A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The ALE was better this year. Perhaps that explains 2 less wins. Perhaps not.

I'm sure you know what is meaningful.

We dont know why we dont have more wins,

Says the top 5 pitching team and bottom 5 offense team.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

We dont know why we dont have more wins,

Says the top 5 pitching team and bottom 5 offense team.

There are many reasons and excuses for 2 less wins this year.

Some could be...

1. Most fWAR lost to injuries in MLB.

2. Too many downturns on offense by key players.

3. Tougher schedule.

4. Fill in the blank __________________/

It's interesting to note that Pythagorean had us at 92 wins last year and 90 this year- same two game difference.

 

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

3. Tougher schedule.

They play the same schedule every year now. That can't possibly be an excuse. 

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There are many reasons and excuses for 2 less wins this year.

Some could be...

1. Most fWAR lost to injuries in MLB.

2. Too many downturns on offense by key players.

3. Tougher schedule.

4. Fill in the blank __________________/

It's interesting to note that Pythagorean had us at 92 wins last year and 90 this year- same two game difference.

 

A team that noodlebatted their way out of the playoffs, and the neutral power-ranker looked at our O and said "not scary", then our offense turned out to be not scary, exactly as predicted.

But hey nobody knows why a team that was 23rd in offense wasnt better, right?

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They play the same schedule every year now. That can't possibly be an excuse. 

anything but  "we didnt get the bats".  Even Breslow was like i failed to get that bats i wanted. 

But the bean counters hate paying for bats.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

What was the original disagreement. 

This was MVP's response to you:

Red Sox '25: 89 wins

Red Sox '26: 87 wins

My response was:

We had twice as many injuries.  If Crochet repeats his 2025, we have an easy 95 wins.

Basically, more injuries equals less wins.  There is no doubt about that.  I'm not even talking about run of the mill injuries, like Roman, Romy, Story, etc.  But when you lose the #3 pitcher in baseball, you're going to win less games.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

our pitching was better in 2026 than it was in 2025 though, so that doesnt explain why we had 2 less wins despite a weaker division.

Would we have won more games in 2026 if Crochet repeated 2025?  And 'no' will be auto-rejected.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's just different underperforming and one that wasn't all that surprising. 

Would we have won more games in 2026 if Crochet repeated 2025?  And 'no' will be auto-rejected.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Would we have won more games in 2026 if Crochet repeated 2025?  And 'no' will be auto-rejected.

Offense - 23rd in baseball
Pitching - 3rd in baseball

SImple as that.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Joe Brady told us that our problem was not enough pitching going from 2025 to 2026. 

Pretty sure that Gray and Suarez's 26-11 have bailed me out on that topic.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

This was MVP's response to you:

Red Sox '25: 89 wins

Red Sox '26: 87 wins

My response was:

We had twice as many injuries.  If Crochet repeats his 2025, we have an easy 95 wins.

Basically, more injuries equals less wins.  There is no doubt about that.  I'm not even talking about run of the mill injuries, like Roman, Romy, Story, etc.  But when you lose the #3 pitcher in baseball, you're going to win less games.

But our pitching was better than last year.  We won less games, with better pitching.  Our offense is 23rd.  Are you fine with that number?

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Pretty sure that Gray and Suarez's 26-11 have bailed me out on that topic.

Ill give you that. They were great additions.  We would not have had the third best pitching in baseball, despite losing the third best pitcher in baseball - without them.

But here we are , with the third best rotation - adding Crochet to that. Wow! And you are talking about why we need Skubal , and no hitters, despite the fact that our offense fell to 23rd.  

All Im saying is if we dont need bats, then we should hit tonight, right?  I understand their pitching is good, but you have to hit good pitching in the playoffs.

[drewski6]

My issue is people premaking excuses for losing and not getting bats in the offseason if we do.

Hit this playoff run, or we'll need to go get bats.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But our pitching was better than last year.  We won less games, with better pitching.  Our offense is 23rd.  Are you fine with that number?

Our pitching was better and our offense was worse.  But that has nothing to do with me saying that we'd have won 95 games if Crochet repeated his 2025. 

Just for fun, without a single other consideration, if Crochet repeats his 2025, how many games do we win?

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Our offense is 23rd.  Are you fine with that number?

Absolutely not.  But I would make a huge wager that we are top-15 even if we do not add a bat.  And pretty likely top-10.

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Our pitching was better and our offense was worse.  But that has nothing to do with me saying that we'd have won 95 games if Crochet repeated his 2025. 

Just for fun, without a single other consideration, if Crochet repeats his 2025, how many games do we win?

I think its silly to when someone asks why we didnt win as many games last year - to point to pitching when our pitching greatly improved 2025 to 2026 and our offense greatly regressed from 2025 to 2026.

Just for fun - if the team had gotten Alonso and kept Bregman - how many games do we win?

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Absolutely not.  But I would make a huge wager that we are top-15 even if we do not add a bat.  And pretty likely top-10.

Top 10 isnt good enough.  And if anything, i think we go down next year , in O, if we return the same guys because we were carried by a soon to be 35 yr old this year and I dont think we can count on that again.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They play the same schedule every year now. That can't possibly be an excuse. 

Hello?

Teams get better from one year to the next. The ALE got better, so our schedule got harder than all the teams from the ALC and ALW, and no, those teams do not play the same schedule as we do.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I'm guessing the Sox blew more quality starts than any team in MLB.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I'm guessing the Sox blew more quality starts than any team in MLB.

The Sox tied the Yankems for 4th place in MLB in QS with 64.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

43 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I'm guessing the Sox blew more quality starts than any team in MLB.

After further investigation I was surprised to find the Sox only lost 7 games when their starter had a QS. It sure seemed like a lot more.

According to AI the Yankems lost 56 games when their starter had a QS. Wow!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

After further investigation I was surprised to find the Sox only lost 7 games when their starter had a QS. It sure seemed like a lot more.

According to AI the Yankems lost 56 games when their starter had a QS. Wow!

Let's hope tonight makes 57.

[NHNative]

I do think Tolle with his attitude and youthful energy is gonna do push-ups and Ks.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

4 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

After further investigation I was surprised to find the Sox only lost 7 games when their starter had a QS. It sure seemed like a lot more.

According to AI the Yankems lost 56 games when their starter had a QS. Wow!

That 56 didn't seem right so I rechecked and found that the Yankems lost 18 games. I guess AI didn't understand my original question.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Just now, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

That 56 didn't seem right so I rechecked and found that the Yankems lost 18 games. I guess AI didn't understand my original question.

Let's hope tonight makes 19.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

58 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I'm guessing the Sox blew more quality starts than any team in MLB.

It appears they didn't.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I'm guessing the Sox blew more quality starts than any team in MLB.

We had 64 QS, which might be among the league leaders. I'm not sure how many we blew, but we only had 14 blown saves, and some were probably in non GS games and we may have won a game or two after a BS.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

According to AI the Yankems lost 56 games when their starter had a QS. Wow!

Remember how we used to hear how much a lockdown closer and capable set up menw ere needed to win rings?

Now, I just hear hitting is everything.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Top 10 isnt good enough.  And if anything, i think we go down next year , in O, if we return the same guys because we were carried by a soon to be 35 yr old this year and I dont think we can count on that again.

So, just ignore all the starters who are on the upswing side of prime?

I'm going out on a limb and projecting that not only will Duran not be a top 2 team leader in PAs, he might get zero. Here is my projected 2027 PAs and age (now) :

680 (about the same) Abreu 27

650 (75 more) Rafaela 25

650 (400 more) Anthony 22

600 (15 more) Durbin 26

600 (600 more) Mead 25

550 (550 more) Arias 20

500 (35 less) Contreras 34

450 (325 more) Rutschman 28

400 (100 more) Yoshida 32

250 (about the same) Story 33

Sogard 28, Seigler 27, Monasterio 29, Wong 30

Romy 29, Jones 28, White 32, Eaton 29, Cheng 24

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There are many reasons and excuses for 2 less wins this year.

Some could be...

1. Most fWAR lost to injuries in MLB.

2. Too many downturns on offense by key players.

3. Tougher schedule.

4. Fill in the blank __________________/

It's interesting to note that Pythagorean had us at 92 wins last year and 90 this year- same two game difference.

 

The Sox didn't win 17 in a row.