I understand what you're saying and I agree that there was very strong data that supported pulling Pedro. As I've said, I think Grady made the wrong decision. I agree that we can't blame Pedro for that game either. Parenthetically, there is strong evidence for pulling most starters facing the opposing line up the third time through the order.
My point is that the difference in win expectancy between choice A and choice B in most cases is something like 2%, really bad decisions about 5%. I'm going off memory here, so don't quote me. In other words, if the team had an 85% chance of winning the game with Timlin coming in, it would still have an 80% chance of winning with Pedro. Either way, the team has a strong likelihood of winning.