John Lackey to undergo Tommy John surgery

[a700hitter]

Does anybody know if 5/125 is what is being suggested as what it would take for Philadelphia to sign CC. I am presuming that what folks are saying is that Philly is where CC wants to go. Is that correct?

I thought he was already making that with the Yankees.

[Laser Show]

I thought he was already making that with the Yankees.

 

He's getting $23MM AAV (thru the end of the deal) and wants more.

[User Name]

If he's looking for 5/125' date=' he's selling himself short. This is the healthiest pitcher in the major leagues, a true ace, who has proven himself at Yankee Stadium. And is 31 years old. He's a can't-miss guy, but everyone around Talksox seems to think he's going to Philadelphia on a team friendly deal.[/quote']

 

Healthiest? With that build? And a year removed from off-season knee surgery?

 

He's a horse for sure, but the concerns about his durability are there for a reason. If you're looking for healthiest (or more durable, to be more precise), you should be looking the direction of Buehrle, who's not as effective but certainly has a better build and an injury history at least as good.

[a700hitter]

He's getting $23MM AAV (thru the end of the deal) and wants more.

An extra $2 million a year is not going to do the trick. He'll have to pay that to his agent for negotiating the deal.

[jung]

I was sorta' surprised that he put the 25 pounds that he lost after knee surgery back on again. While it is pretty clear that he is more comfortable at around 310....that is a good deal of weight to put on that knee not to mention the general issues that come along with that kinda' weight.

 

To be honest, I would be happy just seeing him leave the AL East as I guess I am actually starting to worry that we are starting to look a little like the RT 95 North version of the Mets. Becoming somebody else's problem that I don't have to face competitively unless we get to the WS is OK by me.

[mvp 78]

Yeah' date=' no.[/quote']

 

Convenient to leave off my rationale. Oswalt and Buehrle will have shorter contracts. I pay big money for the next 2-3 years rather than be locked in with another long term contract.

[User Name]

Convenient to leave off my rationale. Oswalt and Buehrle will have shorter contracts. I pay big money for the next 2-3 years rather than be locked in with another long term contract.

 

This.

 

The guy seems completely against the idea of Buerhle for reasons i cannot comprehend.

[Dojji]

They're not that hard to comprehend. Buehrle is a good pitcher, but he's a slowpitch guy compared to most big leaguers, and the Yankees obliterate him. There's room for finesse pitchers, but his margin for error would be much smaller here than it would be in any other division, and with his relative lack of velocity it's narrow enough to begin with.

 

Oswalt I could get behind. He's always had good stuff and command and I don't think he's too old to bounce back from a relatively down year this year. Buehrle is exactly the kind of very good pitcher that you don't bring into the AL East pressure cooker. Let him mow 'em down in the NL west or the NL Central for the rest of his career and have his shot at the Hall. Because he won't do either here.

[User Name]

Buerhle wouldn't be asked to "mow them down" here. He'd be asked to eat innings as the fifth starter, something the Red Sox sorely lacked last season.

 

A lesson that should be learned from 2011 is that a pitcher who can eat innings is very valuable even if he's not a world-beater.

 

Even if we need to keep him away from the Yankees, he brings two things to the table the Sox need desperately: Good command and the ability to pitch deep into games. For a guy that would be the fifth starter and probably wouldn't make ace money, that's pretty good.

 

Other than that, a guy like Jeremy Guthrie fits the bill, i wonder what his status is.

[Laser Show]

Buehrle can give 200 IP and an ERA around 3.90-4.00 for at least 2-3 more years. I can't see how he wouldn't be a good target. He hasn't pitched under 200 innings in something like 10 years. I see him more as the #3/4 with Buchholz, there's no "flier" needed on him as he is a proven horse.

[User Name]

He wouldn't be a 4.0 ERA starter in Boston though. 4.5 seems more realistic.

[jung]

I like Buehrle to fill a particular need that the Sox have. Does anybody have an idea what it will take because I really don't know. He has been in what would have been considered the high rent district when he signed in 07 or 08, I think. I don't know if he is at the point where the absolute $ are going to be less or if in fact the inflation in pitching contracts means $14M in 07 is bargain money for him in 12. Rare anymore for a guy to get through that many contract years without some sort of renegotiation or something that gets you close to current dollars. Any ideas?

[Emmz]

He wouldn't be a 4.0 ERA starter in Boston though. 4.5 seems more realistic.

 

Eh, still the same value, just inflated for league change, etc.

[User Name]

Similar, but not the same. One of Theo's mistakes was paying for past instead of future performance. You don't pay a pitcher who's going to give you #4 or #5 production #2 money, therefore when evaluating Buehrle the Red Sox need to look at him as what he would be in Fenway instead of what he was at CHW.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

Similar' date=' but not the same. One of Theo's mistakes was paying for past instead of future performance. You don't pay a pitcher who's going to give you #4 or #5 production #2 money, therefore when evaluating Buehrle the Red Sox need to look at him as what he would be in Fenway instead of what he was at CHW.[/quote']

 

 

Exactly good point. I would say Burehle would be around 4.50 ERA in fenway. I mean

for that type of production offer him 5th starter money 3 years/3 million per year.

[User Name]

Exactly good point. I would say Burehle would be around 4.50 ERA in fenway. I mean

for that type of production offer him 5th starter money 3 years/3 million per year.

 

This is kind of extreme though.

 

Innings pitched are valuable, and Buehrle is effective. He should make a similar amount to what he made last year wherever he goes, but with less years.

 

The trick here is to overpay on the short term so you don't get saddled with dead weight for the extra years.

[a700hitter]

Exactly good point. I would say Burehle would be around 4.50 ERA in fenway. I mean

for that type of production offer him 5th starter money 3 years/3 million per year.

You are underrating Buehrle tremendously. This is a guy who has never missed a turn in 12 years, who has pitched to a career ERA of 3.83, and pitched 2 no-no's (including a perfect game). The ballpark he pitches in is a launching pad. Fenway would not hurt him. He's as steady and reliable as you will find.

[Emmz]

Incorrect, any pitcher is going to have inflated ERA when they go to Boston, league change, etc.

 

You can't just pay a pitcher less money because you suspect their ERA will go up. The only time it's a loss in value is when said pitcher doesn't make the transition to a new league, which is entirely possible.

 

An increase of .2 or .3 doesn't effect value. There are ballpark adjusted stats for this.

[Emmz]

Exactly good point. I would say Burehle would be around 4.50 ERA in fenway. I mean

for that type of production offer him 5th starter money 3 years/3 million per year.

 

That's not how it works though. This is why WAR>>>>ERA.

[a700hitter]

Incorrect, any pitcher is going to have inflated ERA when they go to Boston, league change, etc.

 

You can't just pay a pitcher less money because you suspect their ERA will go up. The only time it's a loss in value is when said pitcher doesn't make the transition to a new league, which is entirely possible.

 

An increase of .2 or .3 doesn't effect value. There are ballpark adjusted stats for this.

He is an AL pitcher.

[Emmz]

You are underrating Buehrle tremendously. This is a guy who has never missed a turn in 12 years' date=' who has pitched to a career ERA of 3.83, and pitched 2 no-no's (including a perfect game). The ballpark he pitches in is a launching pad. Fenway would not hurt him. He's as steady and reliable as you will find.[/quote']

 

Yeah, Fenway didn't even bring Lackey's ERA up .8 in his first year, and Buehrle is in a much better position to continue success than Lackey was when they signed him.

 

Even if the typical transition to Fenway was a leap of .8 runs, that doesn't mean we get discounts on all pitchers who come here.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

You are underrating Buehrle tremendously. This is a guy who has never missed a turn in 12 years' date=' who has pitched to a career ERA of 3.83, and pitched 2 no-no's (including a perfect game). The ballpark he pitches in is a launching pad. Fenway would not hurt him. He's as steady and reliable as you will find.[/quote']

 

 

I agree with you on his career and being a workhorse but he does have a career ERA of

4.95 at Fenway. I'm not saying we shouldn't exhaust or options and Burhele would be

an exceptional option, I just think he should be our last resort.

[a700hitter]

I agree with you on his career and being a workhorse but he does have a career ERA of

4.95 at Fenway. I'm not saying we shouldn't exhaust or options and Burhele would be

an exceptional option, I just think he should be our last resort.

Most pitchers in the last 10 years suck against the Red Sox who have fielded some of the most prolific offenses in history. It's not Fenway that hurt him. It was the Red Sox.

[User Name]

WAR overvalues IP (and FIP) when assigning value to a pitcher. That's the reason why Lackey was massively overvalued by the statistic in 2010 to a 4.1 WAR and a 16.4 mill dollar value.

 

The problem with Buehrle would probably be a combination of a decrease of effectivenes due to the move to the much heavier-hitting AL East to go with his skills eroding due to age which could mean both a decrease in his regular peripherals (ERA, BB/9, WHIP) and his IP by association.

[Emmz]

He is an AL pitcher.

 

I know he is, but the AL Central is not the AL East.

 

Either way, he's a guy who will give you 200 innings every year, and he's good for a mid-upper 3s ERA, maybe low 4s on a off year.

 

He's essentially been at the same stats his entire career, and IMO, he could definitely be an effective pitcher into his late 30s.

[Emmz]

WAR overvalues IP (and FIP) when assigning value to a pitcher. That's the reason why Lackey was massively overvalued by the statistic in 2010 to a 4.1 WAR and a 16.4 mill dollar value.

 

The problem with Buehrle would probably be a combination of a decrease of effectivenes due to the move to the much heavier-hitting AL East to go with his skills eroding due to age which could mean both a decrease in his regular peripherals (ERA, BB/9, WHIP) and his IP by association.

I'm not buying, sorry. Lackey was definitely worth a 4.1 WAR in 2010.

 

I'd like to see how it overvalues IP. FIP is a very good statistic, better than the ones you're judging him by, like ERA, BB/9 or WHIP.

[Emmz]

I agree with you on his career and being a workhorse but he does have a career ERA of

4.95 at Fenway. I'm not saying we shouldn't exhaust or options and Burhele would be

an exceptional option, I just think he should be our last resort.

 

That would be from facing the Red Sox.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

So what would you guys offer him then 3-4 years at 5-6 million a year?.

[User Name]

FIP is a highly flawed statistic, and Mark Buehrle is exactly the pitcher it tends to under value. Because it doesn't take into consideration any batted ball besides HR, it undervalues pitchers who have low strikeout rates (like Buehrle) but overvalues pitchers who are batting practice to the other team (like Lackey, whose high LD% is a trend, not an outlier, making his high BABIP deserved). While it does add a league-specific value, it still has definite shortcomings.

 

WAR and FIP are both useful tools, but they're not good measures of a player's value by themselves.

[User Name]

So what would you guys offer him then 3-4 years at 5-6 million a year?.

 

3/36.