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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    wRC+. I always ignored his eclectic behavior, because sometimes a relaxed player is a better player under pressure. But when he told the press that he was already taking swings, and then had to tell them it was all in his mind, I honestly questioned whether or not Casas was connected to reality. But that said, I see no doubt that he is a really good hitter. Slow, injury-prone, no glove, kind of a disconnect with reality, sure, I can but all of those. But if the stars align, and he gets 600 ABs at DH, I think he'll be a 120+ hitter.
  2. JoeBrady
    IMHO, there will always be a GM willing to bet that he can turn any player around. And I'd bet that more GMs will be worried about his injury than his performance. There is a very good chance he will be a good to very-good hitter.
  3. JoeBrady
    Only if they include Bob 'f'ing Gibson.
  4. JoeBrady
    Casas has averaged 33 per 600 ABs for his career. That would've been good for #16 last year.
  5. JoeBrady
    I was on Suarez for two years, but you mentioned he could take over for Contreras in the 3rd year. I wouldn't pay full freight for what will almost certainly be a declining year, but the fit is good.
  6. JoeBrady
    Tigers win. Skubal demands a trade. The RS step in, for the good of baseball, and makes an offer. Skubal signs a $300M/8 extension. Easy-peasy. Everyone goes home happy.
  7. JoeBrady
    IRT Witherspoon, we might be getting high on our own supply. Our development has been so pristine over the past couple of years that we 'might' be getting over-confident. I posted the same thing earlier on Early. He seems to have moved from an interesting non-top 100 prospect, to almost untouchable. We don't have to, but it might make sense to trade him, if someone is mesmerized by his 19.1 MLB innings. IRT Romero, I don't see it. Too many Ks, and not enough fielding.
  8. JoeBrady
    Go with Romy/DHam platoon? I would do it, pending the deepest dive medical in history on Ragan's arm. He's a legit #2 with control. But why would KC trade him if he was healthy? His 3 years are more valuable than Skubal's one year.
  9. JoeBrady
    I agree. If he gets traded at the deadline, even at $32M, you only owe about $11M, and our share of difference is ($32-19)/3 or an extra $4M. That one more okay prospect. And if you trade/sign, then it's couch cushion change.
  10. JoeBrady
    Unfortunately, too many moving pieces. There were several small differences, which surprised me. And Crochet earned a $1.5M bonus for finishing #2 in CY. But I'm not sure if the gets applied to the year it was earned or whether it just increases his 2026. But the only interesting piece was what Soxprospects calls Minor League Cost at $14.0M. I assume it covers all the 0-3 players, plus anyone getting promoted/demoted during the year. Cots has something similar called 0- to 3-year players in majors/0- to 3-year players in minors. They only have $7.4M for that. I presume that's the major difference between the two calculations.
  11. JoeBrady
    I think it's fairly straightforward. Assuming we sign Bregman, then C, 1B, SS, 3B, and all 3 outfield spots will have full-time players. Mayer and Yoshi will be mostly fulltime, with Romy getting decent platoon time at 2B and DH. Casas has to start in the minors. Either Duran or Yoshi have to go.
  12. JoeBrady
    That's one of the reasons I prefer signing a 3B. If Bregman gets hurt, Mayer goes to 3B and Hammy/Romy platoon. If Story gets hurt, same thing.
  13. JoeBrady
    Houck was borderline. I'm not sure hoe he claims a spot in the rotation, this year or next. Casas was automatic. Even if he starts off in AAA, he still has serious value. From 2022-2024, at a minimum of 800 PAs, Casas is #36 out of 283 eligible. The funny part is, over that period, there are two interesting guys tied with him-Schwarber and Ketel Marte, with Bregman being only one point behind, and Paredes only 4 points behind.
  14. JoeBrady
    But we don't know that price. Suppose AZ offered him $180M/6. Does that mean we offer him $200M/6?
  15. JoeBrady
    IMO, no one should be. I think he is a fine target, even though some disagree. And they might be right. But the best player in any sport can be a bad buy at the wrong price.
  16. JoeBrady
    These people should never be allowed to speak in public. Theo said nothing. DD would talk like it pained him to speak. Everything is couched. Nothing is explicit. Saying 'full throttle' is just trying to get attention in the press.
  17. JoeBrady
    I seriously doubt that a projected 112+ hitter starts off in AAA. Their bench, without a trade, will almost certainly be Wong, Hammy, Romy and ???
  18. JoeBrady
    How do they arrive at the value? I assume it starts with a FG WAR projection multiplied by the annual rate for a FA. Just using $9M/fWAR, this means they are projecting 3.06 fWAR/year for Duran. That feels low to me, but that can be a separate analysis. But the Rafaela number implies 1.5 fWAR per year. I'd make a serious magical wager he exceeds that. He was at 3.8 last year.
  19. JoeBrady
    Both Romy and Yoshida will be on the team.
  20. JoeBrady
    But they count that as an asset or liability? Based on what we know today, what are his first two years of free agency worth?
  21. JoeBrady
    I'd ignore all of them. Negotiating against rumors is useless. Put a number on him, put an expiration date on him, and move on. You hope he accepts. Alternatively, you could weight Option A against option B and C. If the RS are indifferent to Bregman at $140M/5, Bichette at $160M/6, or Marte for Early, then you just see which option you come closest to.
  22. JoeBrady
    But like I always say, that's baked into the price. They're talking $300M or so for Tucker, and he's never broken 5.5 bWAR. Bichette only had a 3.5 last year. If Bregman was still carrying a 157 OPS+, you'd be looking at closer to $40M per.
  23. JoeBrady
    As they should be. Mission creep can be disastrous. Too many teams get caught up in rumors and wind up thinking that $21M is only $1M more than $20M. Then $22M is only $1M more than $21M. You should know ahead of time exactly what your final number is going to be. Same with a house. Same with a car.
  24. JoeBrady
    I'm not familiar him. Does he provide details by player? If so, do you have a link?
  25. JoeBrady
    It's important to note that he hasn't had any bad seasons (excluding injuries). He's never had a wRC+ lower than 114, and averaged 122 over the past three seasons.
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