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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Like I've always said, I am all about adding value. I'd like a #2. But if someone were to offer a 2B or 3B of similar value, I'd do that. If no one wanted to do that, I'd trade for a prospect and buy a 2B or 3B.
  2. JoeBrady
    I absolutely cannot see the FA pitching list without thinking to myself "Where's Beeks? Where in the hell is Beeks?" What the heck, he's a lefty RP, sign him.
  3. JoeBrady
    I'm sure the teams do the same thing. No serious executive is going to say anything to the press unless it's a diversion.
  4. JoeBrady
    Many teams, including the RS, will make a good offer that they know will fall short. Not saying this is the case, but these articles are fairly meaningless.
  5. JoeBrady
    For all their spending, they have developed a lot of prospects. Smith, Pages, Sheehan and Kershaw came straight from their system, and Edman, Betts, and Glasnow came via trade. Again, money always helps, but you need development.
  6. JoeBrady
    Lack of developed prospects. Choosing 2022 at random, we had Bogaerts and Devers, who were added in maybe 2011, and now expensive? We had Vazquez at 2.2 bWAR. We had Whitlock and Houck at 1.8 and 1.6. You cannot spend your way to prosperity. We were 5th in payroll, but that's all we had. I understand that you won't agree with that, but the successful mega-market teams still have a lot of internal development.
  7. JoeBrady
    What is wrong with you?
  8. JoeBrady
    It's better than whatever anyone else has. That's vitally important.
  9. JoeBrady
    I don't have the ability to read a book that I know is a fiction. I open it, but I always know the author is making it up. I like history as well, but usually just Wiki it. But no work of fiction can come close to the level of arrogance and hubris found in the world of finance (and I am invested). Just the feeling that Burry must have gotten when the same people that laughed at him a week earlier, were now calling asking about the futures he held, was priceless. The arrogant prick I am, I'd have told them, "Sorry, I have Goldman and Duetsche on hold. I'll get back to you. Or I'll wait a week and feast on the carcass of what use to be your trillion $$$ company. '.
  10. JoeBrady
    That's one of my more fun research projects recently. Narvaez 2B Arias Mayer Campbell Rafaela Anthony DH Crochet Early Tolle Bello Witherspoon Obviously not everyone will succeed, but there will always be some that out-perform. But I find it virtually impossible (with no research to support my assertion) that anyone has anything close to a 2030 team like that. And 5 of those guys are locked in for $103M, leaving another ~$152M for arbitration and FA signings.
  11. JoeBrady
    Financial history is probably the only books I read. These guys are always, always, always the smartest guys in the room. Until they aren't. The Big Short is one of the best books ever written, of any genre, and the movie was excellent as well.
  12. JoeBrady
    Absolutely. But my point is that having a lot of money isn't going to lead to success if you are always bidding against teams willing to overpay. For all numbers going around, only 6 of the top-10 spenders even made the playoffs. The LAD, even with their gargantuan payroll, only finished with the 6th best record.
  13. JoeBrady
    One of the reasons I like building for the future. We shouldn't be in a last chance situation. One of the reasons I like the young kids signing is that I now see a 5-year window of contention. By my calculations, we are currently the best team in BB in 2030. If we don't drain off too many picks via FA penalties and CBT penalties (some is fine), then we should be well re-stocked again by 2031. With good management, we should always be a contender.
  14. JoeBrady
    Don't start. We re-did a half-bathroom. Beautiful, and not overly expensive. But the ajoining kitchen looked horrible, so we had to redo it. And, you know, as long as the guys are here, we should think about replacing the dining room ceiling. And then how much more would it cost to paint it? Oh, BTW, I no longer like the custom paint that you just bought and cannot be returned. My spouse was right on everything, and it was a showroom redo. But it's just a funny thing to move everything from two rooms, into two other rooms. I had to go on a diet to get past some of the furniture.
  15. JoeBrady
    Is that still true? I'd have thought 401k's would've caught up to house net equity by now
  16. JoeBrady
    Another reference point in 2004: RS $127M NYY $184M LAD $93M NYM $97M TOR $50M PHI $93M SDP $55M It felt like every FA was going to the NYY. And if the NYY passed, he was ours. There was seldom a 3rd team to bid against.
  17. JoeBrady
    More money is always better. But getting 100% return on $280M will beat the heck out of a team with an 85% return on $300M. There is no easy or straightforward answer.
  18. JoeBrady
    Just imho, the best financial aspect of owning a house is that it forces you to pay attention to your spending habits. Nothing focuses the mind more than being able to reconcile your checking account in your head.
  19. JoeBrady
    15 years ago was when people were zagging. Warren Buffet said it best (he borrowed it from someone else) when he said 'be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when other people are fearful'. After the mortgage debacle, I'd see comments all day long in Bloomberg people saying they would never buy a house, or that buying a house was stupid. That's usually when to make a move. That said, if you took your house mortgage money and invested in the S&P, you're still doing pretty well.
  20. JoeBrady
    It's a huge uptick. We were a bad team from 2022-2024, with little help from cheap prospects. If you don't have that, no amount of spending will make up for it. Now we have plenty on controlled, high-quality players.
  21. JoeBrady
    He's also not here because his value as a DH is less than it would be as even a weak-fielding 3B. If I have a 110-112 OPS+ guy that I am already paying for, I'd prefer to use Devers $30M+ elsewhere.
  22. JoeBrady
    I don't think anyone thinks that. As far as I am concerned, this is our window, and should both add another IF AND trade for a #2. But one counter-point to windows, I think some fans have unrealistic expectations and think every year could be our year, if only we spent more. We were a bad team from 2020-2024, despite getting a little lucky in 2021. Adding big FAs to weak teams with no pitching never works. Past that, while I would still decline on contracts like Alonso, we should certainly be spending.
  23. JoeBrady
    How many posters do we have in here? I mentioned this about twenty years ago and got surprisingly little feed back. Anyone want to create a standard 8-team Yahoo league? We could make it for free. Or, if we have enough bold fans, we could create a small $$$ league, with the winner giving the money to their favorite charity. LMK if anyone is interested.
  24. JoeBrady
    This is a pet peeve for me, as well as a corporate philosophy. Getting off the RS for a moment, I think some teams should tank occasionally, cut the payroll in half, but then cut the ticket prices and concession prices at the same time. I think you could engage a fair amount of fans of a rebuild, if they thought the team was making a sacrifice as well. Unfortunately, teams apparently aren't allowed to say that, and then they spiral down until they have 60 wins and the rebuild is blindingly obvious.
  25. JoeBrady
    I don't think you're getting it. Most of the accountants want smart spending, not spending just for the sake of spending. My favorite example is in 2011. Everyone was happy when we signed Gonzo and CC, as was I. But I also knew it made no sense, and that Headley (if possible) and Willingham were the best targets. Did money have anything to do with it? Yes and no. I thought Headley and Willingham were better fits, but the idea that we'd have a gazillion $$$ to spend elsewhere was a consideration. It has to be. I couldn't care less how rich or how poor JH gets. My only concern is WAR/$$$.
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