A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 1:58 PM, drewski6 said:

What about the other three quarters of the season

It was half, not three quarters.  What might be a little more interesting is that we didn't really approach mediocrity in any of the 6 months.  We had a sOPS+ of 85, 109, 86, 112, 122, and 81.  We had no months between 86-108.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 2:09 PM, mvp 78 said:

They fell to 26th because Duran stopped hitting

I did this exercise several times during the season, but the decline in hitting was:

• Duran -147 (in OPS)
• Story -120 and injured
• Anthony -124 and injured
• Narvaez -191

No one had that on their dance card.  And replacing our other 5 hitters, with anyone, would not have overcome that.

[notin]

9 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I think the Reds would have wanted one of those guys PLUS Arias and they also wanted an overpay for Elly too.  They likley were being offered over pays and it still wasn't enough to get them to budge.  Something like Abreu/Arias+ or of equal value is likely what they wanted. 

Arias and Abreu is a good starting package.  But reportedly Cincy wants “an overpay.”

At what point do you stop and think “no, too much”? 

 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Mead or Sato?  I assume Mead starts at 2B and Sato replaces Yoshida at DH.

Mead is not known for defense, either, but Sato at DH or LF makes the most sense. Anthony is likely better on LF defense than Sato, but keeping Anthony healthy is a consideration.

I'd be fine with...

1. L-Anthony LF

2. R-Mead 2B

3. L- Sato DH

4. R-Contreras 1B

5. L-Abreu RF

6. S- Rutschman C

7. R- Story SS

8. R- Durbin 3B

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: R-Wong, S-Sogard, L Yoshida and 1 from L- Romy, R-Jones or R-White (Romy has an option)

AAA on the 40:

S- Gasper (IL)

L- Romy

S- Seigler

R- Monasterio

R- Campbell

L- Cheng

R- Eaton (out of options)

Rule 5: Barnnon or Jo Garcia?

Arias?

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I did this exercise several times during the season, but the decline in hitting was:

• Duran -147 (in OPS)
• Story -120 and injured
• Anthony -124 and injured
• Narvaez -191

No one had that on their dance card.  And replacing our other 5 hitters, with anyone, would not have overcome that.

Romy had a massive decline and was 7th in PAs in 2025. (-154)

Mayer (-80) went down a lot, too and got injured and traded. He only had 136 PAs in 2025, so this was not major.

Abreu went down a little. (-13, but +1 in OPS+)

Yoshida did better but missed a lot of time, again.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Arias and Abreu is a good starting package.  But reportedly Cincy wants “an overpay.”

At what point do you stop and think “no, too much”? 

 

I don't think that is "too much," but we'd have to sign Suzuki or Sato to make up for the OF loss. We simply cannot go with Duran FT or even as a platoon in 2027.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, a significant overpay.  Abreu and Elly have very similar bWARs over the one, two-, and three-year periods.  I'd go Abreu+ or Arias++, but not both.

BTV actually gives Arias plus Abreu a surplus value of $96mill and De La Cruz a surplus value of $93mill on his own.

Now does Cincy’s settle for “equal value” here? Not likely.  But what do they really need?  They really are loaded with pitching, especially if Hunter Greene is ever healthy.  Their lineup is fairly weak after De La Cruz (SS), Stewart (1b), Stephenson (C), and maybe Bleday (LF/RF).  Not sure how they feel about Ke’Bryan Hayes, but if nothing else, they certainly have weaker options in CF, RF, and 2b assuming at some point they realize Matt McLain is just not working out.

Arias and Abreu does make sense.  But what else would they want? Doubtful Mikey Romero maked their belly button pucker and unpucker with glee..

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think that is "too much," but we'd have to sign Suzuki or Sato to make up for the OF loss. We simply cannot go with Duran FT or even as a platoon in 2027.

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras 

2b: Story 

3b: Durbin

SS: De La Cruz

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony 

DH: Mead

It’s not horrible, regardless of what drewski says.  But there are opportunities to upgrade. Duran would need to bounce back, hopefully to 2025 levels.

Bring back Gray or add local boy Michael King and the Sox do look a lot better…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

BTV actually gives Arias plus Abreu a surplus value of $96mill and De La Cruz a surplus value of $93mill on his own.

Now does Cincy’s settle for “equal value” here? Not likely.  But what do they really need?  They really are loaded with pitching, especially if Hunter Greene is ever healthy.  Their lineup is fairly weak after De La Cruz (SS), Stewart (1b), Stephenson (C), and maybe Bleday (LF/RF).  Not sure how they feel about Ke’Bryan Hayes, but if nothing else, they certainly have weaker options in CF, RF, and 2b assuming at some point they realize Matt McLain is just not working out.

Arias and Abreu does make sense.  But what else would they want? Doubtful Mikey Romero maked their belly button pucker and unpucker with glee..

We could certainly add Romero or even Moansterio or Seigler, if they want a 2Bman. (Romy?)

My main issue with this trade, which I'd do, is how to replace Abreu. RF is very important in Fenway and I don't want Anthony in RF and a Duran-White/Jones platoon in LF.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras 

2b: Story 

3b: Durbin

SS: De La Cruz

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony 

DH: Mead

It’s not horrible, regardless of what drewski says.  But there are opportunities to upgrade. Duran would need to bounce back, hopefully to 2025 levels.

Bring back Gray or add local boy Michael King and the Sox do look a lot better…

Is Drewski saying just adding de la Cruz is not enough?

I cannot accept Duran in LF or even a Duran platoon with Jones or White. I'd almost rather have Yoshida/Jones than Duran, and that's not even counting the $10-11M paid to Duran.

I'm thinking some $11M OF'er can be signed as a FA.

Would Ian Happ (Switch hitter) cost much more than $11M?

RHB Taylor Ward on a rebound?

Is RHB Laureano better than Duran?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 2:24 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm all for signing batters to longer deals,

It depends on the length and on whether they are a difference-maker.  I went to the MLBR 2023-24 FA listing.  The younger guys were mostly fine.  The older guys in the top-20?

• Chapman
• Teoscar Hernandez
• Candelario
• Gurriel
• Soler
• JD Martinez

By a show of hands, how many of you want even a single one of those guys?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 3:56 PM, drewski6 said:

Im still absolutely shocked we had a chance to get Elly and didnt close.  Over Arias? A 5'11 D first guy is gonna stop you from getting a 40HR-40SB 6 ft 6, absolute freak of an athlete?

To me, that is so heartbreaking.

Did Breslow say that we had an offer of Elly for Arias?  Because:

• I can't believe that we would decline that offer.
• I can't believe that the Reds would make that offer.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 5:16 PM, drewski6 said:

James wood is like 6'7, ditto JOrdan Walker, ditto Elly De La Cruz.

Im more excited for Gonzalez who is 6'6 270 lbs than  I am for the 170 lb , 5'11 Arias.  Physics are real.

If you are under 6'1 , get off my team.

4 of the top 10 offensive WAR players in the AL are < 6'1.  6 of the top 10 in the NL < 6'1.  Possibly both MVPs.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 5:29 PM, drewski6 said:

You want to count on Arias being a once in a lifetime player to fix our offense....

Who's counting on Arias being a once in a lifetime player?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/12/2026 at 5:29 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'd be fine with trading Arias and some other prospects for Abrams

If you are starting Story at SS and Abrams at 2nd, you might be worse than if you started Arias at SS and Mead at 2nd.

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, a significant overpay.  Abreu and Elly have very similar bWARs over the one, two-, and three-year periods.  I'd go Abreu+ or Arias++, but not both.

Generational 24 year old SS, for a never gonna be all star streaky bat… that Plays solid defense. I 1000000% make the trade tomorrow if reds say yes. 

[UtahSox]

6 hours ago, notin said:

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras 

2b: Story 

3b: Durbin

SS: De La Cruz

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony 

DH: Mead

It’s not horrible, regardless of what drewski says.  But there are opportunities to upgrade. Duran would need to bounce back, hopefully to 2025 levels.

Bring back Gray or add local boy Michael King and the Sox do look a lot better…

Agree on almost all of it……Love the idea of De La Cruz…. On Duran I just believe Duran is done in Boston I think it’s just best for everyone. 

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras 

2b: Story 

3b: Durbin

SS: De La Cruz

LF: Mead/ Yoshida

CF: Rafaela

RF: Anthony 

DH: gasper/ Mead

i love the idea of Taylor Ward his OBP% and ability to hit the long ball (2025) or maybe a little more expensive but probably best case scenario would be Trent Grisham/ Steven Kwan. 
 

 

[notin]

10 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Generational 24 year old SS, for a never gonna be all star streaky bat… that Plays solid defense. I 1000000% make the trade tomorrow if reds say yes. 

Would you trade Abreu, Arias and Bennett for De La Cruz?

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I did this exercise several times during the season, but the decline in hitting was:

• Duran -147 (in OPS)
• Story -120 and injured
• Anthony -124 and injured
• Narvaez -191

No one had that on their dance card.  And replacing our other 5 hitters, with anyone, would not have overcome that.

You didn't have Trevor Story getting injured on your dance card? I'm also not clear on why it matters if those players were projected for that or not. That's where they ended up. We now have an oft injured SS, a declining LFer and a post prospect Roman who is still injured. Not sure anyone had a clear idea on what Narvaez should have done in year 2 anyway. He had a 619 OPS the second half of '25, which was probably a better indicator of his performance going forward rather than his 982 OPS from 5/4 - 6/8/25. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Did Breslow say that we had an offer of Elly for Arias?  Because:

• I can't believe that we would decline that offer.
• I can't believe that the Reds would make that offer.

No.

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Arias and Abreu is a good starting package.  But reportedly Cincy wants “an overpay.”

At what point do you stop and think “no, too much”? 

 

When Tolle gets mentioned.

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Generational 24 year old SS, for a never gonna be all star streaky bat… that Plays solid defense. I 1000000% make the trade tomorrow if reds say yes. 

Yup.  And if we made the trade he would instantly love it.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is Drewski saying just adding de la Cruz is not enough?

I cannot accept Duran in LF or even a Duran platoon with Jones or White. I'd almost rather have Yoshida/Jones than Duran, and that's not even counting the $10-11M paid to Duran.

I'm thinking some $11M OF'er can be signed as a FA.

Would Ian Happ (Switch hitter) cost much more than $11M?

RHB Taylor Ward on a rebound?

Is RHB Laureano better than Duran?

I dont hate it, but I see Durbin as a backup.  And I would put Mead at 3b and, Roman at DH and sign an OF'er.

Think of Durbin on the bench as a sixth starter, he'll get PLENTY of use.  And hes even a better backup SS than Monasterio IMO.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You didn't have Trevor Story getting injured on your dance card? I'm also not clear on why it matters if those players were projected for that or not. That's where they ended up. We now have an oft injured SS, a declining LFer and a post prospect Roman who is still injured. Not sure anyone had a clear idea on what Narvaez should have done in year 2 anyway. He had a 619 OPS the second half of '25, which was probably a better indicator of his performance going forward rather than his 982 OPS from 5/4 - 6/8/25. 

Its just excuse making for failing to fix the offense.  We went down looking at strikes just like we did in 2025.  

Hit or get hitters is quite obvious, yet he argues.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Would you trade Abreu, Arias and Bennett for De La Cruz?

YES!!!!

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You didn't have Trevor Story getting injured on your dance card? I'm also not clear on why it matters if those players were projected for that or not.

It matters because, in the off-season, you have guys that you are not replacing under almost any circumstances.  With the usual disclosure that 'anything can happen', we weren't replacing Story (4.1 bWAR in 2025), Duran (4.9), Narvaez (2.8), or Anthony.

The only realistic moves were DH (if we moved both Duran and Yoshida), 1B (we acquired Contreras), or 2B (unlikely to have given up on Mayer).

[drewski6]

37 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It matters because, in the off-season, you have guys that you are not replacing under almost any circumstances.  With the usual disclosure that 'anything can happen', we weren't replacing Story (4.1 bWAR in 2025), Duran (4.9), Narvaez (2.8), or Anthony.

The only realistic moves were DH (if we moved both Duran and Yoshida), 1B (we acquired Contreras), or 2B (unlikely to have given up on Mayer).

These are guys on the back nine of their deals.  YOu dont let it stop you from putting together a good team.

Your premise is wrong.

Nobody is looking at teams through the matrix of checking off positions or players like a checklist.  You assemble as much thud as you can , cuz you know injuries will happen.

Multiple years in a row now, we have reached the playoffs with an absolutely anemic offense, and both times youve dialed up the excuse machine.

And here you are begging for more of the same.  We dont love boring seasons and abusive bosses and all the weird things that you randomly talk about.

What the Red Sox need, is a philosophical mindset change.  Get big dudes who hit the ball far.  And you have nothing, if you dont have that.

[drewski6]

We dont love 5 years running with 0 playoff series wins.  Some of us want.....a change.

[drewski6]

Back to when we had sluggers, you know, when we would win playoff series.

Its not hard, you just have to want to win, not want to find a way to excuse away whats failed.

Pitching, defense, and OBP approach has failed us multiple years running.

Package em up, and ship em out

A whole new teammmmm

[drewski6]

Keep the jerseys, ditch the players wearing em.