Hugh2

It's. I think that's what a career year might look like for him. Oddly enough Steamer projects him to have a 1.2 WAR next year. But they also project over 500 PA's for him and I don't see that happening.

"I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be?" .5 WAR I'll double down, teams just don't employ full time DH's. If a team rotates the DH and has 2 guys with over 300 at bats, is that on par with a team that platoons in RF? Also a team might remove a guy for a defensive replacement in RF, and other guys get at bats but that should never happen if you're a competent DH. Here's another factoid. 211 batters took swings as a RF, 338 at DH. There's only 30 teams. How can 338 guys DH for 30 teams if most teams are not employing a full time DH. I think with the position, guys settle in. If you're ONLY job is to hit, you're not playing the field then you're going to DH a lot. This is probably why a lot of teams end up with a DH who is getting 200-300 at bats, but they're not David Ortiz. Teams aren't out looking for stud starting DH's the same way they are for a RF or any position player for that matter. Honestly, Yoshida is a sunk cost. If he's hitting he can DH, if he's not he'll ride the bench more. He's been a decent hitter when healthy, if he can actually string together a healthy season with a half way decent stat line. Trading two years of his contract might be a lot easier than 3, especially if he's not coming back from injury next year. I just think he's practically immovable. I'm using BTV here and I know all our feelings on it but I'll continue regardless. They'd have to package up someone like Crawford to move all his money. NOW, with that a team is still going to have to pay Yoshidas $18 million now AND Crawfords arby years? so that rules out a small market team. And a larger market team is now going to have to make 40 man spots for both those guys. I just don't see that happening this offseason. It's not happening.

I've heard a lot of buzz about Walker Buehler. I've read that he's the profile that Andrew Bailey and Breslow absolutely love in a pitcher. While his 5.38 ERA doesn't exactly scream "I'm good sign me" he was recovering from TJ surgery, had a much better September and was absolute money in the NLCS and the World Series. He could be showing us he's returning to form of the guy he was in 2021 when he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. I wouldn't like it if that's the Sox only move, but if they signed him AND someone like Fried I think that would be a really exciting offseason. Your rotation next year could be Fried/Buehler/Houck/Bello/Crawford. That rotation could be really really good. https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/boston-red-sox-news/why-dodgers-32-million-world-series-hero-is-sneaky-good-fit-for-red-sox-jackson3#:~:text=And among the pitchers who,Sox in a recent article.

I agree, but I don't think adding one elite hitter to this team is going to be transformative. Not the same way that adding two elite pitchers would be. Keep in mind, any pitcher we trade for is going to want to get an extension, and you'd want to extend that guy, so if you're trading for a pitcher and signing Soto that's probably 60 million+ off your budget, that's is your budget pretty much. Rather, I'd like to add Fried/Scott and still have guys like Anthony/Mayer/Teel/Campbell in the system. I know there's more than one way to skid a cat, and a difference of opinion on this forum of whether to sign pitchers or trade for them, but I firmly believe all the stars are aligned to start spending the money on pitchers. That's the best way to not only improve the team but to do so in a way that can keep them competitive for years to come. With all that said, I think it's perfectly possible for the Sox to go out and sign Soto/Fried/Scott and be in a position to stay within the luxury tax limit. They would probably have to go over for a year or two, but there used to be a time when the Sox were ok with that as long as they could reset in a year or two. I also get that fans have lost faith in ownerships commitment to doing so, and that's fair, we all have. But if there was ever a time to go put your foot on the gas.....it's now. IMHO.

At the end of the day, an injured pitcher is an injured pitcher. You’re paying for that FA pitcher because you got position players on the cheap. Guys who you won’t have if you start trading them for pitching who guess what? You will have to pay anyways. All the pitchers on the trading block will either demand an extension or will become a free agent in a year or two. unless someone like Logan Gilbert becomes available. I think spending on pitchers is the way to go. think of it this way. Option 1: Soto + arb pitcher = 45-50 million Option 2: Roman Anthony + Fried\Burnes = 27-33 million either pitcher could get inured and with option one you’ll have to spend more money on filling holes in the future

I wish I could go back in time and predict Soto to the Sox. Now THAT would be bold but we don't like in that world.

Yes, that would certainly be convenient for any team looking to extend him for him to say so. But most guys who reach this level, unsurprisingly do not have that kind of mindset. It shouldn't be shocking that the best of the best of the best of the best at something are inclined to bet on themselves. Also, look at what guys are getting paid nowadays in FA, even guys who get hurt make bank. If he was going to sign a team friendly deal for the peace of mind he would have done so by now.

A. Yoshida has never put up 2 WAR, I think that's his ceiling, in that if fully healthy maybe he has one year like that. B. Those guys you listed aren't perennial 1 WAR players either, guys like Giancarlo Stanton and JD Martinez are glimpses of what they once were. C. if he did put up a 2 FWar and he probably never will, the more I think about it his ceiling might be closer to a 1.5 WAR player and if he can't stay healthy he may continue around the 1 mark but he would have been the 8th best DH. Being the 8th best at a position certainly doesn't make you elite, maybe at short stop or starting pitcher it does but certainly not DH. I think our perception of DH is skewed because we were spoiled from years of David Ortiz (ah memories). Most teams don't really even employ a full time DH anymore I think something like only 4-5 guys had over 500 PA's as a DH last year. I could be wrong on that.

Why would he sign a 3 year extension though? He's slated to hit free agency at age 27 season. Even if he's just a middle of the rotation starter he will easily get 100 million plus. I think if you're buying out the arb years for 3 years in his 20's in his prime you're either paying a lot more for that OR you're offering a lot more than 3 years.

I think there's a chance he gets more than 3 years to, and but more than 4 would certainly start to surprise me a little.

A. I'm not 100% certain Anthony starts the year in Boston but he could. B.) If we are struggling to find at bats for REF and Abreu because Anthony and Duran are smashing the baseball then who cares if they're getting less at bats. I have mentioned before that Rafaela could be a super utiliy type, and REF/ABREU could be a full time platoon. I'd like Rafaela to get reps in RF/SS/2B as well.

I'd prefer to not have a platoon at DH in general.

$25 million a year isn't what it used to be. If Crochet has a 25' and a 26' like he did in 24' how much would be get in FA? a 4-5 WAR pitcher might be worth 30-35 million a year then. And presumably you're paying him in his 20's and not getting a lot of his later 30 years. I can easily see signing him to an extension that is 25 million per, also coming from a guy who told his agent he would refuse to pitch for any team in the playoffs that traded for him unless they gave him an extension just screams "I'm going to get paid"

As in we'd still be paying him $12 million a year to play elsewhere

I do think the Sox can do better than that, but like.......$6 Million. I think that's the most salary relief they get without getting anything of real value in return. I think if we ate the whole contract we'd get a prospect who might slide into the 20-30 range, maybe a hair better. Just my guess.

I was looking at more of his statcast data, but actually some areas where he declined a little bit he actually ticked back up again in 2024. His FB velo was as fast as ever. Ok, I'm back on the Burnes wagon. Burnes or Fried.

This will be fun. Lets put ourselves on record with our BOLD....or not so bold predictions. 1. The ghost of John Henrys past posses his body. Sox sign Tanner Scott/Jack Flaherty/Max Fried/Danny Jansen/A.J. Minter 2. The big 4 will not be traded, and two start the year in Boston 3. Masataka Yoshida will NOT be traded. 4. The Red Sox move up in the draft lottery and end up with the #4 pick in the MLB draft. 5. Nick Pivetta rejects the QO and signs with another team.

Think of it this way, if Yoshida was making the league minimum how much would you be willing to give up for him? you can easily replace what he is. That's his max value if the Sox eat all the money, not worth it in my opinion.

This is why I've been saying over and over again Yoshida is not getting traded. Yoshida isn't bad, he's a good hitter, he's just not an excellent hitter and has no defense home. Sox are stuck with him, if he's healthy, and puts up a 2.0 War next year, the prospect of trading for 2 years of him might be a little more enticing to a team out there. Honestly, he's a bench bat, he makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton and seems to be able to hit for average when healthy. He's just overpaid, at this point I think he just stays here. Hopefully he offers good value off the bench and if he can stay healthy he's not a bad platoon DH. Yeah I know, not exactly the sexiest phrase "platoon DH"

A c level lower prospect

add. Tell that to nasty Nate

So he goes about 8 years inbetween TJ? ok sign him to 6 years. If there's damage to that tendon the MRI should show it. He finished the regular season just fine and on a high note. I'd roll the dice with him 1,000X before Burnes whos underlying metrics have gone down consistently the last several years or Crochet who who has never pitched more than 146 and has yet to prove he has the arm to start year in and year out. Max Fried is probably the Sox best bet at getting a true ace.....unless of course you believe Blake Snell is due for another Cy-Young year.

I don't think this is a zero sum game, I can believe Henry messed up and didn't want to dish out the money AND Covid changed the world and might have influenced Betts to just take the money and not risk going to FA.

Even if he went to free agency in a non covid world, he certainly still could of ended up signing in LA. Guys like to maximize their value and having teams bid on you can certainly do that. being uncertain about the world and the future can certainly change ones perception.

No but one can have conjecture. We had an unprecedented world event happened that led to a level of unpredictability we havent seen world wide in almost a century. It's not insane to think someone might of said to themselves "s*** maybe I'll take that 365 million now" Again we'll never know, but I'm comfortable saying it's a good chance.