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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    If I have the time, or more importantly, the mental inclination, I might check out the OPS/RS discrepancy. The correlation between RS and OPS is as close to 1.00 as real life allows. The RS are 17th in OPS and 22nd in RS. It sounds close, but probably the biggest variance in MLB. Setting aside the prices paid, adding Rutschman and Mead were directionally correct. As we all know, the biggest relative weaknesses (sOPS+) for the RS were: LF (Anthony) C (Rutschman) SS (Story) 2B (Mead) Story was probably the least reliable of the replacements, but it's difficult to address every weakness. Past that, I have never denied some bias. I use FG and BR as much as is reasonable, but even hard-core statistics are subject to interpretation.
  2. JoeBrady
    And #3 in RAs based on..........runs allowed.
  3. JoeBrady
    And just for the record, we are #18 in 1st pitch PAs, and #9 in OPS.
  4. JoeBrady
    Yes, but with one caveat. If you are facing a weak pitcher, you can be more patient, because they usually won't beat you. And for a few hitters, the counts don't matter.
  5. JoeBrady
    Lot of injuries to the rotation. The playoffs are still random, but they don't even have a #1 SP, and barely have any #2s. They did a good job at the deadline adding warm bodies, but they have a tough row to hoe.
  6. JoeBrady
    I've always cringed when we had to face a TBD pitched against us. Usually someone I never heard of, and usually shuts us down. For like 60 years now.
  7. JoeBrady
    Runs scored is a much more complicated calculus than OPS, so I use OPS for projections. They should align, but occasionally diverge.
  8. JoeBrady
    I'm not defending it. I'm telling you what the numbers tell me. The 12th/4th projection is a very solid number. Of the 13 playoff contenders, only 4 teams have a lower number than the combined 16 (Mil, LAD, NYY, Atl). The Cubs have a 16 and TB has a 17. (All based on RS and RA).
  9. JoeBrady
    I read Symborski's article, but saw no reference to pitching. I'd love to see how teams fared during the season relative to the playoffs, depending on whether or not they relied on a solid 1-5 rotation, or 3 good + 2 weak SPs, or two #1s + 3 mediocre SPs. My model was always the AZ RJ + Schilling, or the RS Pedro + Schilling. What makes you vulnerable during the regular season makes you very difficult in the playoffs.
  10. JoeBrady
    No, but we did sweep LAD in LA.
  11. JoeBrady
    I'd also throw in that we are 6-7 against the NYY this year. And while the NYY top 3/4 are really good, our top-3 stills rolls in with a 2.99 ERA.
  12. JoeBrady
    There are no safe bets. If the NYY played a 3-game set v the LAD, at home, with their three best, rested SPs, I'm pretty sure the NYY would be favored.
  13. JoeBrady
    And we'll win 87 games with the most injuries in BB. I consider that to be 100% correct in EVERY aspect of what I said. Feel free to review the early-season prediction threads, and I believe I said we needed at least one, probably two, quality SPs. We did that. We needed a 1B and either a 2B or 3B, and we did that. I believe I predicted 12th in OPS and we are currently 12th. And I believe I predicted 4th in pitching, and we're 6th. I think the only place I went off-course was I thought we needed another RP.
  14. JoeBrady
    My guess is that Romy is gone. We won't do any type of R/R platoon, and unlikely to even do a R/L platoon. And we have plenty of IF depth pieces in Sogard, Monasterio, and Seigler, all of whom provide more flexibility. And since JJ can play RF, I think he provides more backup in the DH/LF slot.
  15. JoeBrady
    Just guessing that this might have something to do with Contreras, Ceddanne, and Yoshida combining for 7 starts this month. The 6 starters that are actually playing are at exactly league-average.
  16. JoeBrady
    It's not just a case of offense v pitching. Positional and marginal improvements counts. This is our sOPS+ plit sOPS+ as C 83 as 1B 122 as 2B 92 as 3B 104 as SS 91 as LF 81 as CF 105 as RF 114 as DH 106 Our weakest 2026 positions have been upgraded by Rutschman, Mead, and Anthony. The only category projected under 100 is SS. Obtaining Aro to upgrade a 106 at DH is not going to be a difference-maker, imo.
  17. JoeBrady
    I see little chance that Story is the WS AND Arias has a chance to prove himself. If he has a .375 with three HRs, he is the automatic 27 starter (and probably will be no matter what). Mead would have to be absolutely awful in ST to not get the OD call.
  18. JoeBrady
    It feels wicked strange. Maybe they wanted him to get some additional ABs and some more reps in CF. But none of our players should be hustling out hits. I know many have only one speed, but just sit them down if you have any doubt at all.
  19. JoeBrady
    Mead is 0,0,0 at 2B, while Sogard is -2, 0, and 1. If you go by the rating agencies, the fielding difference is negligible. And I don't think Story or Arias will play 2nd. If Story and Mead are both hitting, Arias stays at AAA. If Story doesn't hit, they will will promote Arias, but then won't sit Mead to start Story.
  20. JoeBrady
    The voters are awful. Evans should've been a lock. And Reggie Smith had a better career than Dewey. Tiant deserves consideration, and his out-sized personality should be considered. The issue will be when voters have to compare Tiant to Tommy John, who has 59 more wins.
  21. JoeBrady
    Career -0- DRS, OAA, and FRV. I see no reason no reason that he shouldn't be playing 2B.
  22. JoeBrady
    In my way of thinking, I feel free to build cases, and then pick the one the greater likelihood. Had one looked at Mead in the minors, he looked like a 25-HR, .275 hitter. When I see a guy with 17 HRs and a 62/39 K/W in , it feels like that's in the range of what I would've expected after seeing his AA and AAA stats. I'd also throw in that he has not had any bad months in 2026. Had he had a red-hot April, and then flattened out, I'd be more suspicious. But Mead looks like the player his ranking would've suggested.
  23. JoeBrady
    I generally don't pay too much attention to what a player does in his walk year. In the three previous years, we have three considerations at DH: Player A: .753 OPS Player B: .756 OPS Player C: .743 OPS The two other DH options are already guys I don't really want to pay. I honestly do not think Aro, Duran, or Yoshida will out-perform a JJ/Gasper platoon by enough to be worth their salaries. My picks are Gray or Skubal.
  24. JoeBrady
    I assume everyone has players like this. There is always an impending FA that is worth roughly $21M that you *might* want to offer a QO, or a marginal arb player that might get overpaid.
  25. JoeBrady
    Arozarena has a .574 OPS in the playoffs since 2021. Signing a FA, in the hopes of a good playoff, doesn't sound feasible to me.
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