Red Sox 2012 Spring Training Thread.

[SoxSport]

Well I was surprised to hear Cafardo's comments on Iggy today mainly because he was so much in agreement with things that many of us have been saying for weeks. I think Cafardo actually knows what he is talking about whereas I am often just shooting my mouth off based on what I am seeing or at least think I am seeing.

 

At any rate Cafardo is mystified with the Sox and their historical inability to come to terms with SS as a plus defensive position. This is something that I have talked about for weeks now so I won't belabor the point more than I have.

 

The key point is that this is going to be a pitching staff desperately looking for help in the field this year. When said pitching staff found to many bats with to many balls last year there was little to no help from the defense behind them and things went from bad to worse as to many struck baseballs were either booted in the field or were picked up but thrown poorly or to the wrong base. All kinds of s*** happened to that defense once bats started finding balls later in the season.

 

Now Youk is one year older and his range has continued in decline in recent years. I expect his range to be marginally worse this year than it was last and I don't expect him to play more than 120 games either. Aviles will have to pick up the remaining games at third which brings Punto in to play SS. There is a plus bat for you.

 

On the subject of batting and Iggy (and here is where Cafardo being there all spring and knowing what he is doing helps) Cafardo comments that Iggy has only struck out 3 times in 25 at bats so in Cafardo's view it is not like the kid is embarrassing himself out there. His view is that Iggy is holding his own at the plate given where he has been and is such a plus defender that he should be the Sox starting SS. I agree and hope that we see Iggy back sooner rather than later.

 

Yeah, that's my view after watching him for a few at bats in games--when he made solid contact. He looks like a pretty strong kid. And he can run, too. .

 

I of course totally agree with the reasoning about defense.His defense will make him a .300 hitter in runs prevented--no matter what he does at the plate. I think there's a power squeeze going on with the FO, and Lucchino is trying to satisfy everybody--to the detriment of the Red Sox. Trying to portray the kid as a weak hitter who needs more seasoning-- with his kind of glove is a bunch of BS. They also did this with Kalish last year, and he got himself hurt in Pawtucket, and lost a season of his career. It's called mismanagement.

[User Name]

They also did this with Kalish last year' date=' and he got himself hurt in Pawtucket, and lost a season of his career. It's called mismanagement.[/quote']

 

Kalish was blocked by the incumbent JD Drew, who no one could have expected to fall off such a steep cliff. Kalish was next in line but he got hurt. This line of reasoning makes no sense.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Just simmed the entire season on MLB 12 The Show. Here are the results.

 

AL East:

Red Sox 96-66

Yankees *WC* 94-68

Rays 88-74

 

AL Central:

Guardians: 102-60

Tigers: 92-70

 

AL West:

Rangers: 107-55

Angels: 92-70

 

This game doesn't have the 2 WC's but if it did, it would have been the Rangers and Angels fighting out for the 2nd slot.

 

Red Sox Stats:

 

Ortiz had 39 HR. Gonzo had 33 HR. Ells had 32 HR. Pedroia had 26 HR, 114 RBI (I had him in the 3 slot). Crawford sucked, .247 with a .735 OPS.

 

Pitching:

 

Lester: 13-5, 3.18 ERA

Beckett - 15-9, 3.63 ERA

Buchholz: 10-5, 3.76 ERA

Bard: 12-9, 4.59 ERA

Miller: 10-7, 5.86 ERA

Doubront: 7-9, 5.22 ERA (They have Doubront rated very poorly in this game)

 

Aceves: 3.44 ERA

Bailey: 2.21 ERA, 50 Saves, 8 Blown Saves

Melancon: 3.61 ERA

Morales: 2.50 ERA

 

A lot of the numbers are pretty true to form (Beck, Buch, Lester, even Bard), some are way off (Doubront, Ortiz HR total, Crawford).

 

Regardless, that's the simmed season.

 

EDIT: For what it's worth, I simmed the 1st month with Crawford out of the lineup. Also, Buchholz only had 26 starts because of an injury.

[a700hitter]

Just simmed the entire season on MLB 12 The Show. Here are the results.

 

AL East:

Red Sox 96-66

Yankees *WC* 94-68

Rays 88-74

 

AL Central:

Guardians: 102-60

Tigers: 92-70

 

AL West:

Rangers: 107-55

Angels: 92-70

 

This game doesn't have the 2 WC's but if it did, it would have been the Rangers and Angels fighting out for the 2nd slot.

 

Red Sox Stats:

 

Ortiz had 39 HR. Gonzo had 33 HR. Ells had 32 HR. Pedroia had 26 HR, 114 RBI (I had him in the 3 slot). Crawford sucked, .247 with a .735 OPS.

 

Pitching:

 

Lester: 13-5, 3.18 ERA

Beckett - 15-9, 3.63 ERA

Buchholz: 10-5, 3.76 ERA

Bard: 12-9, 4.59 ERA

Miller: 10-7, 5.86 ERA

Doubront: 7-9, 5.22 ERA (They have Doubront rated very poorly in this game)

 

Aceves: 3.44 ERA

Bailey: 2.21 ERA, 50 Saves, 8 Blown Saves

Melancon: 3.61 ERA

Morales: 2.50 ERA

 

A lot of the numbers are pretty true to form (Beck, Buch, Lester, even Bard), some are way off (Doubront, Ortiz HR total, Crawford).

 

Regardless, that's the simmed season.

 

EDIT: For what it's worth, I simmed the 1st month with Crawford out of the lineup. Also, Buchholz only had 26 starts because of an injury.

Did Dice K pitch?

[jung]

The only problem with simming the season is that as usual the Sox have the best lineup 1-8 of anybody in the AL and as good a 1,2,3 taken as a group in the rotation.

 

That has not been the Achilles Heel of the Sox these past few seasons. The Achilles Heel of this team is what happens when injuries and fatigue start to impact 1-8 and any part of 1,2,3 in the rotation as there is rarely much of import behind them. Nice touch holding Crawford out and only giving Buch 26 starts though.

 

 

By the way, I am so tired of hearing media personalities and talk radio call-ins commenting that "Geez what is the problem with the FO? If Iggy just bats 245-250 with that glove we are golden." What a meaningless comment. Boy that would take some real guts wouldn't it? Iggy sporting a 245 average with that glove is a gutless no brainer. I want Iggy up and I don't need to see 245 to want him up.

 

I suspect that the supporting cast is a bit improved this year as long as the staff can get through the first half without dice and as long as they smarten up and bring Iggy back once the infield starts coming up with the usual assortment of hamstrings and various and sundry other injuries.

 

They look to have more outfield help this year than they had last year as well although defensively it is not much of an outfield, not with those arms. If Aviles subbed in the outfield he would immediately have the best outfield arm on the team by a mile.

[redsoxfan3]

Bobby V knows the starting 5 and it will be announced tomorrow. I think it is safe to assume that Bard and Doubront will round out the rotation. I am also not counting out Cook at this point.

[Spudboy]

Bobby V knows the starting 5 and it will be announced tomorrow. I think it is safe to assume that Bard and Doubront will round out the rotation. I am also not counting out Cook at this point.

 

And it's good that Cook can spend some time in Pawtucket building up his arm strength and demonstrating worth.

 

I assume he can be assigned to a minor league team? I hope so. He is the kind of depth that UN spoke of a while ago.

 

f***! I can't wait for the season to start!:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

[redsoxfan3]

And it's good that Cook can spend some time in Pawtucket building up his arm strength and demonstrating worth.

 

I assume he can be assigned to a minor league team? I hope so. He is the kind of depth that UN spoke of a while ago.

 

f***! I can't wait for the season to start!:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

 

Yeah, he can be. He more than likely will be assigned to Pawtucket. His contract is a minor league one. He can also opt out of his conract by May 1st if he is not on the big league roster. He adds insurance to our rotation at this point. At least Cook can become a decent depth option for us. I am not sure about Miller. I am just glad that we have Cook that has been pitching decent and then Dice-K may be back as early as June.

[jung]

Boy McDonald sure seems to have made progress. He is part of the reason why I think the Sox are improved in the supporting cast for 1-8. Hoping Spears gets the same sort of chance with the same sort of impact on his game at least at some point this season.

 

On a more sobering note, Geez I hate the Rays pitching staff. They seem to have an abundance of pitchers with good location and great stuff. Hate them!!!!!!!!!

 

That said, they are a good example for how important pitching is even in the contemporary game where we might be even more focused on hitting than we were in the past. I get the feeling though that the entirety of MLB is in denial with regard to the effect that the use of steroids had on offensive numbers for the period of time that they were to some extent allowed/ignored. I for one have little doubt that while pitching was always important, we will see teams with solid pitching and sound defense more successful than they were in the recent past.

 

Brings backs memories for the amount of pub the so called "juiced" baseball got and the corked bat. I suspect that in retrospect, those were smoke screens intentional or not for what was really going on.

 

Sure the number of pitchers we "think" were using steroids during that era is notable but it seemed to me that it had a different impact for pitchers, prolonging careers that should have ended because there velocity was going to drop off or their bodies were just breaking down. However there is just so much that muscle will do for a pitcher.

 

I also think that the Saber fans have been left struggling with how to improve matrices that accurately reflect the importance of defense to run prevention. Should be fun to see the result of those efforts.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Boy McDonald sure seems to have made progress. He is part of the reason why I think the Sox are improved in the supporting cast for 1-8. Hoping Spears gets the same sort of chance with the same sort of impact on his game at least at some point this season.

 

On a more sobering note, Geez I hate the Rays pitching staff. They seem to have an abundance of pitchers with good location and great stuff. Hate them!!!!!!!!!

 

That said, they are a good example for how important pitching is even in the contemporary game where we might be even more focused on hitting than we were in the past. I get the feeling though that the entirety of MLB is in denial with regard to the effect that the use of steroids had on offensive numbers for the period of time that they were to some extent allowed/ignored. I for one have little doubt that while pitching was always important, we will see teams with solid pitching and sound defense more successful than they were in the recent past.

 

Brings backs memories for the amount of pub the so called "juiced" baseball got and the corked bat. I suspect that in retrospect, those were smoke screens intentional or not for what was really going on.

 

Sure the number of pitchers we "think" were using steroids during that era is notable but it seemed to me that it had a different impact for pitchers, prolonging careers that should have ended because there velocity was going to drop off or their bodies were just breaking down. However there is just so much that muscle will do for a pitcher.

 

I also think that the Saber fans have been left struggling with how to improve matrices that accurately reflect the importance of defense to run prevention. Should be fun to see the result of those efforts.

 

Valentine will have a lot more success against the Rays than Francona did. Francona always, always, always waited for the 3 run HR. Against the Rays, they have such a lowly offense that if you manufacture a few runs you're in good shape. That's where Valentine will be so valuable - in games like those vs TB where we get a man on 1st and he'll go 1st to 3rd on a hit, or swipe 2nd and bunt over to 3rd, etc.

[seabeachfred]

Valentine will have a lot more success against the Rays than Francona did. Francona always' date=' always, always waited for the 3 run HR. Against the Rays, they have such a lowly offense that if you manufacture a few runs you're in good shape. That's where Valentine will be so valuable - in games like those vs TB where we get a man on 1st and he'll go 1st to 3rd on a hit, or swipe 2nd and bunt over to 3rd, etc.[/quote']

 

It should work out that way Forsyth if our team plays up to its capabilities. I, like you, always thought that having Francona in the dugout gave the opposition a two run edge right off the bat. He never moved the runners, disdained the bunt, stole most reluctantly, and was so predictable that the opposition only had to concentrate on the batter until he hit a rally killing double play to him. Thank God Francona is gone and I think he is going to have a hard time getting another managing job in the near future. When he lost the team in the clubhouse his ineptness in the strategy department became ever more glaring.

[jung]

I will be interested to see how much regular season batting practice time V devotes to moving runners, bunting etc. While it helps to do these things in ST if it is the 130th game of the season and you have not even tried to lay down a bunt since ST, good luck getting one down at that point. The few occasions that the Sox tried to lay down a bunt last year were embarrassments. My God I can't remember which one it was because I think I closed eyes as soon as it happened but one of them almost got hit in the head trying to lay down a bunt and I don't mean because the pitch was high and tight!

[seabeachfred]

I will be interested to see how much regular season batting practice time V devotes to moving runners' date=' bunting etc. While it helps to do these things in ST if it is the 130th game of the season and you have not even tried to lay down a bunt since ST, good luck getting one down at that point. The few occasions that the Sox tried to lay down a bunt last year were embarrassments. My God I can't remember which one it was because I think I closed eyes as soon as it happened but one of them almost got hit in the head trying to lay down a bunt and I don't mean because the pitch was high and tight![/quote']

 

Point well taken Jung and I'm right there with you on that. Of course, I do believe that BV will do these things when the season begins, maybe not to excess but he will keep the opposition on their guard as much as he can. It used to irritate me when writers asked Francona about moving runners and using the bunt, he would always say "we don't do that here". No we didn't and it showed in close games. I would think that Tito would keep his fingers crossed and hope that if he does get another managing job it would in the AL where the DH might limit opportunities to play for one run much more than in the NL which bats the pitcher. If he gets an NL job and plays the way he played it in Boston he will be through ever managing again.

[FredLynn]

Valentine will have a lot more success against the Rays than Francona did. Francona always' date=' always, always waited for the 3 run HR. Against the Rays, they have such a lowly offense that if you manufacture a few runs you're in good shape. That's where Valentine will be so valuable - in games like those vs TB where we get a man on 1st and he'll go 1st to 3rd on a hit, or swipe 2nd and bunt over to 3rd, etc.[/quote']

 

I don't think many people are of the belief that Francona is in the same league as Valentine as a tactician. During the game it doesn't matter that players like you, only that they give 100% out there. Valentine will demand that of his team all the time. He will be able to compete with Maddon on a much more level playing field than Francona ever could. The only question is whether we have the talent level to make a real run at the Rays this year. Most of the predictions I have seen have us in third place, no playoffs. I think thats a fair assessment, but if we get lucky with Bard and Doubront and with the health of our guys, we could compete for the postseason successfully. Whatever happen, it should make for an interesting season.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I don't think many people are of the belief that Francona is in the same league as Valentine as a tactician. During the game it doesn't matter that players like you' date=' only that they give 100% out there. Valentine will demand that of his team all the time. He will be able to compete with Maddon on a much more level playing field than Francona ever could. [b']The only question is whether we have the talent level to make a real run at the Rays this year. [/b]Most of the predictions I have seen have us in third place, no playoffs. I think thats a fair assessment, but if we get lucky with Bard and Doubront and with the health of our guys, we could compete for the postseason successfully. Whatever happen, it should make for an interesting season.

 

I disagree completely about this part (the rest I agree with). I think this team may be the most talented in all of baseball to be honest.

 

The question is health and durability. If we finally have a season that isn't riddled by injuries, this team is a no doubt PS team. Think about how well this team played from April - August. 30 games over .500 on September 1. That's insane. A 100 game win pace.

 

But injuries and fatigue finally caught up to this team. One thing I love hearing - pitchers saying "My legs have never felt this good coming out of Spring Training". I know it's always the obligatory comment to say "I've never been in better shape", but actually specifying a part of the body that feels so good, especially a part as vital to a pitcher as the legs, that's pretty meaningful.

 

If this team, this season, has a season with new medical staff, new conditioning staff, and a new manager, where they play the right way, and physically, more goes right than wrong, they are a 95+ win team.

 

Also, sidenote - I think FINALLY we have a coach who can go toe to toe with bullpen management. We finally have a coach who isn't too lazy to go change pitchers once the matchups have come out of our favor. When the Rays come up L L R R S, and we have Rich Hill out there to start the inning, lets up a single or a walk, Valentine will actually pull him once the RHH come up. Francona would just roll the dice. I always hated that.

 

Maddon wins a lot, lot, lot of games by bullpen management. I have a feeling Valentine will do the same.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The only problem with simming the season is that as usual the Sox have the best lineup 1-8 of anybody in the AL and as good a 1,2,3 taken as a group in the rotation.

 

That has not been the Achilles Heel of the Sox these past few seasons. The Achilles Heel of this team is what happens when injuries and fatigue start to impact 1-8 and any part of 1,2,3 in the rotation as there is rarely much of import behind them. Nice touch holding Crawford out and only giving Buch 26 starts though.

 

 

By the way, I am so tired of hearing media personalities and talk radio call-ins commenting that "Geez what is the problem with the FO? If Iggy just bats 245-250 with that glove we are golden." What a meaningless comment. Boy that would take some real guts wouldn't it? Iggy sporting a 245 average with that glove is a gutless no brainer. I want Iggy up and I don't need to see 245 to want him up.

 

I suspect that the supporting cast is a bit improved this year as long as the staff can get through the first half without dice and as long as they smarten up and bring Iggy back once the infield starts coming up with the usual assortment of hamstrings and various and sundry other injuries.

 

They look to have more outfield help this year than they had last year as well although defensively it is not much of an outfield, not with those arms. If Aviles subbed in the outfield he would immediately have the best outfield arm on the team by a mile.

 

In the sim, Lester and Buchholz both spent significant time (2-3 months) on the DL.

[jung]

Where are the other pitching decisions coming from then? The starters in the sim are only accounting for 111 decisions out of 162 games and 67 of 96 wins. That makes the cast of pitching extras whether from the pen or elsewhere 29-22. That would seem a pretty optimistic outcome I would think.

 

Oh well, it is a sim after all.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Where are the other pitching decisions coming from then? The starters in the sim are only accounting for 111 decisions out of 162 games and 67 of 96 wins. That makes the cast of pitching extras whether from the pen or elsewhere 29-22. That would seem a pretty optimistic outcome I would think.

 

Oh well, it is a sim after all.

 

I've since deleted it, so I'm not sure. I think Andrew Miller had a few starts to a 5.70 ERA as well and maybe like 4-5 wins, bullpen probably had about 20-25 wins, so that's my guess. I didn't look at it enough to really get to know it. Just kind of simmed it and then looked and then deleted it.

[jung]

Sorry my fault....I should have been more specific. I counted everybody in your top list of six as a starter figuring you were giving Miller some starts so he is in the 111 decisions. That list of six guys got 111 decisions and 67 of the 96 total wins. With Miller already accounted for I guess that means the pen simmed at 29-22 which does sound awful optimistic. On the one hand who gives a darn. On the other hand flip that to 22-29 and the Sox don't win the division and probably don't make the playoffs.

 

Anyway it is a sim after all.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The Translator is a recurring feature of the blog where we present what someone said and what (we think) they mean by running his words through our high-tech Truth Detector.

 

Today we present a verbatim exhange between yours truly and Mr. Joe Girardi, the manager of the New York Yankees, on the subject of Michael Pineda's shoulder tendinitis.

 

Me: "Is this the same or similar to Phil Hughes' injury?''

 

Girardi: "No. This is tendinitis in the shoulder. Phil had tendinitis.''

 

Me: "Where?''

 

Girardi: "In the shoulder.''

 

From ESPN New York.

 

Very interesting. If Pineda misses significant time, that rotation looks an awful, awful lot weaker.

[SoxSport]

Pineda is overrated. He's still a kid under development. Probably overpitched last year--he faded the second half and maybe strained his arm.

[jacksonianmarch]

From ESPN New York.

 

Very interesting. If Pineda misses significant time, that rotation looks an awful, awful lot weaker.

 

No structural damage. He's being shut down for 15 days and will be built back up from there. He'll be back.

[Station 13]

Hey GUESS WHAT! Look like Bailey is injured. Didn't pitch as plan yesterday and the sun has risen and set 7 times since the last time he pitch.

[FredLynn]

Source: Bailey bothered by thumb injury

 

 

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- In revealing the Red Sox starting rotation plans for the beginning of the regular season, manager Bobby Valentine Sunday morning hinted that an undisclosed injury in the bullpen affected his decision-making.

 

Though Valentine didn't say so, the issue involves a right thumb injury that has been bothering closer Andrew Bailey, according to a baseball source. Bailey has pitched in a big league game just once in the last 10 days.

 

The last time Bailey pitched, it was in a minor league game, which would seem to indicate that the Sox are contemplating placing him the disabled list to start the season. It's much easier to backdate a player -- placing him on the DL retroactively -- when he hasn't pitched in a major league spring training game in a while.

 

Valentine chose Felix Doubront and Daniel Bard as his fourth and fifth starters respectively, with Alfredo Aceves ticketed for the bullpen, in part because of his versatility and value there.

 

But Valentine said part of the motivation was that he wasn't sure about his back-end relievers.

 

"A little,'' said Valentine. "If I answer that the way I should answer it, you'll be confused because you don't have all the information. But the answer is yes. I think there might be a health situation -- there might be.''

 

Additionally, because of that instability in the back of the bullpen, the 25th spot on the roster -- which Valentine said Saturday would likely go to a position player, may now instead go to a 13th pitcher.

 

Previously, it was believed that Pedro Ciriaco, Nate Spears and Jason Repko were battling for the utility spot.

http://www.csnne.com/baseball-boston-redsox/redsox-talk/Source-Bailey-bothered-by-thumb-injury?blockID=680882&feedID=3352

[mvp 78]

I'd gave Ciriaco a shot as he can play IF and OF. Maybe he ends up producing off the bench and Punto can be DFA's when Iglesias is ready.

[Palodios]

1B - Agon

2B - Pedroia

3B - Youk

SS - Aviles

C - Salty

OF - Ellsbury

OF - Ross

OF - Sweeney

DH - Ortiz

Bench - McDonald

Bench - Shoppach

Bench - Punto

 

SP1) Lester

SP2) Beckett

SP3) Buchholz

SP4) Doubront

SP5) Bard

 

RP) Bailey

RP) Melancon

RP) Aceves

RP) Bowden

RP) Albers

RP) Morales

RP) Padilla

 

Bullpen potentials -- Cook, Atchison, Ohlendorf, Thomas.

 

Notable DL - Kalish/Crawford/Dice-k

Notable Minor Leaguers -- Iggy, Middlebrooks, Lavs, Wilson, Mortensen

 

 

That bullpen looks mighty weak is Bailey gets hurt.

[a700hitter]

That bullpen looks mighty weak is Bailey gets hurt.

It's a so-so pen with Bailey. Without him, it is very weak. There isn't a single major arm in the pen without him. The starters are going to need to go deep into games.

[a700hitter]

This thumb injury to Bailey is turning out to be a chronic thing? Isn't this something he had at the beginning of camp?

[BornToRun]

Eh, Albers was great last year until the tail stretch where I suspect overuse got to him, maybe he can be a decent piece this year. I like last years pen but I think they'll be serviceable.

[BornToRun]

It's a so-so pen with Bailey. Without him' date=' it is very weak. There isn't a single major arm in the pen without him. The starters are going to need to go deep into games.[/quote']

 

Alfredo Aceves called, said you were forgetting someone.