Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I have plenty of sin, and plenty of stones.
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Well if they're going to do that they should have just given Soto 1 billion and landed Snell to go along with Crochet.
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Because it would have to be an insane amount of deferred money to be under the CBT. Impossible to know without knowing the amount and the timeline but roughly half would have to be deferred to get back to the CBT. It's a really good guess that they're above it
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No, now they will just be pissed that he spent too much, or didn't spend it on the right player. At the end of the day they have to go out there and play games now.
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That's exactly what I thought of when I was back spacing and deleting my last response
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Buster Olney is tweeting that the NPV of the contract is $90 million. Which is insane, they'd have to have a lot of money deferred for that to happen, like around half. Feels weird. and $30 million per year still puts them over the CBT so not sure what the advantage is unless the Sox want the option to be able to be able to make an extension without going over the 2nd threshold. Or two and 3rd.
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I use Red Sox Payroll, I trust them more than anyone. Of course they only do the Sox. You can go to Cots, Fangraphs, Spotrac and get 3 different numbers. You're probably right.
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We also haven't seen the deferred money yet. Although I'm sure it probably only changed the NPV by a few million. The cap hit is actually probably somewhere around 36-37 million.
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People who aren't happy because they think it's an overpay. What wouldn't have been any overpay? what was FMV for Bregman?
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no, but I think their payroll sits only 1-2 million lower than Toronto and I figure an extension or two is coming. I also think the Sox are more likely than Toronto at this point to take on $$$ at the deadline. But perhaps not, perhaps Toronto goes hard at the deadline taking one last swing before they lose Vladdy if they're competitive come July.
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I'm not going to say that I'm not a little shocked myself. But like you said it's fine, really looking at the numbers it seems reasonable to forgoes those painful 34+ seasons.
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Without doing any actual math I'd guess that somewhere around 75% of his contract would have to deferred for them to be under the CBT. They're going over.
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If Devers looks horrible at 3B this year, I wonder how long they sit around and let him clog up the infield while Bregman is picking it up the middle. Of course, if Devers looks even just ok, one has to wonder what the Sox thoughts are on the position if Bregman opts out after this year. Sure, they have options at 2nd so maybe they move Campbell there, but maybe they view him as their LF???
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Bregman FWar the last 3 years has averaged 4.66. If players are getting around $7.5 million per in free agency and Bregman were to average that in Boston he would be worth about $105 million dollars. If Bregman is not worth that, it's because he has fallen off a cliff. If he falls off a cliff, imagine being on the hook to pay him $170 million+ over the next 6 years? That would be worse. The $5 million a year overpay, is not as extreme as people are making it out to be, and it's a more than fair premium to have the player on only 3 years and pay him until 33 years old without having to carry him at 34, 35, 36.
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I think we might be edging out Toronto now for that 5th spot. After that it's the two NY teams, LA and Philly.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
If the Sox are going over the LT this year, then it makes sense to start extending guys now. I'm not sure whom, but I think we see at least one prominent extension this spring. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I haven't heard what he said yesterday so perhaps he's changed his tune, but middle of last year Crochet had said any team trading for him better be offering an extension if they want him to pitch in the playoffs (paraphrasing). If they're negotiating, it could just be words to up that deal.....or not -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Which begs the question, when you're looking to sign or trade for a guy who has been in the league for 4-7 years with no injuries are you getting a freak of nature, or are you getting a guy whose luck is about to run out. -
We lose the #54 overall pick. But the Pivetta signing should net us something around 77 we also forfeit 500k of IFA for 2026
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Sox stats now has the payroll at $252 million
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Doubt it
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Odds are this will be less of an overpay than if they went to 6 years with him. the fact that it’s 3 years is important. The money comes off the books after that magical three years and you’re not paying for him in his mid to late 30’s if he just replicates what he’s done the last few years they’re overpaying by about $5 million a year. Let’s just hope they do the smart thing and plug him at 3B. Ill now take my victory lap for predicting the Sox budget would go over $220
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He was also only 25 last year and was a ground ball pitcher was hurt the most by Bostons poor infield defense. He has good offspeed stuff, velocity and age on his side. Plenty of room for improvment. Think of it this way, the other guys who started games last year (Houck, Pivetta, Criswell, Crawford) were either in the minors, had awful seasons much worse than Bello around their age 25-27 seasons and then they got better. Bello is still at that age where you can almost expect him to get better this season. As a young 25 year old he was better down the stretch. In the 2nd half of the season he had a 3.47 ERA with a 1.2 WHIP. He was as good if not better than everyone else in the rotation. I'm not saying he will be much more than he is now, but at his age....I can't relate to the "cringe" thing.
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I think it's likely any day now we have either Arenado or Bregman on the roster. The question after that comes down to pitching, will we add another reliever? If we don't, hopefully it's because of a clean bill of health in camp.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Relievers are so volatile year to year, with the exception of the very cream of the crop guys go in/out year to year from being good to bad. I don't think anyone can write off the Sox bullpen, there's a lot of swing and miss there. If Slaten, Chapman, Hendriks and Whitlock are healthy it can be dangerous. And unlike other years the Sox have some young guys who might really be able to contribute.
