Red Sox Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We're likely to be short on the rotation.  Just my personal risk assessment:

• Crochet  20%
• Tolle  15%
• Suarez  20%
• Bennett 35%
• Bello 35%

We need another SP.

This is the risk they get hurt or greatly underperform?

If so, it amounts to losing about 1.25 starters. (Maybe 40-42 GS) I might project more like 50-55 GS.

In house solutions?

IMO, Houck should start the year in the pen and stay there, but I'm not sure how Brez & Co. view him. He ended the season healthy and pitching. If you put him at 50% and as a SP, he could start 15 games.

Crawford should remain a starter, IMO. He was ready to start the last game in AAA, but it was cancelled. Maybe count him as 60%. That's 12 GS.

Oviedo is hard to project, but he was healthy, too and is a SP'er. How about 50% and 15 GS.

If all three are starters, maye they give 42+ GS with a possibility of 90 GS if 100% healthy all year long.

I doubt Brez adds a stud pitcher. I don't think he planned on Suarez, this year, and Crochet can be viewed as Gray's replacement.

The scary part is Paez is the only AAA guy on the 40. Wehunt is Rule 5 and may be added. Holobetz and Ziehl could be added, when and if needed, but none of these guys wow me at all.

I could see Brez adding another Oviedo type, but maybe he gets lucky and adds another Bennett type.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

22 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Many of these Breslow trades are too early to tell, but the AR trade was terrible. Strictly a panic trade by Breslow. AR's best days are behind him. The O's FO is still smiling over that one.

What AR has lost in offense, he's gained back in weight.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This is the risk they get hurt or greatly underperform?

Both.  For Crochet, it is more health.  For Tolle and Bennett, it's more such a small sample size to rely on.  Suarez is health.  Bello is more mental.  There is no way on god's good earth to figure out what to expect from him.  I'd love to commit to a one-inning opener for him and then 5-6 innings out of Bello.  But everything with him is guesswork.

[JoeBrady]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Both.  For Crochet, it is more health.  For Tolle and Bennett, it's more such a small sample size to rely on.  Suarez is health.  Bello is more mental.  There is no way on god's good earth to figure out what to expect from him.  I'd love to commit to a one-inning opener for him and then 5-6 innings out of Bello.  But everything with him is guesswork.

And I consider Crawford, Houck and Oviedo to be #6-7-8 SPs.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

And I consider Crawford, Houck and Oviedo to be #6-7-8 SPs.

Me too, but capable of starting those games you projected might be needed.

[a700hitter]

Jake Bauers?

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Both.  For Crochet, it is more health.  For Tolle and Bennett, it's more such a small sample size to rely on.  Suarez is health.  Bello is more mental.  There is no way on god's good earth to figure out what to expect from him.  I'd love to commit to a one-inning opener for him and then 5-6 innings out of Bello.  But everything with him is guesswork.

Bello actually gained my trust again. He's still a major concern, but he came around nicely.

I feel really good about Tolle & Bennett being able to go more IP.

Suarez seems safe as long as he keeps being babied.

Crochet scares me.

 

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bello actually gained my trust again. He's still a major concern, but he came around nicely.

I feel really good about Tolle & Bennett being able to go more IP.

Suarez seems safe as long as he keeps being babied.

Crochet scares me.

 

Good for BBB that he has your trust. Tolle pitched his most innings last year, but just throwing caution out there of what happened to Houck, and Crochet after they did the same. Ranger the $130M man has to be babied?🤭. He was pretty much only a 5 inning pitcher last year, and pitched less innings than the previous two years. He needs to do more, and not less. Maybe even pitch in the postseason next year.🤫

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

We're likely to be short on the rotation.  Just my personal risk assessment:

• Crochet  20%
• Tolle  15%
• Suarez  20%
• Bennett 35%
• Bello 35%

We need another SP.

At 5, you can live with Bello.

Bennett is kind of an unknown going into year 2. His ERA skyrocketed after the ASB. His FIP when up a little bit too. Which pitcher should the Sox expect for '27: first or second half? 

Suarez will give you 150 IP next season. You'll need a 6th starter to give you another 4-5 GS for sure. Is Wehunt good enough as a fill in late season? 

Not terribly concerned about Tolle TBH. No injury history really and pitched well all season. May fall back a bit, but I don't see him completely collapsing. Pitching is inherently risky in the modern era though.

If you told me that Crochet doesn't make it out of ST and gets season ending surgery, I wouldn't be surprised. If you told me that he returned to '25 form and won the CY, I wouldn't be surprised. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good for BBB that he has your trust. Tolle pitched his most innings last year, but just throwing caution out there of what happened to Houck, and Crochet after they did the same. Ranger the $130M man has to be babied?🤭. He was pretty much only a 5 inning pitcher last year, and pitched less innings than the previous two years. He needs to do more, and not less. Maybe even pitch in the postseason next year.🤫

I think Suarez is what he is: a 150 IP guy. Just because you pay him more, doesn't mean he's going to be able to go out there 32 games next season. 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Suarez is what he is: a 150 IP guy. Just because you pay him more, doesn't mean he's going to be able to go out there 32 games next season. 

I agree that a 5 inning pitcher is what he pretty much what he his babied, or not"

[NHNative]

Speed kills.

[notin]

10 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Jake Bauers?

He’s basically Mickey Gasper…

[a700hitter]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s basically Mickey Gasper…

He was a big time prospect at one time.  It took him until age 29 to figure it out in the majors.  He might be worth a look.  He has some versatility- 1B/OF/DH.

[a700hitter]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

At 5, you can live with Bello.

Bennett is kind of an unknown going into year 2. His ERA skyrocketed after the ASB. His FIP when up a little bit too. Which pitcher should the Sox expect for '27: first or second half? 

Suarez will give you 150 IP next season. You'll need a 6th starter to give you another 4-5 GS for sure. Is Wehunt good enough as a fill in late season? 

Not terribly concerned about Tolle TBH. No injury history really and pitched well all season. May fall back a bit, but I don't see him completely collapsing. Pitching is inherently risky in the modern era though.

If you told me that Crochet doesn't make it out of ST and gets season ending surgery, I wouldn't be surprised. If you told me that he returned to '25 form and won the CY, I wouldn't be surprised. 

What about Houck?  Kutter?

[notin]

33 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

He was a big time prospect at one time.  It took him until age 29 to figure it out in the majors.  He might be worth a look.  He has some versatility- 1B/OF/DH.

H was a top 50-60 propect 8 years ago that has had onegood year two years after he contemplated returing from baseball..  I'd pass. There are other former top prospects on the market with better careers that I'd avoid as well.

Jazz Chisholm might be the only free agent position player I'd like the Sox to consider, especially if the early reports are true that the Yankees will not be extending a QO (assuming the QO is still a thing)...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Watching all the playoff games, it's impossible not to think that as far as pitching staffs go, starters are less valuable than ever before... in the postseason.

During the long regular season, starting pitchers who eat innings and keep your team in the game are as important as ever -- but mostly to save arms in the bullpen from burning out... before they become the key men on the mound in October.

The Brewers won the pennant last night using two Red Sox rejects as an opener and a bulk man. But their bullpen is unhittable (4 relievers worked 15 IP with 0.00 ERAs).

The whiffing White Sox almost made the ALCS with hitters striking out 20 times a game to support openers almost every night. The Guards' strength is their bullpen, which Boston couldn't touch in the final week. But the Rays aren't done, because Baker and Cam Booser are 0.00 through two rounds.

Moral: if Breslow and his analysts are paying attention, spend to improve the offense. Hoard the pitching you've already invested in and develop it.

 

[notin]

21 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

What about Houck?  Kutter?

And Oviedo.

Kutter just seems to be piling injury on top of injury lately.  I wonder if he even gets tendered a contract.  He hasn't pitched in two years...