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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    That's the whole thing. We don't know how they come up with their version of WAR, or even if they have their own version. Just taking a look at bWAR v fWAR, there is a difference of 0.9 WAR. Theoretically, 0.9 * 6 years * $10M/WAR is a difference of $54M. And that's without an inflation factor. I'm not bagging on BTV, but a long duration * even a small difference, yields a large variance.
  2. JoeBrady
    That's why BTV has to be taken with a grain of salt. Long-term contracts are difficult to assess,
  3. JoeBrady
    Those three guys had a combined 11 bWAR for a combined $95M, and still have another $685M in liabilities to go, and their average age is about 32. I liked them all, but we'd be finished for the next 6 years had we kept them.
  4. JoeBrady
    One good year+ one year at risk. I ignored the team option because it had a decent-sized buy-out, tough I normally give the team some credit on that.
  5. JoeBrady
    It's a great thing. 3 WAR * 6 years * $10M++/WAR = $180M. Less $43M is $137M in extra value.
  6. JoeBrady
    But I didn't really say that. Pitt and the Reds have drafted well, but are too afraid of making a mistake to trade anyone. And the Angels and Rox are just bad, bad front offices.
  7. JoeBrady
    I agree. I wanted to trade away Duran for a #2, but Suarez took care of that. And once we acquired Durbin, we really didn't need anything. That said, if I saw Burns, or Chandler, or Seth Hernandez on the block, I could change my mind pretty quickly.
  8. JoeBrady
    Oddly enough, he is only 2nd in doubles and triples over the past two years (1st if you combine the two). I'd have bet, without even looking that he lead in both categories. Maybe the most exciting player in BB.
  9. JoeBrady
    FWIW, all three guys will decline. It's more a matter of how much and how quick. One can defend or critique either side and sound reasonable.
  10. JoeBrady
    That's my figuring. He was good in 2025, so I expect him to be good in 2026. So we have one year at risk.
  11. JoeBrady
    It's the true believer syndrome. Even reality won't penetrate. Most people can understand the minutiae of a HR/OBP discussion, or a #2 v a cleanup hitter.
  12. JoeBrady
    Has that been verified by the Red Sox?
  13. JoeBrady
    IMO, that's what we did. We paid up for Suarez and Gray and went cheaper on Contreras & Durbin. To me, it depends on what you need and what's available. Again, only imho, but Bregman was too injury-prone and slightly to old to match the Cubs, and Alonso is decidedly one-dimensional. A guy like Marte is definitely a step up, but for how long? Two years? OTOH, I was happy with the price we paid for both Crochet and Suarez.
  14. JoeBrady
    Except the ask for Neto was probably Arias, Early & Tolle.
  15. JoeBrady
    It's almost a waste of time dealing with teams (Cincy, Pitt, the Rox) like that. They can't make a decision out of fear that they will be wrong. They wind up asking 50% over market. Guys like Preller and Friedman, etc., don't care about the optics of anything.
  16. JoeBrady
    I agree completely. Watching Ceddanne is like watching a Van Gogh. But I could sell my Van Gogh for something that fits my collection better.
  17. JoeBrady
    Yes, but there is also a decent chance we get rid of Masa. If/when that happens, Duran could easily a 45-game outfielder, plus injury insurance, etc. That can't be commingled with someone that is a pure DH like Masa, Devers, Schwarber, etc. He's obviously worth more as a CF for Cincy or Pitt, but he is also worth more than the usual DH valuation.
  18. JoeBrady
    They wouldn't, but what's the point of being a 'journalist' if you don't ask tough questions. Do we even know if the NTC is a hard and fast rule, or just a preference?
  19. JoeBrady
    It's neither. The best approach, imo, is to attain the most WAR for the money available. Schwarber + Alonso project to ~6.2 fWAR for $61M. Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin project to 11 fWAR for $65M, plus some minor prospects.
  20. JoeBrady
    Gotta disagree. Just impo, I'd rather be chasing WSCs than WC slots. We should've gone all-in last year, but in 2022-2024, I'd have been selling hard. JDM, Eovaldi, Pivetta, TON, etc., would've all gotten decent prospects (top-150).
  21. JoeBrady
    Fred thinks Suarez, Contreras, Gray & Durbin are 'dregs'. Some of his utterances are there merely to annoy.
  22. JoeBrady
    That's not quite right. In 2020, we were out of it. In 2021, we added Schwarber In 2022-2024, while we weren't out of it, imho, it would've made no sense to give up prospects for a shot at the WC and a likely early exit. Even in 2025, we added May. It looked like a good for his first three starts before going south. IMO, Naylor was the obvious target, and that was a mistake.
  23. JoeBrady
    He's a one-string banjo. He'd rather get an expensive player than a good player. And he'd rather get a HR hitter than a well-rounded one.
  24. JoeBrady
    The funny part is, while I know the name, I had no idea who Gaspar was. Now we have posters who think we picked Gaspar over Alonso & Bregman.
  25. JoeBrady
    IMHO, Durbin will be the better value than Marte, and Neto was always just a fantasy. If LAA had any common sense whatsoever, they would offer him a lifetime contract.
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