A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think that Manny and Ortiz kind of backed up each other more than whomever would take over LF or DH if one had to miss a game or a spell of games.  But I do see the value in having capable hitters with minor league options like Gasper for example.  But still, Id like to see us go into next year, with sluggers up and down the lineup, because I dont think its realistic to think that we can have non starting players that can come in and make a difference with the bat.  But Gasper is likely one.  

Your initial worry wasn't Manny and Ortiz backed up each other, but what if one of them got injured? 

Manny and Papi didn't miss considerable time while they were together from 03-07. We don't really know what would have happened. 

Yes, they need more sluggers! Some may need to be on the bench too! 

[drewski6]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Only 11 players hit 35 HR last season. Only 5 went 35-100. People ran Devers away. Sox chose not to sign Schwarber, Alonso or Murakami last offseason. I don't think there's a chance they sign Lowe this offseason. I just don't see this team having a 35 HR guy in the near future. 

Well then I predict another third or fourth place finish, and an easy out from the playoffs.

But if we cant get 35 HR, can we at least get 60+ extra base hits?  I can live with Durbin only having 13 HRs, but you combine that with only one triple, and only 25 doubles, its not enough.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think that Manny and Ortiz kind of backed up each other more than whomever would take over LF or DH if one had to miss a game or a spell of games.  But I do see the value in having capable hitters with minor league options like Gasper for example.  But still, Id like to see us go into next year, with sluggers up and down the lineup, because I dont think its realistic to think that we can have non starting players that can come in and make a difference with the bat.  But Gasper is likely one.  

Agreed.

Do you have any hopes for Mead?

I realize his 17 HRs and .851 OPS this year was just a half season in an unremarkable career, but he's 25.  It's not like a 21 y/o Grissom batting .790 in his first quarter season of his career, but I understand Mead is no cinch at being an Silver Slugger either.

I think AR can raise our Catching OPS bt 100 or maybe even 150 points, but he won't hit 35-100.

I keep waiting for Abreu to "bust out," but I'm resigned to accepting him as he is a more than good enough.

I'm one of the few that see upgrading Durbin as a good idea, I doubt Brez is even considering it.

Rafaela is my favorite player, but his offense has likely peaked, and we could see a decline in 2027 from him. I know D means more to me than you, but I keep  him around.

I'd like to see us add Sato and doubt we outbid everyone for Suzuki. BLowe sucks vs LHPs and Arozena could be the next Yoshida. We don't have the trade capital to get a top quality bat, unless we part with Arias or Anthony plus others.

[NHNative]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is on the block?

HRs 2025-2026

101 Schwarber (156 XBH)

87 Caminero (141 XBH)

85 Ohtani (159 XBH but 99 in 2024!)

83 Raleigh (122)

81 Alonso (127 XBH)

(79 Sato with 160 XBHs- is more than any above.)

76 PCR

75 E Suarez

72 Devers & Goodman

71 Judge

70 Soto & Olson

67 Rice

66 B Lowe (FA)

61 Wood

60 Buxton & Adell

58 Suzuki (FA)

57 Machado, Torkelson & Kurtz

56 Harper & C Walker

54 J Rod, Langeliers & Busch

53 Arozena (FA,) Carroll & Neto

52 Lindor, Grisham, Abrams, de la Cruz & Montgomery

51 Adames & S Perez

50 KMarte, Tatis,Pages & Chisholm (FA)

 

Suzuki and Sato.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

Do you have any hopes for Mead?

I realize his 17 HRs and .851 OPS this year was just a half season in an unremarkable career, but he's 25.  It's not like a 21 y/o Grissom batting .790 in his first quarter season of his career, but I understand Mead is no cinch at being an Silver Slugger either.

I think AR can raise our Catching OPS bt 100 or maybe even 150 points, but he won't hit 35-100.

I keep waiting for Abreu to "bust out," but I'm resigned to accepting him as he is a more than good enough.

I'm one of the few that see upgrading Durbin as a good idea, I doubt Brez is even considering it.

Rafaela is my favorite player, but his offense has likely peaked, and we could see a decline in 2027 from him. I know D means more to me than you, but I keep  him around.

I'd like to see us add Sato and doubt we outbid everyone for Suzuki. BLowe sucks vs LHPs and Arozena could be the next Yoshida. We don't have the trade capital to get a top quality bat, unless we part with Arias or Anthony plus others.

Yes, I think that Mead and Adley are giving us a significantly higher starting point than we would otherwise have.  Im happy for them.  What I dont want , is someone to come along and tell me that Im too greedy for suggesting we still try to add an elite hitter. Or that the offense, with these two, if stays healthy, might be top 15 in OBP.  I want to strive to be top ...... ONE in offense.

Not saying we need to be best offense. Just saying that we shouldnt accept settling for top 10 or top 12.

Im a cant have enough thud kinda guy.  Whereas people say "cant get enough pitching" - I say "cant get enough guys who meet the ball out in front and drive it with their legs"  Im not a fan of staying back, Im not a fan of working counts....Im a fan of the mindset that an 0-0 count is a fastbll count and you want to jump on the first thing straight.

 

[drewski6]

I want guys to want to swing the bat.  

[drewski6]

If you wave at a slider running away from you on a 2-2 count, I say : how did you let the count get that deep?  Did you not get any fastballs?

[drewski6]

Im still absolutely shocked we had a chance to get Elly and didnt close.  Over Arias? A 5'11 D first guy is gonna stop you from getting a 40HR-40SB 6 ft 6, absolute freak of an athlete?

To me, that is so heartbreaking.

[drewski6]

Elly is exactly the type of player we need.  

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well then I predict another third or fourth place finish, and an easy out from the playoffs.

But if we cant get 35 HR, can we at least get 60+ extra base hits?  I can live with Durbin only having 13 HRs, but you combine that with only one triple, and only 25 doubles, its not enough.

17 players had 60+ XBHs and a few more would have with 600-650 PAs.

Devers was 4th with 74. 

Abrams & Alonso 67.

Bregman 63 & Suzuki 58.

Abreu & Schwarber 66.

BLowe 65

Neto & Bregman 63.

Arenado & KMarte 56

Contreras had 51 in 535 PAs, so about 61 per 650.

Rafaela had 51 in 576, so about 57 per 650.

Gasper was near 60 per 650 (20 in 225)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, I think that Mead and Adley are giving us a significantly higher starting point than we would otherwise have.  Im happy for them.  What I dont want , is someone to come along and tell me that Im too greedy for suggesting we still try to add an elite hitter. 

That won't be me, despite me often saying we need pitching.

My top priority would be someone like Sato or de la Cruz. Maybe Abrams.

I'm willing to give up Arias, Valera, Delzine & Soto.

I can be talked into Arias and Justin Gonzales or Primera.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Elly is exactly the type of player we need.  

You’re probably going to have to start with little A, and go from there, and it most likely take more than last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe some of us have defense , chase value, and focus on homegrown youngsters fatigue.  Arias is a 5'11 D first SS.  I dont think hes coming to save the singles hitting, walk drawing, plate passives that the Red Sox have become.  

No, but could he inject some youthful exuberance into this morbid offense? Who knows, chances are he becomes part of the K machine comprised of other top prospects and stiff veterans. 

But what if he doesn't flop -- young guys come up and find instant success every year, and get votes for AL Rookie of the Year (Boston has had its share the past half century).

Lookit Joshua Baez -- that kid literally from Boston and not Cohasett or Walpole who led the minors in longballs: 3 HRs in his first big league game! And then he only  struck out 33 times in his next 100 times up.

[notin]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well then I predict another third or fourth place finish, and an easy out from the playoffs.

But if we cant get 35 HR, can we at least get 60+ extra base hits?  I can live with Durbin only having 13 HRs, but you combine that with only one triple, and only 25 doubles, it’s not enough.

If a 35 HR hitter is vital to winning, bear in mind only one hitter (Caminero) of the 11 to hit 35 Hr is still playing.

At one point you saud you wanted 20HR hitters up and down the lineup.

Well if the lineup has:

C: Rutschman

1b: Contreras

2b: Mead

3b: Durbin

SS: Story

LF : Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Anthony

then that’s pretty much what you have.  Rafaela, Durbin, Mead and Anthony have not hit 20HRs yet.  But Mead had 17 in 285 ABs. Rafaela was close with 18.  Anthony certainly has the power to hit 20.   
 

That just leaves Durbin as the least likely.  Is that really so bad?

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re probably going to have to start with little A, and go from there, and it most likely take more than last year.

That’s not unrealistic.

There’s certainly a chance they insist on Tolle or no deal.  
 

We here can’t compare it to last year’s price, since none of us know it.  But even if it’s less, it’s not going to be noticeably less…

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s not unrealistic.

There’s certainly a chance they insist on Tolle or no deal.  
 

We here can’t compare it to last year’s price, since none of us know it.  But even if it’s less, it’s not going to be noticeably less…

I am going on the assumption that little A has lost some of his luster since the WBC, and his two month paid vacation in Florida this past year.

[Old Red]

52 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you wave at a slider running away from you on a 2-2 count, I say : how did you let the count get that deep?  Did you not get any fastballs?

Boggs could get away with that, because after watching 2 strikes down the middle he could foul off 6-7 tough pitches just to get to another pitch he could hit. Casas, and little A would go down 0-2 and then swing at a bad pitch, or take one on the corner for strike three.

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Not saying we need to be best offense. Just saying that we shouldnt accept settling for top 10 or top 12.

Last year, we were 7th in runs and 9th in SLG. (15th in HRs.)

Many of us felt we could be top 10-12 in 2026, but the better pitching and defense would more than make up for the possible drop on offense.

The drop was not really a given. We ended up seeing many of our batter tank in big ways- some by over 100-150. I won't speak to injuries, as the pitching saw most of those, but the drops were unforeseen and extreme. The only regular that improved his OPS was Rafaela, and it was by just 30 points.

A balanced approach can work, and just because we tried to do just that, and it failed doesn't prove it can't work. That being said, I think we moved up the overall quality of "the balance" by adding Mead & AR, but I'm 100% with you and others that we need to add an elite bat- somewhere, somehow and some way. I suppose two significant upgrades might be enough, too.

We saw Abreu's OPS fall 23 points.

-67 Anthony

-80 Romy

-81 Duran

-82 Story

-90 Mayer

-144 Narvaez

Only Mayer was not a top 9 PA guy on the 2025 team.

Who knows if we can count on bouncebacks, and even if we see many, maybe some others tank. I think Mead & ER get us half way there.

We need Sato or Suzuki.

(de la Cruz or Abrams would empty the farm, but if JH won't spend, I'd do it.)

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Boggs could get away with that, because after watching 2 strikes down the middle he could foul off 6-7 tough pitches just to get to another pitch he could hit. Casas, and little A would go down 0-2 and then swing at a bad pitch, or take one on the corner for strike three.

I thought Casas had a great eye, and while taking the third strike can be extremely frustrating, his OBP made it justifiable, to me.

Who knows, if he can ever get it back. If he doesn't the high K rate will make it worse than a guy with the same numbers and half the Ks.

2022-2026 (500+ PAs)

BB%

13.7 Casas

10.7 Devers & Refsnyder

9.4 Abreu

9.0 Bogey

8.7 JD

8.1 Turner

OBP

.377 Bogey

.364 Ref

.361 Raf

.348 Casas

Only 2 players had a higher SLG (,448) and more PAs (952) than Casas: Devers & Duran. (Abreu would, if he had 3 more PAs)

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

17 players had 60+ XBHs and a few more would have with 600-650 PAs.

Devers was 4th with 74. 

Abrams & Alonso 67.

Bregman 63 & Suzuki 58.

Abreu & Schwarber 66.

BLowe 65

Neto & Bregman 63.

Arenado & KMarte 56

Contreras had 51 in 535 PAs, so about 61 per 650.

Rafaela had 51 in 576, so about 57 per 650.

Gasper was near 60 per 650 (20 in 225)

So we had 2, lets count Gasper + Contreras as one (first base) and Abreu as 2.  Had we also had Devers' 74 or Bregmans 63 or Shwarbers 66, I suspect we would have been closer to the middle in offense vs where we were.
Good breakdown.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

No, but could he inject some youthful exuberance into this morbid offense? Who knows, chances are he becomes part of the K machine comprised of other top prospects and stiff veterans. 

But what if he doesn't flop -- young guys come up and find instant success every year, and get votes for AL Rookie of the Year (Boston has had its share the past half century).

Lookit Joshua Baez -- that kid literally from Boston and not Cohasett or Walpole who led the minors in longballs: 3 HRs in his first big league game! And then he only  struck out 33 times in his next 100 times up.

Joshua Baez is 6'3.  Im sick of the average sized joes.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Last year, we were 7th in runs and 9th in SLG. (15th in HRs.)

Many of us felt we could be top 10-12 in 2026, but the better pitching and defense would more than make up for the possible drop on offense.

The drop was not really a given. We ended up seeing many of our batter tank in big ways- some by over 100-150. I won't speak to injuries, as the pitching saw most of those, but the drops were unforeseen and extreme. The only regular that improved his OPS was Rafaela, and it was by just 30 points.

A balanced approach can work, and just because we tried to do just that, and it failed doesn't prove it can't work. That being said, I think we moved up the overall quality of "the balance" by adding Mead & AR, but I'm 100% with you and others that we need to add an elite bat- somewhere, somehow and some way. I suppose two significant upgrades might be enough, too.

We saw Abreu's OPS fall 23 points.

-67 Anthony

-80 Romy

-81 Duran

-82 Story

-90 Mayer

-144 Narvaez

Only Mayer was not a top 9 PA guy on the 2025 team.

Who knows if we can count on bouncebacks, and even if we see many, maybe some others tank. I think Mead & ER get us half way there.

We need Sato or Suzuki.

(de la Cruz or Abrams would empty the farm, but if JH won't spend, I'd do it.)

The Red Sox hit 23 less homers this year compared to 2025, and scored 97 less runs. To big of a drop even with the good pitching, and better D.

[drewski6]

James wood is like 6'7, ditto JOrdan Walker, ditto Elly De La Cruz.

Im more excited for Gonzalez who is 6'6 270 lbs than  I am for the 170 lb , 5'11 Arias.  Physics are real.

If you are under 6'1 , get off my team.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

This.

Both Monasterio and Sogard were in the top 8 for plate appearances.  Not a good sign when two utility infielders achieve that…

No, but it seems to happen to us a lot- maybe because our middle infield has been a circus carousel for many years.

In 2025, Romy was 7th in PAs and Toro 10th.

in 2024, DHam was 8th (Wong was 4th)

[drewski6]

On a team that was 26th in slug, dont look for 170 lb'ers to save you.  He doesnt have the body to slug.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox hit 23 less homers this year compared to 2025, and scored 97 less runs. To big of a drop even with the good pitching, and better D.

No doubt that was the crushing flaw.

Losing so many pitchers didn't help, but other teams lost a lot, too.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

On a team that was 26th in slug, dont look for 170 lb'ers to save you.  He doesnt have the body to slug.

Maybe 6-1 and 225 Mead can kapow us into the top of the rankings.

[drewski6]

Arias isnt fast enough or big enough or strong enough to save our offense.  Hes a defense first, average speed, regular joe body.  He could be a solid player in MLB, but the league is trending towards the freaks.  The freak athletes. 

Im not saying hes a bust, Im just saying that if someone says we lost too many homeruns and slug, and you point to a 5'1 1 guy whose best tool is his glove....I ask if you heard what I said.  

Id rather have Story.  Because I know that Story has the strength for extra base hitting.  I think going from Story to Arias, we are going down in slg, extra base hits...

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you are under 6'1 , get off my team.

No room at the inn for Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.

Hell, I think Hack Wilson was just 5-6 and Mel Ott 5-9.

Joe Morgan... Jose Altuve...

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No room at the inn for Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.

Hell, I think Hack Wilson was just 5-6 and Mel Ott 5-9.

Joe Morgan... Jose Altuve...

You want to count on Arias being a once in a lifetime player to fix our offense....Because Im just saying that maybe go get some freak athletes with forearms that barely fit through the door are a better bet to stop this team from losing slug.

Replacing Story with ARias is most likely not going to fix your lack of power hitting.  Story is the only guy who had extra base hits in playoffs last 2 years.