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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Again, using a sample size of 1, with a 1st ballot HOF, does affect my analysis whatsoever. But it is worth noting that his wRC+ has fallen from 220 to 204 to 171 over the past two years. So even HOF players will get old and decline.
  2. JoeBrady
    We are only committed for one more year.
  3. JoeBrady
    They acquired Wells (32), Hamilton (32), Pujols (32), Upton (30), Cozart (32), and Rendon (30). At those ages, you should expect very few good seasons. From 2025, the numbers of players with 2+ fWAR, by age: 33 5 34 3 35 3 36 0 37 0
  4. JoeBrady
    I agree with all this. My analysis takes into account the standard aging declines. And the cost is not cheap, but after including Story and Yoshida, it is not overly expensive. And like you said, I'm not in love with these two players, though Chapman was a guy we should've pursued at one point. But mostly, this is a team that is primed for a move. Assuming Crochet returns, this is probably the best rotation we've ever had. We have to support them, no doubt in my mind.
  5. JoeBrady
    While there is merit to the suggestion that we will not land some big FAs if we stick to age requirements, I just don't see that as a negative. The Angels spent a decade or so signing good players that had already turned 30. Sometimes you'll get lucky, but not very often. I'd much prefer to overpay for the Harper types that will give you 6-7 good years before they start to decline.
  6. JoeBrady
    In a decidedly non-scientific analysis, I took a look at all the players from 2025, with an fWAR of 2.0 or higher, age 33-36. There were 11 players. Only 2 had improvements in their wRC+, while 9 declined. The two that improved, Diaz and Contreras, improved by 8 points each. The 9 that declined had declines that were much, much higher.
  7. JoeBrady
    I saw a documentary on that with someone named Dorothy, and her four unusual friends.
  8. JoeBrady
    I mentioned that earlier. I doubt we will be trading away anyone, but Gray and Chapman are the only guys worth mentioning.
  9. JoeBrady
    Sloppy by KC not getting the lead runner.
  10. JoeBrady
    Horrible challenge. The pitch missed by almost 3 inches, and the count was already 3-0. It would be a bad challenge even at 3-2, but more understandable.
  11. JoeBrady
    Yup, normally, I'd shy away from these deals, but we're substituting a .491 & .547 with two guys that should be in the .725-.750 range. If you substituted Story and Durbin's OPS with a .725 each our adjusted OPS would be .706, good for 14th,
  12. JoeBrady
    My back-of-the-crayon calcs, including 2026, is $169M for Adames, $125M for Chapman, less about $86M for Story + Yoshida, netting to $208M. If one were to normalize Adames as a 4 WAR player this year, Chapman as a 2.8, and reducing their WAR by 0.3/year, we would net 30.5 WAR for the $208M, which is fair. If one were to go with an annual reduction of 0.4/year, that reduces their contractual WAR to 28. And I'd be okay with that as well. The biggest issue would be their normalized WAR. If it is not 4.0 and 2.8, that reduces the value even more. But Adames is only 30, so I am okay there, and Chapman gets a fair amount of value from his glove, so that should be okay. I'd also throw in an analysis of their past four year. Adames has averaged .753 OPS (108+) with very little variance. Chapman has a .768 (117+) with almost no variance. Both drop-offs are extreme outliers. Bottom line-These two fit perfectly and we have a lot of payroll coming off the books. I'd make this move and not have to think very hard about it.
  13. JoeBrady
    I would do that. And it might not be too far off.
  14. JoeBrady
    There are always players missing time, but that doesn't mean they are necessarily injury-prone.
  15. JoeBrady
    Reasonable point, but his home OPS is a fair amount higher than his road OPS this year (.721 v .599).
  16. JoeBrady
    1-Two months too early for this discussion. 2-Focus on the players that won't be here in 2027. That's Gray and Chapman. Everyone is either someone we will need in 2027, or someone that won't bring back more than a lottery ticket, even including when we eat salary.
  17. JoeBrady
    I'm not sure. Just from my accounting ledger, Paredes is say 1/2 further along by the time we trade for him. Only getting him for 1.5 years, plus his performance has been mediocre (.716 OPS/0.6 bWAR), I would think would lower his value. And if Houston thinks they are out of it, they will be more inclined to trade him. Someone outside of our top-4 prospects would be okay by me.
  18. JoeBrady
    I would trade for Paredes, but if they stay pat, I too would let Monasterio start at SS and keep Mayer at 2B.
  19. JoeBrady
    1-I know the timing wasn't the same, but for what Seattle paid for Naylor, we should've added him. He cost nothing. 2-That said, Devers isn't worth his salary. I would re-acquire him, but not for the $250M+ he is owed.
  20. JoeBrady
    I'm one of the few that would trade for Devers, if SF ate some money. That said, his 'real' May numbers are 3 HRs in 58 ABs with a 19/6 K/W. I still think he'll revert back to his career numbers, but 3 Hrs and a 19/6 are pretty weak.
  21. JoeBrady
    Not only no Gray & Contreras, but a chance of no Tolle & Early, unless the Snakes were in a very generous mood. Our rotation would be Crochet, Harrison, Bello, Moonslav and Joey.
  22. JoeBrady
    Guys like Marte seldom just disappear. But once a guy starts edging towards the age of 33, you always have to ask whether or not the decline is permanent, or just part of regular BB variance. Before the Angels signed Pujols, his OPS declined from 1.101 to 1.011 to .906. I asked Angels fans the same question. If .906 is his true number, and he is in decline, would you still want the contract. Mostly the answer implied that Pujols wouldn't get old.
  23. JoeBrady
    Wait! You expected return? I was shocked we could move his contract at all, let alone get Tibbs and Harrison.
  24. JoeBrady
    Fair enough/
  25. JoeBrady
    Good time to look for a 2B/3B whose slugging outweighs his glove deficiencies.
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