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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    There is no way to model this, since half the players do better and half do worse, But figured Contreras, Raffy, Abreu, Durbin, and Mayer don't surprise me with the +/-. Wong & IKF don't have enough PAs to surprise one way or another. But I was surprised by just how far off Duran is and should've included him. I've done this exercise before, but if Story, Narvaez, and Anthony hit their FG projections, the RS would have a .721, good for 16th. If we include Duran reaching his FG projection, then our OPS is .738, good for 7th.
  2. JoeBrady
    IMHO, Devers had a little reason to be irked. He had just gotten demoted from 3B to DH, and then we asked him to go back to the field. In addition, he was unlikely have done well initially. That said, he should've just taken his new assignment and not said a word. At least, that's what I'd have done.
  3. JoeBrady
    We are rarely in sell-mode, so it won't be a lot. ERod was pretty big. Pivetta was good.
  4. JoeBrady
    That could well be true. But run differential will still tell you what your record will be. The more you outscore your opponent, the better your record will be.
  5. JoeBrady
    It's still a surprise. FG projected .683 for Narvaez, .735 for Story, and .802 for Anthony. So .563, .547, and .675 are surprises.
  6. JoeBrady
    Like us, or the league? I doubt we see much of a work stoppage, if any. The RS, well, they have a lot of variables. But my guess on the payroll is about $210-215M, so we'll have $40M to spend before hit the first cap, and maybe $80M before we start seeing some pushback.
  7. JoeBrady
    I said this in another thread. Half kidding, but we're in a fun spot. For 3-4 years, we weren't in position to buy or sell. Now we three guys for certain to be sold, and if they don't revert or get injured, we should get some good value. We can then play every questionable player like Mayer, Seigler, etc., without fear of losing. And we can sit back on players that we like and tell teams, 'we have no intention of trading so-and-so (Contreras), but we will listen'; And since the draft is based on a lottery, we can still get lucky, even if we manage to stay out of #30. Good times!
  8. JoeBrady
    I think too many fans view medical calls as an extension of the FO. If they don't like the FO, then the medical calls are some type of conspiracy. A lot of medical calls might be coin flips. I've had differing medical opinions on a couple of issues. It didn't mean either one was right or wrong.
  9. JoeBrady
    ERod, Price and Eovaldi were probably better than Porcello.
  10. JoeBrady
    IMO, for the regular season, you need 5 good SPs, a closer, and at least a modicum of hitting. But to succeed in the playoffs, you need 3 good SPs, and preferably one is an ace.
  11. JoeBrady
    I have no idea what's happening with him, which is kind of my point. None of us have a single clue.
  12. JoeBrady
    Define 'surprise? Narvaez -163 Story -204 Anthony -184 (SSS) Duran -150
  13. JoeBrady
    Run differential will predict what your record will be. It doesn't matter how you get there. Sort by Py W/L. The top-10 almost always make the playoffs. The bottom-10 very rarely play .500
  14. JoeBrady
    With a guy like Duran, you might have to know him personally. Everyone knows his issues. But no one really knows where his head is at right now.
  15. JoeBrady
    I think someone will jump. There are always GMs out there that thing they are the smartest one in the room. And RPs are always traded at the deadline. While all of them have longer records than Guerrero, none of them have a 19/1 K/W.
  16. JoeBrady
    How else are we going to get the #1 pick? This could be a great, awful season for us.
  17. JoeBrady
    I get that entirely. But the decline would have to have been baked into the salary reduction. If he was a FA, how much would you pay? Maybe $125M/5? So SF would owe us $100M plus this year's salary. Of course, that was last week's idea, and I can no longer contemplate any additions. But I also wouldn't lock the door.
  18. JoeBrady
    Oh yeah. I never like to quit, but every single day is worse that the previous day (yeah, Office Space). Two weeks ago, I wanted Chapman and Adames. Now I want scorched earth.
  19. JoeBrady
    I agree on both. Duran would be selling low, so I wouldn't even list him. Guerrero has been unhittable. Not enough history for a team to give a real prospect, but there might be 20 teams interested in him. I think he'll fetch a top-150 type guy. That's a pretty solid return for a guy we got for nothing.
  20. JoeBrady
    For Gray, I think it has to start with the Cubs. They've lost 6 SPs, and their playoff position is precarious. And they have guys I like, FWIW. Conrad, Kepley, and Hartshorn from the 2025 draft all look promising. Wiggins (2023) also, though I am suspicious why he doesn't have more IPs.
  21. JoeBrady
    Looking at 120 PAs, which yields exactly 30 batters (FG), Durbin ranks #20. About 17 points ahead of Bregman, but 16 points below Bichette.
  22. JoeBrady
    Oddly enough, it doesn't. Maybe that's why he is so effective. I'm mostly kidding, but forcing batters to make decisions with 100+ velo, has its attributes.
  23. JoeBrady
    We needed a LH RP at the start of the season. I don't think they'd have kept Harrison in AAA rather than use in the BP.
  24. JoeBrady
    In this scenario, is Pedro the #8 SP in the BP?
  25. JoeBrady
    I've been harping on this early and often. You shouldn't leave almost any challenges on the table. You need to develop a data-driven overview about the needed win-expectation relative to the inning. The earlier it is, the higher the win-expectation needs to be. Some counts are far more valuable than others. Guys on base and number of outs counts. Put them all together for a plan. Past the obvious, I suspect that the RS lack of zone awareness might hamper their challenge success. I'm not bashing them, but I've seen Raffy swing at pitches that were forehead high, and Monasterio swing at pitches that bounced. They might not have the requisite knowledge of the strike zone.
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