A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[moonslav59]

MLBTR came out with their top FA ranking list for this winter. I'm not seeing much beyond #3-4...

1. LHP Skubal (all but a long term Dodger)

2. 3B Teruaki Sato (Japan)

3. LHP Trevor Rogers (Maybe?)

4. OF Randy Arozarena/ 5. OF S Suzuki   (I doubt we add an OF'er, even if we trade Duran.)

6. RHP Freddy Peralta (Nope)

7. RHP Michael King (Nope)

8. C Ryan Jeffers (He could back up AR and DH, but I doubt we go this route.)

9. LHP Adrian Morejon (RP would be a nice add.)

10. 2B Brandon Lowe (I wanted him last winter, but we have Mead and maybe Story at 2B.)

Gray has an option, and he's not listed in the top 10.

Honorable mentions: Nick Martinez, Bichette, Chisholm, Gausman, Arraez, Bauers, Bednar, Mize, Griffin, Imanaga...

[mvp 78]

Suzuki could be a good add. The Sox need to figure out what to do with Duran, Story and Masa. They may continue to just try and run out the clock with those contracts. 😶

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Suzuki could be a good add. The Sox need to figure out what to do with Duran, Story and Masa. They may continue to just try and run out the clock with those contracts. 😶

The DH slot is in major flux, and even if we trade Duran, we'd have 3 OF'ers, so addin Suzuki would puch Anthony to DH.

I'm looking at DH and seeing Mead or Story there, with Arias at SS.

Then I see platoon possibilities with Romy or Jones vs LHPs and Gasper or Duran/Mead/Story v RHPs.

I'd love to replace Duran with Suzuki, but replacing or bringing back Gray is #1. Adding pitching depth is #2. Adding a LHB is a distant #3-4-5.

 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The DH slot is in major flux, and even if we trade Duran, we'd have 3 OF'ers, so addin Suzuki would puch Anthony to DH.

I'm looking at DH and seeing Mead or Story there, with Arias at SS.

Then I see platoon possibilities with Romy or Jones vs LHPs and Gasper or Duran/Mead/Story v RHPs.

I'd love to replace Duran with Suzuki, but replacing or bringing back Gray is #1. Adding pitching depth is #2. Adding a LHB is a distant #3-4-5.

To me, the offense needs another addition. The offense is 20th in runs. Swapping Duran for Suzuki makes sense to me.

I don't necessarily trust Mead with a fulltime role. He hasn't shown it over the course of his career. 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

To me, the offense needs another addition. The offense is 20th in runs. Swapping Duran for Suzuki makes sense to me.

I don't necessarily trust Mead with a fulltime role. He hasn't shown it over the course of his career. 

I can see why trust in Mead is sketchy, but I think he has a better 2027 at bat than Suzuki.

Certainly, Suzuki is way more proven.

I'm not against adding a bat. I'm not sure what the budget will be, and we've used up a lot of young trade capital, recently, so I'm not clear about how we add 3-4 quality players, this winter. Maybe 1-2 by signing and one by trading from bottlenecked positions, but OF seems too far down my list. A big bat might be #3 or #4, and DH is an area we can upgrade, so OF could fill that. I won't be crushed we have to lose Duran plus out of options White or Jones, but to me it's just not a high enough priority to make Suzuki the number one add.

My #1 Gray or Nick Martinez/Rogers?

My #2 Morejon?

My #3 will not be an expensive FA or a trade guy needing a major return to acquire.

I'm not even sure there is a #4, unless it's at the minor league depth level.

Last winter, Brez made a bunch of moves to clear up roster space- some were vets for prospects, some were prospects for prospects and some were 2 or 3 for 1-2-3 type deals. THis winter, I can see us trading 1 or two from these groups of players/prospects:

OF: Duran, White, Eaton, Ward or maybe Jones. (I think we keep Jones as our next Refsnyder.) Castro or  Bleis will not bring anything back in trade. We probably keep KC as OF depth on the farm. (I doubt we trade Story.)

C: Wong or Gasper/Jo Garcia

1B: Casas or Brannon/Gasper

Inf: Romy, Monasterio, Seigler, Cheng, Romero/Rodgers/Cespedes or maybe Sogard for an even better return.

DH: Yoshida/Duran, Romy/Jones or Gasper/Brannon/Jo Garcia 

I can't see us trading pitchers, unless we get pitchers in return. It's easy to suggest trading Holobetz, Paez & Ziehl for a ML starter, but that's a pipedream.

[moonslav59]

So many players could be in consideration for a significant portion of the DH role, next year. I'm not really sure Brez will be looking to add someone who would DH a lot or push another current starter to DH alot- like Anthony, Mead or Story.

Here are some splits:

Last 3 years/2026

vs RHP

.840/.757 Anthony OF  (Okay FT)

.683/.816 Mead 1B/2B (Fine FT)

.777/.743 Yoshida OF (Platoon only)

.762/.928 Gasper 1B/C (Platoon only)

 

.720/.625 Story 2B/SS (not ideal)

.800/.623 Duran OF (No trust from me)

____________________

Nope:

.667/.713 Sogard 3B/1B/2B/SS

.669/.875 White OF

.677/.784 Seigler 2B/3B

_____________________

Never:

 

.610 Monasterio 2B/3B/SS

.637/.517 Romy 1B/2B

.504/.667 Jones OF__________________

________________________________

vs LHP

.892/.618 Romy 1B/2B (Platoon only)

.854/1.113 Jones OF (PLatoon only)

.757/.897 Mead (okay FT)

.865 Casas (no trust) Reverse splits but career .796/.814

 

.707/.705 Story 2B/SS (Possible platoon)

.696/.596 Anthony OF (Platoon v R only?

.791/.799 Sogard Inf (I think we have better)

 

.743/.797 Monasterio Inf (Not likely)

___________________

Nope:

.720/.382 White OF

.591/.774 Yoshida OF

.633/.631 Duran OF

____________________

Never:

.549/.549 Seigler Inf

.393/.247 Gasper 1B/C

Between the FT options (Anthony & Mead) and some sort of platoon, I think we have DH all set. 

Best platoons?

Yoshida- Romy

Gasper-Jones

Duran-Story

Big assumption, but I'm going with Arias at SS and Story/Mead at 2B and Mead/Duran-Anthony at DH. (Mead can give Contreras a rest at 1B and Story can give Arias time off at SS) If Duran is gone, Anthony is FT LF and maybe we see Story/Mead 2B and Yoshida/Mead at DH.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Mead 2B/DH

3. L Abreu RF 

4. R Contreras 1B

5.  S Rutschman C

6. L Yoshida or S Gasper DH/ R Romy or Story 2B or Jones DH

7. R Durbin 3B

8. R Rafaela CF

9. R Arias SS

 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR came out with their top FA ranking list for this winter. I'm not seeing much beyond #3-4...

We'll need an SP more than anything else.  I'd put a very steep offer out there for Skubal.  Make the LAD or NY teams feel at least a little pain.  But I'd be fine just keeping Gray.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

This is sensible, and great for us if we still manage to get the last one in Saturday with the weather.

[Hitch]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We'll need an SP more than anything else.  I'd put a very steep offer out there for Skubal.  Make the LAD or NY teams feel at least a little pain.  But I'd be fine just keeping Gray.

We do need pitching, but we also need more in the line up. Our offense hasn't been good enough for far too often this year. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We'll need an SP more than anything else.  I'd put a very steep offer out there for Skubal.  Make the LAD or NY teams feel at least a little pain.  But I'd be fine just keeping Gray.

I have to think Gray enjoyed this season with a playoff team. There is no way to know for sure, or to know how much returning to BOS means to Sonny. Maybe we can lock him up before he reaches free agency. that might take a 2-3 year deal (2 with a hefty buy out on a 3rd year might be enough.)

Trevor Rogers? He's 28 and will get a mega deal.

To me, Nick Martinez at age 36 might be the only other starter Brez could be allowed to sign.

Morejon for the pen would be great, and maybe we sign him and then try to stockpile rotation depth, but we'd be relying on Oviedo, Crawford and Houck to be the 5-6-7s.

1. Tolle

2. Suarez

3. Bennett

4. Bello

Too risky for my liking.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

We do need pitching, but we also need more in the line up. Our offense hasn't been good enough for far too often this year. 

While I agree, I think Mead will provide a big boost. Full seasons from Anthony, Story & AR could help a lot, too, but of course someone will get hurt.

We do have nice depth. Assume these are the starters:

C AR

1B Contreras

2B: Story

SS: Arias

3B: Durbin

LF Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH Mead

The bench would be...

C: Gasper/Wong

1B: Romy/Gasper/Casas (Mead)

2B: Seigler, Rodgers (Mead/Sogard)

SS: Sogard, Cheng (Story/Monasterio)

3B: Monasterio, Romero

LF: Duran, Jones (Yoshida)

CF: White, Ward (Duran)

RF: Campbell (White/Ward/Gonzales)

DH: Yoshida, Brannon, Jo Garcia (KC)

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Suzuki could be a good add. The Sox need to figure out what to do with Duran, Story and Masa. They may continue to just try and run out the clock with those contracts. 😶

I think we're okay without any of them.  But if we can't find an off-ramp, I'd run out the clock and wait for a 2028 position, as needed.

That said, if Gray leaves, my preference would be to Forego any marginal improvements and go after Skubal.  Go with all our current position players, and SPs, and BP, and just add Skubal.

[Hitch]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While I agree, I think Mead will provide a big boost. Full seasons from Anthony, Story & AR could help a lot, too, but of course someone will get hurt.

We do have nice depth. Assume these are the starters:

C AR

1B Contreras

2B: Story

SS: Arias

3B: Durbin

LF Anthony

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH Mead

The bench would be...

C: Gasper/Wong

1B: Romy/Gasper/Casas (Mead)

2B: Seigler, Rodgers (Mead/Sogard)

SS: Sogard, Cheng (Story/Monasterio)

3B: Monasterio, Romero

LF: Duran, Jones (Yoshida)

CF: White, Ward (Duran)

RF: Campbell (White/Ward/Gonzales)

DH: Yoshida, Brannon, Jo Garcia (KC)

That looks weak to me. Are any of those depth players out of options?

I'd like to see Duran traded for pitching depth and then hopefully, we find a decent bat. 

I like the look of Mead and if he's real it'll help a great deal, but it would be dangerous to rely on that right now.

[JoeBrady]

36 minutes ago, Hitch said:

We do need pitching, but we also need more in the line up. Our offense hasn't been good enough for far too often this year. 

Since the ASB, which is a decent-sized sample, we are 4th in OPS, 6th in HRs, 5th in runs, and 4th/6th in the OBP/SLG split.  If we add Arozarena to replace Yoshida, it doesn't feel like the marginal offensive gain is worth the contract.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Since the ASB, which is a decent-sized sample, we are 4th in OPS, 6th in HRs, 5th in runs, and 4th/6th in the OBP/SLG split.  If we add Arozarena to replace Yoshida, it doesn't feel like the marginal offensive gain is worth the contract.

Those rankings are meaningless to me if they have no OPS, HRs and runs in the postseason vs. quality pitching.

That's why I'd sign a proven playoff performer like Arozarena next year (or the next 3 on a contract), especially if he averages 100 runs and 27 homers like the past 2.

And I'd take him over Skubal, a proven quitter on his WBC teammates, who he left to protect his kajillion-dollar arm. 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Hitch said:

That looks weak to me. Are any of those depth players out of options?

I'd like to see Duran traded for pitching depth and then hopefully, we find a decent bat. 

I like the look of Mead and if he's real it'll help a great deal, but it would be dangerous to rely on that right now.

White and Jones are the only "bubble players" without options. Mead, Story & Contreras are the other everyday players without options.

To me, the bench is about as solid as any team can be.

When I look at the starting 9, it looks solid. It does lack star power and is kinda heavy on RHBs. The stronger platoon bats on the bench are mostly RHBs, too (Romy & Jones, but Gasper & Duran offer some hope vs RHPs.)

I'm certainly not against adding a major bat. I'm just trying to be realistic about just how much budget space Brez will be given this winter, and am feeling like what we have left to trade is not good enough to being a star power player back. Now, we could trade one of our starting nine, add a player/prospects or two and hope for a decent upgrade, but 3 for 1 trades are not as easy as they look.

If the idea is to make a solid boost to the offense, it makes sense to look at our weakest offensive positions.

Not 1B (Contreras), RF (Abreu) or LF (Anthony)

I doubt middle infield (Mead, Story & Arias plus a bench that can hit okay)

That leaves C (Rustchman, who we just gave up 2 arms and a leg to get) CF (Rafaela- our 1 and 2 year WAR leader) and DH (Where we pay Yoshida $18M and have Anthony to DH, if Duran plays LF or Mead to DH, if Arias and Story are the middle infielders.)

Which one do you upgrade?

Catchers are very expensive (see what 1.3 years of AR costs)

CF'ers are not a dime a dozen, but many teams would gladly trade a big bat for Rafaela plus decent add-ons. 

DH seems easiest, especially if we can dump Yoshida, Story & Duran. That would make Anthony the LF'er. Arias the SS, Mead the 2Bman and still leave us with decent depth for everyone.

We'd get nothing but maybe $3-5M salary relief for Yoshida. That's fine.

We'd get nothing but $4-7M salary relief for Story, if we find a taker.

We can just non tender Duran and save his estimated $7-9M arb cost- or sign and trade him for scraps.

Let's assume we can trade all 3 and get nothing of value in return, except maybe $16-19M added budget space. That could be enough to allow us to make 2 significant signings and one trade:

SP (Gray)

Bat ______ (Rafaela + Duran + ______ for __________)

RP (Morejon)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Since the ASB, which is a decent-sized sample, we are 4th in OPS, 6th in HRs, 5th in runs, and 4th/6th in the OBP/SLG split.  If we add Arozarena to replace Yoshida, it doesn't feel like the marginal offensive gain is worth the contract.

I agree.

There is no Schwarber or Alonso, this year.

To get a major upgrade on O, it would have to be a trade. We've already traded as much youth (or more) than I'm comfortable with, so it would have to 2 starters for one upgrade and then rely on bench pieces to not be big drop offs that wipe out the projected gain.

We won't get anything for Yoshida, Duran and or Story, but 1 from from Mead or Arias plus one from Anthony, Abreu or Rafaela would. Is that what anyone wants?

We'd be relying on Duran (Jones/White) and Story Seigler/Monasterio) to make up for the two losses.

Looks like one step up and two steps back.

Wanna trade Primera or Gonzales, instead?

I doubt one of the 4 vets plus Valera gets us a stud, unless it's Abreu or Anthony we trade.

[NHNative]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

White and Jones are the only "bubble players" without options. Mead, Story & Contreras are the other everyday players without options.

To me, the bench is about as solid as any team can be.

When I look at the starting 9, it looks solid. It does lack star power and is kinda heavy on RHBs. The stronger platoon bats on the bench are mostly RHBs, too (Romy & Jones, but Gasper & Duran offer some hope vs RHPs.)

I'm certainly not against adding a major bat. I'm just trying to be realistic about just how much budget space Brez will be given this winter, and am feeling like what we have left to trade is not good enough to being a star power player back. Now, we could trade one of our starting nine, add a player/prospects or two and hope for a decent upgrade, but 3 for 1 trades are not as easy as they look.

If the idea is to make a solid boost to the offense, it makes sense to look at our weakest offensive positions.

Not 1B (Contreras), RF (Abreu) or LF (Anthony)

I doubt middle infield (Mead, Story & Arias plus a bench that can hit okay)

That leaves C (Rustchman, who we just gave up 2 arms and a leg to get) CF (Rafaela- our 1 and 2 year WAR leader) and DH (Where we pay Yoshida $18M and have Anthony to DH, if Duran plays LF or Mead to DH, if Arias and Story are the middle infielders.)

Which one do you upgrade?

Catchers are very expensive (see what 1.3 years of AR costs)

CF'ers are not a dime a dozen, but many teams would gladly trade a big bat for Rafaela plus decent add-ons. 

DH seems easiest, especially if we can dump Yoshida, Story & Duran. That would make Anthony the LF'er. Arias the SS, Mead the 2Bman and still leave us with decent depth for everyone.

We'd get nothing but maybe $3-5M salary relief for Yoshida. That's fine.

We'd get nothing but $4-7M salary relief for Story, if we find a taker.

We can just non tender Duran and save his estimated $7-9M arb cost- or sign and trade him for scraps.

Let's assume we can trade all 3 and get nothing of value in return, except maybe $16-19M added budget space. That could be enough to allow us to make 2 significant signings and one trade:

SP (Gray)

Bat ______ (Rafaela + Duran + ______ for __________)

RP (Morejon)

I agree in thinking as things are, we have a really good workable bench and pen.

This can work.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I agree in thinking as things are, we have a really good workable bench and pen.

This can work.

I want to be clear though. We won't have a great offense, unless we don't have hardly any injuries and almost everyone gels in the same season. That's more hope than good strategy, but I'm thinking our pitching and defense should be good enough to carry a #6-12 offense to a ring.

Part of passing on getting a big bat is based on bringing Gray back or maybe signing Nick Martinez and Morejon over signing a big bat and one decent arm.

[NHNative]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I want to be clear though. We won't have a great offense, unless we have hardly any injuries and almost everyone gels in the same season. That's more hope than good strategy, but I'm thinking our pitching and defense should be good enough to carry a #6-12 offense to a ring.

Part of passing on getting a big bat is based on bringing Gray back or maybe signing Nick Martinez and Morejon over signing a big bat and one decent arm.

I reckon I am an old guy who has gotten a tad sentimental. The winning streak, which was colossal, was with these guys. On the human level, there is a real mutual trust built over that kind of success.

[moonslav59]

Looking at ages and recent trends, could we expect these 2027 OPS?

.850 Contreras (down from .905 for the 35 y/o)

.800 Abreu (up from .785 for the in-prime 28 yr-old)

.800 Mead (26 y/o who hit .850 this half year.)

.800 Anthony (23 y/o with a .792 career OPS)

.760 Rafaela (staying the same at age 26 seems okay)

.750 Rutschman (will be 29 and hitting .737 now)

.750 Yoshida (will be 33 and is near his numbers now)

.735 Sogard (29 and the same)

.730 Seigler (28 and the same)

.700 Story (34 and has a .714 OPS ince 2025 & .705 w BOS)

Duran, Gasper, Wong, Jones, Romy, Monasterio & others are too hard to project.

 

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I reckon I am an old guy who has gotten a tad sentimental. The winning streak, which was colossal, was with these guys. On the human level, there is a real mutual trust built over that kind of success.

I get it. Many of the guys helping in that streak weren't really playing much or at all before the streak.

I also view the returning IL pitchers in a much better light than I did Sandoval, Buehler, Giolito, Hendriks, Paxton, Kluber, Richards and okay guys like Wacha and Hill.

[NHNative]

And Tolle has been operating on raw talent and youthful energy. That will morph into a well tuned game over time. Just getting started.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, NHNative said:

I reckon I am an old guy who has gotten a tad sentimental. The winning streak, which was colossal, was with these guys. On the human level, there is a real mutual trust built over that kind of success.

Before the streak....

Crochet still had more IP than Bennett.

Early was second in IP.

Watson was 6th on the team in IP.

Samaniego (20) Coulombe (18) Kelly (16) Anderson (8) and Kahnle (7) had more combined IP than Whitlock (25) , Chapman (22) and Guerrero (13) combined.

Mayer (224) Yoshida (169) Narvaez (145) were top 9 in PAs.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That's why I'd sign a proven playoff performer like Arozarena next year

Arozarena has a .574 OPS in the playoffs since 2021.  Signing a FA, in the hopes of a good playoff, doesn't sound feasible to me.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Arozarena has a .574 OPS in the playoffs since 2021.  Signing a FA, in the hopes of a good playoff, doesn't sound feasible to me.

Does Pablito ring a bell?

Hey, Yoshida and Story- two guys many of us want traded did well in the playoffs!

[notin]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Suzuki could be a good add. The Sox need to figure out what to do with Duran, Story and Masa. They may continue to just try and run out the clock with those contracts. 😶

Story and Masa likely just finish out their deals.   Story’s short contract and long injury history are tailor-made for breaking in Arias.

Duran is the only question.  They tried to move him last year, with no such luck.  Duran then went and did absolutely nothing to make himself more appealing trade bait.  How hard will he be to move this off-season? I seriously doubt they just non-tender him…