing of the mighty dollar is what has priced out the families who used to go to games. Now, you have to go to one game a year for the price of what it used to be to go to 10. Now, the family games are down on the farm. That being said, the owners aren't in the business of making people like them. Theyre in the business of making money and boy are they making it

 

TV/Corporate money is holding up the store more than the gates and whatnot. Also, the local scenarios for each team vary wildly. To Bud's credit (the one good thing he did) he was able to create an economic system which allows the 30 individual companies to operate that way while managing to pay attention to league health as well. It is about as good as you will get for a system that does not have a centralized revenue structure like the NFL.

 

The internet business will continue to grow - long run there could be a crash, but it is not necessarily that likely - the corporate money drives the train largely. The media companies who drive the cable/TV revenue will (sadly) also be driving the internet stuff too.

[Bellhorn04]

Eventually the bottom will fall out. More and more people will switch to streaming tv and cable companies will start to provide pay per channel options. This won't happen in the next year, but it's something MLB will have to deal with. These monstrous tv contracts are probably going to go the way of the dodo.

 

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too. There will be a correction at some point.

[mvp 78]

Bimbo, FEMSA, CEMEX, SAP, HENKEL, etc...

 

SAP AG co-chief executive officers Bill McDermott, left, is getting 8.78 million euros, while Jim Hagemann Snabe's compensation totals 8.25 million euros, SAP said in its annual report today.

[mvp 78]

The Jorba Servitje family. Through their stake in baked goods giant Grupo Bimbo, this family is worth $1.1 billion. Jaime Jorba was one of the four founders of Grupo Bimbo in 1945. Last year Bimbo announced it was buying the bakery business of Sara Lee (NYSE:SLE) for $959 million. (Grupo Bimbo CEO Daniel Servitje Montull & family is a member of the billionaires list, with a net worth of $3.5 billion)

[iortiz]

My bad MVP, I meant some C-level's BASE SALARY aside the CEOs (ex. CIO). Still some CEOs of great small and medium, and even big companies are not making what a low-profile baseball player makes in base salary in a year. Hell, Very, very few people around the world command a 20 K/month base salary. Probably you are one of them hahaha.

[SoxSport]

Cost the Yankees almost $200 million for a guy who plays in a lesser league in Japan. Nobody would pay that much for him except the Yankees, who are that desperate to get back into the playoffs. It's an incredible gamble of my cable TV money (LOL). Yup. I get their YES network.

[User Name]

TV/Corporate money is holding up the store more than the gates and whatnot. Also, the local scenarios for each team vary wildly. To Bud's credit (the one good thing he did) he was able to create an economic system which allows the 30 individual companies to operate that way while managing to pay attention to league health as well. It is about as good as you will get for a system that does not have a centralized revenue structure like the NFL.

 

The internet business will continue to grow - long run there could be a crash, but it is not necessarily that likely - the corporate money drives the train largely. The media companies who drive the cable/TV revenue will (sadly) also be driving the internet stuff too.

 

No it doesn't. Not for MLB teams.

[sk7326]

Fair point - attendance has also gone up consistently ... the industry is doing great despite the economy at large. If anything it is an optimistic sign for future growth.

[sk7326]

Cost the Yankees almost $200 million for a guy who plays in a lesser league in Japan. Nobody would pay that much for him except the Yankees, who are that desperate to get back into the playoffs. It's an incredible gamble of my cable TV money (LOL). Yup. I get their YES network.

 

A dominant stretch in the best baseball league in the world outside of MLB, with at least 4-5 prime years ahead of him. It's a substantial gamble - but not really more than any other free agent pitcher, and with a lot more upside. I am curious how it will work out.

 

I will note that - continuing the chitchat about the health of the industry - is that the wild prices average seeming FA classes are raking in should be the future norm. Teams are getting smarter about locking up the megastuds before free agency hits, and the industry has a ton of money. You end up with a leaner free agent crop, with a lot of money chasing it. The alternative I suppose is the money being held by Judge Smails or donated to his Barclay's Premier League operation ... having it go to the players works a little better.

[sk7326]

Yeah, but the chasing of the mighty dollar is what has priced out the families who used to go to games. Now, you have to go to one game a year for the price of what it used to be to go to 10. Now, the family games are down on the farm. That being said, the owners aren't in the business of making people like them. Theyre in the business of making money and boy are they making it

 

True - although one should decouple the player salaries from the prices a team charges its public. Independent decisions, and the latter one (how much will the market pay) drives the rest of it. A lot of the hate player salaries gets (which has always been a piece of good owner PR they can and do use) is driven by a false connection between the two (Tanaka's contract and the cost to sit at the Stadium for one).

[SoxSport]

Cannot assume Tanaka is an instant ace. He has no ML experience.

 

It is a big gamble for a team desperate to get back into the playoffs.

[jacksonianmarch]

SS, I cannot wait to shovel some crow down your throat. Can't we get this season started?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, this offseason stopped being boring.

[User Name]

SS, I cannot wait to shovel some crow down your throat. Can't we get this season started?

 

There's a pretty legitimate chance you're not going to be able to make good on that threat, and considering your personal track record as of late, i'd suggest holding on to the victory dance pom-poms just a bit longer.

[SoxSport]

Fair point - attendance has also gone up consistently ... the industry is doing great despite the economy at large. If anything it is an optimistic sign for future growth.

 

It really isn't about attendance--it's about cable TV ratings. That's where most of the money comes from--as fans are just beginning to find out. Their cable bills keep rising, and it's because the sports channels are taking about half of it and want more--to fuel all those millionaire salaries.

 

It's pretty outrageous, for example, that the Yankees Yes network and the Texas longhorns TV channel are stuck in my cable package, along with WGN Chicago--WSox and Cubs.Plus the NCAAF channel. Channels I don't watch but have to pay for. This is happening to millions of cable viewers throughout the country. But there is an awareness, now, and there are groups in Washington pushing for an end to this. If it happens, those sports budgets will collapse in a hurry. The cable suppliers aren't happy about it either. They are just passing the cost increases on to the cable subscribers.

[User Name]

For the umpteenth time, that is a load of nonsense.

[SoxSport]

SS, I cannot wait to shovel some crow down your throat. Can't we get this season started?

 

Well... you'd have a slightly better chance of Tanaka being an ace if he was left handed. As it is, you're better off playing blackjack in Vegas.

[iortiz]

For the umpteenth time, that is a load of nonsense.

 

Which part? And why? Please explain us.

[sk7326]

It really isn't about attendance--it's about cable TV ratings. That's where most of the money comes from--as fans are just beginning to find out. Their cable bills keep rising, and it's because the sports channels are taking about half of it and want more--to fuel all those millionaire salaries.

 

It's pretty outrageous, for example, that the Yankees Yes network and the Texas longhorns TV channel are stuck in my cable package, along with WGN Chicago--WSox and Cubs.Plus the NCAAF channel. Channels I don't watch but have to pay for. This is happening to millions of cable viewers throughout the country. But there is an awareness, now, and there are groups in Washington pushing for an end to this. If it happens, those sports budgets will collapse in a hurry. The cable suppliers aren't happy about it either. They are just passing the cost increases on to the cable subscribers.

 

The growth MIGHT slow - it ain't collapsing. Not one iota. What is the substitute good? Streaming media? Who owns streaming media platforms? The same media companies who run the cable companies.