JoeBrady

This is the gambling instinct in me. He averaged 31 HRs/600 ABs the past two years, albeit with contact issues.

That's probably right on Casas, but my guess is that the NYM want to see him healthy.

In that case, my apologies to Old Red. I had assumed his handle was a knock off of Old Fred.

The following chart shows the actual 2025 data by position, followed by the 2026 FG projections. This assumes Romy at 2B, Mayer at 3B, and RA at DH. This doesn't weigh anything. Obviously loading the lineup by OPS will increase the OPS and injuries will lower OPS. IRT to injuries, my assumption, not reflected in the numbers, is that any OF injuries will mean Yoshida's numbers would replace the injured OF's numbers. Make of it what you will. 2025 2026 s C 0.653 0.702 as 1B 0.691 0.787 as 2B 0.670 0.756 as 3B 0.777 0.724 as SS 0.736 0.712 as LF 0.781 0.761 as CF 0.774 0.723 as RF 0.822 0.788 as DH 0.823 0.802 0.747 0.751

Hence the but if we could get Skubal on the $300M/8 I mentioned,

They won't until they do. Every FA looks good, until they don't. I still remember the rejoicing in Colorado over signed Bryant, while I was telling them, before he even stepped on the field, that they should trade him to the RS, along with $51M. That's how overpaid he was, even on the first day. Bregman is better than that, but the number I came up with to Kimmi was $125M/5 based on his projected WAR and decline.

The only indispensable players are aces pitchers, or maybe just #1's. Everyone else is just a slightly better or slightly worse than the next guy in line. The difference between Bregman and Suarez last year was 0.3 fWAR. Alonso v Contreras was 0.8, mostly on then numbers of PAs. My point is that you can always replace someone. The Padres got excoriated for trading Soto, but a look at the historical numbers made it look like a sure winner. The key to me is that, if you acquiring a cheaper alternative, then you need to spend that savings smartly.

I doubt Romy gets us Vientos. But I would trade Casas straight-up for Vientos easily, though I doubt the NYMs make that trade. One extra year of control. A righty. A very nice backup for Mayer against tough lefties. At worst, he can platoon with Yoshi. At best, he can replace him. In 2028, he replaces Contreras at 1st.

I'm not sure what direction you're going. If you prefer HRs, then Suarez is better. If you like GG defense, then Hoerner is better. Heck, even Vientos is a better HR hitter than Bregman at this point.

Are you not Fred?

I was just making conversation, but if we could get Skubal on the $300M/8 I mentioned, then I'd make that trade. Not happily, but we'd have about the best rotation in BB.

My assumption as well. My argument at the time was that we weren't to extend Bregman at $30M to play 3rd when we had one of the top prospects in BB to do so. I was under the assumption that KC would be our 2B. The entire Bregman issue relates to KC not coming close to grabbing the 2B position. Last year at this time, I'd have been very happy with a 2026 IF of Casas, Campbell, Story and Mayer.

My guess is that they signed Bregman thinking that either Mayer or Campbell would need another year of development.

Yup, I still remember the cries of 'cheap' when we signed Beltre.

Getting a WS prediction wrong in 4 out of 22 years is virtually impossible.

I have no problem with calling JH cheap, if he doesn't add any more talent. But my recollection is that you became a RS fan in 2004. Life has not taught you the virtue of patience.

Actually, that was yesterday. Today we are 9th.

You also provided that exceptional insight in 2007, 2013, and 2018. Probably also in 2004.

I couldn't even read the article after I saw 'betrayal'. He was here for one year. He was a FA. Nobody is obliged to work for the same employer forever.

Under/over signature, I'm on.

As someone that wanted AB, this looks like a significant overpay.

My guess is Suarez.

Sure, but you can't ask me what time it is and not expect me to tell you how the World Clock works.

'Pretty weak' is being generous, imho. But if you have your control and extended players performing well, we should be able to rebuild the pipeline. I think we'll have a pretty good 2030 teams, and that's 5 years away. There is no certainty in drafting, but five years of draft picks should provide addition talent.

There is a lot to be said about the poker game between the FA and the player. I find a lot of interest in how players and teams come off the board. IRT Bregman, I think AZ just fell off the board with the Marte announcement. That leaves the RS, maybe the Tigers, maybe the Cubs. At some point, either the teams or the players will run out of options.