John Lackey to undergo Tommy John surgery

[Emmz]

FIP is a highly flawed statistic, and Mark Buehrle is exactly the pitcher it tends to under value. Because it doesn't take into consideration any batted ball besides HR, it undervalues pitchers who have low strikeout rates (like Buehrle) but overvalues pitchers who are batting practice to the other team (like Lackey, whose high LD% is a trend, not an outlier, making his high BABIP deserved). While it does add a league-specific value, it still has definite shortcomings.

 

WAR and FIP are both useful tools, but they're not good measures of a player's value by themselves.

 

Again, not buying it really, if Buehrle is the type of guy who gets undervalued by FIP, how's his WAR been so good over his career? I don't see how you can say WAR is not a good measure of value, when it's easily the best metric available atm.

[Gringo]

They'll give one spot to Aceves, and sign Mark Buerhle...

[a700hitter]

I know he is, but the AL Central is not the AL East.

 

Either way, he's a guy who will give you 200 innings every year, and he's good for a mid-upper 3s ERA, maybe low 4s on a off year.

 

He's essentially been at the same stats his entire career, and IMO, he could definitely be an effective pitcher into his late 30s.

Plus, three quarters of his starts are quality starts.

[Palodios]

Is Buerhle a Type A? Considering that most of the qualifiers for status are counting stats, I would think Buerhle would be.

[a700hitter]

So what would you guys offer him then 3-4 years at 5-6 million a year?.

They signed Matt Clement to a 3 yr/$24 million contract. Buehrle is worth at least as much as Clement.

[User Name]

Again' date=' not buying it really, if Buehrle is the type of guy who gets undervalued by FIP, how's his WAR been so good over his career? I don't see how you can say WAR is not a good measure of value, when it's easily the best metric available atm.[/quote']

 

I'm sorry miss, but i don't recall saying WAR was not a good measure of value. I said it is flawed, and not the be-all, end-all regarding player evaluation. When attempting to measure a player's value, you need a combination of statistics that paint the bigger picture. WAR is one of the stats to use, but not the only one.

 

As for Buehrle, while his WAR has been good, i believe that it has undervalued his effectiveness over the years due to his low strikeouts total. It may not be a massive impact on his WAR numbers, but still unfair.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

They signed Matt Clement to a 3 yr/$24 million contract. Buehrle is worth at least as much as Clement.

 

 

Oh man that was a clusterfu*** of a signing haha i almost forgot about that sh**bag.

I like Burhele alot and i hope we give him a look. I believe Burhele can give us 200 IP+

out of the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation.

[Laser Show]

Buehrle is a 3/33-3/39 pitcher, and worth every cent. He is not a #5, and probably not even #4 on the Sox. His track record is much better than Buchholz, and I think if we sign him, he shows up as the #3.

 

He is not on the decline yet, and we can easily 2-3 more peak years from him. It seems like people are thinking he is 38 and just came off a 150 IP 4.75 ERA year.

[jung]

That sounds right Laser Show. I would hope 3/33

[Dojji]

How many miles can the man lose on his fastball before he starts getting tattooed though?

[a700hitter]

How many miles can the man lose on his fastball before he starts getting tattooed though?

He already knows how to pitch. Velocity isn't that important to his game. It's not like he is throwing Jamie Moyer speed.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

I guess we will find out if he even signs. I don't dispute his good numbers at all, I'm just having a hard

time seeing him adjust to a huge market like Boston as well as the AL EAST.

[a700hitter]

I guess we will find out if he even signs. I don't dispute his good numbers at all, I'm just having a hard

time seeing him adjust to a huge market like Boston as well as the AL EAST.

I think he stays in Chicago if they make him a reasonable offer. The Red Sox only have a chance if the White Sox look to cut ties.

[Cask N Flagon 76]

I think he stays in Chicago if they make him a reasonable offer. The Red Sox only have a chance if the White Sox look to cut ties.

 

 

 

Agreed i don't see him leaving either unless Chicago cuts ties. We could look at Edwin

Jackson though decent starter good 4th to 5th in the rotation.

[a700hitter]

Agreed i don't see him leaving either unless Chicago cuts ties. We could look at Edwin

Jackson though decent starter good 4th to 5th in the rotation.

Jackson has become a bit of a journeyman, but he reliably takes the ball every fifth day with fairly consistent results. He shouldn't cost too much and the 5th slot would probably suit him well. He's still only 27. He could be a nice surprise at a low cost.

[Palodios]

Is Buerhle a Type A? Considering that most of the qualifiers for status are counting stats' date=' I would think Buerhle would be.[/quote']

 

I checked, and he's Type B for anyone curious.

[jung]

Well Jackson is younger, costs less money and is used to moving around. Probably does not have strong ties to break at this point.

[Laser Show]

Well Jackson is younger' date=' costs less money and is used to moving around. Probably does not have strong ties to break at this point.[/quote']

 

That's a pretty crappy argument you could use for Edwin Jackson against just about anybody, including Felix and Verlander. I'd rather get someone who I knew would give quality innings.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

hell yes. this is awesome. maybe the doctor can reattach the ligament sideways and we never have to see him again

 

Maybe a plastic surgeon can install a face cap over his ugly mug while he is under anesthesia for his TJ surgery.

 

OMG

 

Disaster offseason. I hope we get a decent starter, but not really sure who I want though. Lackey can't pitch that bad another year. It'll be hard to perform that bad again. Hopefully he comes back and does something right.

[Laser Show]

How about we just give him Jim Abbott surgery?

[a700hitter]

How about we just give him Jim Abbott surgery?

:lol:

[jung]

You are right Laser. Just comparing the things about Jackson that are being raised as making it tough to get Buehrle. It almost sounds like it would take too much money to overcome things that could convince Buehrle to move.

[Laser Show]

You are right Laser. Just comparing the things about Jackson that are being raised as making it tough to get Buehrle. It almost sounds like it would take too much money to overcome things that could convince Buehrle to move.

 

If CHW doesn't offer at least 3/30, I'm sure 3/33+ from BOS is more than enough to get him here. That is, of course, with no other suitors driving up the price.

 

I'm just not as big on Jackson as I was. I think his signing would be a mistake.

[SoxSport]

Buehrle is a 3/33-3/39 pitcher' date=' and worth every cent. He is [b']not[/b] a #5, and probably not even #4 on the Sox. His track record is much better than Buchholz, and I think if we sign him, he shows up as the #3.

 

He is not on the decline yet, and we can easily 2-3 more peak years from him. It seems like people are thinking he is 38 and just came off a 150 IP 4.75 ERA year.

 

Cherington says they are looking for "low price steals" for another pitcher. And yet they want to pay big bucks to ageing Papi? That strikes me as business as usual.

[Laser Show]

Cherington says they are looking for "low price steals" for another pitcher. And yet they want to pay big bucks to ageing Papi? That strikes me as business as usual.

 

They need to let Papi walk. A full-time DH fatigues the every day position players. They almost need that "day off" every week or 2 to stay healthy.

 

If you think about it, a full time DH gets 3-4 ABs a game, that's maybe 10-15 minutes of work. Ther other 2:30 they are riding the bench, chilling. And he wants $15MM for that?

[Palodios]

If CHW doesn't offer at least 3/30' date=' [b']I'm sure 3/33+ from BOS is more than enough to get him here.[/b] That is, of course, with no other suitors driving up the price.

 

I'm just not as big on Jackson as I was. I think his signing would be a mistake.

 

Signing players here will be a much greater challenge after 2011 than in the past.

[jung]

I could be wrong on this because the Sox throw over so seldom that you don't get a feel for what they are doing...only for what they are not doing. I don't recall seeing anybody at any time vary his throw over, if he was throwing over at all....no effort to throw the runner off his stride or put a seed of doubt in his mind....nothing. Then the idea that Salty could throw behind a runner on first is just not even in the program at all!! They don't even make an effort to hold runners that are known threats.

[User Name]

Cherington says they are looking for "low price steals" for another pitcher. And yet they want to pay big bucks to ageing Papi? That strikes me as business as usual.

 

Where exactly did Cherington say they would pay Ortiz big bucks? They said they wanted to re-sign him, but everyone knows how the market for aging DH's has been trending lately.

 

What's this even supposed to mean?

[Brennan]

Eh' date=' still the same value, just inflated for league change, etc.[/quote']

 

 

He wouldn't be changing leagues.

[jacksonianmarch]

Low priced steals? Isnt everyone looking for those?