JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Passing on Bregman resulted in us acquiring Suarez & Durbin. Things could change, but right now, I'd much rather have Suarez & Durbin. -
Downgrade three positions all with one move?
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Do they? I looked at the top-30 players in fWAR from 2023-2025. Disregarding moves from LF/RF, I see Betts, that's all.
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Then that assumes that you were okay with prioritizing DH over the infield?
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How long would the crocs last? Everyone in Chicago would be wearing crocodiles boots within a week.
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It's more my accounting need to be logical. There can be no doubt that the reason for our slow start is a combination of Story, Duran, Anthony, Crochet and Bello. And almost no doubt that Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, Marte, Suarez or Paredes would've made would've made any improvement relative to their acquisition cost.
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My guess is that Tek doesn't even want the job. He's been in a supporting role for 12-13 years. If he wanted to become manager, he'd have left a long time ago.
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That was such an utter disaster. Crawford, at his best, was an Ellsbury close, and you don't normally need two of those. And Youkilis was one of the best 1Bs in BB, and they wanted to re-convert him to a 3B at the age of 32. Choice #1 should've been Beltre. Choice #2, if they felt the need to let Beltre go, should've been Headley. And choice #1 for LF should've been Willingham, who Oakland got for nothing.
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Surprised? We have fans that thought that Devers was grossly overpaid, untradeable, but traded for peanuts, and shocked that we traded those future peanut stars. All in the same paragraph. Their favorite Red Sox are whomever we just got rid of.
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Fair enough. But I feel strongly enough that I'd put a fair-sized wager on it. Similar career OPS, with Duran being 5 years younger, having a much higher EV this year, being a 30 SB guy, and IMO, should be playing LF for us.
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You'd have preferred Bregman over Suarez + Durbin?
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If we even offered to pick up his salary, Krall would drive him to Boston himself. I see no way he out-performs Duran going forward,
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Is there a significance or meaning to that?
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He doesn't have any ABs today.
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Eaton is not as good an offensive player either. He has 2 HRs in 240 ABs with a 70/18 K/W. Extrapolated to 600 ABs, that's 5 HRs and a 175/45 K/W. In 544 career ABs, Durbin has 12 HRs and a 66/40 K/W. I don't think that's particularly close.
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IMHO- 1-We were unlikely to do better, relative to cost. Right now, Durbin has a 0.4 bWAR. Bregman has a 0.6 at a cost of ~$30M. Marte has a 0.3 at a cost of $18M and possibly Tolle and Early. Paredes has a cost of $9M and probably Abreu, though we'd have likely gotten something else. There really weren't many attractive options out there. 2-FWIW, I am not at all disappointed in Durbin. His 0.4 is respectable for approximately 20% of the season. And he has a 10/9 K/W in his past 22 games. IMO, that's what leads to future success.
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Too small a sample size, and those differences are de minimis, imho.
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Imagine had we traded Tolle and Early, and not signed Suarez.
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Any fan that expects the GM to predict a 200 point drop from Story, a 200 point drop from Duran, and a 200 point drop from Anthony, is going to be disappointed. Real life doesn't work that way.
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We had 4 outfielders plus Yoshida. We weren't adding another OF/DH. The entire focus was upgrading the IF-1B, 2B, 3B. That was about 99% of the discussion.
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The entire demise of the RS offense rests with Story, Duran, and Anthony. If they had the same OPS as they had last year, then our team OPS would be .735. roughly tied with AX for 8th place, Either Fatse takes the fall for that, or Fatse has no impact on the hitting. It's possible that Fatse had no impact, but just like Cora, he hasn't done anything to distinguish himself.
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I like to focus. The theories around here are all over the place. When we lose, I get cranky. When I hear people say that the problem with the 2026 team is that we didn't sign Bichette, Alonso,Suarez & Bregman, and didn't trade for Paredes & Marte, it makes me even more cranky.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Spot 0n, 100% correct. As aggravating as this has been, it would be cool to wind up with 3 rookie SPs of varying quality. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Harrison pitched well for us. He just didn't pitch a lot. Priester pitched well for us. He just didn't pitch a lot. Elmer pitched well for us. He just didn't actually pitch for us. IIRC, Sale never pitched with Bailey on the team. -
A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Again, none of the available bats would've done anything for us. We could've signed Bichette, Alonso and Bregman, and traded for Paredes & Marte, and we'd still be 8 back. The problem is Story, Anthony, Duran, Crochet and Bello. They aren't the only problems, but there weren't enough FAs out there to make up for their poor play.