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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    The Yankees went from 82-94 wins in one season by adding Soto.
  2. Hugh2
    It's not just about additions. You have guys getting healthy again AND a lot of young core talent coming up and coming into 2nd and 3rd years. That has to factor in on top of just their free agent signings. The Yankees literally went from an 82 win team to a 94 win team by adding one really good player. Yeah they lost SOto and added Fried so what? they're still very weak and aging in many other areas. Do you think Paul Goldshmidt is going to hurt us?
  3. Hugh2
    I get not being the favorites, but is anyone really a lock to dominate the A.L. East?
  4. Hugh2
    I'd argue just signing Scott and Bregman would make us A.L. Favorites. I mean maybe not because of our record last year. But there's NO elite teams in the A.L. NYY literally went from a .500 team to a world series contender in one year by just adding Soto. With a relatively clean bill of health, youth improvement and the moves we made we have the talent to make that kind of jump. I'd be more worried about younger players in Baltimore having bounce back seasons or the talented Texas roster bouncing back before the Yankees this year. Who will still be dangerous.
  5. Hugh2
    What would a fair extension offer for Crochet?
  6. Hugh2
    Crochet is most definitely in for a big payday. Much less than what he would make if he went to free agency (assuming a clean bill of health OF COURSE) but still large. I don't know what that number is. Probably around 6/150 like I've said (maybe more) but I'd be willing to bet whatever it is will be heavily criticized around here as being too much money.
  7. Hugh2
    lol
  8. Hugh2
    I'm not arguing your arguing.
  9. Hugh2
    I disagree even more than you're disagreeing. Yamamoto was a free agent, he signed a record contract. Crochet isn't going to ask for or even get anything close to $325 million. Being a free agent at 25 and having 30 teams bid for you vs. being 25 and having to wait two years to hit free agency is not a comp. It's very different. Free agency and extensions are very different. I'll have more evidence to prove my point when Crochet signs an extension for 1/2 or less than 1/2 the money that Yamamoto got.
  10. Hugh2
    You’re right. There are various factors playing in here. His age is certainly an Inflator. For that reason Yamamoto isn’t the worse comp, but he was still a free agent, and that matters too. a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Guys take less money than their “perceived market value” to sign early. getting a guaranteed payday instead of waiting 2-4 years where you could get seriously injured holds tremendous value, which inherently means more on a case by case basis to the player. That’s a cost deflator. And for that reason Yamamoto isn’t the greatest comp. there really isn’t any great comp though.
  11. Hugh2
    yes
  12. Hugh2
    I think the Sox end up with A.J. Minter and Alex Bregman
  13. Hugh2
    Well we will find out one way sooner or later.
  14. Hugh2
    Actually it's very easy to predict how it will turn out. He pitches like an ACE, top 5 Cy Young and his price tag doubles. Or he falls off a cliff, gets injured. In which case the price tag either significantly drops, or more likely he decides to go to FA and use the last year to rebuild his value again.
  15. Hugh2
    Which is something inbetween In my very next post I said "Ideally in an extension you're overpaying for a guy during the arb years, especially pre-arb years (which doesn't apply here) but you're saving money in later years."
  16. Hugh2
    By all accounts Crochet wants to sign an extension. He wanted an extension signed for any team that traded for him last year, he's open to one this year and I'm sure the Sox traded for him with it in mind he wants an extension. Highly supported by the fact that the Sox and him are talking. Now will the Sox eff this up???? IDK maybe.
  17. Hugh2
    I don't believe I ever suggested that isn't the case. I think that's the whole point. An extension now should be more money than he'd get under team control but a little less than what he'd get in FA right now. Hypothetically that's how an extension should work, I don't think a guy getting overpaid throws the whole system out of whack, it just means the Sox made a questionable move last year.
  18. Hugh2
    I would normally agree, but how often do premium free agents who are 30 years old sign for more than 5 years? in the absence of injury these guys usually get 6+ Exceptions apply, and I'd love him here on a 3-4 years deal, and perhaps his market has collapsed and such a deal exists. But 5 years for Bregman would be very reasonable.
  19. Hugh2
    I really don't disagree with anything you guys are saying, my oc was more geared to the point OR made earlier. Ideally in an extension you're overpaying for a guy during the arb years, especially pre-arb years (which doesn't apply here) but you're saving money in later years. Given the Sox payroll status, and seemingly staying under this year, it's 100% logical and the right move to make to use that cap space THIS year for extensions. You can make them, stay under the cap and possibly be in a better position 3-5 years down the line because of this.
  20. Hugh2
    I'm not Stephen effing Hawking man, I don't have a theory of everything that makes everything make sense; teams still make stupid moves, they apparently really believe in Rafaela. Regardless, that doesn't beget the point that pre free agency extensions are for the purpose of locking guys up while they're younger and trying to save money in the long term.
  21. Hugh2
    The whole basis of any pre free agency extension is you’re paying much less than you would for comparative value in free agency. so asking the question of what a guy would get if he’s a free agent not is 100% relevant. you also don’t trade guys like Teel and Montgomery and not extend a guy. Teams who make trades like that typically do with extension in mind. if the Sox wait a year the price tag could come close to doubling. Should of just held onto Jordan Montgomery and the catcher of the future and signed a free agent pitcher at this point. if you want elite talent on your team, you’re going to have to take a risk somewhere. Not extending guys and paying 2x 3x the cost in free agency for older players is its own kind of risk.
  22. Hugh2
    I bet they'd win 78 games last year, so I have a history of under estimating them.
  23. Hugh2
    $2.00
  24. Hugh2
    90 wins....book it
  25. Hugh2
    Yes but they CAN'T get a pick for Bregman next year. So you're still losing a pick for him, not ideal if you're signing a guy for 1 year.
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