Will Middlebrooks

[redsoxrules]

If they are not sold on Middlebrooks then they will try to sign Drew and move XB to 3rd.

[redsoxfan3]

If they are not sold on Middlebrooks then they will try to sign Drew and move XB to 3rd.

 

That is true. I just don't see us resigning Drew. That is just my personal opinion. Of course, the FO will have to feel that Xander is ready to start everyday at SS and that Middlebrooks will be consistent enough to play 3B. Obviously, if we do not resign Drew, we need a solid utility infielder to be able to play 2B, SS, and 3B. I would prefer a veteran guy over a guy like Holt. That is not going to be easy to find, at least one with a decent bat and that is solid defensively.

[sk7326]

Boras will look to maximize Drew's income - Drew getting $14M in year 1 is better than anything he could dream of on the market. He could easily accept it and deal with next year when it shows up. That said, its in neither party's interest to do a QO. It's an expensive gamble for the Red Sox to make and Drew wants to go where he can start (Saint Louis would be an obvious choice for one).

 

I think the Red Sox like Middlebrooks at 3B, but you worry about hurt feelings next season. Really Middlebrooks success will be essentially the same challenges as what Josh Reddick has faced. He doesn't have to be a .350 OBP guy, but it he can be a .320 OBP sort of guy that might be enough to let him get to the stuff he can do (the raw power and athleticism at 3B). Low OBP guys can still be immensely valuable - and Middlebrooks certainly has the tools to do so. You generally can do worse than betting on an athlete of his caliber to figure things out enough to be a quality starter.

[Dojji]

Boras will look to maximize Drew's income - Drew getting $14M in year 1 is better than anything he could dream of on the market.

 

I disagree. When you're a big league athlete, job security brought by extra years matters a ton. Especially as you get into your 30's. Boras is no fool. If the AAV is close, the more years the better, and he knows that -- heck, he helped invent it. 4 years 12M/year is a better deal for a 31 year old SS than 1 year with a higher AAV, and he should be able to get 4/48 easily enough.

 

He doesn't have to be a .350 OBP guy, but it he can be a .320 OBP sort of guy that might be enough to let him get to the stuff he can do (the raw power and athleticism at 3B)

 

The question is, how long will this organization really be able to deal with having a Juan Uribe type playing a key corner position that needs to generate the runs?

Edited October 19, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

That would be incredibly stupid. Drew will not accept the QO. He's the BPA at a premium position, NWIH he won't get a multi year deal somewhere. I think the Yankees will be hiring, I know other franchises will be. A good defensive shortstop that can OPS nearly 800 can make bank no problem.

 

If he accepts the QO you work him and Bogaerts and Middlebrooks around each other and have the best left-side infield in the league. Drew is no iron-man and Middlebrooks is a work in progress so don't tell me Bogaerts wouldn't get plenty of playing time.

 

Maybe you are right. If Drew can get a multi-year deal he will go for it and decline a QO from Boston. I doubt it will be the Yankees however, Jeter is not going to retire without his farewell tour.

[Dojji]

Maybe you are right. If Drew can get a multi-year deal he will go for it and decline a QO from Boston. I doubt it will be the Yankees however, Jeter is not going to retire without his farewell tour.

 

He will if he realizees the obvious -- that he's doing his team no favors by going into the offseason trying to stay on as their starting SS.

[User Name]

Dojji, why do you keep comparing WMB to Juan Uribe? It's a stupid comparison.

[marklmw]

He will if he realizees the obvious -- that he's doing his team no favors by going into the offseason trying to stay on as their starting SS.

 

Jeter will be back .... mark my words.

[Dojji]

Dojji, why do you keep comparing WMB to Juan Uribe? It's a stupid comparison.

Sure, the fact that Uribe's been the more valuable player of the two so far to this point of their careers does mar the comparison a bit, I'll give you that.

 

Jeter will be back .... mark my words.

 

After playing 15 games the prior year? I wouldn't be too stunned if the Yankees weren't interested -- at least not if he still wants to insist he's the starting shortstop. If he wants to putter around for a season or so as the utility guy with the iconic name that's another story perhaps.

[Palodios]

Sure, the fact that Uribe's been the more valuable player of the two so far to this point of their careers does mar the comparison a bit, I'll give you that.

 

 

 

After playing 15 games the prior year? I wouldn't be too stunned if the Yankees weren't interested -- at least not if he still wants to insist he's the starting shortstop. If he wants to putter around for a season or so as the utility guy with the iconic name that's another story perhaps.

 

It is a player option, not a team option.

[Dojji]

Yeah, and if the Yankees make it clear to Jetes that they consider the SS position open for competition whether he picks up the option or not, is he really going to want to let his legacy be getting beat on the field? No one knows how this works, especially in New York, better than Derek Jeter, it's clear to everyone that it's time, I'm sure he's figured that out too.

 

Mo went out on top, Pettitte went out on top. Jeter waited a year too long as it is, he'll take his dignity and move on if the Yankees make it clear they aren't saving a spot for him.

[dupree]

I think Jeter will be back next year and have a fairwell tour like Mo had this year. Its the Yankee Way of exploiting their players and cashing in on them for saying goodbye and selling more tickets without caring what they do on the field

[User Name]

Uribe is not as talented as WMB. He was (and is) a much more vulnerable hitter aided in his initial years by a bandbox, and is not nearly as disciplined as WMB. His tools also don't match up well with WMB's from a scouting perspective.

 

But hey, why look at facts when you have an irrational dislike for a player and an irrational boner for other (much inferior) players than the ones you dislike?

 

Dojji: Where irrational happens!

[mvp 78]

Per baseball reference, WMB is most similar to Frank Thomas at age 24.

[User Name]

Uribe also started his career in Colorado.

[sk7326]

I disagree. When you're a big league athlete, job security brought by extra years matters a ton. Especially as you get into your 30's. Boras is no fool. If the AAV is close, the more years the better, and he knows that -- heck, he helped invent it. 4 years 12M/year is a better deal for a 31 year old SS than 1 year with a higher AAV, and he should be able to get 4/48 easily enough.

 

 

 

The question is, how long will this organization really be able to deal with having a Juan Uribe type playing a key corner position that needs to generate the runs?

 

Drew's QO will kill a lot of his attractiveness on the market - it makes sense for he and his team to show they are willing to take the offer ... enough so the Red Sox will not offer it.

[sk7326]

Comparing Uribe to Middlebrooks is silly. Middlebrooks just turned 26 while Uribe is is 34. Uribe was a 5 win player this year, which was a screaming fluke driven by BABIP way out of line with his career. Middlebrooks was barely replacement level this year - although given where he was when he got sent down, that represents a nice comeback.

 

I love on-base machines. We all should - it is the fundemental role of offense. But guys who AREN'T are not doomed to be useless. Middlebrooks (unlike Uribe) has safely another 2 years or so of legitimate development and growth we can look to. He is also a terrific athlete (as evidenced by his two-sport background, and shown by being chosen to pinch run for Bogaerts in an important spot in Game 5) - and excellent athletes with good work ethic are always good candidates to "get it". Raw power which gets into games (and not just left in the batting cage like Ryan Sweeney), and the ability to play a good 3B defensively (granted his slump earlier this year bled into that), and the ability to back up other positions (he has shown he can fake 2B) - there is quite a bit there to like. That is an above average starting 3B - he just needs the reps.

[Dojji]

Drew's QO will kill a lot of his attractiveness on the market - it makes sense for he and his team to show they are willing to take the offer ... enough so the Red Sox will not offer it.

 

His QO won't kill crap. he's the best shortstop on the market, teams will line up to bid for his services pick or no pick, please stop trying to pretend otherwise.

 

And of course the Red Sox will offer. They're loaded with cash, what they fear most is big year commitments having been burnt by Agon and Crawford. If Drew accepts, the worst thing that can possibly happen is a 1 year commitment to exactly the kind of player they like -- a shortstop who's good on the defensive end and provides multiple wins above replacement offensively. That, on a 1 year deal, even for big money, isn't the end of the world unless you're a fan of Will Middlebrooks and want to see him get 162 games next year.

 

In fact given their love of depth I suspect it's an outcome that the Sox FO would prefer to seeing someone else sign Drew for multiple years and give them a pick -- they still don't exactly have anyone behind XB at short right now, if Drew leaves.

 

Bogaerts is the starting shortstop of the future. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON he utterly HAS to be the staring shortstop next April. If he works around Drew for another year, that's not going to do him any harm at all -- and that's assuming XB doesn't come out guns blazing and force the issue.

 

Comparing Uribe to Middlebrooks is silly. Middlebrooks just turned 26 while Uribe is is 34. Uribe was a 5 win player this year, which was a screaming fluke driven by BABIP way out of line with his career. Middlebrooks was barely replacement level this year - although given where he was when he got sent down, that represents a nice comeback.

 

He's the type of player I see Middlebrooks turning into. Not the type of player Middlebrooks is right now, of course that would be silly.

Edited October 20, 2013 by Dojji

[sk7326]

His QO won't kill crap. he's the best shortstop on the market, teams will line up to bid for his services pick or no pick, please stop trying to pretend otherwise.

 

And of course the Red Sox will offer. They're loaded with cash, what they fear most is big year commitments having been burnt by Agon and Crawford. If Drew accepts, the worst thing that can possibly happen is a 1 year commitment to exactly the kind of player they like -- a shortstop who's good on the defensive end and provides multiple wins above replacement offensively. That, on a 1 year deal, even for big money, isn't the end of the world unless you're a fan of Will Middlebrooks and want to see him get 162 games next year.

 

In fact given their love of depth I suspect it's an outcome that the Sox FO would prefer to seeing someone else sign Drew for multiple years and give them a pick -- they still don't exactly have anyone behind XB at short right now, if Drew leaves.

 

Bogaerts is the starting shortstop of the future. There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON he utterly HAS to be the staring shortstop next April. If he works around Drew for another year, that's not going to do him any harm at all -- and that's assuming XB doesn't come out guns blazing and force the issue.

 

 

 

He's the type of player I see Middlebrooks turning into. Not the type of player Middlebrooks is right now, of course that would be silly.

 

Middlebrooks is already there with an 8 year age advantage (and honestly far less dedicated baseball training) ... look at Uribe's past seasons and Middlebrooks 2012 already beat it.

 

You look at the issues Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse had in the market this past season - the QO millstone does matter for both sides ... there were precious few offered, and for some of the obvious non cracker jack guys, it caused them a lot of problems finding work. And Bourn is a better player than Drew and he had a serious lack of suitors.

 

A good team will be very gunshy to give up its 1st rounder for Drew. A bad team which doesn't have to surrender a pick won't be - but if those are the only teams Drew will field offers from, he might as well take the QO (potentially).

 

Bogaerts is ready for this. His reps have been limited, and I am not going make a small sample overreaction, but I watch the same at-bats you do. And yes, starting him in AAA is not a tragedy ... although his trajectory (and those of comparable cases) would indicate that it's not necessarily likely. But there is a lot of stuff already there which is big-league ready ... you just need the strong hands to let him do it. The team's evaluation has to be whether this is the sort of dude who can take the pushing, the challenging - judging by the evidence to date, that is a resounding yes.

[marklmw]

Middlebrooks is already there with an 8 year age advantage (and honestly far less dedicated baseball training) ... look at Uribe's past seasons and Middlebrooks 2012 already beat it.

 

You look at the issues Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse had in the market this past season - the QO millstone does matter for both sides ... there were precious few offered, and for some of the obvious non cracker jack guys, it caused them a lot of problems finding work. And Bourn is a better player than Drew and he had a serious lack of suitors.

 

A good team will be very gunshy to give up its 1st rounder for Drew. A bad team which doesn't have to surrender a pick won't be - but if those are the only teams Drew will field offers from, he might as well take the QO (potentially).

 

Bogaerts is ready for this. His reps have been limited, and I am not going make a small sample overreaction, but I watch the same at-bats you do. And yes, starting him in AAA is not a tragedy ... although his trajectory (and those of comparable cases) would indicate that it's not necessarily likely. But there is a lot of stuff already there which is big-league ready ... you just need the strong hands to let him do it. The team's evaluation has to be whether this is the sort of dude who can take the pushing, the challenging - judging by the evidence to date, that is a resounding yes.

 

How does that QA work? .... suppose a team with one of the 10 worse records for 2013 were to sign Drew. This would mean that the team does not have to forfeit a draft pick but at the same time the Sox will get a pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. correct.

If that be the case than it is quite possible that one of those 10 teams could use a shortstop ... these teams tend to need a lot of help and Drew could improve any of these teams. IMO ... If the Sox do not come to terms with Ellsbury they will make a QO to Ellsbury. If the Sox do not come to terms with Salty they will make a QO to Salty. Drew I am 50 / 50 on if the Sox will make an offer. I suppose they will take into considering the needs of the 10 teams mentioned above. I agree with you that the Sox could handle the 14M for another season if Drew accepts the offer. I think the Sox will try to re-sign Napoli under similar terms as this past season but maybe for 2 years. Base with incentives based on games played. I do not see how anything changed from last years signing. I think if the Sox cannot come to terms with Napoli that they will make a QO to him as well. Again the Sox can risk 14M over 1 year as they continue to look for a longer term solution to 1B need. I had my heart set on Abreu.

[redsoxrules]

Middlebrooks is already there with an 8 year age advantage (and honestly far less dedicated baseball training) ... look at Uribe's past seasons and Middlebrooks 2012 already beat it.

 

You look at the issues Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse had in the market this past season - the QO millstone does matter for both sides ... there were precious few offered, and for some of the obvious non cracker jack guys, it caused them a lot of problems finding work. And Bourn is a better player than Drew and he had a serious lack of suitors.

 

A good team will be very gunshy to give up its 1st rounder for Drew. A bad team which doesn't have to surrender a pick won't be - but if those are the only teams Drew will field offers from, he might as well take the QO (potentially).

 

Bogaerts is ready for this. His reps have been limited, and I am not going make a small sample overreaction, but I watch the same at-bats you do. And yes, starting him in AAA is not a tragedy ... although his trajectory (and those of comparable cases) would indicate that it's not necessarily likely. But there is a lot of stuff already there which is big-league ready ... you just need the strong hands to let him do it. The team's evaluation has to be whether this is the sort of dude who can take the pushing, the challenging - judging by the evidence to date, that is a resounding yes.

 

Bourne @ lohse? Lol!

They are not that good, therefor no teams were interested. Drew is way above those 2 mentioned. Holy f*** I cant believe you compared those 2

[Dojji]

Middlebrooks is already there with an 8 year age advantage (and honestly far less dedicated baseball training) ... look at Uribe's past seasons and Middlebrooks 2012 already beat it.

 

You look at the issues Michael Bourn, Kyle Lohse had in the market this past season - the QO millstone does matter for both sides ... there were precious few offered, and for some of the obvious non cracker jack guys, it caused them a lot of problems finding work. And Bourn is a better player than Drew and he had a serious lack of suitors.

 

Drew stands out in his field much more than Lohse or Bourn. He will be the BPA, Bourn and Lohse weren't close to the BPA in their fields.

A good team will be very gunshy to give up its 1st rounder for Drew. A bad team which doesn't have to surrender a pick won't be - but if those are the only teams Drew will field offers from, he might as well take the QO (potentially).

 

I think teams will have no problem trading a pick for Drew considering how hard it is to find a good two-way SS. I know if Drew was hitting the market last year in his current state I would have wanted the Sox to be in on him.

 

Teams whose plan A at shortstop have fallen through, who have money to burn, are going to be looking at Drew's asking price. Like I said, I fully expect the Yankees to inquire.

 

Bogaerts is ready for this. His reps have been limited, and I am not going make a small sample overreaction, but I watch the same at-bats you do. And yes, starting him in AAA is not a tragedy ... although his trajectory (and those of comparable cases) would indicate that it's not necessarily likely. But there is a lot of stuff already there which is big-league ready ... you just need the strong hands to let him do it. The team's evaluation has to be whether this is the sort of dude who can take the pushing, the challenging - judging by the evidence to date, that is a resounding yes.

 

There is absolutely no need to put Bogaerts in AAA. If we kept Drew because he accepted the QO, Bogaerts would hang around in the majors in a backup role looking to Wally Pipp either Drew or Middlebrooks.

[sk7326]

There is absolutely no need to put Bogaerts in AAA. If we kept Drew because he accepted the QO, Bogaerts would hang around in the majors in a backup role looking to Wally Pipp either Drew or Middlebrooks.

 

One thing I can say fairly confidently. If Drew is the starting SS, there is zero chance Bogaerts is breaking camp on the roster. Better a guy like him get at-bats, period. Sox already sort of (completely justifiably) robbed him of reps by bringing him up in late August without a starting gig available ... he's not going to get the work he needs playing once a week with the big club.

[Dojji]

One thing I can say fairly confidently. If Drew is the starting SS, there is zero chance Bogaerts is breaking camp on the roster.

 

Do not agree. If Drew was healthier and Middlebrooks more consistent, perhaps you'd have a point, but the backup is going to see some heavy use, and there's so little point in stashing a guy who's succeeded in the playoffs in AAA that even if Drew stuck around I have no doubt bogaerts would force his way onto the roster as well -- he's practically already done so.

 

There is no rule stating that our utility infielder has to be some no-hit guy.

[sk7326]

Do not agree. If Drew was healthier and Middlebrooks more consistent, perhaps you'd have a point, but the backup is going to see some heavy use, and there's so little point in stashing a guy who's succeeded in the playoffs in AAA that even if Drew stuck around I have no doubt bogaerts would force his way onto the roster as well -- he's practically already done so.

 

There is no rule stating that our utility infielder has to be some no-hit guy.

 

There isn't - just, as a general thing, not playing is not good for a guy's development. If he's playing twice a week - that is still not quite enough to really get the sort of leap you'd want. I do think there is a risk sending him back, of some senioritis on his part - hard to get motivated when you know you are not being demoted for merit reasons - but that depends on the guy. Either way, getting Bogaerts out there and living with the results is a better long term play - and a better chance of him achieving the parabolic improvement between April and August.

 

As far as Drew goes - I am betting against the QO coming. I don't think it can be a condition of signing him, but I would not be surprised if there was understanding between the two parties that this was supposed to be a short term relationship. Everybody has gotten what they wanted from the deal.

[marklmw]

There isn't - just, as a general thing, not playing is not good for a guy's development. If he's playing twice a week - that is still not quite enough to really get the sort of leap you'd want. I do think there is a risk sending him back, of some senioritis on his part - hard to get motivated when you know you are not being demoted for merit reasons - but that depends on the guy. Either way, getting Bogaerts out there and living with the results is a better long term play - and a better chance of him achieving the parabolic improvement between April and August.

 

As far as Drew goes - I am betting against the QO coming. I don't think it can be a condition of signing him, but I would not be surprised if there was understanding between the two parties that this was supposed to be a short term relationship. Everybody has gotten what they wanted from the deal.

That's a good point ... there might be a gentleman's agreement not to give Drew a QO if he is not re-signed past 2013.

[marklmw]

One thing for sure .... Drew has done nothing at the plate to increase his chances of being re-signed by Boston. His glove has been solid but that is not enough with Bogaerts in the wings. Bogaerts prefers to play short and not 3rd.

[sk7326]

One thing for sure .... Drew has done nothing at the plate to increase his chances of being re-signed by Boston. His glove has been solid but that is not enough with Bogaerts in the wings. Bogaerts prefers to play short and not 3rd.

 

Glove has been better than that. I suspect the FO's mind has been made up on Drew even before the playoffs began.

[marklmw]

Glove has been better than that. I suspect the FO's mind has been made up on Drew even before the playoffs began.

 

sk ... you have a good baseball mind. You are probably right about BC already having his mind made up ... one thing for sure is that Bogaerts is doing everything in the playoffs to ease BC's mind. The kid is as good a prospect as I have seen come through the farm system. He might be as good as Hanley Ramirez.

[sk7326]

sk ... you have a good baseball mind. You are probably right about BC already having his mind made up ... one thing for sure is that Bogaerts is doing everything in the playoffs to ease BC's mind. The kid is as good a prospect as I have seen come through the farm system. He might be as good as Hanley Ramirez.

 

Bogaerts (barring injury) will not miss, guys who have competed at the level at ages like his rarely do ... the question is whether he will be a Jhonny Peralta (offensive SS who is nothing special but who is clearly a starter) or someone you can legitimately build a franchise around.