Will Middlebrooks

[marklmw]

IMO Bogaerts will be the odds-on favorite to win the AL Rookie of Year in 2014. There is no indication that he will not be a success at the plate or on the field. We all should be happy as kids in a candy store. Drew is a nice player ... IMO the Sox will make a QO to him but he will turn it down and sign a 3 -4 year deal with another team. Good for Boston and good for Drew. Middlebrooks will work on his plate discipline and improve greatly next season. Sox make QO to Salty and Salty accepts it ... If not we obtain another high pick ... a good thing for us. Sox make a QO to Napoli ... and Napoli accepts it ... if not we get another pic. I think the Sox will try to sign Ellsbury and if we can't make that happen then we get another high pic from the QO. We are in the best position of any team in MLB. Lavarnway and JBJ could very well have respectable seasons. Victorino can become lead-off, Pedroia back to the 2 hole and Bogaerts can bat 3rd. (that's right I said it) Ortiz, Napoli, Nava, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, JBJ. Deal Dempster and sign Tanaka (although rumor has it that Yankees are in hot pursuit for his services). If we are compensated on for 3 QO's that are not accepted along with our own 1st round pic we will be restocking our farm for years to come.

[Dojji]

Drew is a nice player ... IMO the Sox will make a QO to him but he will turn it down and sign a 3 -4 year deal with another team. Good for Boston and good for Drew.

 

That, plus the concept that even if Drew accepted the QO it'd hardly be the end of the world, have been all I've tried to say.

 

MVP: I use the WAR from Baseball Reference because that's the one I usually use. if you want to make the case that it's inferior, make the case, don't just state it or all you'll get is ignored.

 

Besides, it doesn't take a stathead with a pocket protector and a clipboard collection to figure out that a shortstop who hits to an OPS over .750 and provides at least sufficient defense is an asset. if Fangraphs would like to question that, I think it's better evidence that their methods are suspect than it is that Drew is in any way average, especially for his position.

 

Incidentally, if anything Fangraphs is a little bit higher on Drew's overall value this year than Baseball Reference, so if you have a point, I'm not sure A, what it is, and B, why you'd bother making it.

Edited October 24, 2013 by Dojji

[marklmw]

That, plus the concept that even if Drew accepted the QO it'd hardly be the end of the world, have been all I've tried to say.

 

MVP: I use the WAR from Baseball Reference because that's the one I usually use. if you want to make the case that it's inferior, make the case, don't just state it or all you'll get is ignored.

 

Besides, it doesn't take a stathead with a pocket protector and a clipboard collection to figure out that a shortstop who hits to an OPS over .750 and provides at least sufficient defense is an asset. if Fangraphs would like to question that, I think it's better evidence that their methods are suspect than it is that Drew is in any way average, especially for his position.

 

Incidentally, if anything Fangraphs is a little bit higher on Drew's overall value this year than Baseball Reference, so if you have a point, I'm not sure A, what it is, and B, why you'd bother making it.

 

Whatever!

[mvp 78]

Average > replacement level

 

I didn't denigrate BR's WAR calculation, that was some other awesome poster.

 

Drew is an asset, just not a $13M one. And not one you sign to have sit on your bench for shits and giggles.

[marklmw]

Average > replacement level

 

I didn't denigrate BR's WAR calculation, that was some other awesome poster.

 

Drew is an asset, just not a $13M one. And not one you sign to have sit on your bench for shits and giggles.

 

Especially when you can direct the same $13M to area's of need ... pitching.

[mvp 78]

Especially when you can direct the same $13M to area's of need ... pitching.

 

Or it goes to the Ellsbury fund. Paying players an 8 figure salary to be the backup is ridiculous.

[Dojji]

Average > replacement level

 

I know that. An average player is a roughly 2 WAR. Drew hasn't been that poor when healthy since his rookie campaign.

[mvp 78]

I know that. An average player is a roughly 2 WAR. Drew hasn't been that poor when healthy since his rookie campaign.

 

So he's 1 win better than average, great!

 

Feel free to not apologize for the rest of your post which was directed at me for no reason.

[User Name]

Average > replacement level

 

I didn't denigrate BR's WAR calculation, that was some other awesome poster.

 

Drew is an asset, just not a $13M one. And not one you sign to have sit on your bench for shits and giggles.

 

He can't even get his posters straight, and doesn't understand the stats he's using to make his case. Hopeless.

 

Anyways, Drew has been comfortably above average this season per both WAR calculations, but he just doesn't fit long-term. It is what it is.

 

Also, the fact that Fangraphs values him slightly better this year means nothing when the one who brought up his career value was you, and that was the point. Try to keep up.

Edited October 24, 2013 by User Name?

[User Name]

And for the record, Dojji, Fangraphs WAR is better than BB-REF WAR because both the defensive stat (UZR) and offensive stat (wRAA) are superior.

 

Note: BB-Ref also uses wRAA but they've made some specific tweaks for the formula that make it very imbalanced.

 

And also, you don't "always" use BB-REF WAR. That is a blatant lie which is easy to disprove, and you know it. You are using it because it fits your argument.

[sk7326]

And for the record, Dojji, Fangraphs WAR is better than BB-REF WAR because both the defensive stat (UZR) and offensive stat (wRAA) are superior.

 

Note: BB-Ref also uses wRAA but they've made some specific tweaks for the formula that make it very imbalanced.

 

And also, you don't "always" use BB-REF WAR. That is a blatant lie which is easy to disprove, and you know it. You are using it because it fits your argument.

 

fWAR I think is much better than bbWAR for pitchers for sure - for hitters it is at least a little closer.

 

The bottom line is that Drew is a good shortstop, maybe better than that. But he is blocking a guy the franchise (and me) is bullish on. Could the Bogaerts-guys be wrong? Sure - no doubt. There is some risk there, but you make the best decision you can. Personally to me, the risk is minimal - 21 year olds who have progressed up the system the way he has, we are arguing between whether he will end up Jhonny Peralta or Alex Rodriguez (I know, I know) ... barring injury, it is extremely unlikely he is going to be a flameout. You want some depth? You don't spend on a true starter to provide insurance - or a supplement. Drew is too good to be an "extra guy" and the Red Sox would be spending too much money just to carry an "extra guy" of that caliber.

[mvp 78]

Start WMB on Saturday. He'll be hungry and it's time to feed on the lesser STL starting pitchers.

[marklmw]

Start WMB on Saturday. He'll be hungry and it's time to feed on the lesser STL starting pitchers.

 

Yes ... Bogaerts and Middlebrooks ... Drew could use a day off. I doubt however that Farrell will do it.

[sk7326]

Yes ... Bogaerts and Middlebrooks ... Drew could use a day off. I doubt however that Farrell will do it.

 

I think it's more that Farrell recognizes the impact of exchanging Drew for Bogaerts would have on run prevention. Drew has fielded the ball well enough to absorb his horrendous slump and unlike Pete Kozma (for one), his bat at least has POTENTIAL to snap out of it. Sox pitching has been good in this postseason, but that they have "plus" guys at 6 of the 7 infield/outfield spots has had a lot to do with it as well (LF the only soft spot).

[jung]

As good as Drew's defense was during the season his post season defense has been staggering.....frankly I did not expect it because it is at least a notch if not two notches better than his regular season defense. He has looked so smooth doing everything over there. The ball is just flowing into his glove and flowing out of his throwing hand. His defense during the regular season was more one or the other.....to date this is an unbelievable post season SS defensive performance. I just think this needs to be understood....something has happened to this guy as a consequence of post season play and he has turned into a defensive monster. If that were not the case, I would be more willing to accept the XB/Drew exchange at SS.

 

Not sure if I would immediately go to Will at 3rd in game 3. Would without question go to Will if we see Wacha again and wanted Farrell to go to Will for Game 2 against Wacha.

[sk7326]

Drew has stepped it up big time defensively in the postseason. That said, he had a good defensive season overall - can't compare it to Iglesias clearly, but no slouch either. Bogaerts projection at SS has always been more "fringy to average" than good. Hell, the rise in his prospect status over the last year plus has been the belief that he can achieve "adequate" at SS instead of "future 3B" like scouts had pegged him earlier in his career. I did like how the TBS guys would say "speed on the basepaths" when XB was on - some strong racial stereotyping at work there for a player they hadn't seen.

 

I do like the logic that Peavy as a flyball pitcher - might be the opportune time to swap in Bogaerts at SS for Drew, where the glove dropoff might not be as bad. At the same time. I don't disagree with Farrell's logic here. Drew has provided enough defensive value to be able to carry his bat.

[redsoxfan3]

Drew has stepped it up big time defensively in the postseason. That said, he had a good defensive season overall - can't compare it to Iglesias clearly, but no slouch either. Bogaerts projection at SS has always been more "fringy to average" than good. Hell, the rise in his prospect status over the last year plus has been the belief that he can achieve "adequate" at SS instead of "future 3B" like scouts had pegged him earlier in his career. I did like how the TBS guys would say "speed on the basepaths" when XB was on - some strong racial stereotyping at work there for a player they hadn't seen.

 

I do like the logic that Peavy as a flyball pitcher - might be the opportune time to swap in Bogaerts at SS for Drew, where the glove dropoff might not be as bad. At the same time. I don't disagree with Farrell's logic here. Drew has provided enough defensive value to be able to carry his bat.

 

That is a very relevant point. I think it will be hard for Farrell to sit Drew because of his defense. Game 3 could be the ideal time for Farrell to put Bogaerts at SS and Middlebrooks at 3B, but I just don't see Farrell going away from Drew. I think we really need to hope more than anything that he can start to add some value offensively before we will see a Bogaerts and Middlebrooks combo on the left side. He doesn't have to hit home runs, at this point we can use him getting on base no matter what it takes (walks, errors, bloop singles, etc.).

 

In my opinion, I think it is more of a question as to who starts at 3B in game 3. Will it be Bogaerts or Middlebrooks?

[a700hitter]

That is a very relevant point. I think it will be hard for Farrell to sit Drew because of his defense. Game 3 could be the ideal time for Farrell to put Bogaerts at SS and Middlebrooks at 3B, but I just don't see Farrell going away from Drew. I think we really need to hope more than anything that he can start to add some value offensively before we will see a Bogaerts and Middlebrooks combo on the left side. He doesn't have to hit home runs, at this point we can use him getting on base no matter what it takes (walks, errors, bloop singles, etc.).

 

In my opinion, I think it is more of a question as to who starts at 3B in game 3. Will it be Bogaerts or Middlebrooks?

 

I think Drew would sit if the Cards had any lefty starters, but they don't. I think Drew plays every game. We need for him to break out. Does anyone know if he is streaky like JD? JD would get white hot when he was locked in.

[sk7326]

I think Drew would sit if the Cards had any lefty starters, but they don't. I think Drew plays every game. We need for him to break out. Does anyone know if he is streaky like JD? JD would get white hot when he was locked in.

 

He is not a 4 for 41 hitter - so law of averages kicks in here. He had hot streaks during the season for what its worth.

[User Name]

Bogaerts is hitting the ball right on the nose. A lot of his outs have been screaming liners. He needs to start.

[Behindenemylines]

He is not a 4 for 41 hitter - so law of averages kicks in here. He had hot streaks during the season for what its worth.

 

Drew looks like a hitter that does not have a clue right know. That gives the Cards back to back sure outs at 8 and 9. I think you have to think long and hard about not starting him in game 4. This game has the makings of being a high scoring game with Buchholtz's issues and the weakest of the Cards starters. I think you go with what you think is your most offensive lineup. Plus a one game sit down might do Drew some good.

[sk7326]

Drew looks like a hitter that does not have a clue right know. That gives the Cards back to back sure outs at 8 and 9. I think you have to think long and hard about not starting him in game 4. This game has the makings of being a high scoring game with Buchholtz's issues and the weakest of the Cards starters. I think you go with what you think is your most offensive lineup. Plus a one game sit down might do Drew some good.

 

Drew has been superb defensively - and the Red Sox just finished giving up 8 runs in 3 games in Saint Louis. They mashed their way into the playoffs - but run prevention has gotten them to the precipice here.

[SoxSport]

Veterans can make a difference in the World Series. You go with them. Look at the difference Ross has made. Drew is a steady hand at SS. Papi playing 1B like a lot of people know he can do. You go down the lineup, all gritty veterans. Except for one kid, Bogaerts, who is playing like a veteran.

[User Name]

Thank you, captain obvious!

[sk7326]

What it really has been - is that this team, which mashed the entire season ... has shown the versatility to lean on their run prevention, and beat two (and perhaps three) primo run prevention teams at their own game.

[Dojji]

Indeed, and Drew is a pretty big part of that.

 

The thing with Drew is that it's easy to dismiss him as pretty good rather than really standing out in any one aspect, without paying much attention to the fact that he's pretty good at *everything all at once.* A conventional 5 tool shortstop he isn't, but he hits well enough for an "offensive" shortstop, good average, decent pop, and the glove has definitely been there when needed, and while he's not a prolific base stealer, he has great timing and doesn't get his ass thrown out. Even his plate discipline is more than sufficient compared to the positional average. So yeah, his best skillset is above average, but so is his worst. That combination is rare.

 

It's easy to take that pretty-good-at-everything guy for granted, but the 9 years this franchise has gotten to "enjoy" at shortstop between OCab and Drew should have convinced everyone how hard it is to find the guy who does everything at a sufficient level and doesn't bring some major drawbacks to the game. Bogaerts or no, I'd absolutely love to bring Drew back if I thought he'd stay.

Edited October 29, 2013 by Dojji

[msubulldogs21]

Bogaerts or no, I'd absolutely love to bring Drew back if I thought he'd stay.

 

Despite the recent slumping Drew is a very solid SS. Don't think he's coming back though. Someone will give him a 2 or 3 year deal.

[marklmw]

Despite the recent slumping Drew is a very solid SS. Don't think he's coming back though. Someone will give him a 2 or 3 year deal.

When the Sox come away with a WS title and a Top Draft Pick at the same time the Drew contract for 2013 will be called a complete success.

[sk7326]

Despite the recent slumping Drew is a very solid SS. Don't think he's coming back though. Someone will give him a 2 or 3 year deal.

 

Like that team that has to run out Pete Kozma and pretend his scappiness makes up for it.

[Dojji]

Or the two New york teams, both of which objectively have a reason to go looking for a top shortstop this offseason.