Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We're likely to be short on the rotation.  Just my personal risk assessment:

• Crochet  20%
• Tolle  15%
• Suarez  20%
• Bennett 35%
• Bello 35%

We need another SP.

This is the risk they get hurt or greatly underperform?

If so, it amounts to losing about 1.25 starters. (Maybe 40-42 GS) I might project more like 50-55 GS.

In house solutions?

IMO, Houck should start the year in the pen and stay there, but I'm not sure how Brez & Co. view him. He ended the season healthy and pitching. If you put him at 50% and as a SP, he could start 15 games.

Crawford should remain a starter, IMO. He was ready to start the last game in AAA, but it was cancelled. Maybe count him as 60%. That's 12 GS.

Oviedo is hard to project, but he was healthy, too and is a SP'er. How about 50% and 15 GS.

If all three are starters, maye they give 42+ GS with a possibility of 90 GS if 100% healthy all year long.

I doubt Brez adds a stud pitcher. I don't think he planned on Suarez, this year, and Crochet can be viewed as Gray's replacement.

The scary part is Paez is the only AAA guy on the 40. Wehunt is Rule 5 and may be added. Holobetz and Ziehl could be added, when and if needed, but none of these guys wow me at all.

I could see Brez adding another Oviedo type, but maybe he gets lucky and adds another Bennett type.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

22 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Many of these Breslow trades are too early to tell, but the AR trade was terrible. Strictly a panic trade by Breslow. AR's best days are behind him. The O's FO is still smiling over that one.

What AR has lost in offense, he's gained back in weight.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This is the risk they get hurt or greatly underperform?

Both.  For Crochet, it is more health.  For Tolle and Bennett, it's more such a small sample size to rely on.  Suarez is health.  Bello is more mental.  There is no way on god's good earth to figure out what to expect from him.  I'd love to commit to a one-inning opener for him and then 5-6 innings out of Bello.  But everything with him is guesswork.

[JoeBrady]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Both.  For Crochet, it is more health.  For Tolle and Bennett, it's more such a small sample size to rely on.  Suarez is health.  Bello is more mental.  There is no way on god's good earth to figure out what to expect from him.  I'd love to commit to a one-inning opener for him and then 5-6 innings out of Bello.  But everything with him is guesswork.

And I consider Crawford, Houck and Oviedo to be #6-7-8 SPs.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And I consider Crawford, Houck and Oviedo to be #6-7-8 SPs.

Me too, but capable of starting those games you projected might be needed.

[a700hitter]

Jake Bauers?

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Both.  For Crochet, it is more health.  For Tolle and Bennett, it's more such a small sample size to rely on.  Suarez is health.  Bello is more mental.  There is no way on god's good earth to figure out what to expect from him.  I'd love to commit to a one-inning opener for him and then 5-6 innings out of Bello.  But everything with him is guesswork.

Bello actually gained my trust again. He's still a major concern, but he came around nicely.

I feel really good about Tolle & Bennett being able to go more IP.

Suarez seems safe as long as he keeps being babied.

Crochet scares me.

 

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello actually gained my trust again. He's still a major concern, but he came around nicely.

I feel really good about Tolle & Bennett being able to go more IP.

Suarez seems safe as long as he keeps being babied.

Crochet scares me.

 

Good for BBB that he has your trust. Tolle pitched his most innings last year, but just throwing caution out there of what happened to Houck, and Crochet after they did the same. Ranger the $130M man has to be babied?🤭. He was pretty much only a 5 inning pitcher last year, and pitched less innings than the previous two years. He needs to do more, and not less. Maybe even pitch in the postseason next year.🤫

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

We're likely to be short on the rotation.  Just my personal risk assessment:

• Crochet  20%
• Tolle  15%
• Suarez  20%
• Bennett 35%
• Bello 35%

We need another SP.

At 5, you can live with Bello.

Bennett is kind of an unknown going into year 2. His ERA skyrocketed after the ASB. His FIP when up a little bit too. Which pitcher should the Sox expect for '27: first or second half? 

Suarez will give you 150 IP next season. You'll need a 6th starter to give you another 4-5 GS for sure. Is Wehunt good enough as a fill in late season? 

Not terribly concerned about Tolle TBH. No injury history really and pitched well all season. May fall back a bit, but I don't see him completely collapsing. Pitching is inherently risky in the modern era though.

If you told me that Crochet doesn't make it out of ST and gets season ending surgery, I wouldn't be surprised. If you told me that he returned to '25 form and won the CY, I wouldn't be surprised. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good for BBB that he has your trust. Tolle pitched his most innings last year, but just throwing caution out there of what happened to Houck, and Crochet after they did the same. Ranger the $130M man has to be babied?🤭. He was pretty much only a 5 inning pitcher last year, and pitched less innings than the previous two years. He needs to do more, and not less. Maybe even pitch in the postseason next year.🤫

I think Suarez is what he is: a 150 IP guy. Just because you pay him more, doesn't mean he's going to be able to go out there 32 games next season. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Suarez is what he is: a 150 IP guy. Just because you pay him more, doesn't mean he's going to be able to go out there 32 games next season. 

I agree that a 5 inning pitcher is what he pretty much what he his babied, or not"

[NHNative]

Speed kills.

[notin]

10 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Jake Bauers?

He’s basically Mickey Gasper…

[a700hitter]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s basically Mickey Gasper…

He was a big time prospect at one time.  It took him until age 29 to figure it out in the majors.  He might be worth a look.  He has some versatility- 1B/OF/DH.

[a700hitter]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

At 5, you can live with Bello.

Bennett is kind of an unknown going into year 2. His ERA skyrocketed after the ASB. His FIP when up a little bit too. Which pitcher should the Sox expect for '27: first or second half? 

Suarez will give you 150 IP next season. You'll need a 6th starter to give you another 4-5 GS for sure. Is Wehunt good enough as a fill in late season? 

Not terribly concerned about Tolle TBH. No injury history really and pitched well all season. May fall back a bit, but I don't see him completely collapsing. Pitching is inherently risky in the modern era though.

If you told me that Crochet doesn't make it out of ST and gets season ending surgery, I wouldn't be surprised. If you told me that he returned to '25 form and won the CY, I wouldn't be surprised. 

What about Houck?  Kutter?

[notin]

33 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

He was a big time prospect at one time.  It took him until age 29 to figure it out in the majors.  He might be worth a look.  He has some versatility- 1B/OF/DH.

H was a top 50-60 propect 8 years ago that has had onegood year two years after he contemplated returing from baseball..  I'd pass. There are other former top prospects on the market with better careers that I'd avoid as well.

Jazz Chisholm might be the only free agent position player I'd like the Sox to consider, especially if the early reports are true that the Yankees will not be extending a QO (assuming the QO is still a thing)...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Watching all the playoff games, it's impossible not to think that as far as pitching staffs go, starters are less valuable than ever before... in the postseason.

During the long regular season, starting pitchers who eat innings and keep your team in the game are as important as ever -- but mostly to save arms in the bullpen from burning out... before they become the key men on the mound in October.

The Brewers won the pennant last night using two Red Sox rejects as an opener and a bulk man. But their bullpen is unhittable (4 relievers worked 15 IP with 0.00 ERAs).

The whiffing White Sox almost made the ALCS with hitters striking out 20 times a game to support openers almost every night. The Guards' strength is their bullpen, which Boston couldn't touch in the final week. But the Rays aren't done, because Baker and Cam Booser are 0.00 through two rounds.

Moral: if Breslow and his analysts are paying attention, spend to improve the offense. Hoard the pitching you've already invested in and develop it.

 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

What about Houck?  Kutter?

And Oviedo.

Kutter just seems to be piling injury on top of injury lately.  I wonder if he even gets tendered a contract.  He hasn't pitched in two years...

[a700hitter]

2 hours ago, notin said:

And Oviedo.

Kutter just seems to be piling injury on top of injury lately.  I wonder if he even gets tendered a contract.  He hasn't pitched in two years...

Do we even know what Oviedo’s problem is and how it is being addressed?

[jdc69]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Watching all the playoff games, it's impossible not to think that as far as pitching staffs go, starters are less valuable than ever before... in the postseason.

During the long regular season, starting pitchers who eat innings and keep your team in the game are as important as ever -- but mostly to save arms in the bullpen from burning out... before they become the key men on the mound in October.

The Brewers won the pennant last night using two Red Sox rejects as an opener and a bulk man. But their bullpen is unhittable (4 relievers worked 15 IP with 0.00 ERAs).

The whiffing White Sox almost made the ALCS with hitters striking out 20 times a game to support openers almost every night. The Guards' strength is their bullpen, which Boston couldn't touch in the final week. But the Rays aren't done, because Baker and Cam Booser are 0.00 through two rounds.

Moral: if Breslow and his analysts are paying attention, spend to improve the offense. Hoard the pitching you've already invested in and develop it.

 

I agree but would say, you need it all. Yes the Brewers have a great bullpen but if the starter wouldn't have started missing so much, he wouldve been kept in there. I realize youre talking about the playoffs as a whole but last night, the manager didnt want to give the Dodgers any hope, and that was alot of the reason. The best pitchers in the league are still the starters.

I personally think the big takeaway is the small ball. This should influence teams relying on analytics. I do think that even though Ohtani was struggling, there was fear he could do damage, so dont want to say stars and long ball dont count but contact and fear of contact and base stealing creates pressure too. 

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

Good for BBB that he has your trust. Tolle pitched his most innings last year, but just throwing caution out there of what happened to Houck, and Crochet after they did the same. Ranger the $130M man has to be babied?🤭. He was pretty much only a 5 inning pitcher last year, and pitched less innings than the previous two years. He needs to do more, and not less. Maybe even pitch in the postseason next year.🤫

Yes, Suarez has been babied his whole career. If they continue that, I don't have injury worries with him.

I expected them to ease up on Tolle's workload in 2026, and they did not. I do have worries about him, but not all pitchers who reach career highs get hurt the next year or two. I am concerned.

Why is it good for BBB that Belle gaines some of my trust back? I just gave my own opinion and was not trying to convince BBB of anything. The only trust that really mattered was Tracy and Brez's.

What does your magic 8 ball have to say about year two after a career high IP season and issues the first year after? That's the info we really need, now.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, Suarez has been babied his whole career. If they continue that, I don't have injury worries with him.

I expected them to ease up on Tolle's workload in 2026, and they did not. I do have worries about him, but not all pitchers who reach career highs get hurt the next year or two. I am concerned.

Why is it good for BBB that Belle gaines some of my trust back? I just gave my own opinion and was not trying to convince BBB of anything. The only trust that really mattered was Tracy and Brez's.

What does your magic 8 ball have to say about year two after a career high IP season and issues the first year after? That's the info we really need, now.

My magic 8 ball? How many innings did Crochet pitch last year? How many innings the last two years has Houck pitched after his first big heavy workload? That info is out there for anyone who wants it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

54 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

I agree but would say, you need it all. Yes the Brewers have a great bullpen but if the starter wouldn't have started missing so much, he wouldve been kept in there. I realize youre talking about the playoffs as a whole but last night, the manager didnt want to give the Dodgers any hope, and that was alot of the reason. The best pitchers in the league are still the starters.

I personally think the big takeaway is the small ball. This should influence teams relying on analytics. I do think that even though Ohtani was struggling, there was fear he could do damage, so dont want to say stars and long ball dont count but contact and fear of contact and base stealing creates pressure too. 

You're right, the Brewers' smallball and largeball allowed them to dominate. 

They hit 7 homers in 4 games -- or 1.75 per game, compared to not even 1 per in the regular season: 0.95.

So of course the best hitter in the entire NLCS was David Hamilton with a .571 BA, who was his usual speed demon, and cracked a longball off Edwin Diaz for the exclamation mark.

And I laughed when notin suggested trading Hammy last winter for Yandy Diaz (who he's only out-hitting in this round by 340 points)...

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

My magic 8 ball? How many innings did Crochet pitch last year? How many innings the last two years has Houck pitched after his first big heavy workload? That info is out there for anyone who wants it.

I know fully well what happened- same with Crawford, Oviedo and many others.

The fact is many other pitchers do follow up a career high IP season with another one or one or more near the same amount?

What's your info an year two after career highs in IP?

That was what I asked, but got the expected deflections instead.

Yes, I do think major upticks in workload increases the chances of an injury. Now, tell me what you expect in year two? Feel free to consult the pulse of the Sox Nation you are more in tune with than anyone else on this site.

 

[moonslav59]

How about Pedro?

He was used most as a RP'er in '93 at age 21 (107 IP).

They jumped him to SP and 145 IP at age 22, then 195 (+50), then 217 then 241. He had 29+ GS the following 3 seasons.

Beckett: 107>142 (+35)>157>179>204 was way more gradual and probably ideal.

Schilling went from RP and 76 IP to 226!!! +150. He followed that season up with 235. Hmmm..

Sale went from 71 to 192 (+121) and never looked back for 5 more seasons.

Price went from 128 to 209>224>211>186>248

Were those more gradual increases than ...

Crochet was returning from major surgery, then 13>146>205 (+59)

Houck was jerked from pen to starter to pen to starter more times than I can count. He went from 69>60>106>179 (+73)

Crawford 77 (102 counting AAA)>129>184 (+50)

Tolle 108>149 (+41)

Yes, the information is there for all of us to see what we want to see.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Pedro?

He was used most as a RP'er in '93 at age 21 (107 IP).

They jumped him to SP and 145 IP at age 22, then 195 (+50), then 217 then 241. He had 29+ GS the following 3 seasons.

Beckett: 107>142 (+35)>157>179>204 was way more gradual and probably ideal.

Schilling went from RP and 76 IP to 226!!! +150. He followed that season up with 235. Hmmm..

Sale went from 71 to 192 (+121) and never looked back for 5 more seasons.

Price went from 128 to 209>224>211>186>248

Were those more gradual increases than ...

Crochet was returning from major surgery, then 13>146>205 (+59)

Houck was jerked from pen to starter to pen to starter more times than I can count. He went from 69>60>106>179 (+73)

Crawford 77 (102 counting AAA)>129>184 (+50)

Tolle 108>149 (+41)

Yes, the information is there for all of us to see what we want to see.

Lot different game today in a lot different time from when Pedro could throw all those innings right down to Price, and like you even said that was then. There were only 3 pitchers who topped 200 innings this year topping out at 214. In 1993 there were 44 topping out at 267. Way different time today. They just don’t make em like they used too.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Lot different game today in a lot different time from when Pedro could throw all those innings right down to Price, and like you even said that was then. There were only 3 pitchers who topped 200 innings this year topping out at 214. In 1993 there were 44 topping out at 267. Way different time today. They just don’t make em like they used too.

I guess the Brewers should hold a sell-off sale this winter, after allowing Misiorowski to go from 64 IP to 175.

The Yanks might as well just perform preventative shoulder surgery on Schlitter after jumping his IP by 120 before the playoffs even started.

 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess the Brewers should hold a sell-off sale this winter, after allowing Misiorowski to go from 64 IP to 175.

The Yanks might as well just perform preventative shoulder surgery on Schlitter after jumping his IP by 120 before the playoffs even started.

 

Huh? Have they pitched next year yet? Houck, Kut Man, and Cro Man already tried , and came up short, or injured as the case may be did they not? Some guys get lucky, and escape the bad juju, and some do not. Like I said just look at the last 5 years for Boston.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Have they pitched next year yet? Houck, Kut Man, and Cro Man already tried , and came up short, or injured as the case may be did they not? Some guys get lucky, and escape the bad juju, and some do not. Like I said just look at the last 5 years for Boston.

Oh, so it went from "this is a new era" to this happens to only the Sox pitchers.

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Oh, so it went from "this is a new era" to this happens to only the Sox pitchers.

This is not a new era for starting pitchers who go less innings today than they ever have? Come on man! You’re better than that, or at least I thought you were. I don’t  know about you, but I only care what happens to Red Sox pitchers. Last 5 years has quite a medical history.