Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[notin]

2 hours ago, JimEd said:

can you not read? i never said there was anything wrong or unusual with giving out pre-arb extensions. i said HIS extension was unwarranted. and idiotic. i think it's fine -in some cases.

Again even the ones that don’t work out cover the ones that do.

For example, Tampa was at the forefront of this trend when they extended Evan Longoria for 6 years after all of 6 games.  His deal had a potential value of $44mill if all his incentives, etc. hit.

3 years later, the Rays extended Matt Moore for 5(?) years $15mill.  Moore never panned out as expected.  But Longoria was easily worth the entire $60mill and then some.  And had the Rays waited, they very likely pay up much more for Longoria alone…

[Randy Red Sox]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Like you now.

And again, more evidence mounting.

can you two start your own thread and take your discussion/debate/fight over there

[Hitch]

16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why DFA him now? I guess it doesn't make sense to me except for opening up a roster spot. There are other guys on there I'd move on from first TBH rather than further hurting his ego. 

I'd have personally done it in the hope someone would have rolled the dice and taken him.

I hold no optimism over KC's ability to make it back and be good.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'd have personally done it in the hope someone would have rolled the dice and taken him.

I hold no optimism over KC's ability to make it back and be good.

If the new CBA initiates a floor, maybe someone would be more likely to take a flyer in KC.

[Hitch]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the new CBA initiates a floor, maybe someone would be more likely to take a flyer in KC.

Maybe, but I'd rather not have to take the risk. The floor is only coming in if they agree to a cap, which seems to be completely off the table for players. 

Bottom line - would I like to get away from this contract? Yes. 

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No. I don't think what he is doing now would get him paid more in ARB than what his contract is earning him. He's had one season over 100 OPS+ and the metrics aren't kind to him. Guys that are glove first aren't paid highly on the open market or in arbitration. 

Rafaela is a 4 fWAR outfielder with a $6mill AAV, and signed an 8 year deal, significantly longer than the current arb years.  In free agency, he blows that deal away…

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Maybe, but I'd rather not have to take the risk. The floor is only coming in if they agree to a cap, which seems to be completely off the table for players. 

Bottom line - would I like to get away from this contract? Yes. 

I'm not sure anyone disagrees, and I might have one of the most hopeful views of his future on this site.

Why not dangle him out there? If someone wants him, great, if they don't we stash him in AAA and open up a 40 man slot for someone else.

Here is his remaining pay structure which is significantly back-end loaded:

27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)

He doesn't make all that much, now.

$55M/6, assuming the $4M buyout of 2033.

If he could turn things around, that could be a decent deal, but that if is gigantic.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Rafaela is a 4 fWAR outfielder with a $6mill AAV, and signed an 8 year deal, significantly longer than the current arb years.  In free agency, he blows that deal away…

MVP will never admit that gamble paid off (or likely will.)

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure anyone disagrees, and I might have one of the most hopeful views of his future on this site.

Why not dangle him out there? If someone wants him, great, if they don't we stash him in AAA and open up a 40 man slot for someone else.

Here is his remaining pay structure which is significantly back-end loaded:

27:$3M, 28:$4M, 29:$6M, 30:$9M, 31:$13M, 32:$16M, 33:$19M club option ($4M buyout), 34:$21M club option (no buyout)

He doesn't make all that much, now.

$55M/6, assuming the $4M buyout of 2033.

If he could turn things around, that could be a decent deal, but that if is gigantic.

It's more the yearly tax burden. Obviously, if he can turn it around he would be a real asset at this price, but I just don't think he can make it to the level we need. Personally, I don't see anyone willing to give us something for him, hence I would have tried to get rid. 

Maybe the tax line becomes obsolete with the new agreement, but I'd be surprised. 

[Hitch]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

Rafaela is a 4 fWAR outfielder with a $6mill AAV, and signed an 8 year deal, significantly longer than the current arb years.  In free agency, he blows that deal away…

The Rafaela deal was a brilliant piece of business by us. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It's more the yearly tax burden. Obviously, if he can turn it around he would be a real asset at this price, but I just don't think he can make it to the level we need. Personally, I don't see anyone willing to give us something for him, hence I would have tried to get rid. 

Maybe the tax line becomes obsolete with the new agreement, but I'd be surprised. 

Agreed, the $7.5M CBT burden is just high enough to make a difference.

Some team that is never approaches the tax line may not care about that, but the back-end nature of his deal will scare almost every lower budget team away.

The thing is, all it takes is one GM to think he's got higher hopes. Maybe their scouts see a tweak they can make and get him back on track.

We could sure use that $7.5M + Duran's $11M (by trading him, too) and add an $18M AAV quality player.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, the $7.5M CBT burden is just high enough to make a difference.

Maybe, maybe not, depending on cash v CBT.  Right now, it is only a $3.25M in cash.  We can easily afford the cash component.  While the $7.5M CBT bites a little, it is likely only for one year.  One more bad year, and KC easily gets demoted from the 40-man, and there is a -0- CBT hit in 2028.

[drewski6]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Maybe, maybe not, depending on cash v CBT.  Right now, it is only a $3.25M in cash.  We can easily afford the cash component.  While the $7.5M CBT bites a little, it is likely only for one year.  One more bad year, and KC easily gets demoted from the 40-man, and there is a -0- CBT hit in 2028.

Unless we are going to go absolutely bonkers, which I doubt, the CBT is mostly irrelevant.  The least resistant path it has to becoming relevant is if it becomes a hard cap.  But I dont see how that happens, at least not right away.  You have to give teams time to get under if you do a hard cap, so it likely wouldnt take effect until like 2029, anyways.

Regarding KC, one thing Ive noticed is that some want to repurpose the money - but for what.  I think last years free agent class is going to be one of the last ones with that kind of talent.  Teams are locking up more guys, and I think that most classes going forward are going to be like this one upcoming.  Nothing but washed/flawed players.

So I dont think there is much value in getting out of KC's contract.  Hes 6'3, fast-ish, and turning 25. He still has options.  Im fine parking him in AAA.  

Every year we tend to need these out of nowhere guys, whether its Dom Smith, Nate Lowe, Toro, Monasterio, Siegler, Gasper. He could enter the fold.  And I dont think we should be hyper efficient with every dollar spent.  I dont think the key to the Red Sox turn-around is getting out of bad contracts.  I thikn in the current injury heavy environment, you want to be deep.

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, notin said:

Rafaela is a 4 fWAR outfielder with a $6mill AAV, and signed an 8 year deal, significantly longer than the current arb years.  In free agency, he blows that deal away…

I don't care about the AAV. I care about what he's getting paid in the years post ARB. He's getting 2/25. That's underpaid, but it's not enough savings to cover the other extensions that have been LOSERS! When you combine all the extensions together (which was the original argument), the Sox have lost money with these extensions.

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MVP will never admit that gamble paid off (or likely will.)

For two years of Rafaela? Not worth it to be tied to KC, Bello, et al. 

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, Hitch said:

The Rafaela deal was a brilliant piece of business by us. 

Why? He wouldn't have made more in ARB. Sox could afford him if he goes to FA after ARB. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why? He wouldn't have made more in ARB. Sox could afford him if he goes to FA after ARB. 

How much difference in the money do you think it would have been between what they paid him, and what he would have gotten without the 8 year contract?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

How much difference in the money do you think it would have been between what they paid him, and what he would have gotten without the 8 year contract?

He's only hit over 100 OPS once. He's not making jack in ARB even with his GGs. 

If he goes to FA, maybe somebody offers him 15 AAV? He's a good player, but you just can't trust that bat. Guys that get all their value from the defensive side of WAR really aren't worth that much $$$ wise. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's only hit over 100 OPS once. He's not making jack in ARB even with his GGs. 

If he goes to FA, maybe somebody offers him 15 AAV? He's a good player, but you just can't trust that bat. Guys that get all their value from the defensive side of WAR really aren't worth that much $$$ wise. 

I agree with that, but as I’ve said before I’ve never had a big problem with his bat not being good enough. RAF Man is not going to make, or break the Red Sox season unlike what Anthony might do, or not do.

[Hitch]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's only hit over 100 OPS once. He's not making jack in ARB even with his GGs. 

If he goes to FA, maybe somebody offers him 15 AAV? He's a good player, but you just can't trust that bat. Guys that get all their value from the defensive side of WAR really aren't worth that much $$$ wise. 

Duran is tagged for $11m this year. And he would get easily $15m in FA, probably more. 

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Duran is tagged for $11m this year. And he would get easily $15m in FA, probably more. 

I also think there's something to be said for making a guy feel wanted and comfortable. In no way was it a bad deal for us. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't care about the AAV. I care about what he's getting paid in the years post ARB. He's getting 2/25. That's underpaid, but it's not enough savings to cover the other extensions that have been LOSERS! When you combine all the extensions together (which was the original argument), the Sox have lost money with these extensions.

Nice pivot.

Yes, it was the original point being discussed, but then we asked about Ceddanne, only- one deal you disliked along with the others.

And BTW, the final scorecard is incomplete.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Duran is tagged for $11m this year. And he would get easily $15m in FA, probably more. 

So, trading him should be easy.

The return might not be what some think it should be, but with that $11M we can sign someone or use it with more money to get a much better player. There are several good players projected in the $12-15m aav range.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nice pivot.

Yes, it was the original point being discussed, but then we asked about Ceddanne, only- one deal you disliked along with the others.

And BTW, the final scorecard is incomplete.

Ok, the final scorecard isn't complete. Let's not talk about anything then. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I agree with that, but as I’ve said before I’ve never had a big problem with his bat not being good enough. RAF Man is not going to make, or break the Red Sox season unlike what Anthony might do, or not do.

He won't make or break the season, BUT with a penny pinching owner, why throw all these extensions onto the budget when IN TOTAL they've kinda busted out on them? They would have been better going year to year and having the cash on hand to spend today IMO. It is less risky unless you believe these guys are all turning into Mookie Betts and it hasn't turned out that way, clearly. 

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Duran is tagged for $11m this year. And he would get easily $15m in FA, probably more. 

How? He was 7.7M last year. We have zero clue what a 0 WAR guy will get in ARB this season if it gets that far since he's never gone to ARB before. Sox have always extended him prior to ARB negotiations. Maybe they just offer him 8M? 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, trading him should be easy.

The return might not be what some think it should be, but with that $11M we can sign someone or use it with more money to get a much better player. There are several good players projected in the $12-15m aav range.

How many teams will want the risky Duran at 11M? After '26, not many! 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why? He wouldn't have made more in ARB. Sox could afford him if he goes to FA after ARB. 

Daulton Varsho got more in arbitration.  And we will see how Varsho - in my opinion, the lesser player of the two - does in free agency…

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He won't make or break the season, BUT with a penny pinching owner, why throw all these extensions onto the budget when IN TOTAL they've kinda busted out on them? They would have been better going year to year and having the cash on hand to spend today IMO. It is less risky unless you believe these guys are all turning into Mookie Betts and it hasn't turned out that way, clearly. 

I agree with you on the extensions piece of it.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

How many teams will want the risky Duran at 11M? After '26, not many! 

Sticking with my Duran/Marte trade prediction.

Although a Duran/Semien trade wouldn’t surprise me.  But it better not be 1 for 1…