A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, NHNative said:

Sad, but could be.

Sonny is at the end of his career, and wants to win a championship. I don’t think coming back to the Red Sox is his best option to accomplish that.

[NHNative]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Sonny is at the end of his career, and wants to win a championship. I don’t think coming back to the Red Sox is his best option to accomplish that.

It seems to me, this is gonna determine a lot of what will happen this winter.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, NHNative said:

It seems to me, this is gonna determine a lot of what will happen this winter.

Agree. It’s going to cost some money, but the Red Sox have to pay Sonny $10M even if he leaves.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree. It’s going to cost some money, but the Red Sox have to pay Sonny $10M even if he leaves.

The Sox need hitters first, like Sonny Corleone with the trash can lid on Carlo's wife-beating face. 

Trade Duran for Paredes, sign Springer, dump Yoshida, replace him with Sato, and let's go. 

But keep Arias, Gonzales and Jake Bennett (which fansided is somehow determined to swap, since Brez already dealt 89 young arms in the past year -- including one to get Bennett).

[NHNative]

Yup---our defense is solid that leaves two pillars. Not difficult.

Tossing and whacking...get it done Brez.

Fans wanna win in October and celebrate another ring.

Easy--peasy.

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Do you care what the Yankees depth looks look like? How does that affect the Sox?

It affects how good the depth the Sox is, because you are comparing it to other orgs. You can't just say "well, the depth stinks because I think it does." 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It affects how good the depth the Sox is, because you are comparing it to other orgs. You can't just say "well, the depth stinks because I think it does." 

I don’t compare the Red Sox depth to other orgs. All I care about is what the Red Sox have. Comparing to other orgs doesn’t help one iota when they pitch in a game.

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t compare the Red Sox depth to other orgs. All I care about is what the Red Sox have. Comparing to other orgs doesn’t help one iota when they pitch in a game.

Then it's just complaining to complain. The Sox will never have a team full of All Stars. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Sonny is at the end of his career, and wants to win a championship. I don’t think coming back to the Red Sox is his best option to accomplish that.

He seemed to enjoy being here.  I wouldnt assume that we are crossed off his list, especially for this reason.  If he wants out, I would assume it has more to do with lingering bitterness about getting pulled.

[drewski6]

Of course stacking up against other teams is relevant.  Those of use who want the sox to go get hitters, do it, when we point out things like Yankees have multiple guys who can and have hit 30 HRs and we dont.  Bringing up the comparison here (when it makes Sox look bad) but refusing to acknowledge a comparison when it makes the sox look better (e.g. no team has 5 aces) - is being unfair.

BUT - The Yankees arent trying to win every playoff game 2-1.  A pitchers best friend is a great offense.  And if we didnt have to be perfect on the run prevention side, maybe we wouldnt have to pull a pitcher in the fourth when they have first and third with one out, because the way the sox were last 2 offseasons - cant allow even a run - and thats going to be an issue.  Like in golf, if you try to sink every putt in one, you are going to make bad decisions and hurt your overall score.  

However, sometimes the defenders do lean too heavily into the comparisons....But but but the Brewers are still playing and they dont have slg, so therefore we dont need slg.

Like absolutely everything, whether or not you are being unfair by bringing up comparisons or carrying water for Breslow by bringing up comparisons - its case by case.  Some people use comparisons to give front office too much slack.    

[drewski6]

Also, I dont think the budget is as rob peter to pay paul as people think.  I dont think sonny gray being brought back means no budget left to fix offense.  I think a hard number that the team sets to stay behind is a fan construct.  Obviously there is a point where your already existing cash expenditure makes you pause on pricey additions....But I dont think the team looks at the roster decisions as interconnected as people here think....E.G. if we non tender Duran, then instead of a 10m player, we can get a 20m player.

I think that each decision is mostly an independent event.  And of course, not completely independent.  But I think if they decide they need a LF and there is a LF who they like at that cost, they wont only pursue if they can free up the money.  They may pursue more aggressively if they can make a counter move to free up the money, but I dont think its 100% we must stay below x.

I think Breslow makes a case to ownership for a free-agent, and one thing JH considers is already existing payroll.  But its not like you have to stay under 200m.  And its not like but whatabout Masa, we dont want to waste those bucks.  I think its case by case.  For example Breslow could point out that STory, Masa money is coming off soon, and its okay to overlap for one year vs JH being like you need to shave 10m by dumping those contracts and then ill let you sign player x.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Sonny is at the end of his career, and wants to win a championship. I don’t think coming back to the Red Sox is his best option to accomplish that.

Oddly that was exactly why IKF, fresh off costing Toronto a WS title with his non-existent lead, camt to the Red Sox last year.

So some players have already begun viewing Boston as a legitimate title threat.  Couple that with a testosterone-fueled ego capable of biting through sheet metal, and players will want to come here.

Remember, some of them have slightly biased views on their own skill level…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Five of our bench warmers had career bench warmer years! Pat the waiver wire scouts on the back!

Romy and Bernie last year... Jones this year with the best ever Jahmai month (on the field)... Booser going for a ring -- oops.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Oddly that was exactly why IKF, fresh off costing Toronto a WS title with his non-existent lead, camt to the Red Sox last year.

So some players have already begun viewing Boston as a legitimate title threat.  Couple that with a testosterone-fueled ego capable of biting through sheet metal, and players will want to come here.

Remember, some of them have slightly biased views on their own skill level…

3rd best record in the AL and top 10 in MLB with a slew of quality and promising players returning for hopefully full seasons: Crochet, Mead, Anthony, AR, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and others.

I think most players view the Sox as a 2027 contender and for 2028 and beyond as well. (The 2028>>> might not matter to Gray.)

We aren't a top 3-4 team, right now, but we are pretty close to top 5-7, maybe 3-4 with some luck.

Getting an elite bat added could make us top 3-4 on paper with just average luck with health and uptick/downtick results.

[mvp 78]

Putting Oviedo and Crawford in the mix among the slew of "quality and promising" players is a nasty bit of business. 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Putting Oviedo and Crawford in the mix among the slew of "quality and promising" players is a nasty bit of business. 

When you look at other team's hopes and dreams, many of their pitchers were last good around 2022-2023. Same with Crawford & Oviedo.

IMO, Crawford was a pretty good pitcher. I don't think I'm being a homer on that. I recall hearing Merloni gushing platitudes Kutter's way. Oviedo is relatively unknown, but his numbers looked okay 2-3 years ago.

I fully realize "promise" often ends up and nothing more than a dream and even a nightmare. (I recall talking about how Sandoval used to be pretty good.) Sox fans have had many letdowns on pitchers with past glory trying to regain some semblance of themselves only to end up sucking or even worse.

I think Houck is in a different class as these two. He clearly was a very good pitcher for a few years, some as a RP'er. With him it's not about age: it's about recovery and to what extent. (Crawford & Oviedo are not old, either.)

Bello is fine as a #5. He might be better than 22-26 other teams' #5. As someone pointed out, #5s are not playoff starters, but we do need to make the playoffs, too.

[mvp 78]

Oviedo could end up being serviceable in the pen. Crawford hasn't thrown a meaningful pitch in how long???

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello is fine as a #5. He might be better than 22-26 other teams' #5. As someone pointed out, #5s are not playoff starters, but we do need to make the playoffs, too.

And then we need to make sure we get to pitch our #3 playoff starter...

(especially one signed for $150 million because of his playoff pedigree)

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Oviedo could end up being serviceable in the pen. Crawford hasn't thrown a meaningful pitch in how long???

Those very critical warm up pitches for Woo's final game of the 2026 season!

Truth:

September 2024

I'll add this:

IP since 2023:

331 IP Houck (4.43)

313 IP Crawford (4.23)

222 IP Oviedo (4.26)

Crochet has just 394 IP (3.27)

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And then we need to make sure we get to pitch our #3 playoff starter...

(especially one signed for $150 million because of his playoff pedigree)

Well, if you win during the season and get the first round bye, you get 3 starters minimum.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

IP since 2023:

331 IP Houck (4.43)

313 IP Crawford (4.23)

222 IP Oviedo (4.26)

Crochet has just 394 IP (3.27)

NYY (Fried & Rodon have been mostly healthy & consistent since 2023)

320 IP Weathers (4.19)

431 IP Cole 3.09 (232 IP since '24)

_______________________

TBR (Martinez & Peralta are FAs)

233 IP McClanahan (3.32)

395 IP Rasmussen (2.71)

Who is their #3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8?

 

[moonslav59]

Best OPS since 2023 (300+ PAs unless noted)

.901 Contreras '26

.859 Anthony '25

.856 Casas '23

.851 Mead '26

.834 Duran '24

.826 Romy '25

.809 AR '23

.786 Abreu '25

.783 Yoshida '23

.761 Rafaela '26

.758 Wong '24

.741 Story '25

.721 Durbin '25

DNQ

.937 Jones 150 '25

.823 Gaspser 225 in '26

.755 Monasterio 135 in '25

.731 Eaton 90 in '25

.727 Sogard 277 in '26

.727 Seigler 173 in '26

[moonslav59]

Best Full Season since 2023 (all over 129 IP, except Bennett at 113 IP)

2.59 Crochet (205) '25

3.03 Tolle (149) '26

3.12 Houck (179) '24

3.20 Suarez (157) '26

3.35 Bello (167) '25

3.65 Bennett (113) '26

4.04 Crawford (129) '23

4.31 Oviedo (178) '23

[notin]

9 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

Trade Duran for Paredes, sign Springer, dump Yoshida, replace him with Sato, and let's go. 

 

I like Paredes, but is the rest of the plan Springer and Sato and dump Yoshida?   Bear in mind:

1. Springer is 37 and has only topped an .800 OPS once since 2022, and last year his OPS was worse than Yoshida’s.  Despite his name, really good chance Springer doesn’t bounce back.

2. Sato should work out, but the truth is he is just as unknown as Yoshida was when it comes to facing MLB pitching.

These moves make the Sox more expensive, but not necessarily any better.  If Sato is really good, and if/when Paredes does his thing at Fenway, they might improve somewhat.  
 

Of course, it might also depend on who you’re benching…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I like Paredes, but is the rest of the plan Springer and Sato and dump Yoshida?   Bear in mind:

1. Springer is 37 and has only topped an .800 OPS once since 2022, and last year his OPS was worse than Yoshida’s.  Despite his name, really good chance Springer doesn’t bounce back.

2. Sato should work out, but the truth is he is just as unknown as Yoshida was when it comes to facing MLB pitching.

These moves make the Sox more expensive, but not necessarily any better.  If Sato is really good, and if/when Paredes does his thing at Fenway, they might improve somewhat.  
 

Of course, it might also depend on who you’re benching…

Now that Murakami and Okamoto did fine, it's okay to go for Japanese batters again.

(Kinda half sarcastic.)

IMO, Suzuki will get way more money, so Sato might be out best bet/gamble/choice.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I like Paredes, but is the rest of the plan Springer and Sato and dump Yoshida?   Bear in mind:

2 years of Duran plus a decent but not great prospect might get us one year of Paredes.

Maybe we go for broke and try to get Pena on his one year left contract.

Not sure what the Astros are thinking, but they should trade away 1-2 year players, now. (Yordan has 2 years.)

I'm looking for someone better than Paredes. I doubt we get DLC or Abrams, and it seems LAA wants too much for the high K Neto. I still think trading Arias and adding a known and solid SS should be explored. I'm really high on Arias, so I'm not handing him away, dumping him or "giving up on him." I expect a great return, and no, not for 1 year of Pena. I would not go Arias straight up for Neto either.

Arias, Duran and Gonzalez or Primera for DLC?

Arias, Duran, Soto & Delzine for Abrams?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Give me Paredes over Neto any day.

Paredes, who will cost less because he's not a shortstop, had 25 HRs and 13.4% K-rate -- compared to Neto's 27 HRs and 30.5% K-rate.

Paredes' contact skills gave him a .360 On Base% with only 88 strikeouts. Neto had a .330 OBP and 215 strikeouts! 

If the Red Sox are looking for a batter to reach base in front of Contreras, it's worth noting that no other regular besides Will the Shrill had a .360 OBP in '26.

Paredes could DH if Mead plays 2B, or Paredes can play 3B and move Durbin to 2B with Mead DH, and Paredes can play 1B when Contreras DHs. Boston will find a way to make it fit because another legit bat is too vital.

I also mentioned Springer -- not as a fulltimer, but as a more trusted righty bat and outfielder than Jones (please)... with rings. Sato had big power and big whiff numbers in Japan -- which of those two are more likely to increase in the majors? 

The Sox already have a shortstop they have to pay a lot, and another waiting to take over they only have to pay minimum...

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Those very critical warm up pitches for Woo's final game of the 2026 season!

Truth:

September 2024

I'll add this:

IP since 2023:

331 IP Houck (4.43)

313 IP Crawford (4.23)

222 IP Oviedo (4.26)

Crochet has just 394 IP (3.27)

I don't feel super comfortable about Crochet's long term health either. I've already said the variance about him for next season is somewhere between season ending surgery in ST and CY. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

I like Paredes, but is the rest of the plan Springer and Sato and dump Yoshida?   Bear in mind:

1. Springer is 37 and has only topped an .800 OPS once since 2022, and last year his OPS was worse than Yoshida’s.  Despite his name, really good chance Springer doesn’t bounce back.

2. Sato should work out, but the truth is he is just as unknown as Yoshida was when it comes to facing MLB pitching.

These moves make the Sox more expensive, but not necessarily any better.  If Sato is really good, and if/when Paredes does his thing at Fenway, they might improve somewhat.  
 

Of course, it might also depend on who you’re benching…

When Masa was signed, most evaluators were very bearish on him and did not like the contract he was given. I haven't heard many people being down on Sato in a similar manner. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Now that Murakami and Okamoto did fine, it's okay to go for Japanese batters again.

(Kinda half sarcastic.)

IMO, Suzuki will get way more money, so Sato might be out best bet/gamble/choice.

You can just look at the swing profiles and see that Sato has power that could translate to MLB where Masa has more of a slap hitter swing.