A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I seriously doubt they just non-tender him…

I assume everyone has players like this.  There is always an impending FA that is worth roughly $21M that you *might* want to offer a QO, or a marginal arb player that might get overpaid.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Way to cherry-pick a post.

"Arozarena has scored 100 runs and hit 27 homers in each of the past two seasons" -- in the majors, not freaking Japan or the WBC. 

But Boston doesn't need that kind of production from LF or DH?

The last time it happened for a Red Sox LF or DH wasn't in this decade. JD Martinez did it in 2018, and Jason Bay did it 17 years ago in 2009.

Arozarena is a fun player. I think he'll get overpaid somewhere. He doesn't pull the ball enough or play good defense to be a big investment for BOS. 

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Way to cherry-pick a post.

"Arozarena has scored 100 runs and hit 27 homers in each of the past two seasons" -- in the majors, not freaking Japan or the WBC. 

But Boston doesn't need that kind of production from LF or DH?

I generally don't pay too much attention to what a player does in his walk year.  In the three previous years, we have three considerations at DH:

• Player A:  .753 OPS
• Player B:  .756 OPS
• Player C:  .743 OPS

The two other DH options are already guys I don't really want to pay.  I honestly do not think Aro, Duran, or Yoshida will out-perform a JJ/Gasper platoon by enough to be worth their salaries.  My picks are Gray or Skubal.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I assume everyone has players like this.  There is always an impending FA that is worth roughly $21M that you *might* want to offer a QO, or a marginal arb player that might get overpaid.

Duran has two more years before a QO decision. If they are crazy enough to give him a QO after '28, we'll collectively lose our minds. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I honestly do not think Aro, Duran, or Yoshida will out-perform a JJ/Gasper platoon by enough to be worth their salaries.  My picks are Gray or Skubal.

Jones has been ok. He was really hot early on. I'm not sure I'd keep him around for '27. He's not the greatest platoon bat I've seen. Pay a tiny bit more and you can get a bigger return.

I think this is clearly the high water mark for Gasper. It's a fun ride, but I wouldn't pencil him for a 26 man spot next season. To me, he's still a AAAA guy. Fun story though.

[drewski6]

And if we lose to the yankees, 2-0, 3-1 and story is our best playoff hitter......Then we will have 2 years running when we have noodlebatted our way right out of the playoffs, and the solution is to salary dump the only guy in those 2 playoff series who wasnt a noodle bat?

Keep settling for 6-12 best offense, keep running into the buzzsaws.  MLB is too top heavy right now to settle for middle of the pack.

The pitching is great, and I want to keep Gray.  But if you noodlebat out of the playoffs 2 years in a row, you dont get to run around screaming about how the offense is good enough.

[drewski6]

the problem in mlb is its becoming like the nba where its just so top heavy.  Maybe that was always the case.  But I dont care if we are 9th in hitting, and 4th in pitching if the yankees are 2nd and 3rd respectively.

The goal is to be the best team, not above average.

[mvp 78]

The vibes are gone. They aren't stacking hits anymore. When you have guys with in zone contact issues, it doesn't move runners along. This definitely feels more like the APR/MAY offense than the summer offense. 

[JoeBrady]

30 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

you dont get to run around screaming about how the offense is good enough.

It's not just a case of offense v pitching.  Positional and marginal improvements counts.  This is our sOPS+

plit	sOPS+
as C	83
as 1B	122
as 2B	92
as 3B	104
as SS	91
as LF	81
as CF	105
as RF	114
as DH	106

Our weakest 2026 positions have been upgraded by Rutschman, Mead, and Anthony.  The only category projected under 100 is SS.  Obtaining Aro to upgrade a 106 at DH is not going to be a difference-maker, imo.

[drewski6]

35 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It's not just a case of offense v pitching.  Positional and marginal improvements counts.  This is our sOPS+

plit	sOPS+
as C	83
as 1B	122
as 2B	92
as 3B	104
as SS	91
as LF	81
as CF	105
as RF	114
as DH	106

Our weakest 2026 positions have been upgraded by Rutschman, Mead, and Anthony.  The only category projected under 100 is SS.  Obtaining Aro to upgrade a 106 at DH is not going to be a difference-maker, imo.

The 104 at 3b is carried by a gigantic hot-streak.  Expecting RA to flip a switch and not be a worm killer, which hes always been is a good assumption but not a guaranteed one, the DH is driven by Gasper and Im not sure thats repeatable, that 122 at 1b is going to be 35 next year

But more than anything, you told us that after we noodlebatted our way out of the playoffs last year, that we were already on track with enough in house candidates to have a good enough offense this year.  And you applauded our pitching, pitching, pitching approach and complained that it wasnt even more pitching (wild).

ANd if we noodlebat out of the playoffs this year - well you are already working on your excuses.

Score more than 4.0 runs against the yankees and im fine.  But lets not make a habit of noodlebatting our way out of the playoffs, year over year.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

that we were already on track with enough in house candidates to have a good enough offense this year.  And you applauded our pitching, pitching, pitching approach and complained that it wasnt even more pitching (wild).

And we'll win 87 games with the most injuries in BB.  I consider that to be 100% correct in EVERY aspect of what I said.  Feel free to review the early-season prediction threads, and I believe I said we needed at least one, probably two, quality SPs.  We did that.  We needed a 1B and either a 2B or 3B, and we did that.  I believe I predicted 12th in OPS and we are currently 12th.  And I believe I predicted 4th in pitching, and we're 6th.

I think the only place I went off-course was I thought we needed another RP.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 He's not the greatest platoon bat I've seen.

Said the same about Refsnyder.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Our weakest 2026 positions have been upgraded by Rutschman, Mead, and Anthony.  The only category projected under 100 is SS.  Obtaining Aro to upgrade a 106 at DH is not going to be a difference-maker, imo.

Agreed, and there is hope Arias can boost the SS offense.

(Also, Story had a 104 OPS+ in 2025. (It's 98 from 2024-2026.)

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and there is hope Arias can boost the SS offense.

(Also, Story had a 104 OPS+ in 2025. (It's 98 from 2024-2026.)

Story is bound to get hurt by the ASB anyway. 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story is bound to get hurt by the ASB anyway. 

Very likely, but almost leading the team in PAs last year makes me wonder.

(I'm thinking he plays 2B in 2027- perhaps with another team, and Mead is our DH.)

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

And we'll win 87 games with the most injuries in BB.  I consider that to be 100% correct in EVERY aspect of what I said.  Feel free to review the early-season prediction threads, and I believe I said we needed at least one, probably two, quality SPs.  We did that.  We needed a 1B and either a 2B or 3B, and we did that.  I believe I predicted 12th in OPS and we are currently 12th.  And I believe I predicted 4th in pitching, and we're 6th.

I think the only place I went off-course was I thought we needed another RP.

Where you went off course, is when you defended being 12th in hitting and 4th in pitching.  Aim higher.

[drewski6]

I just checked right now and the Red Sox are 22nd in MLB in runs scored, lol.  Not 12th.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I just checked right now and the Red Sox are 22nd in MLB in runs scored, lol.  Not 12th.

12th in OPS and 16th in wRC+

If you wanna cherry-pick June 25th>>>

5th in OPS & wRC+ and 7th in runs. Much of that time was without Anthony, Story and others.

[oldtimer]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

12th in OPS and 16th in wRC+

If you wanna cherry-pick June 25th>>>

5th in OPS & wRC+ and 7th in runs. Much of that time was without Anthony, Story and others.

In watching Sox hitters, I see a lot of ABs where our guys will take strike two down the middle and swing at strike three several inches off the plate. They are looking at their coach to see signs and perhaps approval of what to do on the next pitch. I'm old school, perhaps because I've been around a long time. Free the batter up if the pitch  is on the plate swing. Be aggressive. Our offense is pathetic now and needs enthusiasm. True, the Sox continue to have a lot of injuries and that contributes to the malaise, but our pitchiing is sound and the defense has been pretty good. 

We have not faced AS pitching every night yet still we look helpless. Two hits in a game. C'mon guys. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

53 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

We have not faced AS pitching every night yet still we look helpless. Two hits in a game. C'mon guys. 

What, us worry?

In a NESN article today, Jeff Passan says Boston will win the pennant, "stating the Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the AL."

Cited as proof are Contreras, Abreu and Anthony! Never mind if you think you heard or saw one with a tender top hand or the others whiffing in action. Those sly dogs have just been resting and sandbagging advance scouts before unleashing on postseason foes.

18 runs in the past 9 games -- that only shows how they hit now. What about all those runs they scored in the summer?!?!?

And if they have to, they'll just smallball their way to the World Series. Like last night, when Duran popped up a bunt... to third base.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

In watching Sox hitters, I see a lot of ABs where our guys will take strike two down the middle and swing at strike three several inches off the plate. They are looking at their coach to see signs and perhaps approval of what to do on the next pitch. I'm old school, perhaps because I've been around a long time. Free the batter up if the pitch  is on the plate swing. Be aggressive. Our offense is pathetic now and needs enthusiasm. True, the Sox continue to have a lot of injuries and that contributes to the malaise, but our pitchiing is sound and the defense has been pretty good. 

We have not faced AS pitching every night yet still we look helpless. Two hits in a game. C'mon guys. 

I can find many examples where we sucked for a game or two or more vs crappy pitchers then beat up on a good or great one.

[moonslav59]

The Cubs have scored more runs than anyone else, and it helped thhem to the 7th best record in MLB (one ahead of PHI and 3 ahead of BOS.)

They've scored 6 runs in their last 3 games. Are they toast?

They scored 23 runs one game, then 1 in the next two games combined.

Isn't baseball the best game in the world?

[NHNative]

I think the guys are going to rally again and all that talent will manifest.

[mvp 78]

59 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

And if they have to, they'll just smallball their way to the World Series. Like last night, when Duran popped up a bunt... to third base.

It works for MIL in the playoffs every year. Why not us? 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Cubs have scored more runs than anyone else, and it helped thhem to the 7th best record in MLB (one ahead of PHI and 3 ahead of BOS.)

They've scored 6 runs in their last 3 games. Are they toast?

They scored 23 runs one game, then 1 in the next two games combined.

Isn't baseball the best game in the world?

The Cubs scored 160 more runs this season than the Sox. It's one of the most potent offenses in baseball. Unfortunately, they also have one of the most impotent pitching staffs in baseball. Probably won't work out for them this postseason. 

What's up with that last 3 game sample size though? Why are you always using such small samples, but going after other posters endlessly for whatever sample they use? 🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I shouldn't be posting this lest some Yankee spy reads it, but I've decoded the Red Sox' pre-preseason secrets. 

All month they're intentionally taking fastballs down the middle and flailing at sweepers out of the zone to completely confuse New York's pitching plans. 

Just watch what happens when the Pinstripes try to challenge the Socks with actual strikes next week. Bombers away! Until the next unlockout.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why are you always using such small samples, but going after other posters endlessly for whatever sample they use? 🤔

To mock you.