Shane Victornio? If So Cherington Must Go!

[jacksonianmarch]

I am not sure what kind of moves they are going to do on the pitching front. Their best chance is to upgrade via FA, but the two big options present a large amount of risk due to emotional and physical ailments of years past. The caliber of pitcher needed for the sox will come at such an unreasonable price that they would likely balk at it anyway. Think about this, James Shields was just offered to the Royals for Wil Myers plus another top prospect. Myers is one of the best prospects in baseball, I am shocked that a 30 yr old, pricey starter with only 2 yrs of control would cost that much. If you want to get someone on their level, you're looking at a major haul

[Designated Hater]

Biggest decline in OPS last year in the NL? Shane Victorino. Hands down, this guy is overrated and overpaid.

 

Ben is an idiot and he needs to be fired.

 

Oh...one last point: biggest decline in OPS last year in the AL? Napolli. Good luck Red Sox. At least you have Ortiz to put on the front of your 2013 schedules for the idiots that pay to be members of Red Sox "Nation".

[jacksonianmarch]

DH, if both Napoli and Victorino crash and burn this yr, there will be another savior marching in under LL's thumb. I highly doubt these guys are unilateral GM moves, but they are being made to look like they are

[onlybereaved]

Biggest decline in OPS last year in the NL? Shane Victorino. Hands down, this guy is overrated and overpaid.

 

Ben is an idiot and he needs to be fired.

 

Oh...one last point: biggest decline in OPS last year in the AL? Napolli. Good luck Red Sox. At least you have Ortiz to put on the front of your 2013 schedules for the idiots that pay to be members of Red Sox "Nation".

 

Tell us how you really feel.

 

Honestly, for all we know Victorino and Napolli could do well for us and both have solid seasons/good numbers.

 

8/10 people last season were humming the same tune as you regarding Cody Ross, and he had a really good year (especially compared to his talksox.com projections from haters sounding like you do now)

 

If we move Elsbury and get something worthwhile for him, we should be heading in the right direction

[Lord Snow]

While I wouldn't have signed Napoli. 3-years $39M isn't the worst contract.

 

I figured he was worth about 3-years $30-33M so giving him an extra $6M is 'ok'.

 

I think he will give the Sox an .800+ OPS. That is my hope anyway. And if he can do that he is worthy of spot in the line-up. Don't know that I want him hitting 3 or 4 though.

[User Name]

While I wouldn't have signed Napoli. 3-years $39M isn't the worst contract.

 

I figured he was worth about 3-years $30-33M so giving him an extra $6M is 'ok'.

 

I think he will give the Sox an .800+ OPS. That is my hope anyway. And if he can do that he is worthy of spot in the line-up. Don't know that I want him hitting 3 or 4 though.

 

It's very unlikely he hits three or four right now. The Victorino signing pretty much assures a shift from the two to the three spot for Pedroia, with Ortiz hitting fourth.

[Lord Snow]

So much of what you said here is wrong/weird/nonsensical.

 

You have no confidence in anyone aside from Pedroia, but at the same time the Red Sox are just a "few pieces" away from competing in 2013?

 

I would have liked to get Hamilton and Swisher, I hear you...but for all we know, those guys didn't even want to come to Boston. Keep that in mind. We may have gotten "Meh" players for reasons that don't make sense to you if you don't know the future plans/big picture, which none of us do entirely.

 

You're right about the starting pitching - We need a miracle there, and I think everyone here agrees. Red Sox are aware of it and will hopefully make some sort of moves to get something done in that department.

 

Nonsensical? How? The Sox are a few pieces away. But those are significant pieces.

 

I would have a lot of faith in a line-up of:

 

1. Ellsbury - cf

2. Pedroia - 2b

3. Hamilton - lf

4. Swisher - rf

5. Ortiz - dh

6. Middlebrooks - 3b

7. Ichiro/Cody Ross - rf

8. Salty - c

9. Iglesias - SS

 

and a rotation of:

 

1. Johan Santana

2. Clay Buchholz

3. Jon Lester

4. Dan Haren

5. Felix Doubront

 

In fact, I think that rotation would have been a cause for optimism. Santana is overpriced, but he produced when healthy last year and his arm is okay which is important. Haren, definitely some concern there but he had a strong finish to 2012, which is why I wanted him so badly.

[lospunchados]

Tell us how you really feel.

 

Honestly, for all we know Victorino and Napolli could do well for us and both have solid seasons/good numbers.

 

8/10 people last season were humming the same tune as you regarding Cody Ross, and he had a really good year (especially compared to his talksox.com projections from haters sounding like you do now)

 

If we move Elsbury and get something worthwhile for him, we should be heading in the right direction

 

Great point about Ross. He had an off year before we signed him. We usually are a buy low team. Pretty sure we had a number of guys on the 2004 team like that. They had off years or never really had reached their potential so we took adveantage of that. Now both Napoli and Victorino signed for a good chunk of money, but both would have got more money and years if they were free agents the year before. The Redsox have done this lots in the past with guys like Ross, Damon,Beltre

 

We only got Ross as cheap as we did because nobody wanted him last year, he signed 3 weeks before spring training started.

 

As for someone saying that Victorino and Napoli had the biggest ops drops in baseball, that is true. That also doesn't account for the fact that, if Napoli had enough plate appearances to qualify, the season before he would have had the 150th best single season slugging percentage of all time.

 

Napoli last year, in a terrible year still had an above league average obp and was ranked 11th in slugging percentage amongst 1st basemen ( 4th for catchers).

 

Victorino despite a terrible year still was at league average for obp and stole 39 bases. He also is a very smart base stealer with a career 82% average.

 

If you really want to complain, complain that the sox added two hitters that will probably strikeout 25-30% of there at bats this year (Napoli and Gomes)

[User Name]

Nonsensical? How? The Sox are a few pieces away. But those are significant pieces.

 

I would have a lot of faith in a line-up of:

 

1. Ellsbury - cf

2. Pedroia - 2b

3. Hamilton - lf

4. Swisher - rf

5. Ortiz - dh

6. Middlebrooks - 3b

7. Ichiro/Cody Ross - rf

8. Salty - c

9. Iglesias - SS

 

and a rotation of:

 

1. Johan Santana

2. Clay Buchholz

3. Jon Lester

4. Dan Haren

5. Felix Doubront

 

In fact, I think that rotation would have been a cause for optimism. Santana is overpriced, but he produced when healthy last year and his arm is okay which is important. Haren, definitely some concern there but he had a strong finish to 2012, which is why I wanted him so badly.

 

The Red Sox don't have nearly enough money to make your plan work and stay under LT. What are you smoking?

[lospunchados]

The Red Sox don't have nearly enough money to make your plan work and stay under LT. What are you smoking?

 

Yep, i agree. And who is taking lackey off our hands in all this?

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox don't have nearly enough money to make your plan work and stay under LT. What are you smoking?

 

Didn't Haren sign with WSH?

[Lord Snow]

The Red Sox don't have nearly enough money to make your plan work and stay under LT. What are you smoking?

 

Why not?

 

Santana $25.5M

Hamilton (est $25M)

Haren $13M

Nick Swisher (est $15M)

Ichiro (est $8M)

 

$86.5M and that is being generous on those estimates for Hamilton, Swisher, and Ichiro and assuming the Mets wouldn't kick money in for a Santana deal (which it sounds like they're willing to do). That would put payroll at about $172M. Luxury tax is $178M. That's under.

[BSN07]

Why not?

 

Santana $25.5M

Hamilton (est $25M)

Haren $13M

Nick Swisher (est $15M)

Ichiro (est $8M)

 

$86.5M and that is being generous on those estimates for Hamilton, Swisher, and Ichiro and assuming the Mets wouldn't kick money in for a Santana deal (which it sounds like they're willing to do). That would put payroll at about $172M. Luxury tax is $178M. That's under.

 

Haren signed with the Nats Lord, get a clue.

[Lord Snow]

Didn't Haren sign with WSH?

 

Yeah. He did. Because BC was asleep, I guess. Same thing with Ervin Santana being traded to KC for junk. BC was sleeping then too.

 

I guess he thinks John Lackey, Felix Doubront, and Franklin Morales are going to combine for 45 wins next season.

[Lord Snow]

Haren signed with the Nats Lord, get a clue.

 

Obviously my math doesn't work with the moves that have already been made.

 

Too much money has been pissed away on Victornio and Gomes. We are handcuffed nearly $20M on those two fools for the next two years. Two bench players. Makes me disgusted to be a Sox fan.

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously my math doesn't work with the moves that have already been made.

 

Too much money has been pissed away on Victornio and Gomes. We are handcuffed nearly $20M on those two fools for the next two years. Two bench players. Makes me disgusted to be a Sox fan.

 

Lighten up man, seriously. Short term deals. Cherington is holding on to our prospects.

[seabeachfred]

1-year $13M was just too practical for Cherington. Plus he needed that extra $13M to tack on another undeserved year for Shane Victorino! Cherington was quoted as saying that he would have liked to sign Haren if only he could serve as a 5th catcher or be a bat off the bench/late inning defensive replacement.

 

LS, I can understand your concern about the Victorino signing. I have concerns too especially since he didn't look good after he was traded to the Dodgers this past summer. He hit too many grounders to second from the left side and too many short flies to left from the right. However, I have learned from people here and on another board that he had a bad hand injury that bothered him most of the season and just the fact that he didn't weasel out of the lineup or spend his time mending the rest of the season like some OF I know tells me he is a gamer. There are also some other things to keep in mind.

 

1. He flourished in Philly, a tougher place to play than Boston.

2. He has always been a gamer and stays on the field and leaves it all on there.

3. The Guardians were hot on his tail and were offering a four year contract at $44 million.

4. There were at least two other teams also making a move for him.

5. He is a good teammate and clubhouse person and his old friends on the Phillies loved him for his competiveness and dirt dog mentality.

 

What say we give this a chance to work. Sure I had questions but something tells me he is going to be a helluva lot better than some of the people we ran out there the last two months of this season.

[jung]

I guess if you could tell me how else you free up Ells or tell me what trading chips the Sox have without using Ells to get a real legit starting pitcher for more time than a cup of coffee for the rotation then I would argue that Victorino was probably not such a good idea either. But I really don't know how else they get somebody real in here. Now if they don't do that now or later in the year.....I will not be a happy camper cause this never ending cycle of Sox teams that can batter walls but can't pitch their way out of a paper bag just gets tiresome.

[Laser Show]

There's some epic dumbassery going on around here.

[BSN07]

Stop entertaining him. He's obviously a troll

[Lord Snow]

Hypothetically,

 

Lets say the Red Sox could trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a starting pitcher. Who could they get? A #2 or a #3? It's not like they're going to be able to trade him for Felix Hernandez as they may have been able to at this time last year when he was coming off an MVP runner-up campaign.

 

If Ellsbury gets traded for somebody like Matt Harrison, or Jason Vargas are you guys happy with that?

 

I'm not. I just don't see that as a good return.

 

If you could trade Ellsbury and bring back somebody like King Felix I could get behind that. But I don't want to trade Ellsbury so I can watch him have a career year and win the MVP in 2013 meanwhile watch Jason Vargas regress to a 4+ ERA pitcher.

[jung]

Nobody is saying you trade Ells by himself. I don't think a single discussion on the topic has been focused on Ells straight up for anybody. The Sox have chips that they could use around ells and just about nothing that will work without ells.

 

I am a bit more concerned that if they wait till part way through next season that the Sox will necessarily be able to make a better deal than they can before this season starts. The option is hold onto ells until he becomes a FA and then wave goodbye to him. That is not very appealing either.

[Lord Snow]

Nobody is saying you trade Ells by himself. I don't think a single discussion on the topic has been focused on Ells straight up for anybody. The Sox have chips that they could use around ells and just about nothing that will work without ells.

 

I am a bit more concerned that if they wait till part way through next season that the Sox will necessarily be able to make a better deal than they can before this season starts. The option is hold onto ells until he becomes a FA and then wave goodbye to him. That is not very appealing either.

 

Well there is a gamble involved.

 

I wouldn't want to move Ellsbury until the trading deadline. If the Sox are fading out of contention by the deadline, and Ellsbury has reestablished his MVP value the Sox could presumably trade him for an organization's top 3-5 prospects. Which is probably a much better haul than the Sox can deal him for this offseason. But that raises another question. If Ellsbury does reestablish his MVP value wouldn't you want him to stay in a Boston uniform for the next 7-8 years?

[jung]

Not at Boras prices and there is no way I would go 7-8 years on a guy that spends as much time on the DL as Ells does. Sure much is due to freak train wrecks but Ells has to many, gets damaged to severely and takes to long to come back from them. Plus everything has to be perfect physically for Ells to produce numbers that are really attractive. I don't think his natural power is all that impressive. If his swing is perfect and he makes perfect contact he drives the ball.

 

At any rate somebody will be convinced to end up north of $16M per for several years and I am just not that interested in Ells for that kinda' money. Plus the Sox need for pitching is severe. Gotta' give something to get something. Not sure waiting till midseason will be all that effective in this case. What team in the hunt for the post season is going to give up pitching. If a team is not in the hunt at that point why would they be looking to give more than they should in a deal that includes Ells?

 

Might end up with a better deal now when there are more teams that think they have a shot.

[Laser Show]

Well there is a gamble involved.

 

I wouldn't want to move Ellsbury until the trading deadline. If the Sox are fading out of contention by the deadline, and Ellsbury has reestablished his MVP value the Sox could presumably trade him for an organization's top 3-5 prospects. Which is probably a much better haul than the Sox can deal him for this offseason. But that raises another question. If Ellsbury does reestablish his MVP value wouldn't you want him to stay in a Boston uniform for the next 7-8 years?

 

Not for $20+MM a year, which is what Boras will get him if he stays healthy and performs. The only 2 options we should be considering are trading him now or trading him at the deadline, and I'm leaning towards now, because of what Jung said.

[seabeachfred]

Ellsbury is a major chip we have for procuring a good pitcher but not just by himself. It will take a catcher and a very decent prospect to bring this about because every team knows we need pitching and good pitchers are expensive on the trading market as well as FA. If we wait to trade Ellsbury later in the season the chances are at least 50-50 that he is going to be on the disabled list and we couldn't get a good bag of balls for him. He is a terrific talent but he is brittle and as one person said on this board, HE NEEDS TO GROW A PAIR. He has become a real candy ass taking eons to heal from his injuries. Now is the time to package him in a trade if we really want to make a challenge for a playoff spot next season in my honest opinion.

[NZSox]

I know a lot of people have expressed concern over Shane's production and whether he can be effective going forward, but after watching his press conference it's clear we got an outstanding clubhouse guy. Seems a top guy and a real personality, so if he can get at least some way back to his best I think he'll be a good addition overall.

[Lord Snow]

I know a lot of people have expressed concern over Shane's production and whether he can be effective going forward, but after watching his press conference it's clear we got an outstanding clubhouse guy. Seems a top guy and a real personality, so if he can get at least some way back to his best I think he'll be a good addition overall.

 

My problem with the Victorino signing, and I'm sure a lot of the fans share in this sentiment, is that we sucked last year. We lost talent so, as a fan, you spend all off-season waiting for the front office to make an impact move that will put the team back into contention and you see Shane Victorino get signed, Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, David Ross, and Koji Uehara signed instead.

 

Those guys would be fine adds if you had holes 6-9 in the line-up. But we've got holes 3, 4, and 5.

 

We've got one of the worst rotations in the major leagues. Ryan Dempster does little to help it. I'm looking forward and trying to make realistic projections. Best case out of Lackey & Dempster I see sub-4.5 ERAs and 200 inning each. Do the Sox make the playoffs if that happens? I don't think so. Do you?

 

Where is the beef?

[seabeachfred]

My problem with the Victorino signing, and I'm sure a lot of the fans share in this sentiment, is that we sucked last year. We lost talent so, as a fan, you spend all off-season waiting for the front office to make an impact move that will put the team back into contention and you see Shane Victorino get signed, Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, David Ross, and Koji Uehara signed instead.

 

Those guys would be fine adds if you had holes 6-9 in the line-up. But we've got holes 3, 4, and 5.

 

We've got one of the worst rotations in the major leagues. Ryan Dempster does little to help it. I'm looking forward and trying to make realistic projections. Best case out of Lackey & Dempster I see sub-4.5 ERAs and 200 inning each. Do the Sox make the playoffs if that happens? I don't think so. Do you?

 

Where is the beef?

 

Well we will just have to see LS. There is beef but a lot of it my be marbled fat. Time will tell and that's the best I can do for you, me and the rest of the crew here. Unless the inept Cherington swings a major trade for a top notch pitcher this is the crew we're going into the season with. Pray for two things. One that Lester and Buchholz finally pitch as a top winning tandem and that someone at Pawtucket develops fast and is ready to help us by the summer, and that goes for Lackey, Doubrant and Dempster.

[Red Foreman]

Not at Boras prices and there is no way I would go 7-8 years on a guy that spends as much time on the DL as Ells does. Sure much is due to freak train wrecks but Ells has to many, gets damaged to severely and takes to long to come back from them. Plus everything has to be perfect physically for Ells to produce numbers that are really attractive. I don't think his natural power is all that impressive. If his swing is perfect and he makes perfect contact he drives the ball.

 

At any rate somebody will be convinced to end up north of $16M per for several years and I am just not that interested in Ells for that kinda' money. Plus the Sox need for pitching is severe. Gotta' give something to get something. Not sure waiting till midseason will be all that effective in this case. What team in the hunt for the post season is going to give up pitching. If a team is not in the hunt at that point why would they be looking to give more than they should in a deal that includes Ells?

 

Might end up with a better deal now when there are more teams that think they have a shot.

 

$16M for several years of Jacoby is a steal compared to $13M for several years of the Flyin' Hawaiian.