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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    We exceeded in 2019 by $22M, or roughly 11% of the first threshold. Extrapolated to 2026, that's a total of ~$270M. My guess is that we come in slightly under the $264M and re-assess at the trade deadline.
  2. JoeBrady
    Not a problem at all. So long as I am not referenced, I have no problem ignoring him.
  3. JoeBrady
    Per Cots, we are at $239.77. While that's not a huge difference, in the realm of the 2nd threshold, it's huge. To get to $263.99, we have either $20.5 or $24.2 to offer Bregman. Getting a contract down from, say the $25M-28M range, down to $24.2M, it is simply matter of adding one dead-money year to the contract.
  4. JoeBrady
    I don't think opt-outs will be an issue. He just doesn't have enough worthwhile productive time left. Basically, two good years, one mediocre, and two declining years. Even if he wanted an opt-out after year 3, that value would be diminimus.
  5. JoeBrady
    Too many variables. I have no choice but to use the FG projection for 2026. After that, while I know the declines are not precisely 0.5, I think it's close enough for discussion purposes. I assume he is already in decline but so is half of baseball.
  6. JoeBrady
    There is not a single person in the world I don't get along with. Plenty that I disagree with, but none that I couldn't have a beer with.
  7. JoeBrady
    I'm not homophobic whatsoever. I said I disliked gay-baiting, and most gays probably agree. I'm curious what makes you think I'm a fascist. I'm probably on the Left 40% of the time. Glad to see you admit that my 'perceived' political views is what is driving you. That's what is wrong with America, but fortunately, neither the far left nor the far right own the political landscape.
  8. JoeBrady
    More nonsense. I've worked with people that switch suppliers because of penny differences in the price of lumber. Our supply chain folks traveled all over the world to discuss vendors and price and delivery. I've had meetings with our German engineers where they discussed the cost of electricity per pound of product down to like 5 decimal places. I've seen demos where our engineers sold products used to recover raw materials from off-spec electrical devices. We hired really good engineers to design heat re-capture. Crude oil washing. Everyone of our suppliers drove down our costs, and every customer wanted us to drive down their cost. That was just automatic.
  9. JoeBrady
    I didn't say it would be great. I said we had more current, locked-in talent than any team in BB. If there was long-term gambling sites, I'd gladly bet we have a better team than either Philly or Toronto in 2030.
  10. JoeBrady
    I don't think so. Both were destined for 3B. I think they took the position that it had to be one or the other, and they chose Devers for age purposes.
  11. JoeBrady
    He had 61 IPs. I acquire Snell in a lot of my leagues, but 61 innings doesn't make me happy.
  12. JoeBrady
    IMO, it was the worse because we didn't do enough. Like I said, the 22-24 teams were weak. Even if they made the playoffs, they'd likely be out in the first round. We needed a 1B and Naylor was right there.
  13. JoeBrady
    Again, this is one of those issues I'd prefer on numbers. Here's my take, and EVERYONE can feel free to disagree with it: FG projects (projection warning) Bregman for a ~3.8 WAR. If I apply the standard -0.5 decline each year, then his 5-year WAR is 14. At $125M/5 (net, for the people that don't like deferrals) that I hope for, that's $8.9M. IMHO, $8.9M per is about break-even. The reason I like Bregman at that number is that we aren't overflowing in future IF help. I'd prefer Mayer at 3rd, but that's small potatoes. The way I see it, the l/t 2nd, SS, 3rd alignment will a combination of Mayer, Arias, and no one else I feel comfortable with. For those inclined to throw furniture, I won't care. I've done so myself.
  14. JoeBrady
    I agree completely, and I think most GMs think the same. The draft picks are just part of the cost, much like freight is on a purchase. I like Bregman well enough, but losing two picks annoys me. OTOH, if we offer Skubal $300M next year, the two draft picks are a nothing-burger.
  15. JoeBrady
    Only Manny, Damon and Foulke were real, high-priced FAs. I have no problem with that. But if they didn't back that up with shrewd acquisitons like Millar, Reese, Muuller, Papi, Timlin and Pedro, then Manny, Damon, and Foulke would've been meaningless.
  16. JoeBrady
    I give you a 100% permission to challenge any of my facts. I know we are going to disagree. I disagree with everyone in here on occasion. Some more, some less, but it would be rather strange to agree with anyone 100% of the time. In fact, I find disagreement to be healthy. That some on here dislike the idea of signing Bregman is just a discussion point for me. Nothing more.
  17. JoeBrady
    Because it is not their money. For those that own their own business in here, I'm kind of betting that you're looking to maximize revenue and minimize expenses in accordance with some long-term plan.
  18. JoeBrady
    IMO, they should average top-5. But it matters when we spend. We had weak teams from 2022-2024, and probably longer. IMHO, we over-spent. I think the league and the PA should take a position that team spending should ebb and flow. In the case of the RS, I'd have preferred to have spent $60M less over those three years, and then have $20M more added to 2026-2028.
  19. JoeBrady
    Like I said in my post, some guys will under-perform and other guys will over-perform.
  20. JoeBrady
    That's a key part of the equation. I always said that part of DD's genius (and Preller as well to a lesser degree) was convincing ownership to spend more. The Phillies draw a million more than they did before DD. I'm going to round that off to $100M+ in revenue. That pays for a lot of payroll. But, for better or worse, that won't happen in Boston. We're talking about maybe 250k more fans. That won't motivate more spending. We should spend more, but the market doesn't force us to spend more.
  21. JoeBrady
    You are certainly not wrong, but part of that comes from paying top dollar on long contracts. That said, a few of those guys have under-performed, such as Conforto, Teoscar, Snell (so far).
  22. JoeBrady
    No. I don't think it's crazy talk or anything, but I'm not sure Peterson will out-perform our #4-5-6 guys by enough to warrant losing C & C.
  23. JoeBrady
    It'll likely be more than $20M. Marte is locked in for $102M/6. If they signed Bregman to $150M/6, the extra cost is $48M, and Marte is probably the better player right now.
  24. JoeBrady
    I'd cross off Philly. If they sign Bregman to replace Bohm, it is a 1.5 fWAR upgrade that would make them unlikely to re-sign Realmuto.
  25. JoeBrady
    No. The extra year would only be $10M and the AAV would be lower. I prefer to go slightly longer with a lower AAV at this point in time.
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