Will Middlebrooks

[jacksonianmarch]

WMB is cheap and has shown flashes of being a plus power guy long term. You cut bait now and you'll get 50 cents on the dollar. If he comes out and hits 30 bombs and drives in 100 next yr, you can debate if you want to maximize return

[jung]

WMB is cheap and has shown flashes of being a plus power guy long term. You cut bait now and you'll get 50 cents on the dollar. If he comes out and hits 30 bombs and drives in 100 next yr, you can debate if you want to maximize return

 

This is exactly why I suggested this is the wrong time to give up on WMB. At least ya' gotta' give yourself the opportunity to get back full value for him if you decide you don't want him...giving up on him and getting nothing for him only to see him hitting 25 bombs for somebody else would be a very bad deal indeed.

[marklmw]

This is exactly why I suggested this is the wrong time to give up on WMB. At least ya' gotta' give yourself the opportunity to get back full value for him if you decide you don't want him...giving up on him and getting nothing for him only to see him hitting 25 bombs for somebody else would be a very bad deal indeed.

What if WMB is on pace to hit 30 bombs playing at AAA Pawtucket next season? Would he have value to be traded then? The thing about baseball is that you have to build your team for 2 seasons ... the regular season and the post season. Error's may not seem like a big deal during the regular season because of the number of games played but an error in the post season can be the difference between winning and losing a series. This is why players that provide better defense have increased value during the post season ... think Drew and Ross.

[jung]

3rd base is not SS and Catcher though. Those are the top two defensive positions on the field. 3rd base is pretty far downstream from there and a position where you have to be expecting some offensive grunt.

 

I don't think Pawtucket performance would do much to enhance WMB's value. He is so so young and I think that is one thing we tend to forget....maybe because he has been a topic of discussion for so long at the ML level. The way the whole Youk thing went down may have turned out to be something of a set up for WMB. He has so much more time to develop as a competent ML 3rd baseman. The other thing that may be hurting him a bit is that some players do develop on a faster time line and guys like Will end up looking like their development has just stopped.

 

I would be pretty surprised if the Sox end up getting suckered into giving up on Will too early.

[sk7326]

What if WMB is on pace to hit 30 bombs playing at AAA Pawtucket next season? Would he have value to be traded then? The thing about baseball is that you have to build your team for 2 seasons ... the regular season and the post season. Error's may not seem like a big deal during the regular season because of the number of games played but an error in the post season can be the difference between winning and losing a series. This is why players that provide better defense have increased value during the post season ... think Drew and Ross.

 

Errors seem like less of a big deal because it is not really the primary focus of defense. After all, you can't make an error on a ball you cannot reach. I think with Middlebrooks, you have to look at some decisions they did make after his callup. He played 2B in a pinch - and did not embarass himself small sample size noted. In the Detroit series, he was brought in to pinch run for Bogaerts. So the athletic tools are there and valued. He had a rough defensive start to the season, probably due to his entire form going to seed at the plate. But he was good defensively a year ago, and clearly he is a high caliber athlete - this is not a 1B in hiding.

 

As for the idea of a team for October and a team for the regular season - I strongly disagree. Baseball has not yet gone the way of hockey. 5 of 15 teams is a pretty elite group, especially in a division like the AL East where you don't get to coast. You have to build the team to qualify for the tournament - and then figure out the rest later, maybe the trade deadline, maybe later than that.

[marklmw]

3rd base is not SS and Catcher though. Those are the top two defensive positions on the field. 3rd base is pretty far downstream from there and a position where you have to be expecting some offensive grunt.

 

I don't think Pawtucket performance would do much to enhance WMB's value. He is so so young and I think that is one thing we tend to forget....maybe because he has been a topic of discussion for so long at the ML level. The way the whole Youk thing went down may have turned out to be something of a set up for WMB. He has so much more time to develop as a competent ML 3rd baseman. The other thing that may be hurting him a bit is that some players do develop on a faster time line and guys like Will end up looking like their development has just stopped.

 

I would be pretty surprised if the Sox end up getting suckered into giving up on Will too early.

 

I have no issue with WMB's glove ... he looks solid at 3rd. The issue is if you keep Drew at Short you have to have a place for Bogaerts to play and that would be 3rd.

[mvp 78]

What if WMB is on pace to hit 30 bombs playing at AAA Pawtucket next season? Would he have value to be traded then? The thing about baseball is that you have to build your team for 2 seasons ... the regular season and the post season. Error's may not seem like a big deal during the regular season because of the number of games played but an error in the post season can be the difference between winning and losing a series. This is why players that provide better defense have increased value during the post season ... think Drew and Ross.

Will is a better 3b than Xander.

[Red Foreman]

I think that Middlebrooks will be end up getting traded. If we can get an elite 1st base prospect, maybe we move him for someone who is MLB ready to play 1st but is blocked in the pipeline. It is no sure thing that we get back Napoli.

 

 

 

Why not convert him to a 1B as opposed to trading him for one?

[Dojji]

Why not convert him to a 1B as opposed to trading him for one?

 

because everything he does poorly is what he'd need to do at 1B, and everything he does well is what moving to 1B renders irrelevant.

 

We're talking about an athletic, toolsy, rangy 3B, who struggles with plate discipline and moving him to first base where his athletics and tools aren't that important, and his weaknesses are even more exposed by virtue of needing to hit at 1B moreso than 3B.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Dojji

[dupree]

2014 infield

 

1B Napoli

2B Peedy

SS Boggy

3B WMB

 

I think they resign Napoli to the 3 year deal for 39million plus incentives... and as far as WMB teams will call and check on him that we be sure but i think he locks down his hitting this offseason and he is the starting 3B for years to come.

[sk7326]

WMB is better defensively than Bogaerts. Indeed, Bogaerts has an amazing projections, but it is not for his offense. He'd be a better 3B than SS, but he has more value as a SS, and he should be adequate there. It's not a slam on Bogaerts ability - after all the Yankees have won 5-titles with only "adequate" defense from the SS position. I think what it comes down to is that Middlebrooks-Boegarts is a cheaper left side of the infield with a much higher ceiling than Bogaerts-Drew. We went with the latter in October because ceiling doesn't matter when you are trying to win a 3-week tournament.

[BSN07]

There is no reason to give up on WMB while he is still so inexpensive. Sure if a sweetheart deal comes along you consider it but I doubt many of those will be coming. Right now you hold onto him and see what happens with Drew and Napoli first.

[vjcsmoke]

I don't think the Red Sox should sell low on WMB. But at age 25, I wouldn't call him 'so young' anymore. A lot of baseball prospects come into their own in the 22-24 year old window. WMB is actually a slightly older prospect imo. Youk was more of an exception. Most ball player's don't bloom that late. Youk didn't hit his full stride until age 27.

 

I think we'll give WMB another chance to show something next year, but we will likely move him at the trade deadline if he doesn't show he is good enough to be a regular starter. Right now there is ZERO reason to choose WMB over Xander Bogaerts as a starting player.

 

I don't think Pawtucket performance would do much to enhance WMB's value. He is so so young and I think that is one thing we tend to forget....maybe because he has been a topic of discussion for so long at the ML level. The way the whole Youk thing went down may have turned out to be something of a set up for WMB. He has so much more time to develop as a competent ML 3rd baseman. The other thing that may be hurting him a bit is that some players do develop on a faster time line and guys like Will end up looking like their development has just stopped.

 

I would be pretty surprised if the Sox end up getting suckered into giving up on Will too early.

[Behindenemylines]

WMB will get another season to prove himself. The Sox have Cecchini in the high minor leagues, and though he doesn't have the power of WMB he is probably going to be a much better all around hitter. He will probably ready in 2015 and will push WMB to be better or out of town.

[jung]

I guess we will never know but I wonder if Will would have been better served left down at the AAA level instead of coming up for the 2012 season. He may actually have lost some development time in these last couple years. He just turned 25 a month ago, this past September. 23 is considered pretty darned young for a full time ML ball player. So he has gone from really young to not so much in the space of two years of ball, partially injured, partially up with the big club and partially down at AAA again. Not sure he was well served during the 2012/2013 season. given the amount of time spent in each of those three spots.

 

I would suggest that given the time that has been lost to injury and from bouncing back and forth, he really should have two years to get it together. However, none of it can be wasted. He should be getting himself ready to work really hard this off-season. Best case, he does not need more than this off-season and can at least perform at a competent level in 2014, improving the entire time. Depending on how SS and 1st pans out the optimal situation for Will would likely be XB gets SS and he gets 3rd. Will does not have great range going left which might be why he was so far off the line late in that game where he was just nowhere near the ball as it scooted past him down the 3rd base line. 1st base could be an option but I would think that is an absolute last resort....I mean very last resort.

Edited November 3, 2013 by jung

[sk7326]

I don't think the Red Sox should sell low on WMB. But at age 25, I wouldn't call him 'so young' anymore. A lot of baseball prospects come into their own in the 22-24 year old window. WMB is actually a slightly older prospect imo. Youk was more of an exception. Most ball player's don't bloom that late. Youk didn't hit his full stride until age 27.

 

I think we'll give WMB another chance to show something next year, but we will likely move him at the trade deadline if he doesn't show he is good enough to be a regular starter. Right now there is ZERO reason to choose WMB over Xander Bogaerts as a starting player.

 

You are not wrong - although he is young in terms of reps - when he was drafted, he was something of a project. This was well known at the time. Considering you expect a physical peak for dudes in the 27-30 sort of range, Middlebrooks still has some development you can plan on. And generally, betting on excellent athletes (who do have baseball skill) "figuring it out" is a sound wager.

 

Jung is right that the hype on Middlebrooks preceded the performance - he came up because our 3B fell to pieces, that's it. He came up, had a good month, exhibited serious upside. The Boston hype machine anointed him and kicked Youkilis out the door. Somebody had to play 3B. I do think his injury in 2012 was a huge hit - that was another 150 PAs or so of development he missed. What I look at is that he is one of the best athletes in the system - he has serious raw power, and not just raw power, but power which has translated into games. He has the tools to be good defensively, although he is raw there. He is just relatively raw generally - and given his background, it is not a surprise. He's not as raw as Wily Mo Pena certainly, but in the same way that Wily Mo was a toolsy phenom who was not raw, raw, raw ... Middlebrooks is similar. I think Middlebrooks is a much better candidate to "get it", as he has shown steady improvement.

 

Even after his callup in August, he was better. His mechanics were simpler, his plate discipline was better. You have to be careful with changing him too much - while yes you want to hone his approach and improve his plate discipline and whatever ... the urge to swing the bat is born, not made. The preternatural ability of the Yooks, Napolis or Adam Dunn to take and rake is not something you can teach. What Middlebrooks CAN work on is swinging at more of "his" pitches (I can't count the number of times I saw him take perfectly hittable 3rd strikes), and spoiling other ones, and laying off the outsided junk as much as possible. He is never going to be more than a .320-.330 OBP guy ... but he has a package of skills and athletic talent, where a "good enough" OBP results in a damn good baseball player.

[seabeachfred]

2014 infield

 

1B Napoli

2B Peedy

SS Boggy

3B WMB

 

I think they resign Napoli to the 3 year deal for 39million plus incentives... and as far as WMB teams will call and check on him that we be sure but i think he locks down his hitting this offseason and he is the starting 3B for years to come.

 

That's my choice for the infield in 2014 and I hope that's what it ends up being. Napoli turned into a pretty good defensive first baseman this season and is young enough still to give us three or so more solid seasons as well as protection for Big Papi in the lineup. I still don't know why many here keep bagging on Middlebrooks. Yes, he had a reversal this year but is young enough to be solid for us for years to come. He plays a pretty good 3B, has good power and give our left side of the infield, in fact the whole infield some good right handed power in a division where there are a lot of decent southpaw pitchers.

[marklmw]

That's my choice for the infield in 2014 and I hope that's what it ends up being. Napoli turned into a pretty good defensive first baseman this season and is young enough still to give us three or so more solid seasons as well as protection for Big Papi in the lineup. I still don't know why many here keep bagging on Middlebrooks. Yes, he had a reversal this year but is young enough to be solid for us for years to come. He plays a pretty good 3B, has good power and give our left side of the infield, in fact the whole infield some good right handed power in a division where there are a lot of decent southpaw pitchers.

I will bet a steak dinner that the Sox do not sign Napoli at 39 / 3 guaranteed money contract. Nothing has changed with his hip condition between the beginning and end of the 2013 season. Nada ... think Bo Jackson when you think hip conditions. I have a feeling that Nap's is looking at a series of 1 year contracts for the remainder of his career. Base salaries of 4-5M with incentives.

Edited November 4, 2013 by marklmw

[jung]

It will be interesting to see how FA will play out for Naps. Have to think any team that has any interest in him would question the hip.....So I am having a hard time convincing myself that Naps ever gets to escape hip concerns. If anything maybe it ends up making it easier for the Sox to sign him if that is what they want to do.

[User Name]

I will bet a steak dinner that the Sox do not sign Napoli at 39 / 3 guaranteed money contract. Nothing has changed with his hip condition between the beginning and end of the 2013 season. Nada ... think Bo Jackson when you think hip conditions. I have a feeling that Nap's is looking at a series of 1 year contracts for the remainder of his career. Base salaries of 4-5M with incentives.

 

Or you can think Brett Favre, who played most of his career with AVN.

[redsoxfan3]

I will bet a steak dinner that the Sox do not sign Napoli at 39 / 3 guaranteed money contract. Nothing has changed with his hip condition between the beginning and end of the 2013 season. Nada ... think Bo Jackson when you think hip conditions. I have a feeling that Nap's is looking at a series of 1 year contracts for the remainder of his career. Base salaries of 4-5M with incentives.

 

I just don't think that is realistic. He played on an incentive laden contract this year because there was a lot of concern with his hip condition. You say that "nothing has changed with his hip condition between the beginning and end of the 2013 season." That is not really a true statement. He does have a hip condition, but he proved that he can play 139 games this past season with his hip condition.

 

A lot of the concern had to do with him catching with his hip condition. Playing first base is not as physically demanding as catching, but that is exactly why the Red Sox signed him to play first base over catching. There is still some concern related to his hip condition (and there always will be), but that is not as relevant this offseason as it was last offseason since it was not a factor this past season. I think he can find himself a 2 to 3 year contract in the 26 to 39 million range, respectively. He did enough this year to justify not signing an incentive laden deal as of right now. That might be the case later on down the road if the hip condition turns into a problem.

 

My preference as of right now is to sign him to a two year, 26 million dollar contract, with a team option for a third year at 13 million. This way if the hip does become an issue, then we do not have to pick up his option for the third year. A team is going to offer him more than a one year contract. If you think we are going to offer him a one year contract of a 5 million base salary that is incentive laden, you will not see Napoli playing in Boston next year. We are offering him a qualifying offer, so at the least he will be making 14.1 million next year if he doesn't get a multiyear contract.

[Dojji]

Or you can think Brett Favre, who played most of his career with AVN.

 

Not to mention Tom Brady's eternal shoulder injury.

[marklmw]

I just don't think that is realistic. He played on an incentive laden contract this year because there was a lot of concern with his hip condition. You say that "nothing has changed with his hip condition between the beginning and end of the 2013 season." That is not really a true statement. He does have a hip condition, but he proved that he can play 139 games this past season with his hip condition.

 

A lot of the concern had to do with him catching with his hip condition. Playing first base is not as physically demanding as catching, but that is exactly why the Red Sox signed him to play first base over catching. There is still some concern related to his hip condition (and there always will be), but that is not as relevant this offseason as it was last offseason since it was not a factor this past season. I think he can find himself a 2 to 3 year contract in the 26 to 39 million range, respectively. He did enough this year to justify not signing an incentive laden deal as of right now. That might be the case later on down the road if the hip condition turns into a problem.

 

My preference as of right now is to sign him to a two year, 26 million dollar contract, with a team option for a third year at 13 million. This way if the hip does become an issue, then we do not have to pick up his option for the third year. A team is going to offer him more than a one year contract. If you think we are going to offer him a one year contract of a 5 million base salary that is incentive laden, you will not see Napoli playing in Boston next year. We are offering him a qualifying offer, so at the least he will be making 14.1 million next year if he doesn't get a multiyear contract.

 

If the hip goes he will not be playing bat boy. The QO was not such a risk for Boston ... if Napoli accepts and plays a full season in 2014 it is adding a mere 1.1M over his 2013 pay. If he goes down with hip problems then it cost Boston + 9.1M worse case scenario. Less then was was spent in 2013 for Hanrahan and Bailey.

[Dojji]

Personally I think they'd be lucky to get him for 3/39. Even with the health issue mulliganed, some of the open questions that were there about Napoli's defense were answered, and answered very strongly in his favor. Furthermore his type of hitter by and large tends to age well. 3/45 or even 4/60 don't seem all that unreasonable when you combine his very satsifactory offense with one of the top UZR's at first base in the league and note that the hip issue was a red herring last year.

[marklmw]

Personally I think they'd be lucky to get him for 3/39. Even with the health issue mulliganed, some of the open questions that were there about Napoli's defense were answered, and answered very strongly in his favor. Furthermore his type of hitter by and large tends to age well. 3/45 or even 4/60 don't seem all that unreasonable when you combine his very satsifactory offense with one of the top UZR's at first base in the league and note that the hip issue was a red herring last year.

Doji ... you really believe this? Napoli put up Napoli numbers last season. When the Sox signed him to 3/39 he was a year younger. The Sox intended him to play first base when they signed him. Now Napoli is a year older and he is going to get a 4 year deal. I do not think so.

[Dojji]

Compare his production to other 1B in the league and I think the contract would be pretty reasonable at 3/45

[dahc73]

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[redsoxfan3]

If the hip goes he will not be playing bat boy. The QO was not such a risk for Boston ... if Napoli accepts and plays a full season in 2014 it is adding a mere 1.1M over his 2013 pay. If he goes down with hip problems then it cost Boston + 9.1M worse case scenario. Less then was was spent in 2013 for Hanrahan and Bailey.

 

That is a risk that the Red Sox and a lot of teams are willing to take. The hip was fine this entire past season. Like I said, he is playing 1B for a reason and not catcher. You are contradicting yourself. You said in your previous post that you want to offer him a 4-5 million dollar contract that is incentive laden on a one year deal, but now you are saying that 14.1 million is not that much of a risk. It is not incentive laden at all. It is completely different than what you were saying in your previous post.

 

The last part of your post doesn't make sense. If he goes down with a hip problem in 2014 if he accepts the qualifying offer, he still will make 14.1 million no matter what, so how do you calculate 9.1 million in there? The 14.1 million is guaranteed.

 

Doji ... you really believe this? Napoli put up Napoli numbers last season. When the Sox signed him to 3/39 he was a year younger. The Sox intended him to play first base when they signed him. Now Napoli is a year older and he is going to get a 4 year deal. I do not think so.

 

One year is not really that big of a difference. It isn't like we are talking about a 25 year old Napoli versus a 35 year old Napoli. He almost signed at 3/39 last year. He proved that his hip can last through an entire year. I fully expect the floor for his contract to be somewhere at 3/39. I don't really understand why that is hard to believe. He almost got that contract last year.

[User Name]

He said Napoli would make 9 million more than what he made this year, which is still incorrect, since Napoli hit most, if not all, of his contract incentives.

[marklmw]

He said Napoli would make 9 million more than what he made this year, which is still incorrect, since Napoli hit most, if not all, of his contract incentives.

 

Both of you misinterpreted what I said. I said that if Napoli gets injured he makes 14.1m vs. the 5m guaranteed in 2013. That is a difference of 9.1m. The reason why you make the QO is to obtain a high draft pic. Henry Owens might be the next farm hand to crack the Sox starting rotation and he was a compensation pick. Boston might be smart to pocket this years WS Championship and just go about as they are rebuilding. Bogaerts and JBJ just might have magical seasons alla Lynn and Rice and they can still get back to the post season sans Ellsbury, Drew, and Salty.