Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I firmly believe Gio's problems were mental. You can almost draw an exact line from where he fell off vs. his struggles. However, he wasn't elite before then but he was good enough to be valuable in this rotation. If true, he could be a good #3#4 starter. If the Sox can get him back to where he was then they have a solid #1 #2 starter. The injury adds another monkey wrench into the equation. Today, more than ever guys come back fine from surgery, but surgery is still surgery and you just never know. Even if we witness best case scenario with Giolito, could we count on him down the stretch when his innings are getting high?
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It's time to pretend you're the GM of the Red Sox!
Hugh2 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Trade Duran for Crochet (3 team deal). Extend Crochet Sign Max Fried. Sign Tanner Scott Sign A.J. Minter Sign Danny Jansen Lineup: C: Wong 1B: Casas 2B: Hamilton SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Campbell CF: Rafaela RF: Anthony DH/Bench: Wilyer Abreu/Rob Refsnyder/Yoshida/Jansen/Grissom Rotation: Max Fried Garret Crochet Tanner Houck Bryan Bello Lucas Giolito Kutter Crawford Bullpen: Tanner Scott Liam Hendriks Garret Whitlock Justin Slaten A.J. Minter Michael Fulmer Brennan Bernardino ADDITIONS: (including rookies and Sox Debuts) Michael Fulmer/A.J. Minter/Liam Hendriks/Tanner Scott/Lucas Giolito/Garret Crochet/Max Fried/Roman Anthony/Kristian Campbell EDIT: OMG I can't believe I forgot about Abreu. I have removed RGON and added Wilyer back in. -
It's perfectly plausible that Giolito comes back strong, pitches like a #2 Story is healhty and we have a healthy step forward from many of our young guys and this team is a playoff caliber team. Perfectly plausible. If they actually added a few premium arms I think they can guarantee that and if they spend the money AND get improved performance they could be WS caliber.
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We will find out soon enough what Juan Soto is worth.
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Soto will also be 2 years younger than Betts was entering free agency (compared to when Betts would have), and you have factor in 5 years of inflation as well. Don't get me wrong, I think if you accounted for all those things Soto is still going to get what amounts to more, but two more years in ones prime is worth a LOT of money.
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I'd be surprised if he get $700 million. I do think he will, or at least come close to getting $600 million.
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The Red Sox did say they were going to spend money. I guess paying Pivetta and O'Neill is spending money.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think he wont decline either, but I certainly don’t think it’s a slam dunk. pitching is the most precious commodity. A team in compete now mode that needs a #3 #4 starter and believes in Pivetta might not care about a late round first round pick. also, if signing team is signing other free agents. They might not be giving up a 1st rounder for Pivetta but rather a 2nd or 3rd rounder. not betting on it, but I think there’s a chance he declines -
Some good LHP relievers on the market are A.J. Minter and Matthew Boyd. I wouldn't mind one of those guys plus Max Fried.
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Kluber and Porcello were close. If you go by FWar (if you believe in that sort of thing) Kluber had a 4.9 FWar to Porcellos 5.1 Porcello had 8 more innings, which might make up the difference, they were almost identical in value. Quintana had a really good season that year as well.
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You can also argue Chris Sale should have won the Cy-Young before Porcello that year as well. He had an amazing year that year though, and certainly pitched like an ACE, but that was a career year.
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Normally I would disagree, but until they show they're willing to go above the LT you may be right. Otherwise I'd say it's just money for one year.
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We certainly aren't better by subtracting Pivetta, my concern is we have what he is. We have #3-#5 rotation spots locked down with guys who can fill in. The team desperately needs front line starting pitching, if he's taking up a spot along with: Bello/Houck/Giolito/Crawford how much room do they have to add to that? It's still reasonable they could add one premium name to that list but I suppose I shouldn't be surprised my dream of adding two has been crushed. Guys like Criswell/Whitlock/Fitts/Winckowski are also in the mix, but they seem more likely to be easily slid into the bullpen, 6th starter/innings eater role.
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My personal choice was the year prior where I thought the Sox should go hard after Seiya Suzuki. The only reason I was ok with bringing back JBJ and letting go of Renfroe was because I thought JBJ would be a 4th outfielder defensive specialist and the Sox would go hard after Suzuki who cost $85 million over 5 years. $5 million less than Yoshida and to date a much better player.
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I think that's why those guys move around a lot too, they're easy to find and replace. I suppose that makes the Yoshida deal even more of a head scratcher.
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At an early date I noted Pivetta as a potential Q.O. and it was not received well. My logic then was teams value on pitching exceeds that of us fans......and it still does.
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That's exactly what it is. I take the contracts given and divide it by a players average WAR the last few years. So I'm actually weighing what they are being paid in real dollars by real MLB teams by FWAR. SO it actually has everything to do with market value. Players, generally speaking are getting around 6-6.5 million dollars per FWar. There are exceptions, but this is largely true. EDIT: it would be very light for Pivetta if he accepts the offer and plays for $20.1 million dollars, or $21 million or whatever it is. He would be the exception, and as we can see there's a circumstance attached to that acceptation (a guy who took a QO)
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Players are getting between 6-6.7 million per war (not taking in this year). Which puts Pivetta at about $12-$13 million per year. He takes it if he likes Boston, he rejects it if a team wants to maximize his pay day and a team gives him a 4th year. I don't think 4/50 is off the table for a team that really likes him. Of course, he has to accept of reject the Q.O. first. If that money is out there for him he may reject it, if it's not then he may just take the $21 million if he thinks he do better next year. This is why it's probably in the Sox best interest to not throw numbers around with him until he either accepts or rejects the offer.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's a qualifying offer. It's the same amount of money for Nick or any other player in baseball who accepts the offer. If he accepts its' roughly a 1 year $21 million dollar deal. -
There's a chance he declines. If a team would pay him 50 million or so, he will take that pay day. He could also work out an extension with the Sox. Something around 3/$40 seems fair. I hope this is a sign they're willing to spend, although I suppose they could be offering the QO to kill his market and sign him for less AAV because they're a bunch of cheapos and Burnes/Snell/Fried/Scott were never on their radar and it's a sign they will continue to be cheapos.
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Ok that’s the date thank you, but I think we will know in the next few hours if he’s going to get the offer or not
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They have time to accept but I THINK they have to be offered today. O’Neill has to be offered one and the Sox stay under LT for me to be completely wrong, which could be a long wait…..:and everyone will have forgot by then so I’m just screwed if he’s offered one
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I’ve been wrong before. But whether or not the Sox extend an offer to TON could be a leading indicator of this offseason budget.
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This is how I view it. sox stay below the LT limit. 5-10% chance TON gets a QO Sox go above the LT limit 50-60% chance he gets one
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If the Sox plan on going above the luxury tax my stance on this flips. I think there’s a good chance he actually does get one AND I don’t think it would be horrible if he accepts. if he gets one, I will take it as a sign (or perhaps a hope) that they actually plan on making some investment at this offseason. And not of the structural building kind