JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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It'll be ~87 wins despite missing virtually the entire season from the #2 CY SP, and missing most of the season from our best hitter. It's a better season, injuries considered, than anyone expected. That counts for something?
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The top-2 guys for the NYY have an ERA of 2.18, and the top-3 ERAs are 2.34.This projects to be a low-scoring series. I would not be at all surprised if none of the games exceed a 7.5 U/O.
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It depends on whom you lose. Losing Story was not a difference maker. But no one can replace a Crochet.
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No Ceddanne, Contreras and Yoshida will do that. You'll also find that BABIP has a fair impact over short-term results.
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The playoffs are pretty random. But over the full regular season, you'll be about 96% accurate using run differential/Py.
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This type of magnitude is a little special.
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That's almost always true for rookies. He's truly looked better this year, but when guys get to the age of 30, they are mostly whatever you've been seeing for 30 years. Especially hitters. I could be talked into a couple of matchup changes, but for the most part, I'd go with the guys that have proven themselves. And maybe some consideration to flexibility. Gasper could be a good PH once Fried is out of the game, and Duran can be a good PR, kind of thing.
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We have the RS and Cubs to thank for most of the recent stadiums. We probably had a 30-year period where every stadium had to hold 50,000-55,000 people, even though they knew they would never get more than 35,000 on average. Then Camden followed our example that smaller is usually better.
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I thought the same about Oakland's park. Obviously I didn't get to see the inner workings, but I enjoyed the park itself.
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If we were told that we'd lose Crochet for almost the entire season, and RA for most of the season, would a single person have guessed 87 wins. I was pretty optimistic, but I'd have thought we'd be lucky to play .500. I don't see any way a fan can be disappointed with our 2026 results. None whatsoever.
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There were enough of us that believed in pitching, defense, and a decent offense would/should win. Run differential is the guiding light in baseball. It doesn't matter how you get there.
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If the average record for a playoff team is .550, then I assume that teams clinch the playoffs, with a loss, 45% of the time. Would LAD, Mil, and Atl not celebrate if they clinched with a loss?
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Interesting article. If you ever get a chance, it might be interesting to ask Breslow what he's looking for in pitchers, particularly the younger ones. I assumer extension is an obvious trait, but guessing that there is a lot more to it.
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He's fine for what he does. 0.4 bWAR in 205 ABs.
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From a W/L perspective, the game is virtually meaningless. From the perspective of what we might expect from Bello, this was pretty important.
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Getting off-topic slightly, but most career 'clutch' stats look a lot like most career 'overall' stats. Papi high-leverage .943 Papi medium-leverage .959 Papi low-leverage .898 If one adjusts for differences in BABIP (my formula is (BABIP - .300) * 2, then his adjusted OPS's are: Papi high-leverage .937 Papi medium-leverage .931 Papi low-leverage .930
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He makes it seem almost effortless.
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Yup. IMO, everything now is all about setting up the post-season.
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A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Classic Americana. 780 millionaires v 30 billionaires in a cage match. -
Not to mention that he's been one of our best RPs over the past 2+ months. 13/3 K/W in 11.1 IPs, -0- HRs, and a 1.59/1.60 ERA FIP. We need 8 RPs like this.
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A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't worry about it at all. I don't think we will miss a game, and even if we missed 2 weeks, that still leaves about 24 weeks. -
A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Assuming everyone is okay (esp Crochet), I'd say that is about the best in the AL, conceding that others will rate the NYY over us. -
It is by far, the most mathematically precise, and most incredibly random activity in human history.
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They've had a lot of problems scoring without Judge. Schlittler-Cole-Fried is as good as it gets. But if they are scoring in the range of 4.25 rpg, then we could see a couple of 3-2 games. Those are winnable.
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Bennett could be a G1 starter in the ALDS. The ERA isn't pretty, but he has a 35/4 K/W in h is last 33 IPs. I'd need to examine the 7 HRs in 33 IPs to see if they were random, or hammered, but the 35/4 is as good as it gets.
