A Realistic View at the 2026 Red Sox Part II

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/15/2026 at 7:56 PM, moonslav59 said:

The 2026 Sox All IL, DFA'd, Traded Away & AAA Team:

SP: Crochet, Early, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Uberstine

RP: Slaten, Guerrero, Watson, Coulombe, Kelly, Samaniego, Rivera

C: Narvaez & Rodgers

1B: Casas

2B: Mead & Rodgers

3B: Seigler & Mayer 

SS: Arias & Cheng

LF: Yoshida

CF: Rafaela

RF: Ward

DH: Romy

 

 

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox vs RHPs: (2024-2026 added)

.919 Gasper (.766)

.878 Contreras (.824)

.875 White (35 ABs)

.790 Rutschman (.682)

.784 Seigler (.677)

.765 Anthony (.842)

.748 Abreu (.791)

.746 Rafaela (.717)

.743 Yoshida (.777)

.733 Sogard (.680)

.727 IKF (.701)

.721 Durbin (.717)

.624 Duran (.798)

.624 Wong (.641)

.616 Monasterio (.630)

.611 Story (.718)

.517 Romy (30 PAs) .637 '24-'26

__________________________________

v LHPs

1.203 Jones (.867)

.981 Contreras (.912)

.871 Abreu (.762)

.801 Rafaela (.694)

.798 Monasterio (.743)

.774 Yoshida (.591)

.766 Sogard (.774)

.737 Durbin (.728)

.732 Wong (.775)

,705 Story (.707)

.631 Duran (.633)

.618 Romy (.892)

.596 Anthony (.703)

.550 Seigler (.592)

.459 IKF (.548)

.382 White (23 ABs) .720

.247 Gasper (23) .393

.154 Rutschman (26) .755

____________________

Some conclusions:

Should never start vs 

RHPs: Romy, Monasterio, Wong 

LHPs: Gasper, Duran and maybe Seigler.

Should start vs

RHPs: Contreras, Gapser, Abreu, Anthony, Rutschman, Rafaela (Yoshida, White & Sogard)

LHPs: Contreras, Jones, Abreu, Rafaela, Durbin, Romy, Monasterio (Story, Sogard & Wong)

Suggested platoon possibilities:

DH: Gasper-Jones/Romy (but we have Yoshida and Duran)

2B: Sogard-Monasterio/Romy (but we have Mead)

C: AR & Wong

My goodness!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

He's a Schlit Head.

Ya, get over the fact Boston didn't draft you in 2022, Cam. Why not hate the Yankees for picking four other pitchers before you in the 7th round. A few other teams chose 219 guys before you, Cam. Why not change your jersey number to 220 so you can constantly carry that angst.

The Red Sox picked Roman Anthony 79th overall that year. Don't see him complaining that they selected two other high school kids before him.

[moonslav59]

ERAs Last 30 Days

2.70 Suarez (30 IP)

2.74 Tolle (23 IP)

2.96 Gray (24.1 IP)

3.75 Bello (24.0 IP)

_________________

1.25 Chapman + Whitlock + Weissert + Gamboa + Olds (36.1 IP combined)

___________________

These 9 pitchers combined for 137.2 IP and an ERA of 2.55. (2.30 w/o Bello)

 

[moonslav59]

Last winter, we had several players that ended the season on the IL, or who barely returned to some action near the end of the season.

We knew Houck would miss all or almost all of 2026, but others were expected back. Sandoval was known to be out for a few months and a couple others were big question marks. Crawford even managed to get a new injury before the other one was heeled.

Here is a look at this year's IL crew, in terms of 2027 expectations.

Casas: all bets should be off with a total write off likely the best odds bet.

Slaten always seems hurt or about to get hurt. He's got some scary stuff going on in his right elbow with "flexor mass degeneration." Maybe count him out for some or much of 2027.

Kelly was throwing, and Rivera hasn't pitched since mid August. No biggies on these two- make it or not.

Oviedo is apparently healthy. He's had some upside potential for a while, and Brez hoped he'd come through this year, but the flexor strain had other ideas. He should be ready for ST'ing.

Crawford was all set to start Woo's finale, but the game was cancelled. I suppose we should think he's healthy, and he has the whole summer to prepare for ST'ing. Guessing his expectations is just that- a guess.  Here is a guy who led the staff in IP a couple years ago and showed some serious promise. Now, he's like a coin toss, but with perhaps that same serious upside.

Crochet might be the most important returnee or replapsee. He's been throwing and may actually be ML ready, soon, so his return depends on no setbacks or mess-ups.

Houck might be one of the most likely to succeed, but maybe as a RP'er would improve those odds.

Mead is second to Crochet in potential to make a major impact, IMO. Like Crawford, he was supposed to start with Woo, today, so he should be ready for ST'ing.

Rafaela, Contreras, Seigler, White and Yoshida should be healthy by Spring. We kinda know what they bring to the table, assuming no injury affects.

Not counting Chapman, Rafaela and Contreras, this list is 12 men long. Maybe don't count Casas, Kelly and Rivera and it's 9.

I've spoken about my opinion that there should not really be a 40 man roster crunch, but with some out of options players the 26 man cut off could get problematic.

I'm going to assume Gray is a FA. He might come back, but for now, I'll count him out. Sandoval and IKF will be FAs. With all the 60 Day IL players coming back, it seems like a crunch is looming, but here is my breakdown:

Solid Roster Players:

SP: Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Paez

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Moran, Gamboa, Olds

C: Rutschman, Wong

1B: Contreras, Gasper, Romy

2B: Story, Seigler

SS: Arias, Monasterio

3B: Durbin, Seigler

LF: Anthony, White

CF: Rafaela, Eaton

RF: Abreu, Campbell

DH: Mead, Yoshida, Jones

That's 37.

We probably add a SP (Gray?,) a RP'er and a LHB. My guess is Duran might be back at #40 as that LHB.

Bubble/Trade: Duran, Samaniego, Cheng, Rivera, Burgos, Kelly, Casas

Rule 5 might be: Brannon (1B/DH/C3) and/or Jo Garcia (DH/1B/C3) but we already have Gasper. Maybe we trade 2 of the 3. I think we'll add Wehunt, but not Ward, Romero or Rodgers. Keeping Wehunt means Duran or someone else is traded.

 

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Last winter, we had several players that ended the season on the IL, or who barely returned to some action near the end of the season.

We knew Houck would miss all or almost all of 2026, but others were expected back. Sandoval was known to be out for a few months and a couple others were big question marks. Crawford even managed to get a new injury before the other one was heeled.

Here is a look at this year's IL crew, in terms of 2027 expectations.

Casas: all bets should be off with a total write off likely the best odds bet.

Slaten always seems hurt or about to get hurt. He's got some scary stuff going on in his right elbow with "flexor mass degeneration." Maybe count him out for some or much of 2027.

Kelly was throwing, and Rivera hasn't pitched since mid August. No biggies on these two- make it or not.

Oviedo is apparently healthy. He's had some upside potential for a while, and Brez hoped he'd come through this year, but the flexor strain had other ideas. He should be ready for ST'ing.

Crawford was all set to start Woo's finale, but the game was cancelled. I suppose we should think he's healthy, and he has the whole summer to prepare for ST'ing. Guessing his expectations is just that- a guess.  Here is a guy who led the staff in IP a couple years ago and showed some serious promise. Now, he's like a coin toss, but with perhaps that same serious upside.

Crochet might be the most important returnee or replapsee. He's been throwing and may actually be ML ready, soon, so his return depends on no setbacks or mess-ups.

Houck might be one of the most likely to succeed, but maybe as a RP'er would improve those odds.

Mead is second to Crochet in potential to make a major impact, IMO. Like Crawford, he was supposed to start with Woo, today, so he should be ready for ST'ing.

Rafaela, Contreras, Seigler, White and Yoshida should be healthy by Spring. We kinda know what they bring to the table, assuming no injury affects.

Not counting Chapman, Rafaela and Contreras, this list is 12 men long. Maybe don't count Casas, Kelly and Rivera and it's 9.

I've spoken about my opinion that there should not really be a 40 man roster crunch, but with some out of options players the 26 man cut off could get problematic.

I'm going to assume Gray is a FA. He might come back, but for now, I'll count him out. Sandoval and IKF will be FAs. With all the 60 Day IL players coming back, it seems like a crunch is looming, but here is my breakdown:

Solid Roster Players:

SP: Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Paez

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Moran, Gamboa, Olds

C: Rutschman, Wong

1B: Contreras, Gasper, Romy

2B: Story, Seigler

SS: Arias, Monasterio

3B: Durbin, Seigler

LF: Anthony, White

CF: Rafaela, Eaton

RF: Abreu, Campbell

DH: Yoshida, Jones

That's 36.

We probably add a SP (Gray?,) a RP'er and a LHB. My guess is Duran might be back at #40.

Bubble/Trade: Duran, Samaniego, Cheng, Rivera, Burgos, Kelly, Casas

Rule 5 might be: Brannon (1B/DH/C3) and/or Jo Garcia (DH/1B/C3) but we already have Gasper. Maybe we trade 2 of the 3. I think we'll add Wehunt, but not Ward, Romero or Rodgers. Keeping Wehunt means Duran or someone else is traded.

 

 

[UtahSox]

Just now, UtahSox said:

Solid Roster Players:

SP: Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Paez

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Moran, Gamboa, Olds

C: Rutschman, Wong

1B: Contreras, Gasper, Romy

2B: Story, Seigler

SS: Arias, Monasterio

3B: Durbin, Seigler

LF: Anthony, White

CF: Rafaela, Eaton

RF: Abreu, Campbell

DH: Yoshida, Jones

That's 36.

Mead?

[moonslav59]

15 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Mead?

I had him listed, then went back to edit (move him to DH with Story at 2B,) but forgot to add him. I went back and adjusted.

 

Thanks.